Pre-Market Session • 08:30 ET • $2.6B Total Volume
📈 Top Gainers by $ Volume
NVDA+3.33%$275M
SPCX+0.73%$239M
SOFI+9.92%$210M
INTC+5.84%$193M
SKHY+7.49%$176M
QXO+0.95%$148M
CRWV+5.48%$69M
IREN+3.71%$48M
NOK+7.25%$17M
HOS+2.32%$15M
📉 Top Losers by $ Volume
META-2.21%$1.0B
BA-0.65%$80M
PYPL-3.13%$63M
CRCL-6.52%$30M
BMNR-5.92%$24M
AGBK-36.68%$16M
NU-16.06%$14M
XP-47.58%$7M
AZUL-25.46%$4M
BBD-26.90%$1M
🐷 PIG ROAST
LITE+8.2%MarketWatch: Optical stocks got their comeback moment and Lumentum led the whole index higher. Up 385.5% over the past year, this one stopped being a laser maker and became a lottery ticket.
CART+7.9%Fox Business: DoorDash reportedly wants Instacart for roughly $17B, so the grocery app that delivers your snacks may soon be delivered itself. Up 38.6% this year and still shopping.
RRC+17.7%Motley Fool: EQT showed up with an all-stock offer and shareholders stopped caring about tomorrow's earnings, where analysts expect $0.76. Nothing beats a buyout as a pre-earnings hype man.
SGRY+47.6%Business Wire: Up 47.6% in a day while a law firm shops for fraud plaintiffs. Rarely do shareholders and litigators celebrate the same company on the same afternoon.
FIX+7.2%Zacks: A $17.81B backlog and a confident 2027 outlook got the air conditioning guys a 7.2% pop. Still sitting 40% below its highs, so plenty of cooling left.
NU-16.9%Motley Fool: Brazil's election surprise wrecked the digital bank, down 16.9% today and down 26.0% this year. Turns out no app has a feature for political risk.
MELI-7.8%Motley Fool: Latin America's e-commerce king caught the Brazil contagion, down 7.8% today and down 15.4% this year. The dip buyers are circling, the profits are not.
PBR-14.0%Seeking Alpha: Lula wins, Petrobras loses 14.0% in a day. Still up 99.6% this year, so holders can afford a little political heartburn with their dividends.
XP-48.4%DefenseWorld: Hit a 52-week high this month, cratered 48.4% today. Brazil's broker went from victory lap to crime scene in about two weeks flat.
FICO-13.2%Barrons: Holding mortgage scores at $10 while competitors undercut them cost shareholders another 13.2%. Down 57.0% this year, the credit scorer badly needs a credit score.
🌤️ MARKET WEATHER
Presidential Cycle: Year 2 (2nd Term Year 2) •
Donald Trump (R)
Year two of a second term rarely runs this hot.
SPY is up 12.0% YTD, 10.7 points above the second-term Year 2 average of roughly 3.5%, and 4.0 above the 20-year seasonal path. QQQ's 16.3% sits 15.4 ahead of cycle norms. With 206 of 251 days logged, history adds another 1.5% by mid-March.
Get The Edge before the market opens. Subscribe free.
SPY
12.0% YTD
2026 Actual
2nd Term Year 2 Avg
Year 2 Projection
vs 2nd Term Year 2:+10.7%
vs 20yr Seasonal:+4.0%
Day:206 / 252
QQQ
16.3% YTD
2026 Actual
2nd Term Year 2 Avg
Year 2 Projection
vs 2nd Term Year 2:+15.4%
vs 20yr Seasonal:+2.6%
Day:206 / 252
📊 2nd Term Year 2 years historically average
3.5% for SPY.
Current YTD: 12.0%
🎯 SMART MONEY CONVERGENCE
Thirty convergence signals, zero distribution, and a tape that disagrees.
Republic Services, Inc. (RSG) leads the board: 107 insider buy filings totaling $1,582.7M, 1,116 funds increased positions over 30 days, and 2 congressional members disclosing purchases. Lennar Corporation (LEN) carries the same triple stamp with 45 filings worth $595.3M and 806 funds adding, against a 1Y price of -32.6% and a 5D bounce of +10.7%. Garbage and homebuilding are not the glamour trade. They are where the filings cluster.
The financials group reads differently. Blackstone Inc. (BX) pairs 12 insider buy filings totaling $28.0M and 1,123 funds increasing with a +11.2% five-day move and a 1Y of -22.5%, so buyers were early to a stock that is only now firming. Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) is the mirror image: 4 filings worth $57.6M, 1,166 funds adding, and price still slipping, down 3.8% on the week and 30.9% over a year. One is conviction meeting a rally. The other is conviction meeting a falling knife.
Congressional disclosures concentrate elsewhere. PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) shows 12 members purchasing alongside 1,724 funds increasing positions, Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) shows 11 members with 1,473 funds, and Intel Corp. (INTC) shows 10 members with 2,111 funds adding after a 137.1% year. Defensive staples and a semiconductor recovery story, bought by the same cohort. The balance tilts one way today: 30 accumulation signals, none on the distribution side, even as $479.5M net flowed out at the index level.
Buying Rising Buying the Dip Confirmed Exit Selling into Strength
😱 VOLATILITY & FEAR
Volatility is calm at the surface, coiled just underneath.
VIX sits at 19.45, down 2.7% on the week and still inside the normal band, though it's parked near the upper edge of that range. MOVE at 102.19 says the bond market isn't pricing drama either. Neither index is signaling complacency or stress, just a market with little margin for surprise.
VIX
19.45
-2.7% WoW
📈
Normal
MOVE
102.19
0.0% WoW
➡️
Normal
📊 MARKET REGIME
Defense is leading, semis are lagging, and transports aren't confirming.
Healthcare (90.00%), Utilities (87.10%) and Consumer Staples (81.80%) sit at the top while Semiconductors (16.00%) and Communication (31.80%) trail badly. SPY breadth reads 62.20% against QQQ at 52.50%, with transports at 32%. Defensive leadership, cyclical hesitation.
Sector Strength
🏥 Healthcare
90.0%
+2.1%
⚡ Utilities
87.1%
+2.9%
🛒 Consumer Staples
81.8%
+0.9%
⛽ Energy
81.0%
+2.7%
🧱 Materials
66.7%
+0.9%
🛍️ Consumer Discretionary
63.8%
-0.2%
🏭 Industrials
54.2%
+0.2%
🏦 Financials
52.6%
+1.8%
💻 Technology
48.0%
+0.2%
🏠 Real Estate
43.3%
+2.7%
📡 Communication
31.8%
-5.7%
🔌 Semiconductors
16.0%
-1.2%
📈 INDEX BREADTH
SPY
62.2%
BULLISH
QQQ
52.5%
NEUTRAL
DIA
70.0%
BULLISH
IYT
31.8%
BEARISH
💧 FED LIQUIDITY
Net Liquidity: $6.75 Trillion
↓ $2.0B WoW
Liquidity is holding flat, which is neither a tailwind nor a threat.
Net liquidity sat at $6.75T as of October 21, down just $2.0B week over week, a rounding error against that base. Conditions stay supportive but passive, with no fresh fuel until the next H.4.1 release on Thursday, October 29.
📅 ECONOMIC CALENDAR
Surprise Index: -1.2
Factory data firmed, housing kept slipping, and the Fed speaks tomorrow.
Dallas Fed manufacturing hit 13.4 against 7.0 expected, its firmest reading in months, while the Chicago Fed index flipped to 0.07 from -0.08. Housing stayed soft: building permits fell 0.4% versus -0.2% expected. Today brings durable goods (1.5% est) and consumer confidence (81.0 est), then tomorrow's FOMC decision, with rates seen held at 4.0%.
Yesterday — Monday, October 26
2 events
· 2 beats
12:30Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Sep)
0.07
vs -0.1 est
14:30Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Oct)
13.4
vs 7.0 est
Today — Tuesday, October 27
9 events
· 1 miss
· 8 upcoming
12:00Building Permits MoM (Sep)
-0.4%
vs -0.2% est
12:30Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM (Sep)
est 0.0%
/ prev 0.1%
12:30Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM (Sep)
est 0.6%
/ prev 0.3%
12:30Durable Goods Orders MoM (Sep)
est 1.5%
/ prev 0.0%
13:00S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY (Aug)
est 2.5%
/ prev 2.5%
14:00New Home Sales MoM (Sep)
est -3.5%
/ prev 6.4%
14:00New Home Sales (Sep)
est 0.65M
/ prev 0.684M
14:00CB Consumer Confidence (Oct)
est 81.0
/ prev 81.9
14:30EIA Gasoline Stocks Change (Oct/23)
est -1.4
/ prev -2.952
18:00FOMC Statement
Pending
18:00Fed Interest Rate Decision
est 4.0%
/ prev 4.0%
18:30Press Conference
Pending
🏦 INSTITUTIONAL FLOW
Institutions are crowding both sides of the same semiconductor trade.
AVGO and INTC top the add and remove lists simultaneously (2,736 funds adding AVGO against 1,993 trimming), which is disagreement, not conviction. Software shows a cleaner tilt: 1,814 funds added INTU while 1,487 exited ADBE, even as semiconductors sit last on sector strength at 16.00%.
Capitol Hill is swapping megacap tech for dividends and regional banks.
Disclosed purchases included TSM (Rep. Cleo Fields) plus T and FITB (Rep. David Taylor), while Rep. Michael Rulli disclosed sales in GOOGL and WSBC. Taylor sat on both sides, adding telecom and bank exposure while reducing PG.
Group 1 Automotive drew 30 purchase filings, with Corebridge at 10 and PepsiCo at 4, a rare buy-side cluster. Distribution ran heavier in dollars: Talos Energy filings totaled $137.7M, Snowflake $111.0M, Travelers $64.0M, much of it likely pre-scheduled.
149 reports today, and the reactions are getting violent
CLS fell 18.0% and AMKR 12.1% yesterday, while KFRC jumped 16.6%. Today's tape shows accumulation signals in V and KO, distribution in HSBC and BA. Another 203 names report tomorrow, so positioning risk stays elevated into the back half of the week.
Smart money is sending mixed messages, and the cleanest read is that nobody agrees on semiconductors. AVGO and INTC sit atop both the add and remove lists at institutions, with 2,736 funds adding AVGO while 1,993 trimmed it, which is disagreement dressed up as activity. Software showed more direction: 1,814 funds added INTU while 1,487 exited ADBE. On Capitol Hill, the tilt ran away from megacap tech and toward income and regional banks. Rep. Cleo Fields disclosed a purchase in TSM, Rep. David Taylor disclosed buys in T and FITB while reducing PG, and Rep. Michael Rulli disclosed sales in GOOGL and WSBC. Insiders split by count versus dollars. Group 1 Automotive drew 30 purchase filings, Corebridge 10 and PepsiCo 4, a rare buy-side cluster, while the selling side carried the bigger checks: Talos Energy at $137.7M, Snowflake at $111.0M and Travelers at $64.0M, much of it likely pre-scheduled.
The backdrop remains unusually generous for this point in the cycle. SPY is up 12.0% year to date, 10.7 points above the roughly 3.5% average for year two of a second term and 4.0 above the 20-year seasonal path, while QQQ's 16.3% runs 15.4 ahead of cycle norms. With 206 of 251 days logged, history adds about another 1.5% by mid-March. Volatility is calm but not asleep: VIX at 19.45, down 2.7% on the week, sits near the upper edge of its normal band, and MOVE at 102.19 shows the bond market pricing no drama. Underneath, leadership is defensive. Healthcare at 90.00%, Utilities at 87.10% and Consumer Staples at 81.80% lead, while Semiconductors at 16.00% and Communication at 31.80% trail. SPY breadth of 62.20% against QQQ at 52.50% and transports at 32% says the cyclical side is not confirming.
The convergence worth tracking is between a tape registering 30 accumulation signals and zero distribution signals, led by Republic Services, Inc. (RSG), Lennar Corporation (LEN) and Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD), and a sector map where defense is doing the heavy lifting. Earnings reactions are turning violent: CLS fell 18.0% and AMKR 12.1% yesterday while KFRC jumped 16.6%, with 149 reports today showing accumulation in V and KO and distribution in HSBC and BA, and another 203 names tomorrow. Economic data is pulling in two directions, with Dallas Fed manufacturing at 13.4 against 7.0 expected and the Chicago Fed index flipping to 0.07 from -0.08, while building permits fell 0.4% versus -0.2% expected. Durable goods (1.5% estimate) and consumer confidence (81.0 estimate) land today, then the FOMC decision tomorrow with rates seen held at 4.0%.
Key themes: Watch convergence signals closely. Stocks where insiders, institutions, and politicians agree tend to show stronger directional moves.
acc • 
dist • 
neut