The Edge

🐷 PIG ROAST

💬 Word on the Street

Rep. Cleo Fields purchased Microsoft (MSFT) stock worth up to $15,000 while insiders at Modelon (MDLN) dumped $2.2 billion—and that's just the warm-up before Lumentum Holdings (LITE) ripped 10.2% to $772 after hours on Nvidia halo effect, Tower Semiconductor (TSEM) exploded 17% to $166 on AI power chip news, and Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) spiked 10% to $102 despite dilution concerns. Smart money recorded $4.6 billion in net outflows today while the VIX climbed 3.5% to 25.1 and the Fed quietly injected $9.6 billion in liquidity into the system. Here's what smart money is doing today.

The Big Idea: When insiders, institutions, AND politicians all bet on the same stock? That's convergence — and historically, these aligned signals tend to pack more punch than solo moves. We track the smart money so you don't have to.

ETF Institutional funds adding/removing positions
INSIDER Corporate executives buying/selling their own stock
CONGRESS Politicians making trades (yes, we see you)

▲ + Buying Rising Stock: Smart money accumulating as price rises — ideal alignment
+ Buying Falling Stock: Smart money accumulating while price drops — falling knife risk
▲ - Selling Rising Stock: Smart money exiting while price still rising — warning signal
- Selling Falling Stock: Smart money exiting as price drops — confirms downtrend

The Bottom Line: Convergence + aligned momentum = strongest setups. Convergence + divergent momentum = proceed with caution. This isn't financial advice — it's intelligence. What you do with it is on you.

📚 Jargon Buster

Hard Landing

Recession, baby. Stocks cry, jobs disappear, and the Fed says “oopsie.”

The VIX currently sits at 25.09, reflecting elevated fear in equity markets after rising 3.5% over the past week and crossing into the high volatility threshold above 25. Meanwhile, the MOVE index measuring bond market volatility remains subdued at 14.54 despite an 11.6% weekly increase, suggesting fixed income markets are experiencing relatively calm conditions. This divergence indicates stock investors are pricing in considerably more uncertainty than their bond market counterparts, an unusual dynamic that typically reflects equity-specific concerns rather than broader systemic stress.

|| Market Sutra ||

"The first mistake hurts; the second destroys."

— Averaging down ARKK names in 2021–2022 led to irreversible drawdowns

Market breadth remains narrow across major indices, with roughly one-third of SPY and QQQ components trading above their moving averages while IYT shows particularly weak participation at just 9%. Defensive sectors like Energy and Utilities are demonstrating relative strength above 90%, contrasting sharply with growth-oriented areas including Consumer Discretionary and Semiconductors languishing near 21% and Financials at just 12%. This divergence between defensive leadership and weakness in cyclical sectors suggests investors are currently rotating toward traditionally lower-volatility areas of the market.

As of March 18, Fed net liquidity stood at $6.66 trillion, up $9.6 billion from the previous week, indicating a modest expansion in system-wide liquidity conditions that historically correlates with supportive environments for risk assets. The next H.4.1 release drops Thursday, March 26, which will show whether this liquidity expansion continued or reversed course.

Yesterday's data painted a mixed picture as the labor market showed unexpected resilience with initial jobless claims falling to 205K versus the 215K estimate, while January new home sales collapsed to 587K from a revised 712K prior month, missing estimates by 133K units—the weakest reading since August 2024. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index surged to 18.1, crushing the 10.0 estimate by 8.1 points and marking the strongest expansion in the region since October 2024, even as the Atlanta Fed trimmed its Q1 GDP tracking from 2.7% to 2.3%. Today's CFTC positioning data will reveal whether speculators maintained their net short stance on S&P 500 futures (last at -134.5K contracts) amid this resilient economic backdrop, while traders tomorrow will watch for any further revision to the Atlanta Fed's GDP nowcast and whether the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index confirms the persistent economic momentum that's kept recession fears at bay.

Exchange-traded funds displayed mixed positioning in technology during the period, with 1,589 ETFs adding Microsoft and 1,478 adding Micron in the semiconductor space, while 1,087 ETFs simultaneously reduced Broadcom holdings despite it also appearing among top additions. The institutional flow suggests selective rotation within technology sectors, as funds rebalanced between software, chip manufacturers, and diversified semiconductor positions, while healthcare also saw notable distribution with 943 ETFs reducing Gilead Sciences.

MSFT Microsoft Corporation ⭐

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -3.2% 3M -18.3% 1Y +2.0%

1589 ETFs • 0 shares

AVGO Broadcom Inc. ⭐

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -4.8% 3M -6.1% 1Y +70.7%

1528 ETFs • 0 shares

MU Micron Technology, Inc. ⭐

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +9.6% 3M +91.1% 1Y +338.0%

1478 ETFs • 0 shares

NOW ServiceNow, Inc. ⭐

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +0.3% 3M -27.5% 1Y -31.8%

1268 ETFs • 0 shares

JNJ Johnson & Johnson ⭐

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D -1.8% 3M +13.5% 1Y +47.9%

1261 ETFs • 0 shares

AVGO Broadcom Inc. ⭐

- Selling Falling Stock 5D -4.8% 3M -6.1% 1Y +70.7%

1087 ETFs • 0 shares

MSFT Microsoft Corporation ⭐

- Selling Falling Stock 5D -3.2% 3M -18.3% 1Y +2.0%

1004 ETFs • 0 shares

GILD Gilead Sciences, Inc. ⭐

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -2.3% 3M +18.8% 1Y +30.7%

943 ETFs • 0 shares

MU Micron Technology, Inc. ⭐

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +9.6% 3M +91.1% 1Y +338.0%

853 ETFs • 0 shares

WMT Walmart Inc. ⭐

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -3.4% 3M +4.9% 1Y +42.8%

799 ETFs • 0 shares

Rep. Cleo Fields made three separate purchases of Microsoft (MSFT) shares, while Rep. Pete Sessions sold Verizon (VZ) and Rep. Kelly Louise Morrison executed two sales of Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG). The activity shows concentrated buying interest in big tech and multiple exits from both telecommunications and insurance brokerage positions.

MSFT Microsoft Corporation ⭐ CONGRESS

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -3.2% 3M -18.3% 1Y +2.0%

Rep. Cleo Fields (Cleo Fields) • $1,001 - $15,000

MSFT Microsoft Corporation ⭐ CONGRESS

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -3.2% 3M -18.3% 1Y +2.0%

Rep. Cleo Fields (Cleo Fields) • $1,001 - $15,000

MSFT Microsoft Corporation ⭐ CONGRESS

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -3.2% 3M -18.3% 1Y +2.0%

Rep. Cleo Fields (Cleo Fields) • $1,001 - $15,000

FSS Federal Signal Corporation ⭐ CONGRESS

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -1.1% 3M -5.2% 1Y +36.5%

Rep. Gilbert Cisneros (Gilbert Cisneros) • $1,001 - $15,000

NDAQ Nasdaq, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +3.0% 3M -7.2% 1Y +15.6%

Rep. April Delaney (April Delaney) • $1,001 - $15,000

VZ Verizon Communications Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -2.3% 3M +21.4% 1Y +17.4%

Rep. Pete Sessions (Pete Sessions) • $1,001 - $15,000

AJG Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. ⭐ CONGRESS

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +2.7% 3M -16.8% 1Y -36.0%

Rep. Kelly Louise Morrison (Kelly Louise Morrison) • $1,001 - $15,000

AJG Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. ⭐ CONGRESS

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +2.7% 3M -16.8% 1Y -36.0%

Rep. Kelly Louise Morrison (Kelly Louise Morrison) • $15,001 - $50,000

AJG Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. ⭐ CONGRESS

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +2.7% 3M -16.8% 1Y -36.0%

Rep. Kelly Louise Morrison (Kelly Louise Morrison) • $1,001 - $15,000

THR Thermon Group Holdings, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +4.3% 3M +24.3% 1Y +62.4%

Rep. Gilbert Cisneros (Gilbert Cisneros) • $1,001 - $15,000

Multiple insiders at SNDA accumulated shares with 8 separate purchases, while FANG saw the largest cluster of selling activity with 30 insiders collectively disposing of $2.2 billion in holdings. MDLN also experienced significant distribution as 5 insiders sold a combined $2.2 billion, representing notable coordinated activity on both sides of the ledger.

SVRE SaverOne 2014 Ltd ⭐ INSIDER

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +5.9% 3M +61.2% 1Y -92.8%

2 insiders • $919.0M

SNDA Sonida Senior Living, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D -0.3% 3M +6.3% 1Y +40.3%

8 insiders • $142.6M

CPNG Coupang, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +3.9% 3M -16.9% 1Y -15.7%

3 insiders • $136.6M

ALKT Alkami Technology, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -6.3% 3M -23.6% 1Y -33.6%

9 insiders • $119.6M

VRT Vertiv Holdings Co ⭐ INSIDER

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +1.4% 3M +67.4% 1Y +218.0%

19 insiders • $75.3M

MDLN Medline Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +6.1%

5 insiders • $2.2B

FANG Diamondback Energy, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +7.5% 3M +27.7% 1Y +25.4%

30 insiders • $2.2B

SHC Sotera Health Company ⭐ INSIDER

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +1.8% 3M -18.8% 1Y +13.1%

2 insiders • $381.8M

WMT Walmart Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -3.4% 3M +4.9% 1Y +42.8%

6 insiders • $344.9M

CRC California Resources Corporation ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +2.0% 3M +41.0% 1Y +48.2%

4 insiders • $217.9M

185 companies report earnings today, with VAPORES.SN and AKRN.ME showing recent institutional accumulation patterns heading into their results. TLKM.JK and SMRA.JK are experiencing distribution activity among large holders ahead of their reports. Yesterday's session saw notable declines in OLA.TO and ORLA, both down more than 21%, alongside an 18.4% drop in ALM.

📊 Previous Earnings — March 19, 2026

371 reported • ✅ 40 beats • ❌ 38 misses

OLA.TO Orla Mining Ltd. ⭐ BEAT -22.1%

50

+ Buying Falling Stock

EPS: $0.58 vs $0.45 est (+27.5%)

ORLA Orla Mining Ltd. ⭐ BEAT -21.9%

50

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

EPS: $0.40 vs $0.33 est (+23.0%)

ALM Almonty Industries Inc. Common Shares ⭐ MISS -18.4%

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

EPS: $-0.31 vs $-0.00 est (-78175.0%)

FMCXF Foran Mining Corporation ⭐ MET -17.0%

30

+ Buying Falling Stock

EPS: $-0.00 vs $-0.00 est

PL-WT Planet Labs PBC ⭐ MISS +16.4%

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

EPS: $-0.48 vs $-0.05 est (-917.8%)

FOM.TO Foran Mining Corporation ⭐ MET -15.3%

50

+ Buying Falling Stock

EPS: $-0.00 vs $-0.00 est

NGEX.TO NGEx Minerals Ltd. ⭐ MISS -15.0%

30

+ Buying Falling Stock

EPS: $-0.18 vs $-0.15 est (-23.5%)

NGXXF NGEx Minerals Ltd. ⭐ MISS -14.2%

30

+ Buying Falling Stock

EPS: $-0.13 vs $-0.11 est (-23.6%)

BABAF Alibaba Group Holding Limited ⭐ BEAT -13.6%

30

+ Buying Falling Stock

EPS: $0.23 vs $0.21 est (+9.0%)

LAC.TO Lithium Americas Corp. ⭐ BEAT -11.4%

30

+ Buying Falling Stock

EPS: $-0.07 vs $-0.10 est (+28.5%)

🎯 Reporting Today — March 20, 2026

185 reporting • Smart Money: 27 acc • 44 dist • 114 neut

VAPORES.SN Compañía Sud Americana de Vapores S.A. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

AKRN.ME PJSC Acron ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

CSUAY China Shenhua Energy Company Limited ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

ENEL.MI Enel S.p.A. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

EPS: $0.13 vs $0.13 est

ENL.DE Enel S.p.A. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

EPS: $0.13 vs $0.13 est

BKFCF Bank of Communications Co., Ltd. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

CHBJF China CITIC Bank Corporation Limited ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

CHHQF China Hongqiao Group Limited ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

KAP.L JSC National Atomic Company Kazatomprom ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

KAP.IL JSC National Atomic Company Kazatomprom ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

XPEV XPeng Inc. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

HOKCF The Hong Kong and China Gas Company Limited ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

NIO NIO Inc. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

GOLL54.SA Gol Linhas Aéreas Inteligentes S.A. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

XTB.WA XTB S.A. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

Smart money flows reveal selective positioning as institutional investors added Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) to 1,589 exchange-traded funds while simultaneously showing mixed signals in semiconductors, with 1,478 ETFs adding Micron Technology Inc. and 1,087 reducing Broadcom Inc. holdings despite it also appearing among top additions. Rep. Cleo Fields made three separate purchases of Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) shares, echoing the institutional preference for established tech names, while Rep. Pete Sessions sold Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) and Rep. Kelly Louise Morrison executed two sales of Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG). On the insider front, SNDA saw concentrated accumulation with 8 separate purchases, contrasting sharply with FANG where 30 insiders collectively disposed of $2.2 billion in holdings and MDLN where 5 insiders sold a combined $2.2 billion, representing the most significant coordinated distribution activity in the period. Market conditions are showing a defensive rotation as the VIX sits at 25.09 after rising 3.5% over the past week and crossing into high volatility territory, while the MOVE index measuring bond market volatility remains subdued at 14.54 despite an 11.6% weekly increase. This divergence between equity fear and bond market calm suggests stock-specific concerns rather than systemic stress, a dynamic reflected in narrow market breadth with only 32.8% of SPY components trading above their moving averages. Defensive sectors like Energy and Utilities are demonstrating relative strength above 90%, while growth-oriented areas including Consumer Discretionary and Semiconductors languish near 21% and Financials sit at just 12%, indicating investors are rotating toward traditionally lower-volatility areas even as economic data shows unexpected resilience with initial jobless claims falling to 205K versus the 215K estimate and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index surging to 18.1, crushing the 10.0 estimate by 8.1 points. Today's CFTC positioning data will reveal whether speculators maintained their net short stance on S&P 500 futures last at negative 134.5K contracts amid this resilient economic backdrop, providing insight into whether professional traders are fighting the defensive rotation or joining it. With 30 accumulation signals appearing in names like Emerson Electric Co. (EMR), McDonald's Corporation (MCD), and Kenvue Inc. (KVUE) against zero distribution signals, the technical backdrop suggests selective buying interest concentrated in quality names even as breadth remains challenged. The 185 companies reporting earnings today, including VAPORES.SN and AKRN.ME which have seen recent institutional accumulation patterns, could provide near-term catalysts that either validate the defensive positioning or trigger a reversal if results surprise sufficiently to overcome the elevated VIX reading and narrow market participation.

Key themes: Watch convergence signals closely. Stocks where insiders, institutions, and politicians agree tend to show stronger directional moves.