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🐷 PIG ROAST
💬 Word on the Street
Rep. Tim Moore (R-NC) quietly picked up shares of Krispy Kreme (DNUT) while insiders at Amkor Technology (AMKR) dumped $970.7 million in a single day—the kind of lopsided action that makes you wonder who knows something we don't. Meanwhile, Arcellx (ACLX) rocketed 77% after lawyers started circling its sale price like vultures, and ImmunityBio (IBRX) surged another 13% on 700% revenue growth despite bleeding cash. Here's what smart money did today as $1.4 billion quietly flowed out the back door.
30
0We're 39 days into Year 2 of Trump's second term, and the major indices are running slightly ahead of the typical second-term pattern—SPY sits just 0.8% above the historical Year 2 average despite being slightly negative on the year, while QQQ is lagging by about half a point. The seasonal playbook suggests we're due for another 1.5% climb through mid-March if history holds, though it's worth noting that second-term Year 2s have historically been the weakest of the four-year cycle, averaging just 3.5% full-year returns for SPY. Right now we're tracking close to script, neither significantly ahead nor behind where markets have typically traded at this point in the presidential timeline.
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TSLA
Tesla, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
+ Buying Falling Stock
5D -4.2%
3M -1.0%
1Y +12.8%
ORCL
Oracle Corporation
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
+ Buying Falling Stock
5D -11.8%
3M -37.4%
1Y -19.1%
CRWV
CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
▲ + Buying Rising Stock
5D -5.4%
3M +21.2%
The VIX declined 7.3% over the week to settle at 19.09, positioning within the normal range and suggesting neither complacency nor elevated concern among equity options traders. The MOVE index, measuring bond market volatility expectations, fell more sharply by 12.8% to 10.26, indicating historically low anticipated turbulence in fixed income markets. This divergence shows equity volatility holding near mid-range levels while bond market participants are pricing in minimal interest rate uncertainty in the near term.
|| Market Sutra ||
"The market is a mirror; your trades reflect your habits."
— Repeated stop-outs in choppy markets often reflect impatience, not strategy flaws.
Market breadth shows a defensive posture with Consumer Staples, Materials, and Utilities leading at 97-100% participation while growth-oriented Technology and Communication sectors lag significantly at 44% and 39% respectively. The divergence between traditional value indices like DIA at 67% and IYT at 74% versus the growth-heavy QQQ at just 52% reinforces this risk-off rotation. This configuration typically reflects investor preference for stability and income over growth, with participants positioning in sectors that historically perform better during periods of economic uncertainty.
As of February 18, Fed net liquidity stood at $6.61 trillion, down $9.0 billion from the prior week, indicating a modest tightening in financial system liquidity that historically correlates with reduced support for risk asset prices. The next H.4.1 release drops Thursday, February 26, which will show whether this liquidity drain accelerated or reversed.
Yesterday's data painted a mixed picture as the Chicago Fed Activity Index came in at 0.18 versus expectations of 0.3, while December factory orders badly missed at -0.7% against a 0.9% estimate—a significant deceleration from the prior month's 2.7% reading that marks continued weakness in manufacturing demand. The lone bright spot came from Dallas Fed manufacturing, which swung to 0.2 from -1.2 and crushed the -3.5 estimate by 3.7 points, suggesting some stabilization in Texas factory activity. Today's focus shifts to a parade of seven Fed speaker appearances alongside consumer confidence data expected to rise to 87.4 from 84.5, with markets particularly attuned to any inflation or rate path commentary from voting members Waller and Collins, while tomorrow's crude oil inventory data will be closely watched after last week's substantial 9.014 million barrel drawdown.
Exchange-traded funds showed mixed positioning in mega-cap technology stocks this period, with 1,214 ETFs adding Tesla positions while 652 reduced them, and similar divergent flows in Broadcom (1,060 adding vs 831 removing) and Microsoft (1,041 adding vs 783 removing). The split activity—10 ETFs net adding and 10 net removing across these semiconductor and software positions—suggests institutional rotation within the technology sector rather than a directional bet, as managers rebalanced exposure among large-cap tech names.
TSLA
Tesla, Inc.
⭐
+ Buying Falling Stock
5D -4.2%
3M -1.0%
1Y +12.8%
AVGO
Broadcom Inc.
⭐
+ Buying Falling Stock
5D +1.6%
3M -6.8%
1Y +46.1%
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
⭐
+ Buying Falling Stock
5D -4.0%
3M -20.9%
1Y -7.1%
AVGO
Broadcom Inc.
⭐
- Selling Falling Stock
5D +1.6%
3M -6.8%
1Y +46.1%
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
⭐
- Selling Falling Stock
5D -4.0%
3M -20.9%
1Y -7.1%
TSLA
Tesla, Inc.
⭐
- Selling Falling Stock
5D -4.2%
3M -1.0%
1Y +12.8%
Recent congressional trading activity shows Rep. Tim Moore rotating out of cryptocurrency exchange COIN into donut retailer DNUT, while Rep. David Taylor made mixed moves by adding insurance company PGR and tech giant MSFT while exiting pharmaceutical company LLY. Rep. Jake Auchincloss reduced his position in financial services firm STT, with the overall pattern suggesting members moved toward consumer discretionary and technology sectors while trimming exposure to both crypto-adjacent and healthcare holdings.
DNUT
Krispy Kreme, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
+ Buying Falling Stock
5D +0.7%
3M -19.1%
1Y -67.7%
PGR
The Progressive Corporation
⭐
CONGRESS
+ Buying Falling Stock
5D -0.4%
3M -8.6%
1Y -23.8%
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
⭐
CONGRESS
+ Buying Falling Stock
5D -4.0%
3M -20.9%
1Y -7.1%
COIN
Coinbase Global, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
- Selling Falling Stock
5D -2.5%
3M -37.7%
1Y -37.5%
STT
State Street Corporation
⭐
CONGRESS
- Selling Falling Stock
5D -2.2%
3M +9.8%
1Y +28.5%
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
⭐
CONGRESS
- Selling Falling Stock
5D +1.8%
3M +0.8%
1Y +21.9%
Notable insider cluster activity this week shows 11 insiders at both McDonald's and Johnson & Johnson acquiring shares, while 12 insiders at Wynn Resorts collectively sold positions totaling $264.2M. The largest single-stock insider sales occurred at Amkor Technology, where 5 insiders disposed of $970.7M in shares, and at Corebridge Financial, where 2 insiders sold $750.1M.
DOV
Dover Corporation
⭐
INSIDER
▲ + Buying Rising Stock
5D -0.4%
3M +28.8%
1Y +13.0%
MCD
McDonald's Corporation
⭐
INSIDER
▲ + Buying Rising Stock
5D +2.2%
3M +11.2%
1Y +13.0%
JNJ
Johnson & Johnson
⭐
INSIDER
▲ + Buying Rising Stock
5D +1.0%
3M +22.2%
1Y +57.4%
AMKR
Amkor Technology, Inc.
⭐
INSIDER
▲ - Selling Rising Stock
5D -0.9%
3M +50.0%
1Y +107.5%
CRBG
Corebridge Financial, Inc.
⭐
INSIDER
- Selling Falling Stock
5D -12.2%
3M -1.5%
1Y -16.1%
WYNN
Wynn Resorts, Limited
⭐
INSIDER
- Selling Falling Stock
5D -5.4%
3M -9.4%
1Y +15.9%
879 companies report earnings today, with accumulation signals appearing in BBRI.JK and INCO.JK ahead of their results, while CRM.BA and AVIA.JK show distribution patterns as they prepare to report. Yesterday's session saw EOPSF surge 27.7% and EOS.AX climb 23.0%, while SCL declined 20.1%. Tomorrow's slate includes 755 companies scheduled to report quarterly results.