Know What They Know
🐷 PIG ROAST
💬 Word on the Street
While Rep. Robert E. Latta (R-OH) quietly added shares of Farmers & Merchants Bancorp (FMAO) to his portfolio, insiders at Celcuity Inc. (CELC) were heading for the exits with $317.8 million in coordinated sales—the kind of move that makes you wonder what they know that we don't. Meanwhile, Shopify Inc. (SHOP) rocketed 11.5% after hours as smart money logged a net $715.3 million outflow across the broader market, suggesting the big players are rotating, not retreating. Here's what smart money is doing today.
The Big Idea: When insiders, institutions, AND politicians all bet on the same stock? That's convergence — and historically, these aligned signals tend to pack more punch than solo moves. We track the smart money so you don't have to.
ETF Institutional funds adding/removing positions
INSIDER Corporate executives buying/selling their own stock
CONGRESS Politicians making trades (yes, we see you)
▲ + Buying Rising Stock: Smart money accumulating as price rises — ideal alignment
+ Buying Falling Stock: Smart money accumulating while price drops — falling knife risk
▲ - Selling Rising Stock: Smart money exiting while price still rising — warning signal
- Selling Falling Stock: Smart money exiting as price drops — confirms downtrend
The Bottom Line: Convergence + aligned momentum = strongest setups. Convergence + divergent momentum = proceed with caution. This isn't financial advice — it's intelligence. What you do with it is on you.
PSA
Public Storage
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
PANW
Palo Alto Networks, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
COR
Cencora, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
F
Ford Motor Company
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
HBAN
Huntington Bancshares Incorporated
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
MSTR
Strategy Inc
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
BR
Broadridge Financial Solutions, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
CSX
CSX Corporation
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
SARO
StandardAero, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
BA
The Boeing Company
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
The VIX equity volatility index stands at 18.58 after declining 1.0% week-over-week, positioning within the normal range that suggests neither complacency nor elevated fear among options traders. Bond market volatility remains subdued, with the MOVE index at 12.64 after a modest 0.5% weekly decline, indicating low uncertainty in fixed income markets. The modest downward movement in both indices reflects a marginal reduction in hedging costs across asset classes, though equity volatility remains above the sub-15 threshold that would signal potential complacency.
Market breadth shows a clear bifurcation, with traditional value sectors commanding leadership as Financials, Healthcare, and Energy demonstrate strength at 90%, 80%, and 76% respectively, while growth-oriented sectors lag significantly with Technology at 32% and Semiconductors at just 4%. The SPY's 63% breadth reading substantially outpaces the tech-heavy QQQ at 45%, reflecting this pronounced rotation away from growth stocks that dominated previous market regimes. This divergence between old economy and new economy sectors, combined with weakness in Consumer Discretionary at 40%, suggests institutional capital has repositioned toward defensive and cyclical value plays.
As of July 22, Fed net liquidity stands at $6.75 trillion, up $4.3 billion week-over-week, with the next H.4.1 release scheduled for Thursday, July 30. This modest increase in liquidity indicates the Fed continues to maintain accommodative financial conditions, which historically correlates with support for risk asset prices as more dollars chase available investments.
June durable goods orders missed expectations significantly at 0.3% versus the 2.5% forecast, though this represented a recovery from May's revised -4.0% decline, while the ex-transportation reading of 0.6% also fell short of the 0.8% estimate—suggesting business investment momentum remains sluggish even as the Dallas Fed manufacturing index unexpectedly turned positive at 1.3 versus expectations for -1.0, marking the first time since April the index has been in expansion territory. Attention now shifts to tomorrow's Federal Reserve decision where rates are expected to hold at 3.75%, with traders parsing Chair Powell's press conference for signals on the pace of future cuts given the mixed data flow, while today's consumer confidence reading will provide insight into household sentiment amid persistent inflation and tomorrow's crude oil inventory data could impact energy markets following API's report of a 2.603 million barrel build last week against current expectations for a 2.5 million barrel draw. The Economic Surprise Index remaining flat at +1.9 reflects data continuing to come in roughly in line with consensus, with neither significant positive nor negative momentum in recent surprises.
Exchange-traded funds demonstrated mixed positioning in semiconductor and technology infrastructure names during the period, with AVGO drawing additions from 9,635 ETFs against 5,507 reducing exposure, while LRCX and CSCO showed similar bifurcated flows at 8,097 versus 4,498 and 7,958 versus 4,298 respectively. The balanced 10-to-10 split in overall fund positioning suggests institutional managers are selectively rotating within the semiconductor equipment and enterprise networking space rather than making directional sector bets.
AVGO
Broadcom Inc.
⭐
LRCX
Lam Research Corporation
⭐
CSCO
Cisco Systems, Inc.
⭐
TXN
Texas Instruments Incorporated
⭐
PANW
Palo Alto Networks, Inc.
⭐
AVGO
Broadcom Inc.
⭐
LRCX
Lam Research Corporation
⭐
CSCO
Cisco Systems, Inc.
⭐
PANW
Palo Alto Networks, Inc.
⭐
INTU
Intuit Inc.
⭐
Congressional members made several notable transactions this period, with Rep. Latta purchasing FMAO, Rep. Dingell adding FMCC, and Rep. Newhouse taking a position in ANET. On the selling side, Rep. Sessions exited ARCC, Rep. Liccardo reduced NVDA holdings, and Rep. Himes sold HD, showing no clear sector pattern with activity spread across technology, financials, mortgage, and retail.
FMAO
Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
FMCC
Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation
⭐
CONGRESS
ANET
Arista Networks, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
FE
FirstEnergy Corp.
⭐
CONGRESS
COST
Costco Wholesale Corporation
⭐
CONGRESS
ARCC
Ares Capital Corporation
⭐
CONGRESS
NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation
⭐
CONGRESS
HD
The Home Depot, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
XOM
Exxon Mobil Corporation
⭐
CONGRESS
BAC
Bank of America Corporation
⭐
CONGRESS
Three notable insider purchase clusters emerged this period, with INCY drawing the most attention as 11 insiders accumulated shares, while FRNM and DOCS each saw buying from 3 and 2 insiders respectively. On the distribution side, ONC recorded the highest number of selling insiders with 47 participants unloading $189.3M in shares, followed by SNOW's 20 insiders selling $96.8M and CELC's 2 insiders divesting $317.8M.
FRNM
Freenome, Inc. Common stock
⭐
INSIDER
DOCS
Doximity, Inc.
⭐
INSIDER
INCY
Incyte Corporation
⭐
INSIDER
BEN
Franklin Resources, Inc.
⭐
INSIDER
RPM
RPM International Inc.
⭐
INSIDER
CELC
Celcuity Inc.
⭐
INSIDER
ONC
BeOne Medicines AG
⭐
INSIDER
SNOW
Snowflake Inc.
⭐
INSIDER
WYNN
Wynn Resorts, Limited
⭐
INSIDER
CRWV
CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock
⭐
INSIDER
Yesterday saw notable moves with NUE advancing 7.6% while PHG declined 6.5% and NE gained 6.3%. Today's earnings calendar features 124 companies including V and KO, both showing recent accumulation signals from institutional players, while TXN and BA have experienced distribution pressure ahead of their reports. Tomorrow's heavier slate brings 222 companies to the tape.
NUE
Nucor Corporation
⭐
BEAT
+7.6%
PHG
Koninklijke Philips N.V.
⭐
BEAT
-6.5%
NE
Noble Corporation Plc
⭐
MISS
+6.3%
UHS
Universal Health Services, Inc.
⭐
BEAT
+5.8%
HBT
HBT Financial, Inc.
⭐
BEAT
+5.4%
ARLP
Alliance Resource Partners, L.P.
⭐
MISS
+5.3%
KOF
Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V.
⭐
BEAT
+4.7%
BOH
Bank of Hawaii Corporation
⭐
BEAT
-4.6%
RMBS
Rambus Inc.
⭐
BEAT
-4.4%
SSD
Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc.
⭐
BEAT
+4.2%
V
Visa Inc.
⭐
KO
The Coca-Cola Company
⭐
RTX
RTX Corporation
⭐
CB
Chubb Limited
⭐
LMT
Lockheed Martin Corporation
⭐
UL
Unilever PLC
⭐
COF
Capital One Financial Corporation
⭐
BCS
Barclays PLC
⭐
WM
Waste Management, Inc.
⭐
UPS
United Parcel Service, Inc.
⭐
CNI
Canadian National Railway Company
⭐
PCAR
PACCAR Inc
⭐
FMX
Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A.B. de C.V.
⭐
KB
KB Financial Group Inc.
⭐
KMB
Kimberly-Clark Corporation
⭐
SAN
Banco Santander, S.A.
⭐
UBS
UBS Group AG
⭐
GD
General Dynamics Corporation
⭐
ADP
Automatic Data Processing, Inc.
⭐
ITW
Illinois Tool Works Inc.
⭐
CP
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd.
⭐
AON
Aon plc
⭐
E
Eni S.p.A.
⭐
DB
Deutsche Bank AG
⭐
ETR
Entergy Corporation
⭐
Smart money flows this period reveal a fragmented positioning landscape with no unified directional conviction. Insider activity concentrated around Incyte Corporation (INCY) where 11 insiders accumulated shares, alongside smaller purchase clusters in Freddie Mac (FRNM) with 3 buyers and Doximity (DOCS) with 2 insiders adding positions. This contrasted sharply with mass distribution at Onconetix (ONC) where 47 insiders offloaded $189.3M, Snowflake (SNOW) seeing 20 insiders sell $96.8M, and Celcuity (CELC) with 2 insiders divesting $317.8M. Congressional activity showed similar dispersion, with Rep. Latta purchasing Farmer Mac (FMAO), Rep. Dingell adding Freddie Mac (FMCC), and Rep. Newhouse taking a position in Arista Networks (ANET), while Rep. Sessions exited Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC), Rep. Liccardo reduced NVIDIA (NVDA), and Rep. Himes sold Home Depot (HD). Institutional flows in exchange-traded funds demonstrated the same selective approach, particularly in semiconductors where Broadcom (AVGO) drew additions from 9,635 ETFs against 5,507 reducing exposure, while Lam Research (LRCX) and Cisco Systems (CSCO) showed similarly bifurcated patterns, suggesting rotation within technology infrastructure rather than broad sector abandonment. Market structure reflects a pronounced shift toward traditional value leadership that stands in stark contrast to the growth dominance of prior regimes. Financials command 90% breadth strength, Healthcare reaches 80%, and Energy holds 76%, while growth sectors have been decisively abandoned with Technology at just 32% and Semiconductors collapsing to 4%. The SPY's 63% breadth reading substantially outpaces the technology-heavy QQQ at 45%, quantifying this rotation into defensive and cyclical value plays. Volatility metrics confirm markets are trading in a zone of measured caution rather than complacency or panic, with the VIX at 18.58 after declining 1.0% week-over-week, holding above the sub-15 threshold that would signal dangerous investor complacency. The MOVE bond volatility index at 12.64 shows fixed income markets remain subdued. Economic data continues arriving roughly in line with expectations as reflected in the Economic Surprise Index holding at +1.9, though June durable goods orders at 0.3% significantly missed the 2.5% forecast while the ex-transportation reading of 0.6% also fell short of the 0.8% estimate, indicating business investment momentum remains sluggish despite the Dallas Fed manufacturing index unexpectedly turning positive at 1.3. Tomorrow's Federal Reserve decision anchors the immediate catalyst landscape, with rates expected to hold at 3.75% while traders parse Chair Powell's press conference for signals on future policy trajectory given mixed economic momentum. Today's earnings slate brings 124 companies including Visa (V) and Coca-Cola (
Key themes: Watch convergence signals closely. Stocks where insiders, institutions, and politicians agree tend to show stronger directional moves.