The Edge

🐷 PIG ROAST

💬 Word on the Street

While Rep. Gilbert Cisneros (D-CA) quietly scooped up shares of Medibank Private Limited (MHVIY) in the $1,001 to $15,000 range, Amkor Technology (AMKR) insiders dumped a staggering $969.8 million worth of stock—and that's just the warm-up act. After hours, Masimo Corporation (MASI) went parabolic with a 34.2% rocket to $174.69, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) jumped 12.2% to $24.10 on Elliott Management's activist play, and ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (ZIM) exploded 25.4% to $27.85 on merger whispers, all while smart money posted a hefty $1.2 billion net outflow and the VIX spiked 22.1% to 21.2. Here's what smart money is doing today.

📚 Jargon Buster

Hard to Borrow

Shares so scarce that shorting them costs you an arm and a leg. Usually right before the mother of all squeezes.

Equity market volatility showed signs of stress this week, with the VIX climbing 22.1% to reach 21.20, placing it in elevated fear territory as investors priced in increased uncertainty around stocks. This contrasts sharply with bond market volatility, where the MOVE index declined 15.2% to 11.45, suggesting relatively calm conditions in fixed income markets. The divergence between equity and bond volatility indicators reflects a market environment where concern appears concentrated in equities while Treasury markets remain comparatively stable.

|| Market Sutra ||

"The chart shows price; the tape shows intention."

— Apple's tape in 2020 revealed steady accumulation despite volatility.

Market breadth shows a defensive rotation with Materials, Utilities, and Consumer Staples leading at 90% or above, while growth-oriented sectors like Technology, Financials, and Communication lag significantly below 50%. The divergence between QQQ's weaker 50% breadth and the broader market's mid-60s readings reflects this shift away from mega-cap tech, though transports are showing relative strength at 79%. This positioning suggests institutional money is currently favoring traditionally defensive sectors over the growth and cyclical names that dominated recent rallies.

As of February 11, the Fed's net liquidity stood at $6.62 trillion, increasing $16.5 billion from the prior week, with the next H.4.1 release scheduled for Thursday, February 19. This week-over-week expansion in liquidity typically corresponds with more accommodative financial conditions, as increased liquidity flowing through the system generally reduces funding stress and supports asset price stability.

Yesterday's data painted a mixed picture as the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index climbed to 7.1 versus the 3.0 estimate, marking continued recovery in regional factory activity, while the NAHB Housing Market Index disappointed at 36.0 against 41.0 expected—staying near its lowest levels since the pandemic outside of late 2022, reflecting persistent affordability pressures despite mortgage rates edging down. Today's actual housing data defied the NAHB sentiment with December housing starts surging to 1.404M versus 1.29M expected and building permits jumping 4.3% against estimates of a -3.7% decline, suggesting builders are pushing forward despite weak buyer sentiment, though traders will be watching this afternoon's FOMC minutes for any signals on the rate path given the recent string of economic beats that have pushed the Economic Surprise Index back into positive territory at +2.3. Tomorrow brings critical reads on trade flows with the goods trade balance expected to narrow to -$82.0B from -$86.0B, initial jobless claims forecast at 229K versus 227K prior, and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index anticipated to cool to 7.0 from 12.6—a deceleration that could test whether the manufacturing recovery has legs beyond the Empire State's strength.

Institutional flow data shows bifurcated positioning in mega-cap technology, with 1,228 ETFs adding Tesla exposure while 905 funds reduced Broadcom holdings, suggesting a potential rotation from semiconductor infrastructure plays toward consumer-facing tech and AI applications. The heavy activity in Palantir (890 ETFs adding) alongside mixed flows in both TSLA and AVGO indicates institutions are repositioning within the AI and enterprise software space rather than making directional sector bets.

TSLA Tesla, Inc. ⭐

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -1.6% 3M +2.1% 1Y +15.4%

1228 ETFs • 0 shares

AVGO Broadcom Inc. ⭐

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -3.3% 3M -2.2% 1Y +41.5%

1051 ETFs • 0 shares

PLTR Palantir Technologies Inc. ⭐

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -6.9% 3M -22.7% 1Y +12.8%

890 ETFs • 0 shares

AVGO Broadcom Inc. ⭐

- Selling Falling Stock 5D -3.3% 3M -2.2% 1Y +41.5%

905 ETFs • 0 shares

TSLA Tesla, Inc. ⭐

- Selling Falling Stock 5D -1.6% 3M +2.1% 1Y +15.4%

702 ETFs • 0 shares

LLY Eli Lilly and Company ⭐

- Selling Falling Stock 5D -0.6% 3M +1.5% 1Y +19.8%

650 ETFs • 0 shares

Rep. Gilbert Cisneros purchased shares in three European financial institutions—MHVIY (Muenchener Rueckversicherungs), SAN (Banco Santander), and HESAY (Hermes International)—while Rep. Michael McCaul sold semiconductor equipment maker ASML and Sen. John Boozman reduced positions in fintech company FISV and growth ETF IVW. The transactions show mixed activity, with one member adding international exposure while others trimmed technology and growth-oriented holdings.

MHVIY MHVIY ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

Rep. Gilbert Cisneros (Gilbert Cisneros) • $1,001 - $15,000

SAN Banco Santander, S.A. ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D -3.8% 3M +12.7% 1Y +114.6%

Rep. Gilbert Cisneros (Gilbert Cisneros) • $1,001 - $15,000

HESAY Hermès International Société en commandite par actions ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +0.2% 3M -1.4% 1Y -16.3%

Rep. Gilbert Cisneros (Gilbert Cisneros) • $1,001 - $15,000

ASML ASML Holding N.V. ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -0.6% 3M +39.2% 1Y +84.0%

Rep. Michael McCaul (Michael McCaul) • $1,001 - $15,000

FISV Fiserv, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +5.5% 3M -1.7% 1Y -72.4%

Sen. John Boozman (John Boozman) • $1,001 - $15,000

IVW iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF ⭐ CONGRESS

- Selling Falling Stock 5D -2.6% 3M -1.1% 1Y +12.7%

Sen. John Boozman (John Boozman) • $1,001 - $15,000

Notable cluster activity this week shows 26 insiders at Lamb Weston (LW), 18 at Raytheon Technologies (RTX), and 11 at McDonald's (MCD) recording purchases or awards, while concentrated selling emerged at Amkor Technology (AMKR) with 2 insiders offloading $969.8M, Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR) with 38 insiders selling $287.6M, and Wynn Resorts (WYNN) with 15 insiders disposing $249.8M. The week balanced at 15 accumulation signals versus 15 distribution signals across tracked companies.

LW Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D -4.9% 3M -16.7% 1Y -14.2%

26 insiders • $224.2M

MCD McDonald's Corporation ⭐ INSIDER

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +0.6% 3M +7.2% 1Y +8.1%

11 insiders • $133.5M

RTX RTX Corporation ⭐ INSIDER

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +3.8% 3M +17.5% 1Y +64.8%

18 insiders • $110.3M

AMKR Amkor Technology, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -10.8% 3M +46.9% 1Y +114.2%

2 insiders • $969.8M

MPWR Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -2.7% 3M +26.9% 1Y +68.7%

38 insiders • $287.6M

WYNN Wynn Resorts, Limited ⭐ INSIDER

- Selling Falling Stock 5D -2.2% 3M -6.8% 1Y +43.6%

15 insiders • $249.8M

Yesterday's session saw sharp declines in LDOS, which dropped 16.7%, while GPC fell 13.9% and RBA.TO declined 12.9%. Today's earnings calendar features 495 companies reporting results, with institutional activity showing accumulation patterns in BNGA.JK and 032830.KS, while distribution signals have emerged in TGSU2.BA and 4704.T. Tomorrow's schedule includes 394 companies set to release quarterly results.