The Edge

🐷 PIG ROAST

💬 Word on the Street

While Rep. Gilbert Cisneros (D-CA) quietly scooped up shares of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHVIY) for up to $15,000, five insiders at Amkor Technology (AMKR) were sprinting for the exit with nearly $1 billion in stock sales—the kind of gap that makes you wonder who knows something the market doesn't. Elsewhere, silver miners and AI-powered communication platforms are having their moment in the after-hours sun, and smart money just moved $1.4 billion more out the door than in. Here's what the insiders, institutions, and politicians are actually doing with their money today.

📚 Jargon Buster

Wick Fill

That long shadow on the candle that everyone swore was “rejection”? Yeah, it usually comes back and gets filled like the market’s got OCD.

Equity market volatility remains elevated with the VIX at 20.23, though it declined 2.8% over the past week, suggesting a modest reduction in near-term fear among stock investors. In contrast, bond market volatility has retreated sharply, with the MOVE index dropping 12.7% week-over-week to 10.89, indicating significantly calmer conditions in fixed income markets. This divergence shows equity traders pricing in continued uncertainty while bond investors have grown considerably more comfortable with interest rate expectations.

|| Market Sutra ||

"Systems fail when emotions enter."

— Amateurs overrode stops during the 2011 Eurozone crisis and paid the price.

Market leadership has rotated sharply toward defensive positioning, with Materials, Consumer Staples, and Utilities all showing participation rates above 97% while growth-oriented sectors like Technology and Communication Services lag significantly at 47% and 35% respectively. This defensive tilt appears across major indices, though a notable divergence exists between the Nasdaq's weaker 52% breadth and the Transportation index's stronger 79% participation, suggesting uneven conviction in the current risk-off rotation. The widening performance gap between cyclical defensives and growth sectors indicates investors are repositioning portfolios away from rate-sensitive technology names.

As of February 18, Fed net liquidity stood at $6.61 trillion, down $9.0 billion from the prior week, indicating a modest tightening in financial conditions as the central bank continues to manage its balance sheet. The next H.4.1 release drops Thursday, February 26, which will show whether this liquidity drain accelerated or reversed—a data point closely watched by institutional investors given liquidity's historical correlation with risk asset performance.

Yesterday's data painted a stagflationary picture as Q4 GDP growth collapsed to 1.4% from 4.4% prior—missing the 2.8% estimate by 140 basis points—while the Fed's preferred Core PCE inflation gauge accelerated to 0.4% month-over-month, double the 0.2% consensus and matching its hottest pace since early 2023. The simultaneous deceleration in economic activity and reacceleration in price pressures complicates the Fed's path forward, particularly as CFTC data showed speculators increased their net short positions in S&P 500 futures to -177.8K from -105.1K, reflecting growing bearish sentiment on equities. Markets now turn to Fed Governor Waller's speech today and a parade of Fed officials tomorrow including Goolsbee, Bostic, Collins, Cook, and Barkin, with traders parsing any commentary on whether December's inflation surprise represents a trend reversal or transitory spike, while Tuesday's Consumer Confidence reading (expected at 87.6 versus 84.5 prior) will test whether households are internalizing the growth slowdown alongside persistent inflation pressures.

Institutional flow this week shows mixed positioning in mega-cap technology, with 1,353 ETFs adding TSLA and 1,184 adding AVGO, while nearly as many reduced exposure (775 and 996 respectively), suggesting active rebalancing rather than directional conviction. The notable exception is PLTR drawing 992 net additions in the software/AI infrastructure space, while healthcare saw broad reduction with 677 ETFs trimming LLY positions.

TSLA Tesla, Inc. ⭐

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -1.3% 3M +2.6% 1Y +14.2%

1353 ETFs • 0 shares

AVGO Broadcom Inc. ⭐

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +0.5% 3M -2.3% 1Y +45.9%

1184 ETFs • 0 shares

PLTR Palantir Technologies Inc. ⭐

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +4.7% 3M -19.2% 1Y +20.7%

992 ETFs • 0 shares

AVGO Broadcom Inc. ⭐

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +0.5% 3M -2.3% 1Y +45.9%

996 ETFs • 0 shares

TSLA Tesla, Inc. ⭐

- Selling Falling Stock 5D -1.3% 3M +2.6% 1Y +14.2%

775 ETFs • 0 shares

LLY Eli Lilly and Company ⭐

- Selling Falling Stock 5D -2.6% 3M -2.0% 1Y +17.1%

677 ETFs • 0 shares

Rep. Gilbert Cisneros purchased positions in three international companies—MHVIY, BABA, and HESAY—demonstrating concentrated activity in foreign equities. Meanwhile, four separate representatives reduced holdings in established technology and financial positions, with Rep. Jake Auchincloss selling STT, Rep. John McGuire selling MSFT, and Rep. Michael McCaul selling ASML.

MHVIY MHVIY ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

Rep. Gilbert Cisneros (Gilbert Cisneros) • $1,001 - $15,000

BABA Alibaba Group Holding Limited ⭐ CONGRESS

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -2.7% 3M -3.3% 1Y +24.9%

Rep. Gilbert Cisneros (Gilbert Cisneros) • $1,001 - $15,000

HESAY Hermès International Société en commandite par actions ⭐ CONGRESS

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -3.2% 3M +3.6% 1Y -12.4%

Rep. Gilbert Cisneros (Gilbert Cisneros) • $1,001 - $15,000

STT State Street Corporation ⭐ CONGRESS

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +1.3% 3M +13.0% 1Y +31.1%

Rep. Jake Auchincloss (Jake Auchincloss) • $15,001 - $50,000

MSFT Microsoft Corporation ⭐ CONGRESS

- Selling Falling Stock 5D -0.9% 3M -19.4% 1Y -3.5%

Rep. John McGuire (John McGuire) • $1,001 - $15,000

ASML ASML Holding N.V. ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +4.5% 3M +46.4% 1Y +98.7%

Rep. Michael McCaul (Michael McCaul) • $1,001 - $15,000

Multiple insiders accumulated positions at DOV, MCD, and JNJ this period, with 8, 11, and 11 insiders respectively taking action at each company. On the distribution side, concentrated selling occurred at AMKR where 5 insiders offloaded $970.7M in shares, while WYNN saw the broadest activity with 17 insiders reducing positions totaling $334.2M.

DOV Dover Corporation ⭐ INSIDER

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +1.2% 3M +30.1% 1Y +15.2%

8 insiders • $696.1M

MCD McDonald's Corporation ⭐ INSIDER

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D -0.8% 3M +8.8% 1Y +11.6%

11 insiders • $133.5M

JNJ Johnson & Johnson ⭐ INSIDER

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D -0.8% 3M +22.0% 1Y +57.0%

11 insiders • $104.3M

AMKR Amkor Technology, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -7.1% 3M +56.5% 1Y +114.1%

5 insiders • $970.7M

CRBG Corebridge Financial, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

- Selling Falling Stock 5D -2.5% 3M +8.2% 1Y -8.9%

2 insiders • $750.1M

WYNN Wynn Resorts, Limited ⭐ INSIDER

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +6.5% 3M -4.5% 1Y +25.7%

17 insiders • $334.2M

Yesterday saw significant moves with PETFF surging 35.7%, while 0KGY.L and BTS-B.ST posted gains above 24%. Today's 651 reporting companies include INCO.JK and 068270.KS showing recent accumulation patterns, while ROSN.ME and 89988.HK have experienced distribution activity ahead of their results. Tomorrow's calendar features 525 companies set to report earnings.