The Edge - InsiderStreet.ai | February 17, 2026

💬 Word on the Street

Rep. Gilbert Cisneros (D-CA) added a modest stake in Macy's Inc. (MHVIY) worth up to $15,000 while insiders at Diamondback Energy (FANG) collectively unloaded $341.6 million in what's shaping up to be a classic tale of two conviction levels. With smart money showing a net $633.6 million outflow today and the VIX cooling off by 4.4%, the divergence between what Washington is accumulating and what corporate executives are ditching tells an interesting story. Here's what smart money is doing today.

🌤️ MARKET WEATHER

Presidential Cycle: Year 2 (2nd Term Year 2) • Donald Trump (R)

We're 34 trading days into Year 2 of Trump's second term, and while SPY sits slightly negative at -0.2% YTD, it's actually running 1.4% ahead of the typical second-term second-year pattern at this point in the cycle. The catch is we're trailing the 20-year seasonal average by 1.4%, though history suggests Year 2 tends to be the weakest of the four-year presidential cycle with full-year returns averaging just 3.5% for SPY. If the historical playbook holds, we'd typically see another 1.5% tacked on through mid-March in Q1, though that forward projection assumes we follow the seasonal script—and with QQQ lagging at -1.8% YTD, tech appears to be the relative underperformer versus the broader market's second-term pattern.

SPY -0.2% YTD

2026 Actual

2nd Term Year 2 Avg

Year 2 Projection

vs 2nd Term Year 2: +1.4%

vs 20yr Seasonal: -1.4%

Day: 34 / 252

QQQ -1.8% YTD

2026 Actual

2nd Term Year 2 Avg

Year 2 Projection

vs 2nd Term Year 2: +0.7%

vs 20yr Seasonal: -3.7%

Day: 34 / 252

📊 2nd Term Year 2 years historically average 3.5% for SPY. Current YTD: -0.2%

📖 HOW TO READ THIS REPORT

The Big Idea: When insiders, institutions, AND politicians all bet on the same stock? That's convergence — and historically, these aligned signals tend to pack more punch than solo moves. We track the smart money so you don't have to.

Signal Badges

ETF Institutional funds adding/removing positions
INSIDER Corporate executives buying/selling their own stock
CONGRESS Politicians making trades (yes, we see you)

Momentum Icons

▲ + Buying Rising Stock: Smart money accumulating as price rises — ideal alignment
+ Buying Falling Stock: Smart money accumulating while price drops — falling knife risk
▲ - Selling Rising Stock: Smart money exiting while price still rising — warning signal
- Selling Falling Stock: Smart money exiting as price drops — confirms downtrend

The Bottom Line: Convergence + aligned momentum = strongest setups. Convergence + divergent momentum = proceed with caution. This isn't financial advice — it's intelligence. What you do with it is on you.

📚 Jargon Buster

Portfolio Margin

Fancy margin for grown-ups with options. Lets you lever way more… until everything correlates and you blow up spectacularly.

🎯 SMART MONEY CONVERGENCE

📈 Accumulation Detected (10)

ORCL Oracle Corporation ⭐ CONGRESS INSIDER ETF

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +12.1% 3M -29.4% 1Y -6.3%

5 member(s) purchased N/A • 4 insiders purchased $1400.0M • 852 ETFs increased positions

TSLA Tesla, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS INSIDER ETF

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +1.5% 3M -3.1% 1Y +24.1%

3 member(s) purchased N/A • 26 insiders purchased $1226.6M • 1228 ETFs increased positions

CRWV CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock ⭐ CONGRESS INSIDER ETF

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +6.8% 3M +12.4%

2 member(s) purchased N/A • 79 insiders purchased $693.2M • 211 ETFs increased positions

PG The Procter & Gamble Company ⭐ CONGRESS INSIDER ETF

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +0.6% 3M +8.2% 1Y -3.7%

7 member(s) purchased N/A • 17 insiders purchased $134.3M • 581 ETFs increased positions

FDS FactSet Research Systems Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS INSIDER ETF

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -0.7% 3M -24.0% 1Y -54.2%

9 member(s) purchased N/A • 24 insiders purchased $111.1M • 272 ETFs increased positions

LLY Eli Lilly and Company ⭐ CONGRESS INSIDER ETF

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -1.6% 3M +2.3% 1Y +20.0%

18 member(s) purchased N/A • 53 insiders purchased $104.2M • 820 ETFs increased positions

DASH DoorDash, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS INSIDER ETF

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -12.1% 3M -18.4% 1Y -20.2%

7 member(s) purchased N/A • 11 insiders purchased $100.3M • 550 ETFs increased positions

SMCI Super Micro Computer, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS INSIDER ETF

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D -11.2% 3M -19.4% 1Y -23.0%

3 member(s) purchased N/A • 2 insiders purchased $90.0M • 359 ETFs increased positions

V Visa Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS INSIDER ETF

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -5.1% 3M -7.3% 1Y -10.2%

10 member(s) purchased N/A • 7 insiders purchased $84.7M • 803 ETFs increased positions

DIS The Walt Disney Company ⭐ CONGRESS INSIDER ETF

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -3.0% 3M -9.0% 1Y -2.4%

2 member(s) purchased N/A • 25 insiders purchased $78.0M • 670 ETFs increased positions

😱 VOLATILITY & FEAR

Market volatility presents a mixed picture this week, with equity fear gauges showing elevated concern while bond market stress remains subdued. The VIX declined 4.4% to 20.82, holding in elevated territory above the 20 level that typically signals heightened investor nervousness about stock market swings, while the MOVE index dropped more sharply by 15.7% to 11.77, indicating unusually calm conditions in Treasury markets. This divergence suggests equity investors are pricing in near-term uncertainty while bond traders appear relatively untroubled by rate volatility risks.

VIX

20.82

-4.4% WoW

📈

Elevated

MOVE

11.77

-15.7% WoW

📉

Low

|| Market Sutra ||

"When the crowd becomes certain, the market becomes dangerous."

— Everyone believed rates would stay zero indefinitely—right before the 2022 rate shock.

📊 MARKET REGIME

Market participation shows a notable divergence between old economy and growth sectors, with Materials, Consumer Staples, and Energy demonstrating the strongest relative performance while Technology, Financials, and Communication sectors significantly lag. Breadth metrics reveal uneven participation across major indices, as the Nasdaq 100 shows considerably weaker internal strength at 50% compared to the transport-heavy IYT at 81%, suggesting a potential rotation away from mega-cap technology names. This performance pattern typically characterizes periods when investors favor defensive and commodity-linked exposures over growth and rate-sensitive areas of the market.

Sector Strength

🧱 Materials

100.0%

+3.5%

🛒 Consumer Staples

94.4%

+1.8%

⛽ Energy

90.9%

+2.1%

⚡ Utilities

90.3%

+7.3%

🏭 Industrials

77.2%

+0.6%

🔌 Semiconductors

76.0%

+1.5%

🏠 Real Estate

74.2%

+3.6%

🛍️ Consumer Discretionary

63.3%

-1.5%

🏥 Healthcare

51.7%

+0.0%

💻 Technology

45.7%

-1.1%

🏦 Financials

44.6%

-4.8%

📡 Communication

34.8%

-1.0%

📈 INDEX BREADTH

SPY

65.0%

BULLISH

QQQ

49.5%

NEUTRAL

DIA

66.7%

BULLISH

IYT

81.4%

BULLISH

💧 FED LIQUIDITY

Net Liquidity: $6.62 Trillion

↑ $16.5B WoW

As of February 11, Fed net liquidity stood at $6.62 trillion, declining $16.5 billion week-over-week, which typically corresponds to tighter financial conditions as fewer dollars chase risk assets. The next H.4.1 report releases Thursday, February 19, providing updated figures on the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and liquidity measures that institutional traders monitor for shifts in market structure.

📅 ECONOMIC CALENDAR Surprise Index: +1.4

Markets are digesting another weak retail sales print from January that came in at -0.8% MoM, marking the second consecutive monthly decline and reinforcing concerns about consumer spending momentum heading into 2024, while the Economic Surprise Index slipped to +1.4 from +1.6 a week ago, showing data is barely tracking expectations. Today's retail sales report will be critical as traders assess whether consumers extended their pullback, with housing data also in focus as the NAHB index is expected to tick up modestly to 41.0 from 37.0—still deeply in contraction territory and sitting near levels last seen during the 2008-2009 financial crisis outside of the pandemic shock. Tomorrow's housing starts (estimated at 1.29M versus 1.366M prior) and FOMC minutes will command attention, particularly as the minutes could reveal Fed members' thinking on how persistent consumer weakness and a housing market that's been contracting for months factors into their rate path deliberations.

Yesterday — Monday, February 16

1 events

Today — Tuesday, February 17

8 events · 8 upcoming

13:30 NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Feb) est 3.0 / prev 7.7

13:30 Retail Sales MoM (Jan) prev -0.8

13:30 Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM (Jan) prev -0.4

15:00 Business Inventories MoM (Dec) prev 0.3

15:00 NAHB Housing Market Index (Feb) est 41.0 / prev 37.0

17:45 Fed Barr Speech Pending

19:30 Fed Daly Speech Pending

21:30 API Crude Oil Stock Change (Feb/13) Pending

Tomorrow — Wednesday, February 18

21 events · 5 high impact

12:00 MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Feb/13) prev 6.21

13:30 Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM (Dec) est 0.3% / prev 0.5%

13:30 Export Prices MoM (Jan) prev 1.3

13:30 Housing Starts MoM (Jan) prev -9.8

13:30 Housing Starts MoM (Dec) est -4.4% / prev -4.6%

13:30 Durable Goods Orders MoM (Dec) est -3.4% / prev 5.3%

13:30 Building Permits (Jan) prev -0.6

13:30 Building Permits (Nov) est -3.6% / prev -0.3%

13:30 Housing Starts (Jan) prev 1.366

13:30 Import Prices MoM (Jan) prev 0.3

13:30 Housing Starts (Dec) est 1.29M / prev 1.246M

13:30 Building Permits (Dec) est -3.7% / prev 1.411%

13:30 Housing Starts (Nov) est 1.27M / prev 1.246M

13:30 Housing Starts MoM (Nov) est 1.9% / prev -4.6%

14:15 Industrial Production MoM (Jan) est 0.5% / prev 0.4%

15:00 NAHB Housing Market Index (Feb) prev 42.0

16:00 Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) est 3.7% / prev 3.7%

18:00 Fed Bowman Speech Pending

19:00 FOMC Minutes Pending

21:00 Net Long-Term TIC Flows (Dec) prev 220.2

21:30 API Crude Oil Stock Change (Feb/13) prev 13.4

🏦 INSTITUTIONAL FLOW

Institutional flows this week show a split decision on mega-cap technology, with 1,228 ETFs adding Tesla positions while 905 funds reduced Broadcom exposure, suggesting rotation within the semiconductor and EV spaces. Palantir attracted 890 new ETF positions as funds appeared to shift from established pharmaceutical plays like Eli Lilly (650 ETFs reducing) into AI-leveraged software infrastructure.

Top Buying

TSLA Tesla, Inc. ⭐

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +1.5% 3M -3.1% 1Y +24.1%

1228 ETFs • 0 shares

AVGO Broadcom Inc. ⭐

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -2.3% 3M -8.5% 1Y +38.0%

1051 ETFs • 0 shares

PLTR Palantir Technologies Inc. ⭐

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -3.3% 3M -28.6% 1Y +11.9%

890 ETFs • 0 shares

ORCL Oracle Corporation ⭐

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +12.1% 3M -29.4% 1Y -6.3%

852 ETFs • 0 shares

LLY Eli Lilly and Company ⭐

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -1.6% 3M +2.3% 1Y +20.0%

820 ETFs • 0 shares

Top Selling

AVGO Broadcom Inc. ⭐

- Selling Falling Stock 5D -2.3% 3M -8.5% 1Y +38.0%

905 ETFs • 0 shares

TSLA Tesla, Inc. ⭐

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +1.5% 3M -3.1% 1Y +24.1%

702 ETFs • 0 shares

LLY Eli Lilly and Company ⭐

- Selling Falling Stock 5D -1.6% 3M +2.3% 1Y +20.0%

650 ETFs • 0 shares

V Visa Inc. ⭐

- Selling Falling Stock 5D -5.1% 3M -7.3% 1Y -10.2%

562 ETFs • 0 shares

CRM Salesforce, Inc. ⭐

- Selling Falling Stock 5D -0.8% 3M -22.8% 1Y -41.4%

533 ETFs • 0 shares

🏛️ CONGRESSIONAL TRADES

Rep. Gilbert Cisneros purchased positions in three international stocks—MHVIY, BABA, and AJINY—indicating activity in foreign equities. Meanwhile, Rep. John McGuire sold MSFT and Sen. John Boozman reduced holdings in IVW and FISV, representing divestment from large-cap technology and financial services positions.

Top Buying