The Edge - InsiderStreet.ai | February 13, 2026

🔥 AFTER MARKET MOVERS

After-Market Session • 17:02 ET • $0.4T Total Volume

📈 Top Gainers by $ Volume

PLTR +1.74% $6.0B

AMAT +8.08% $5.6B

AMD +0.67% $5.4B

COIN +16.46% $5.2B

APP +6.47% $3.5B

CSCO +2.47% $3.3B

INTC +0.67% $3.3B

HOOD +6.82% $3.2B

WMT +0.19% $3.2B

MSTR +8.85% $3.2B

📉 Top Losers by $ Volume

NVDA -2.23% $29.5B

SNDK -0.59% $14.8B

AAPL -2.27% $14.4B

MU -0.56% $13.7B

MSFT -0.13% $13.6B

AMZN -0.41% $13.1B

GOOGL -1.06% $11.7B

META -1.55% $7.9B

GOOG -1.08% $6.2B

AVGO -1.81% $6.0B

🐷 PIG ROAST

COIN +16.5% Investopedia: Coinbase scoops Bitcoin scraps at $164 while YTD down 40%, experts cackle at more downside—buying the dip or digging own grave?

RIVN +26.6% Benzinga: Rivian crushes Q4 earnings with EPS beat (-$0.53 vs -$0.68 est), rockets 27% to $17.73 despite YTD 28% bloodbath—zombie EV lives!

NBIS +9.2% SeekingAlpha: Nebius revenue explodes 547% YoY, AI cloud up 800%, pops 9% to $98—energy woes? Pfft, 117% 1Y gain laughs at that noise.

ICLR +16.1% Businesswire: Fraud probes swarm ICLR, yet it surges 16% to $93 amid 58% YTD massacre—lawsuit vultures circling, bagholders popping champagne on false hope.

TPH +26.8% PRNewswire: M&A probes hit Tri Pointe, stock blasts 27% to $46 anyway—YTD winner at +16% snickers at fiduciary fuss, buyout buzz?

DKNG -13.5% FastCompany: DraftKings misses big on earnings (EPS $0.25 vs $0.45 est), tanks 14% to $22 despite "blowout" hype—YTD 29% loser, bets gone bust.

PINS -16.8% Investopedia: Pinterest earnings scream tariff terror, craters 17% to $15 amid 30% YTD rout—Meta bullies and Trump walls pin the dream board.

FBIN -17.6% Fool: Fortune Brands whiffs Q4 sales and earnings, CEO bolts, stock nosedives 18% to $51—YTD star to zero, cabinets collecting dust.

RYAN -12.8% SeekingAlpha: Ryan misses Q4 EPS ($0.45 vs $0.50 est), sheds 13% to $39 in YTD 12% slump—insurance specialty? More like penalty box.

💬 Word on the Street

While Rep. Michael McCaul (R-TX) quietly scooped up MercadoLibre (MELI) shares and the Fed pumped $16.5B into the system, six insiders at Diamondback Energy (FANG) sprinted for the exits with $342.0M in stock sales—the kind of timing that makes you wonder what they're seeing that we're not. After hours, the real fireworks erupted: Rivian Automotive (RIVN) rocketed 27% on an earnings beat while Coinbase Global (COIN) doubled down on Bitcoin at $164 as it bleeds 40% year-to-date, and Nebius Group (NBIS) rode an 800% AI cloud surge to a 9% pop. Here's what smart money is doing today.

🌤️ MARKET WEATHER

Presidential Cycle: Year 2 (2nd Term Year 2) • Donald Trump (R)

We're 32 trading days into the second year of Trump's second term, and markets are tracking slightly ahead of the typical Year 2 pattern—SPY sits just 0.7% above its historical average for this point in the cycle, though it's lagging the broader 20-year seasonal trend by 1.7%. The tech-heavy QQQ is running 0.6% below its Year 2 historical comp, which isn't unusual given that midterm policy uncertainty tends to create choppiness in growth names during this phase. If the pattern holds, Year 2 tends to deliver modest gains around 3.5% for the full year with another 1.5% typically materializing by mid-March, though the first quarter of these cycles has historically been more about consolidation than acceleration.

SPY -0.2% YTD

2026 Actual

2nd Term Year 2 Avg

Year 2 Projection

vs 2nd Term Year 2: +0.7%

vs 20yr Seasonal: -1.7%

Day: 32 / 252

QQQ -1.8% YTD

2026 Actual

2nd Term Year 2 Avg

Year 2 Projection

vs 2nd Term Year 2: -0.6%

vs 20yr Seasonal: -4.4%

Day: 32 / 252

📊 2nd Term Year 2 years historically average 3.5% for SPY. Current YTD: -0.2%

📖 HOW TO READ THIS REPORT

The Big Idea: When insiders, institutions, AND politicians all bet on the same stock? That's convergence — and historically, these aligned signals tend to pack more punch than solo moves. We track the smart money so you don't have to.

Signal Badges

ETF Institutional funds adding/removing positions
INSIDER Corporate executives buying/selling their own stock
CONGRESS Politicians making trades (yes, we see you)

Momentum Icons

▲ + Buying Rising Stock: Smart money accumulating as price rises — ideal alignment
+ Buying Falling Stock: Smart money accumulating while price drops — falling knife risk
▲ - Selling Rising Stock: Smart money exiting while price still rising — warning signal
- Selling Falling Stock: Smart money exiting as price drops — confirms downtrend

The Bottom Line: Convergence + aligned momentum = strongest setups. Convergence + divergent momentum = proceed with caution. This isn't financial advice — it's intelligence. What you do with it is on you.

📚 Jargon Buster

Correlation

How much stocks move together. Correlation 1.0 = they’re all holding hands. Breaks down = some get rich, most get carried out.

🎯 SMART MONEY CONVERGENCE

📈 Accumulation Detected (10)

TSLA Tesla, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS INSIDER ETF

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +5.0% 3M -5.1% 1Y +27.0%

4 member(s) purchased N/A • 26 insiders purchased $1226.6M • 1209 ETFs increased positions

CRWV CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock ⭐ CONGRESS INSIDER ETF

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +28.2% 3M +8.3%

2 member(s) purchased N/A • 79 insiders purchased $693.2M • 221 ETFs increased positions

PG The Procter & Gamble Company ⭐ CONGRESS INSIDER ETF

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +1.7% 3M +8.6% 1Y -2.9%

7 member(s) purchased N/A • 17 insiders purchased $134.3M • 580 ETFs increased positions

FDS FactSet Research Systems Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS INSIDER ETF

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -3.4% 3M -25.3% 1Y -55.0%

9 member(s) purchased N/A • 24 insiders purchased $111.1M • 272 ETFs increased positions

LLY Eli Lilly and Company ⭐ CONGRESS INSIDER ETF

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +1.7% 3M +5.2% 1Y +20.9%

18 member(s) purchased N/A • 53 insiders purchased $104.2M • 828 ETFs increased positions

DASH DoorDash, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS INSIDER ETF

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -12.4% 3M -19.7% 1Y -16.6%

4 member(s) purchased N/A • 11 insiders purchased $100.3M • 549 ETFs increased positions

SMCI Super Micro Computer, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS INSIDER ETF

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D -1.4% 3M -21.6% 1Y -21.2%

3 member(s) purchased N/A • 2 insiders purchased $90.0M • 372 ETFs increased positions

V Visa Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS INSIDER ETF

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -1.3% 3M -4.2% 1Y -7.1%

9 member(s) purchased N/A • 7 insiders purchased $84.7M • 795 ETFs increased positions

DIS The Walt Disney Company ⭐ CONGRESS INSIDER ETF

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -2.5% 3M -10.3% 1Y -5.1%

1 member(s) purchased N/A • 25 insiders purchased $78.0M • 677 ETFs increased positions

UNP Union Pacific Corporation ⭐ CONGRESS INSIDER ETF

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +4.1% 3M +17.1% 1Y +8.2%

3 member(s) purchased N/A • 34 insiders purchased $64.7M • 553 ETFs increased positions

😱 VOLATILITY & FEAR

The VIX declined 5.3% this week to 17.65, remaining within the normal range and suggesting measured uncertainty in equity markets, while the MOVE index dropped more sharply by 15.7% to 11.77, indicating particularly subdued expectations for bond market volatility. This divergence shows fixed income traders pricing in minimal Treasury volatility even as equity volatility holds at moderate levels. The current readings reflect neither complacency nor heightened stress, with stocks showing typical fluctuation expectations and bonds exhibiting unusually calm conditions.

VIX

17.65

-5.3% WoW

➡️

Normal

MOVE

11.77

-15.7% WoW

📉

Low

|| Market Sutra ||

"The market reveals character faster than adversity does."

— Traders who broke discipline in 2008 never recovered their confidence.

📊 MARKET REGIME

Market breadth shows a notable divergence, with traditional defensive and commodity-linked sectors leading as Materials, Consumer Staples, and Energy demonstrate the strongest relative performance above 90%, while growth-oriented sectors including Technology, Financials, and Communication Services lag significantly in the 35-46% range. The breadth data across major indices reveals further dispersion, as the transport-heavy IYT posts 84% breadth while the tech-concentrated QQQ registers just 50%, suggesting a rotation away from large-cap technology names that have dominated in recent periods. This combination of defensive sector leadership and narrow technology participation typically reflects investors repositioning toward more economically sensitive areas while reducing exposure to higher-valuation growth stocks.

Sector Strength

🧱 Materials

100.0%

+3.5%

🛒 Consumer Staples

94.4%

+1.8%

⛽ Energy

90.9%

+2.0%

⚡ Utilities

90.3%

+7.3%

🏭 Industrials

78.5%

+0.6%

🏠 Real Estate

74.2%

+3.6%

🔌 Semiconductors

72.0%

+1.5%

🛍️ Consumer Discretionary

63.3%

-1.6%

🏥 Healthcare

51.7%

+0.0%

🏦 Financials

45.9%

-4.8%

💻 Technology

45.7%

-1.1%

📡 Communication

34.8%

-1.0%

📈 INDEX BREADTH

SPY

65.4%

BULLISH

QQQ

49.5%

NEUTRAL

DIA

66.7%

BULLISH

IYT

83.7%

BULLISH

💧 FED LIQUIDITY

Net Liquidity: $6.62 Trillion

↑ $16.5B WoW

As of February 11, Fed net liquidity stands at $6.62 trillion, up $16.5 billion week-over-week, with the next H.4.1 report scheduled for Thursday, February 19. This expansion in liquidity typically correlates with increased support for risk asset prices, as more available capital in the financial system has historically reduced funding stress and supported equity valuations.

📅 ECONOMIC CALENDAR Surprise Index: +1.4

Yesterday's housing market data showed significant weakness as existing home sales plunged to 3.91M from 4.27M prior, missing estimates of 4.2M with an 8.4% monthly decline that was more than double the expected 3.4% drop—marking one of the lowest sales rates since the 2010-2011 period when the market was still recovering from the financial crisis. Jobless claims edged slightly higher to 227K versus 225K expected but remain at historically low levels, indicating labor market resilience even as housing deteriorates under elevated mortgage rates. This morning's inflation data delivered a mixed picture with headline CPI showing 2.4% year-over-year as expected, but core CPI's monthly increase of 0.3% versus 0.2% expected signals persistent underlying price pressures that may complicate the Fed's rate-cut calculus, while speculative positioning data shows large traders remain net short S&P 500 futures at -105.1K contracts though less bearish than the prior week's -132.9K.

Yesterday — Thursday, February 12

6 events · 2 misses

13:30 Initial Jobless Claims (Feb/07) 227.0K vs 225.0K est

15:00 Existing Home Sales (Jan) 3.91M vs 4.2M est

15:00 Existing Home Sales MoM -8.4% vs -3.4% est

Today — Friday, February 13

10 events · 2 misses

13:30 CPI s.a (Jan) 326.588 vs 326.3 est

13:30 Inflation Rate MoM (Jan) 0.2% vs 0.1% est

13:30 Inflation Rate YoY (Jan) 2.4% vs 2.4% est

13:30 CPI (Jan) 325.25 vs 325.3 est

13:30 Core Inflation Rate MoM (Jan) 0.3% vs 0.2% est

13:30 Core Inflation Rate YoY (Jan) 2.5% vs 2.5% est

20:30 CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions -105.1K vs NoneK est

20:30 CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions 117.8K vs NoneK est

20:30 CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions 13.4K vs NoneK est

20:30 CFTC Gold Speculative net positions 160.0K vs NoneK est

Tomorrow — Monday, February 16

1 events · 0 high impact

13:25 Fed Bowman Speech Pending

🏦 INSTITUTIONAL FLOW

Institutional flows this period showed conflicting signals as technology names dominated both sides of the ledger, with 1,209 ETFs adding TSLA positions while 680 removed them, and AVGO seeing similar two-way activity (1,048 adding, 879 removing), suggesting active rebalancing rather than directional sector rotation. The only clear exit trend emerged in healthcare, where 680 ETFs reduced LLY exposure, while defense technology name PLTR saw net accumulation across 881 funds.

Top Buying

TSLA Tesla, Inc. ⭐

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +5.0% 3M -5.1% 1Y +27.0%

1209 ETFs • 0 shares

AVGO Broadcom Inc. ⭐

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +6.7% 3M -5.9% 1Y +41.3%

1048 ETFs • 0 shares

PLTR Palantir Technologies Inc. ⭐

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -0.7% 3M -32.4% 1Y +14.7%

881 ETFs • 0 shares

LLY Eli Lilly and Company ⭐

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +1.7% 3M +5.2% 1Y +20.9%

828 ETFs • 0 shares

CRM Salesforce, Inc. ⭐

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -2.4% 3M -24.0% 1Y -42.4%

809 ETFs • 0 shares

Top Selling

AVGO Broadcom Inc. ⭐

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +6.7% 3M -5.9% 1Y +41.3%

879 ETFs • 0 shares

TSLA Tesla, Inc. ⭐

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +5.0% 3M -5.1% 1Y +27.0%

680 ETFs • 0 shares

LLY Eli Lilly and Company ⭐

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +1.7% 3M +5.2% 1Y +20.9%

680 ETFs • 0 shares

V Visa Inc. ⭐

- Selling Falling Stock 5D -1.3% 3M -4.2% 1Y -7.1%

536 ETFs • 0 shares

IBM International Business Machines Corporation ⭐

- Selling Falling Stock 5D -10.0% 3M -17.3% 1Y +3.8%

526 ETFs • 0 shares

🏛️ CONGRESSIONAL TRADES

Congressional members reported several technology-sector transactions, with Rep. Michael McCaul purchasing e-commerce platform MELI and financial software company INTU while selling semiconductor equipment maker ASML. Rep. John McGuire added chipmaker NVDA but reduced his position in MSFT, while Rep. April Delaney sold rail equipment manufacturer WAB.

Top Buying

MELI MercadoLibre, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -1.4% 3M -4.4% 1Y -1.4%

Rep. Michael McCaul (Michael McCaul) • $1,001 - $15,000

INTU Intuit Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -8.5% 3M -39.2% 1Y -31.7%

Rep. Michael McCaul (Michael McCaul) • $1,001 - $15,000

NVDA NVIDIA Corporation ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +8.8% 3M -3.2% 1Y +40.8%

Rep. John McGuire (John McGuire) • $1,001 - $15,000

WDAY Workday, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -9.3% 3M -36.5% 1Y -45.2%

Rep. Michael McCaul (Michael McCaul) • $1,001 - $15,000

SAP SAP SE ⭐ CONGRESS

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +3.2% 3M -19.9% 1Y -29.0%

Rep. Michael McCaul (Michael McCaul) • $1,001 - $15,000

Top Selling

WAB Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +5.7% 3M +22.2% 1Y +22.6%

Rep. April Delaney (April Delaney) • $1,001 - $15,000

ASML ASML Holding N.V. ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +4.3% 3M +37.6% 1Y +88.1%

Rep. Michael McCaul (Michael McCaul) • $1,001 - $15,000

MSFT Microsoft Corporation ⭐ CONGRESS

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +2.1% 3M -20.9% 1Y -1.6%

Rep. John McGuire (John McGuire) • $1,001 - $15,000

PTC PTC Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

- Selling Falling Stock 5D -2.0% 3M -15.3% 1Y -10.2%

Rep. April Delaney (April Delaney) • $1,001 - $15,000

PG The Procter & Gamble Company ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +1.7% 3M +8.6% 1Y -2.9%

Rep. David Taylor (David Taylor) • $1,001 - $15,000

👔 INSIDER ACTIVITY

Lamb Weston (LW) saw 26 insiders receive awards or purchase shares, followed by RTX with 18 insiders and Eli Lilly (LLY) with 14 insiders adding positions. On the selling side, 15 insiders at Wynn Resorts (WYNN) collectively disposed of $249.8 million in shares, while 6 insiders at Diamondback Energy (FANG) sold a combined $342.0 million and 3 insiders at Banc of California (BANC) reduced positions totaling $237.0 million.

Cluster Buying

LW Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +5.9% 3M -16.3% 1Y -12.7%

26 insiders • $224.2M

RTX RTX Corporation ⭐ INSIDER

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +2.6% 3M +12.7% 1Y +58.7%

18 insiders • $110.3M

LLY Eli Lilly and Company ⭐ INSIDER

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +1.7% 3M +5.2% 1Y +20.9%

14 insiders • $101.7M

NFRX Harrison Street Infrastructure Active ETF ⭐ INSIDER

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +5.1%

6 insiders • $90.0M

MDLZ Mondelez International, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +2.6% 3M +8.3% 1Y +4.6%

10 insiders • $83.5M

Heavy Selling

FANG Diamondback Energy, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +1.6% 3M +13.8% 1Y +6.3%

6 insiders • $342.0M

WYNN Wynn Resorts, Limited ⭐ INSIDER

- Selling Falling Stock 5D -4.7% 3M -14.3% 1Y +41.4%

15 insiders • $249.8M

BANC Banc of California, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +0.1% 3M +16.0% 1Y +25.9%

3 insiders • $237.0M

MPWR Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -0.0% 3M +21.1% 1Y +66.5%

33 insiders • $213.1M

SYK Stryker Corporation ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +1.0% 3M +0.6% 1Y -5.7%

19 insiders • $181.9M

📅 EARNINGS CALENDAR

Yesterday's session saw notable volatility with TNET declining 27.6% while KUBTY surged 26.9% and IRM advanced 19.1%. Today's earnings calendar features 229 companies reporting, with accumulation signals appearing in 8766.T and 7182.T, while distribution signals have emerged in 298380.KQ and 4543.T ahead of their results. Tomorrow's slate includes 215 companies scheduled to report quarterly results.

📊 Previous Earnings — February 12, 2026

883 reported • ✅ 46 beats • ❌ 36 misses

TNET TriNet Group, Inc. ⭐ MISS -27.6%

30

+ Buying Falling Stock

EPS: $-0.02 vs $0.37 est (-105.6%)

KUBTY Kubota Corporation ⭐ BEAT +26.9%

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

EPS: $1.29 vs $0.89 est (+44.9%)

IRM Iron Mountain Incorporated ⭐ MISS +19.1%

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

EPS: $0.61 vs $1.39 est (-56.1%)

PDFS PDF Solutions, Inc. ⭐ BEAT +18.8%

50

+ Buying Falling Stock

EPS: $0.30 vs $0.24 est (+25.0%)

CBRE CBRE Group, Inc. ⭐ BEAT -17.9%

50

+ Buying Falling Stock

EPS: $2.73 vs $2.68 est (+1.9%)

IRDM Iridium Communications Inc. ⭐ BEAT +17.0%

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

EPS: $0.24 vs $0.23 est (+4.3%)

HWM Howmet Aerospace Inc. ⭐ BEAT +16.8%

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

EPS: $1.05 vs $0.96 est (+9.4%)

CROX Crocs, Inc. ⭐ BEAT +16.5%

50

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

EPS: $2.29 vs $1.90 est (+20.5%)

USFD US Foods Holding Corp. ⭐ BEAT +16.1%

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

EPS: $1.04 vs $1.01 est (+3.0%)

BAX Baxter International Inc. ⭐ MISS -14.1%

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

EPS: $-2.01 vs $0.53 est (-479.9%)

🎯 Reporting Today — February 13, 2026

229 reporting • Smart Money:

127 acc •

52 dist •

50 neut

8766.T Tokio Marine Holdings, Inc. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

7182.T JAPAN POST BANK Co., Ltd. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

8725.T MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

6178.T Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

8630.T Sompo Holdings, Inc. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

8750.T Dai-ichi Life Holdings, Inc. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

4578.T Otsuka Holdings Co., Ltd. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

062040.KS Sanil Electric Co., Ltd. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

214150.KQ CLASSYS Inc. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

5020.T ENEOS Holdings, Inc. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

1925.T Daiwa House Industry Co., Ltd. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

4612.T Nippon Paint Holdings Co., Ltd. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

9735.T SECOM Co., Ltd. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

6361.T Ebara Corporation ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

8593.T Mitsubishi HC Capital Inc. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

📌 Next Earnings — February 16, 2026

215 reporting • Smart Money:

109 acc •

49 dist •

57 neut

BDMN.JK PT Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

0005.HK HSBC Holdings plc ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

084370.KQ Eugene Technology Co.,Ltd. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

112610.KS CS Wind Corporation ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

137400.KQ People & Technology Inc. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

036830.KQ Soulbrain Holdings Co., Ltd. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

093370.KS Foosung Co., Ltd. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

102940.KQ Kolon Life Science Inc. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

002240.KS Kiswire Ltd. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

KCHOL.IS Koç Holding A.S. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

📝 Today's Summary

Smart money flows are painting a picture of active repositioning rather than clear conviction. Institutional activity centered on technology names showed intense two-way traffic, with 1,209 ETFs adding Tesla (TSLA) while 680 removed it, and Broadcom (AVGO) seeing similar rebalancing with 1,048 funds adding and 879 exiting. The clearest directional signal came from healthcare, where 680 ETFs reduced Eli Lilly (LLY) exposure, even as 14 insiders at the pharmaceutical giant were adding shares. Congressional members leaned into selective technology plays, with Rep. Michael McCaul purchasing MercadoLibre (MELI) and Intuit (INTU) while selling ASML, and Rep. John McGuire adding Nvidia (NVDA) but trimming Microsoft (MSFT). On the insider front, concentrated selling dominated the narrative with 15 insiders at Wynn Resorts (WYNN) disposing of $249.8 million, 6 insiders at Diamondback Energy (FANG) selling $342.0 million, and 3 insiders at Banc of California (BANC) exiting $237.0 million in positions. Palantir Technologies (PLTR) stood out as the exception with net accumulation across 881 institutional funds. Markets are tracking the historical Year 2 presidential cycle pattern with surprising fidelity, as the S&P 500 sits just 0.7% above its typical performance for this 32-trading-day mark in a second presidential term, though it lags the broader 20-year seasonal trend by 1.7%. The Nasdaq-tracking QQQ is running 0.6% below its Year 2 comparison, consistent with the policy uncertainty that typically creates choppiness in growth stocks during this phase. Volatility indicators are telling a split story, with the VIX declining 5.3% to 17.65 in the normal range while the MOVE index dropped more sharply by 15.7% to 11.77, reflecting unusually calm bond market expectations even as equity volatility remains moderate. The real action is happening beneath the surface in sector rotation, where defensive and commodity-linked areas are dominating with Materials, Consumer Staples, and Energy all showing breadth above 90%, while growth-oriented Technology, Financials, and Communication Services languish in the 35-46% range. The transport-heavy iShares Transportation ETF (IYT) posting 84% breadth while QQQ registers just 50% confirms investors are rotating away from large-cap technology toward more economically sensitive areas. Economic data is delivering mixed signals that warrant close attention, as yesterday's existing home sales plunged 8.4% to 3.91 million units—one of the lowest readings since the 2010-2011 financial crisis recovery period—while this morning's core CPI printed 0.3% monthly versus the 0.2% expected, signaling persistent underlying inflation that may complicate Federal Reserve policy considerations. The accumulation signal list expanded to 30 names including

Key themes: Watch convergence signals closely. Stocks where insiders, institutions, and politicians agree tend to show stronger directional moves.