The Edge
Know What They Know
💬 Word on the Street
While Rep. Michael McCaul (R-TX) quietly added Intuit (INTU) shares worth up to $15,000 to his portfolio, insiders at Diamondback Energy (FANG) were heading for the exits in spectacular fashion—six of them unloading a combined $342.0 million in what might be the week's most telling divergence. With smart money showing an $851.1 million net outflow and the VIX cooling off by 4.4% to settle at 20.8, the positioning tells a story that's worth paying attention to. Here's what smart money is doing today.
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0We're 33 trading days into Year 2 of a second presidential term, and both SPY and QQQ are running slightly ahead of the typical Year 2 pattern despite modest YTD losses—SPY sits 1.2% above the historical second-term average while tracking 1.6% below its 20-year seasonal norm. Historical data shows Year 2 of second terms has averaged roughly 3.5% gains for the full year, with Q1 typically adding another 1.5% through mid-March, suggesting the market's current positioning aligns closely with past midterm cycles when volatility tends to pick up but institutional money has historically remained measured in its approach. The pattern bears watching as we move deeper into the quarter, particularly given how tightly current performance is hugging those multi-decade averages.
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TSLA
Tesla, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
+ Buying Falling Stock
5D +1.5%
3M -3.1%
1Y +24.1%
CRWV
CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
▲ + Buying Rising Stock
5D +6.8%
3M +12.4%
PG
The Procter & Gamble Company
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
▲ + Buying Rising Stock
5D +0.5%
3M +8.1%
1Y -3.7%
Equity volatility remains elevated with the VIX holding above 20 at 20.82, though declining 4.4% over the past week, suggesting some moderation in fear levels among stock traders. This contrasts sharply with bond market volatility, where the MOVE index sits at a notably low 11.77 after dropping 15.7% week-over-week, indicating minimal concern about interest rate movements. The divergence between elevated equity uncertainty and subdued fixed income volatility reflects a market where stock investors are pricing in risk while bond traders remain relatively calm about rate trajectory.
|| Market Sutra ||
"You can't outperform a market you emotionally obey."
— Fear-driven capitulation in March 2020 cost retail the entire rebound.
The current market regime shows a pronounced rotation into defensive and commodity-linked sectors, with Materials, Consumer Staples, and Energy leading while growth-oriented Technology and Communication Services lag significantly. Market breadth reveals a notable divergence between indices, as the tech-heavy QQQ registers only 50% participation compared to 81% in transports, suggesting investors are favoring economically sensitive and value-oriented areas of the market. This positioning typically emerges when market participants anticipate shifts in economic conditions or monetary policy, though the mixed breadth signals indicate participants remain divided on near-term direction.
As of February 11, Fed net liquidity stands at $6.62 trillion, up $16.5 billion week-over-week, indicating a modest expansion in system liquidity that historically correlates with supportive conditions for risk assets. The next H.4.1 data release drops Thursday, February 19, which will show whether this liquidity expansion continues or reverses.
January's headline inflation data came in largely as expected with the year-over-year rate holding at 2.4%, but the monthly core CPI reading of 0.3% versus the 0.2% estimate represents a meaningful acceleration that keeps the Fed's path to rate cuts uncertain—core inflation running at this pace would annualize above 3.5%, well beyond the 2% target. The modest improvement in S&P 500 speculative positioning from -132.9K to -105.1K net short contracts suggests some trimming of bearish bets, though the heavily negative positioning remains notable as traders continue hedging against downside risk. Tomorrow's retail sales data will be critical after December's sharp -0.8% monthly drop, with markets watching for signs that consumer spending stabilized in January, while the Empire State manufacturing index is expected to pull back from 7.7 to 3.0, continuing the manufacturing sector's struggle amid tariff uncertainty and elevated rates.
**Institutional Flow Summary:** ETFs showed mixed positioning in mega-cap growth and healthcare names, with TSLA seeing net additions across 526 ETFs, AVGO attracting 146 net buyers despite heavy two-way flow, and LLY recording 170 net additions as institutions rotated within semiconductor and GLP-1 pharmaceutical positions. The balanced 10-to-10 add/remove ratio across the broader market indicates institutional repositioning rather than directional conviction, with concentrated activity in electric vehicles, AI infrastructure semiconductors, and diabetes/obesity treatment sectors.
TSLA
Tesla, Inc.
⭐
+ Buying Falling Stock
5D +1.5%
3M -3.1%
1Y +24.1%
AVGO
Broadcom Inc.
⭐
+ Buying Falling Stock
5D -2.3%
3M -8.5%
1Y +38.0%
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
⭐
+ Buying Falling Stock
5D -1.7%
3M +2.4%
1Y +20.1%
AVGO
Broadcom Inc.
⭐
- Selling Falling Stock
5D -2.3%
3M -8.5%
1Y +38.0%
TSLA
Tesla, Inc.
⭐
- Selling Falling Stock
5D +1.5%
3M -3.1%
1Y +24.1%
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
⭐
- Selling Falling Stock
5D -1.7%
3M +2.4%
1Y +20.1%
Rep. Michael McCaul executed multiple transactions, purchasing shares of INTU and WDAY while selling ASML, indicating active portfolio rebalancing in the technology sector. Rep. John McGuire made opposing moves in major tech holdings, adding to NVDA while reducing his MSFT position, and Rep. April Delaney sold PTC shares.
INTU
Intuit Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
+ Buying Falling Stock
5D -10.0%
3M -39.4%
1Y -30.4%
WDAY
Workday, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
+ Buying Falling Stock
5D -11.4%
3M -36.1%
1Y -44.0%
NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation
⭐
CONGRESS
▲ + Buying Rising Stock
5D -1.4%
3M -5.7%
1Y +39.4%
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
⭐
CONGRESS
- Selling Falling Stock
5D +0.0%
3M -21.3%
1Y -1.2%
ASML
ASML Holding N.V.
⭐
CONGRESS
▲ - Selling Rising Stock
5D -0.3%
3M +35.6%
1Y +87.3%
PTC
PTC Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
- Selling Falling Stock
5D +0.7%
3M -12.0%
1Y -5.9%
Lamb Weston (LW) saw concentrated buying activity with 26 insiders making purchases, while Raytheon Technologies (RTX) and Eli Lilly (LLY) recorded 18 and 14 insider purchases respectively. On the selling side, Diamondback Energy (FANG) had 6 insiders offload $342.0M in shares, followed by Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR) where 43 insiders sold $252.3M and Wynn Resorts (WYNN) with 15 insiders disposing of $249.8M in stock.
LW
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.
⭐
INSIDER
▲ + Buying Rising Stock
5D -0.6%
3M -14.8%
1Y -10.1%
RTX
RTX Corporation
⭐
INSIDER
▲ + Buying Rising Stock
5D +0.7%
3M +13.0%
1Y +60.7%
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
⭐
INSIDER
+ Buying Falling Stock
5D -1.7%
3M +2.4%
1Y +20.1%
FANG
Diamondback Energy, Inc.
⭐
INSIDER
▲ - Selling Rising Stock
5D +1.3%
3M +16.5%
1Y +11.9%
MPWR
Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.
⭐
INSIDER
▲ - Selling Rising Stock
5D -4.7%
3M +22.2%
1Y +68.6%
WYNN
Wynn Resorts, Limited
⭐
INSIDER
- Selling Falling Stock
5D -3.9%
3M -9.1%
1Y +46.1%
Yesterday's session saw significant moves in MGA, which surged 27.2%, and MG.TO, which climbed 24.2%, while CIGI.TO declined 22.9%. Among today's 215 reporting companies, BDMN.JK and 084370.KQ are showing accumulation signals ahead of their prints, while 5108.T and 4704.T are exhibiting distribution patterns. With 329 companies set to report tomorrow, institutional positioning around these earnings events continues to show divergent activity across sectors.