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While Rep. Gilbert Cisneros (D-CA) quietly scooped up Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHVIY) shares worth up to $15,000, five insiders at Amkor Technology (AMKR) stampeded for the exits with $970.7 million in sales—the kind of lopsided action that makes you wonder who knows something we don't. Meanwhile, VIX spiked 14.1% to 20.3 as the Fed pumped $16.5 billion into the system, and after hours, Bloom Energy (BE) rocketed 8.2% to $157 after Druckenmiller and Dalio's 13F filings revealed fresh positions while Ondas Holdings (ONDS) surged 10.2% on a flood of call option activity. Here's what smart money actually did with their capital today.
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0We're 36 trading days into the second year of Trump's second term, and both SPY and QQQ are running ahead of the typical 2nd Term Year 2 pattern despite slightly negative year-to-date returns—SPY is tracking nearly 2% above the historical average for this cycle position, while QQQ shows similar outperformance at +1.1% versus its baseline. The historical playbook suggests these Year 2 periods typically deliver modest full-year gains around 3.5% for SPY, with another 1.5% typically added through mid-March in Q1, though current positioning is slightly lagging the 20-year seasonal trend by about 1%. If the pattern holds, the spring months have historically provided the bulk of Year 2's gains, but the early outperformance versus the specific second-term cycle average suggests institutional players may be pricing in a different trajectory than past midterm cycles delivered.
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TSLA
Tesla, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
+ Buying Falling Stock
5D -3.3%
3M +1.7%
1Y +15.6%
CRWV
CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
▲ + Buying Rising Stock
5D +0.4%
3M +23.4%
PG
The Procter & Gamble Company
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
▲ + Buying Rising Stock
5D -1.5%
3M +6.1%
1Y -1.9%
Equity market volatility climbed into elevated territory this week, with the VIX rising 14.1% to 20.29, crossing above the threshold that typically indicates heightened investor uncertainty. This spike in stock market fear gauges stands in notable contrast to bond market volatility, where the MOVE index declined 16.4% to 11.31, suggesting fixed income traders remain relatively calm. The divergence between equity and bond volatility measures indicates uncertainty is concentrated in stock markets rather than reflecting broader systemic concerns across asset classes.
|| Market Sutra ||
"The strongest rallies come from the weakest hands selling."
— Forced liquidations in 2020 fueled a historic V-shaped recovery.
The market is showing a defensive posture with Materials, Consumer Staples, and Utilities leading while growth-oriented sectors like Technology, Communication, and Financials lag significantly behind. This traditional risk-off sector rotation is occurring alongside mixed breadth conditions, where transports are showing relative strength at 79% while the tech-heavy Nasdaq sits at just 50%, creating a notable divergence between old economy and new economy performance. The 31 percentage point gap between top-performing Materials and bottom-performing Communication Services reflects a clear bifurcation in sector participation.
As of February 11, Fed net liquidity stood at $6.62 trillion, up $16.5 billion week-over-week, with the next H.4.1 release scheduled for Thursday, February 19. This uptick in liquidity typically correlates with more accommodative conditions for risk assets, as increased liquidity provides more capital available to flow into markets.
Yesterday's housing data delivered substantial upside surprises, with housing starts jumping 6.2% month-over-month to 1.404 million units versus the 1.29 million consensus—a roughly 9% beat that signals resilient construction activity despite mortgage rates still hovering above 6%. Core durable goods orders (ex-transportation) rose 0.9% versus the 0.3% estimate, tripling expectations and suggesting business investment momentum carried into year-end, while industrial production's 0.7% gain also topped the 0.5% forecast. Today's focus shifts to the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, expected to cool from 12.6 to 7.0, and initial jobless claims forecast at 229K, before tomorrow's critical Q4 GDP print (consensus 2.8% versus prior 4.4%) and December PCE inflation data—the Fed's preferred gauge—where core PCE is estimated at 0.2% month-over-month, matching November's reading as markets parse whether disinflation remains on track.
Institutional positioning data shows nearly 1,200 ETFs added to Tesla while over 900 reduced Broadcom exposure, suggesting a potential rotation from semiconductor plays into electric vehicle manufacturers. The split activity in both TSLA and AVGO—with substantial flows in both directions—indicates institutional managers are rebalancing positions rather than making uniform directional bets across the technology sector.
TSLA
Tesla, Inc.
⭐
+ Buying Falling Stock
5D -3.3%
3M +1.7%
1Y +15.6%
AVGO
Broadcom Inc.
⭐
+ Buying Falling Stock
5D -2.0%
3M -2.6%
1Y +43.5%
PLTR
Palantir Technologies Inc.
⭐
+ Buying Falling Stock
5D -3.0%
3M -22.2%
1Y +13.6%
AVGO
Broadcom Inc.
⭐
- Selling Falling Stock
5D -2.0%
3M -2.6%
1Y +43.5%
TSLA
Tesla, Inc.
⭐
- Selling Falling Stock
5D -3.3%
3M +1.7%
1Y +15.6%
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
⭐
- Selling Falling Stock
5D -0.2%
3M -0.5%
1Y +21.6%
Rep. Gilbert Cisneros purchased positions in three financial sector stocks—MHVIY, FINMY, and SAN—all of which are European banking institutions. Sen. John Boozman reduced his holdings by selling Union Pacific (UNP) and executing two separate sales of the iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF (IVW).
MHVIY
MHVIY
⭐
CONGRESS
▲ + Buying Rising Stock
FINMY
Leonardo S.p.A.
⭐
CONGRESS
▲ + Buying Rising Stock
5D +7.3%
3M +16.9%
1Y +106.4%
SAN
Banco Santander, S.A.
⭐
CONGRESS
▲ + Buying Rising Stock
5D -1.6%
3M +16.5%
1Y +114.4%
UNP
Union Pacific Corporation
⭐
CONGRESS
▲ - Selling Rising Stock
5D +1.4%
3M +19.5%
1Y +8.9%
IVW
iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF
⭐
CONGRESS
- Selling Falling Stock
5D -1.4%
3M -0.6%
1Y +13.2%
IVW
iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF
⭐
CONGRESS
- Selling Falling Stock
5D -1.4%
3M -0.6%
1Y +13.2%
Significant cluster activity this period shows 26 insiders at Lamb Weston Holdings (LW) adding positions, while coordinated selling emerged at Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR) where 38 insiders reduced holdings totaling $287.6M and at Wynn Resorts (WYNN) where 19 insiders sold shares worth $329.2M. Amkor Technology (AMKR) recorded the largest individual transaction value with 5 insiders distributing $970.7M in shares.
DOV
Dover Corporation
⭐
INSIDER
▲ + Buying Rising Stock
5D +1.1%
3M +27.1%
1Y +16.0%
LW
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.
⭐
INSIDER
▲ + Buying Rising Stock
5D -3.4%
3M -14.3%
1Y -14.8%
MCD
McDonald's Corporation
⭐
INSIDER
▲ + Buying Rising Stock
5D +0.6%
3M +7.4%
1Y +8.7%
AMKR
Amkor Technology, Inc.
⭐
INSIDER
▲ - Selling Rising Stock
5D -12.6%
3M +47.9%
1Y +110.6%
WYNN
Wynn Resorts, Limited
⭐
INSIDER
- Selling Falling Stock
5D -0.5%
3M -3.5%
1Y +32.2%
MPWR
Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.
⭐
INSIDER
▲ - Selling Rising Stock
5D +4.0%
3M +29.1%
1Y +74.6%
Yesterday's session saw GRMN surge 13.7% and MCW climb 13.5%, while CRL declined 12.9%. A heavy reporting day ahead with 393 stocks announcing results, including 005830.KS and 036460.KS which have shown recent accumulation activity from institutional investors, and ESSA.JK and 1773.T where smart money has reduced positions. Tomorrow's calendar lightens to 77 companies reporting earnings.