The Edge - InsiderStreet.ai | February 16, 2026

💬 Word on the Street

While Rep. Michael McCaul (R-TX) quietly added Intuit (INTU) shares worth up to $15,000 to his portfolio, insiders at Diamondback Energy (FANG) were heading for the exits in spectacular fashion—six of them unloading a combined $342.0 million in what might be the week's most telling divergence. With smart money showing an $851.1 million net outflow and the VIX cooling off by 4.4% to settle at 20.8, the positioning tells a story that's worth paying attention to. Here's what smart money is doing today.

🌤️ MARKET WEATHER

Presidential Cycle: Year 2 (2nd Term Year 2) • Donald Trump (R)

We're 33 trading days into Year 2 of a second presidential term, and both SPY and QQQ are running slightly ahead of the typical Year 2 pattern despite modest YTD losses—SPY sits 1.2% above the historical second-term average while tracking 1.6% below its 20-year seasonal norm. Historical data shows Year 2 of second terms has averaged roughly 3.5% gains for the full year, with Q1 typically adding another 1.5% through mid-March, suggesting the market's current positioning aligns closely with past midterm cycles when volatility tends to pick up but institutional money has historically remained measured in its approach. The pattern bears watching as we move deeper into the quarter, particularly given how tightly current performance is hugging those multi-decade averages.

SPY -0.2% YTD

2026 Actual

2nd Term Year 2 Avg

Year 2 Projection

vs 2nd Term Year 2: +1.2%

vs 20yr Seasonal: -1.6%

Day: 33 / 252

QQQ -1.8% YTD

2026 Actual

2nd Term Year 2 Avg

Year 2 Projection

vs 2nd Term Year 2: +0.3%

vs 20yr Seasonal: -4.1%

Day: 33 / 252

📊 2nd Term Year 2 years historically average 3.5% for SPY. Current YTD: -0.2%

📖 HOW TO READ THIS REPORT

The Big Idea: When insiders, institutions, AND politicians all bet on the same stock? That's convergence — and historically, these aligned signals tend to pack more punch than solo moves. We track the smart money so you don't have to.

Signal Badges

ETF Institutional funds adding/removing positions
INSIDER Corporate executives buying/selling their own stock
CONGRESS Politicians making trades (yes, we see you)

Momentum Icons

▲ + Buying Rising Stock: Smart money accumulating as price rises — ideal alignment
+ Buying Falling Stock: Smart money accumulating while price drops — falling knife risk
▲ - Selling Rising Stock: Smart money exiting while price still rising — warning signal
- Selling Falling Stock: Smart money exiting as price drops — confirms downtrend

The Bottom Line: Convergence + aligned momentum = strongest setups. Convergence + divergent momentum = proceed with caution. This isn't financial advice — it's intelligence. What you do with it is on you.

📚 Jargon Buster

Reg T Margin

The basic 50% margin your broker makes you keep. Break it and you get a very angry phone call.

🎯 SMART MONEY CONVERGENCE

📈 Accumulation Detected (10)

TSLA Tesla, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS INSIDER ETF

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +1.5% 3M -3.1% 1Y +24.1%

4 member(s) purchased N/A • 26 insiders purchased $1226.6M • 1228 ETFs increased positions

CRWV CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock ⭐ CONGRESS INSIDER ETF

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +6.8% 3M +12.4%

2 member(s) purchased N/A • 79 insiders purchased $693.2M • 211 ETFs increased positions

PG The Procter & Gamble Company ⭐ CONGRESS INSIDER ETF

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +0.5% 3M +8.1% 1Y -3.7%

7 member(s) purchased N/A • 17 insiders purchased $134.3M • 581 ETFs increased positions

FDS FactSet Research Systems Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS INSIDER ETF

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -0.7% 3M -24.0% 1Y -54.2%

9 member(s) purchased N/A • 24 insiders purchased $111.1M • 272 ETFs increased positions

LLY Eli Lilly and Company ⭐ CONGRESS INSIDER ETF

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -1.7% 3M +2.4% 1Y +20.1%

18 member(s) purchased N/A • 53 insiders purchased $104.2M • 820 ETFs increased positions

SMCI Super Micro Computer, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS INSIDER ETF

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D -11.2% 3M -19.4% 1Y -23.0%

3 member(s) purchased N/A • 2 insiders purchased $90.0M • 359 ETFs increased positions

V Visa Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS INSIDER ETF

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -5.1% 3M -7.3% 1Y -10.2%

10 member(s) purchased N/A • 7 insiders purchased $84.7M • 803 ETFs increased positions

DIS The Walt Disney Company ⭐ CONGRESS INSIDER ETF

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -3.0% 3M -9.0% 1Y -2.4%

2 member(s) purchased N/A • 25 insiders purchased $78.0M • 670 ETFs increased positions

UNP Union Pacific Corporation ⭐ CONGRESS INSIDER ETF

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +3.2% 3M +17.3% 1Y +7.4%

3 member(s) purchased N/A • 34 insiders purchased $64.7M • 572 ETFs increased positions

SRE Sempra ⭐ CONGRESS INSIDER ETF

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +8.5% 3M +3.2% 1Y +18.0%

1 member(s) purchased N/A • 4 insiders purchased $51.0M • 457 ETFs increased positions

😱 VOLATILITY & FEAR

Equity volatility remains elevated with the VIX holding above 20 at 20.82, though declining 4.4% over the past week, suggesting some moderation in fear levels among stock traders. This contrasts sharply with bond market volatility, where the MOVE index sits at a notably low 11.77 after dropping 15.7% week-over-week, indicating minimal concern about interest rate movements. The divergence between elevated equity uncertainty and subdued fixed income volatility reflects a market where stock investors are pricing in risk while bond traders remain relatively calm about rate trajectory.

VIX

20.82

-4.4% WoW

📈

Elevated

MOVE

11.77

-15.7% WoW

📉

Low

|| Market Sutra ||

"You can't outperform a market you emotionally obey."

— Fear-driven capitulation in March 2020 cost retail the entire rebound.

📊 MARKET REGIME

The current market regime shows a pronounced rotation into defensive and commodity-linked sectors, with Materials, Consumer Staples, and Energy leading while growth-oriented Technology and Communication Services lag significantly. Market breadth reveals a notable divergence between indices, as the tech-heavy QQQ registers only 50% participation compared to 81% in transports, suggesting investors are favoring economically sensitive and value-oriented areas of the market. This positioning typically emerges when market participants anticipate shifts in economic conditions or monetary policy, though the mixed breadth signals indicate participants remain divided on near-term direction.

Sector Strength

🧱 Materials

100.0%

+3.5%

🛒 Consumer Staples

94.4%

+1.8%

⛽ Energy

90.9%

+2.0%

⚡ Utilities

90.3%

+7.3%

🏭 Industrials

77.2%

+0.6%

🔌 Semiconductors

76.0%

+1.5%

🏠 Real Estate

74.2%

+3.6%

🛍️ Consumer Discretionary

63.3%

-1.6%

🏥 Healthcare

51.7%

+0.0%

💻 Technology

45.7%

-1.1%

🏦 Financials

44.6%

-4.8%

📡 Communication

34.8%

-1.0%

📈 INDEX BREADTH

SPY

65.0%

BULLISH

QQQ

49.5%

NEUTRAL

DIA

66.7%

BULLISH

IYT

81.4%

BULLISH

💧 FED LIQUIDITY

Net Liquidity: $6.62 Trillion

↑ $16.5B WoW

As of February 11, Fed net liquidity stands at $6.62 trillion, up $16.5 billion week-over-week, indicating a modest expansion in system liquidity that historically correlates with supportive conditions for risk assets. The next H.4.1 data release drops Thursday, February 19, which will show whether this liquidity expansion continues or reverses.

📅 ECONOMIC CALENDAR Surprise Index: +1.4

January's headline inflation data came in largely as expected with the year-over-year rate holding at 2.4%, but the monthly core CPI reading of 0.3% versus the 0.2% estimate represents a meaningful acceleration that keeps the Fed's path to rate cuts uncertain—core inflation running at this pace would annualize above 3.5%, well beyond the 2% target. The modest improvement in S&P 500 speculative positioning from -132.9K to -105.1K net short contracts suggests some trimming of bearish bets, though the heavily negative positioning remains notable as traders continue hedging against downside risk. Tomorrow's retail sales data will be critical after December's sharp -0.8% monthly drop, with markets watching for signs that consumer spending stabilized in January, while the Empire State manufacturing index is expected to pull back from 7.7 to 3.0, continuing the manufacturing sector's struggle amid tariff uncertainty and elevated rates.

Yesterday — Friday, February 13

10 events · 2 misses

13:30 Inflation Rate YoY (Jan) 2.4% vs 2.4% est

13:30 CPI s.a (Jan) 326.588 vs 326.3 est

13:30 Core Inflation Rate MoM (Jan) 0.3% vs 0.2% est

13:30 CPI (Jan) 325.25 vs 325.3 est

13:30 Inflation Rate MoM (Jan) 0.2% vs 0.1% est

13:30 Core Inflation Rate YoY (Jan) 2.5% vs 2.5% est

20:30 CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions -105.1K vs NoneK est

20:30 CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions 13.4K vs NoneK est

20:30 CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions 117.8K vs NoneK est

20:30 CFTC Gold Speculative net positions 160.0K vs NoneK est

Today — Monday, February 16

1 events · 1 upcoming

13:25 Fed Bowman Speech Pending

Tomorrow — Tuesday, February 17

8 events · 0 high impact

13:30 Retail Sales MoM (Jan) prev -0.8

13:30 Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM (Jan) prev -0.4

13:30 NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Feb) est 3.0 / prev 7.7

15:00 Business Inventories MoM (Dec) prev 0.3

15:00 NAHB Housing Market Index (Feb) est 41.0 / prev 37.0

17:45 Fed Barr Speech Pending

19:30 Fed Daly Speech Pending

21:30 API Crude Oil Stock Change (Feb/13) Pending

🏦 INSTITUTIONAL FLOW

**Institutional Flow Summary:** ETFs showed mixed positioning in mega-cap growth and healthcare names, with TSLA seeing net additions across 526 ETFs, AVGO attracting 146 net buyers despite heavy two-way flow, and LLY recording 170 net additions as institutions rotated within semiconductor and GLP-1 pharmaceutical positions. The balanced 10-to-10 add/remove ratio across the broader market indicates institutional repositioning rather than directional conviction, with concentrated activity in electric vehicles, AI infrastructure semiconductors, and diabetes/obesity treatment sectors.

Top Buying

TSLA Tesla, Inc. ⭐

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +1.5% 3M -3.1% 1Y +24.1%

1228 ETFs • 0 shares

AVGO Broadcom Inc. ⭐

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -2.3% 3M -8.5% 1Y +38.0%

1051 ETFs • 0 shares

LLY Eli Lilly and Company ⭐

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -1.7% 3M +2.4% 1Y +20.1%

820 ETFs • 0 shares

CRM Salesforce, Inc. ⭐

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -0.9% 3M -22.8% 1Y -41.5%

813 ETFs • 0 shares

V Visa Inc. ⭐

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -5.1% 3M -7.3% 1Y -10.2%

803 ETFs • 0 shares

Top Selling

AVGO Broadcom Inc. ⭐

- Selling Falling Stock 5D -2.3% 3M -8.5% 1Y +38.0%

905 ETFs • 0 shares

TSLA Tesla, Inc. ⭐

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +1.5% 3M -3.1% 1Y +24.1%

702 ETFs • 0 shares

LLY Eli Lilly and Company ⭐

- Selling Falling Stock 5D -1.7% 3M +2.4% 1Y +20.1%

650 ETFs • 0 shares

V Visa Inc. ⭐

- Selling Falling Stock 5D -5.1% 3M -7.3% 1Y -10.2%

562 ETFs • 0 shares

CRM Salesforce, Inc. ⭐

- Selling Falling Stock 5D -0.9% 3M -22.8% 1Y -41.5%

533 ETFs • 0 shares

🏛️ CONGRESSIONAL TRADES

Rep. Michael McCaul executed multiple transactions, purchasing shares of INTU and WDAY while selling ASML, indicating active portfolio rebalancing in the technology sector. Rep. John McGuire made opposing moves in major tech holdings, adding to NVDA while reducing his MSFT position, and Rep. April Delaney sold PTC shares.

Top Buying

INTU Intuit Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -10.0% 3M -39.4% 1Y -30.4%

Rep. Michael McCaul (Michael McCaul) • $1,001 - $15,000

WDAY Workday, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -11.4% 3M -36.1% 1Y -44.0%

Rep. Michael McCaul (Michael McCaul) • $1,001 - $15,000

NVDA NVIDIA Corporation ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D -1.4% 3M -5.7% 1Y +39.4%

Rep. John McGuire (John McGuire) • $1,001 - $15,000

MELI MercadoLibre, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +0.9% 3M -5.5% 1Y -1.4%

Rep. Michael McCaul (Michael McCaul) • $1,001 - $15,000

SAP SAP SE ⭐ CONGRESS

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +0.7% 3M -19.2% 1Y -29.2%

Rep. Michael McCaul (Michael McCaul) • $1,001 - $15,000

Top Selling

MSFT Microsoft Corporation ⭐ CONGRESS

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +0.0% 3M -21.3% 1Y -1.2%

Rep. John McGuire (John McGuire) • $1,001 - $15,000

ASML ASML Holding N.V. ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -0.3% 3M +35.6% 1Y +87.3%

Rep. Michael McCaul (Michael McCaul) • $1,001 - $15,000

PTC PTC Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +0.7% 3M -12.0% 1Y -5.9%

Rep. April Delaney (April Delaney) • $1,001 - $15,000

WAB Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +4.0% 3M +22.1% 1Y +36.0%

Rep. April Delaney (April Delaney) • $1,001 - $15,000

PG The Procter & Gamble Company ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +0.5% 3M +8.1% 1Y -3.7%

Rep. David Taylor (David Taylor) • $1,001 - $15,000

👔 INSIDER ACTIVITY

Lamb Weston (LW) saw concentrated buying activity with 26 insiders making purchases, while Raytheon Technologies (RTX) and Eli Lilly (LLY) recorded 18 and 14 insider purchases respectively. On the selling side, Diamondback Energy (FANG) had 6 insiders offload $342.0M in shares, followed by Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR) where 43 insiders sold $252.3M and Wynn Resorts (WYNN) with 15 insiders disposing of $249.8M in stock.

Cluster Buying

LW Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D -0.6% 3M -14.8% 1Y -10.1%

26 insiders • $224.2M

RTX RTX Corporation ⭐ INSIDER

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +0.7% 3M +13.0% 1Y +60.7%

18 insiders • $110.3M

LLY Eli Lilly and Company ⭐ INSIDER

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -1.7% 3M +2.4% 1Y +20.1%

14 insiders • $101.7M

NFRX Harrison Street Infrastructure Active ETF ⭐ INSIDER

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +5.1%

6 insiders • $90.0M

MDLZ Mondelez International, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +4.3% 3M +9.8% 1Y +5.6%

10 insiders • $83.5M

Heavy Selling

FANG Diamondback Energy, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +1.3% 3M +16.5% 1Y +11.9%

6 insiders • $342.0M

MPWR Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -4.7% 3M +22.2% 1Y +68.6%

43 insiders • $252.3M

WYNN Wynn Resorts, Limited ⭐ INSIDER

- Selling Falling Stock 5D -3.9% 3M -9.1% 1Y +46.1%

15 insiders • $249.8M

BANC Banc of California, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -4.1% 3M +16.1% 1Y +29.4%

3 insiders • $237.0M

SYK Stryker Corporation ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +2.2% 3M -0.3% 1Y -4.4%

19 insiders • $181.9M

📅 EARNINGS CALENDAR

Yesterday's session saw significant moves in MGA, which surged 27.2%, and MG.TO, which climbed 24.2%, while CIGI.TO declined 22.9%. Among today's 215 reporting companies, BDMN.JK and 084370.KQ are showing accumulation signals ahead of their prints, while 5108.T and 4704.T are exhibiting distribution patterns. With 329 companies set to report tomorrow, institutional positioning around these earnings events continues to show divergent activity across sectors.

📊 Previous Earnings — February 13, 2026

230 reported • ✅ 15 beats • ❌ 5 misses

MGA Magna International Inc. ⭐ BEAT +27.2%

50

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

EPS: $2.18 vs $1.78 est (+22.5%)

MG.TO Magna International Inc. ⭐ BEAT +24.2%

50

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

EPS: $2.97 vs $1.79 est (+65.9%)

CIGI.TO Colliers International Group Inc. ⭐ BEAT -22.9%

30

+ Buying Falling Stock

EPS: $3.19 vs $2.42 est (+31.8%)

CIGI Colliers International Group Inc. ⭐ MISS -18.8%

30

+ Buying Falling Stock

EPS: $1.87 vs $2.24 est (-16.5%)

IP.MI Interpump Group S.p.A. ⭐ MISS -16.0%

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

EPS: $0.34 vs $0.43 est (-19.4%)

SMCRT.OL SmartCraft ASA ⭐ MISS -13.3%

30

+ Buying Falling Stock

EPS: $0.10 vs $0.16 est (-34.0%)

KNBWY Kirin Holdings Company, Limited ⭐ BEAT +12.4%

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

EPS: $0.36 vs $0.30 est (+20.0%)

NWG NatWest Group plc ⭐ BEAT -11.3%

30

+ Buying Falling Stock

EPS: $0.46 vs $0.37 est (+24.3%)

ENB Enbridge Inc. ⭐ BEAT +7.1%

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

EPS: $0.63 vs $0.57 est (+10.5%)

WEN The Wendy's Company ⭐ BEAT -6.7%

30

+ Buying Falling Stock

EPS: $0.16 vs $0.14 est (+14.3%)

🎯 Reporting Today — February 16, 2026

215 reporting • Smart Money:

107 acc •

53 dist •

55 neut

BDMN.JK PT Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

084370.KQ Eugene Technology Co.,Ltd. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

0005.HK HSBC Holdings plc ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

112610.KS CS Wind Corporation ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

137400.KQ People & Technology Inc. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

036830.KQ Soulbrain Holdings Co., Ltd. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

093370.KS Foosung Co., Ltd. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

102940.KQ Kolon Life Science Inc. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

002240.KS Kiswire Ltd. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

KCHOL.IS Koç Holding A.S. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

2344.TW Winbond Electronics Corporation ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

FROTO.IS Ford Otomotiv Sanayi A.S. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

072710.KS Nongshim Holdings Co.,Ltd. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

4631.T DIC Corporation ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

015860.KS ILJIN Holdings Co., Ltd. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

📌 Next Earnings — February 17, 2026

329 reporting • Smart Money:

186 acc •

73 dist •

70 neut

RIO.BA Rio Tinto Group ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

5101.T The Yokohama Rubber Co., Ltd. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

041960.KQ Komipharm International Co., Ltd. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

138490.KS Kolon Plastics, Inc. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

VALE3.SA Vale S.A. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

004985.KS Sungshin Cement Co., Ltd ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

009160.KS SIMPAC Inc. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

004980.KS Sungshin Cement Co., Ltd ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

7010.SR Saudi Telecom Company ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

ANET Arista Networks, Inc. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

📝 Today's Summary

Smart money activity reveals divergent conviction across different market participant classes, with institutional flows showing measured repositioning rather than directional bets as evidenced by the balanced 10-to-10 add/remove ratio across ETF holdings. Institutions added to positions in Tesla (TSLA) across 526 ETFs, Broadcom (AVGO) attracted 146 net buyers despite heavy two-way flow, and Eli Lilly (LLY) recorded 170 net additions as funds rotated within semiconductor and GLP-1 pharmaceutical positions. Corporate insiders at Lamb Weston (LW) demonstrated notable confidence with 26 purchase transactions, while Raytheon Technologies (RTX) and Eli Lilly (LLY) saw 18 and 14 insider purchases respectively, contrasting sharply with significant selling at Diamondback Energy (FANG) where 6 insiders offloaded $342.0 million, Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR) where 43 insiders sold $252.3 million, and Wynn Resorts (WYNN) with 15 insiders disposing of $249.8 million in stock. Congressional activity added another layer to the technology sector narrative as Rep. Michael McCaul purchased shares of Intuit (INTU) and Workday (WDAY) while selling ASML, Rep. John McGuire added to NVIDIA (NVDA) while reducing Microsoft (MSFT), and Rep. April Delaney sold PTC shares, collectively signaling active rebalancing within software and semiconductor holdings. The market finds itself 33 trading days into Year 2 of a second presidential term with SPY running 1.2% above the historical second-term average despite sitting 1.6% below its 20-year seasonal norm, a positioning that aligns closely with past midterm cycles where Year 2 has averaged roughly 3.5% gains for the full year with Q1 typically adding another 1.5% through mid-March. The VIX holding above 20 at 20.82—though declining 4.4% over the past week—contrasts sharply with the MOVE index sitting at a notably low 11.77 after dropping 15.7% week-over-week, creating a divergence where equity investors are pricing in risk while bond traders remain relatively calm about rate trajectory. Sector rotation has turned decidedly defensive and commodity-linked with Materials, Consumer Staples, and Energy leading while growth-oriented Technology and Communication Services lag significantly, and market breadth reveals this shift dramatically as the tech-heavy QQQ registers only 50% participation compared to 81% in transports, suggesting investors are favoring economically sensitive and value-oriented areas over growth names. Tomorrow's retail sales data becomes critical after December's sharp negative 0.8% monthly drop, with markets needing evidence that consumer spending stabilized in January following core CPI's monthly acceleration to 0.3% versus the 0.2% estimate—a pace that would annualize above 3.5% and keep the Federal Reserve's path to rate cuts uncertain. The divergence between

Key themes: Watch convergence signals closely. Stocks where insiders, institutions, and politicians agree tend to show stronger directional moves.