Know What They Know
🐷 PIG ROAST
💬 Word on the Street
While Rep. Tim Moore purchased Krispy Kreme (DNUT) stock worth up to $15,000, insiders at Amkor Technology (AMKR) were heading for the exits with $970.7 million in sales—and that's just the tip of today's $1.4 billion net outflow from those who supposedly know best. Meanwhile, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) rocketed 8.8% aftermarket to $213.84 on AI infrastructure buzz, and Keysight Technologies (KEYS) exploded 23.1% to a $301.48 record after crushing earnings. Here's what smart money is doing today.
We're 40 days into the second year of Trump's second term, and the major indexes are running slightly ahead of typical Year 2 patterns—SPY sits 1.0% above the historical average for second-term Year 2s, though QQQ is lagging by half a percent. History shows these second years tend to deliver modest gains around 3.5% for the full year, with another 1.5% typically materializing by mid-March, which would put us on track for the pattern if momentum continues. Worth noting that we're still slightly behind the broader 20-year seasonal average by 0.4%, suggesting this isn't an especially strong start compared to all years, just reasonably solid for a Year 2 in the presidential cycle.
The Big Idea: When insiders, institutions, AND politicians all bet on the same stock? That's convergence — and historically, these aligned signals tend to pack more punch than solo moves. We track the smart money so you don't have to.
ETF Institutional funds adding/removing positions
INSIDER Corporate executives buying/selling their own stock
CONGRESS Politicians making trades (yes, we see you)
▲ + Buying Rising Stock: Smart money accumulating as price rises — ideal alignment
+ Buying Falling Stock: Smart money accumulating while price drops — falling knife risk
▲ - Selling Rising Stock: Smart money exiting while price still rising — warning signal
- Selling Falling Stock: Smart money exiting as price drops — confirms downtrend
The Bottom Line: Convergence + aligned momentum = strongest setups. Convergence + divergent momentum = proceed with caution. This isn't financial advice — it's intelligence. What you do with it is on you.
📚 Jargon Buster
FOMO
Fear Of Missing Out. The dumbest four-letter word on Wall Street. Makes grown men buy at the top and cry at the bottom.
TSLA
Tesla, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
ORCL
Oracle Corporation
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
CRWV
CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
EMR
Emerson Electric Co.
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
FDS
FactSet Research Systems Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
JNJ
Johnson & Johnson
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
DASH
DoorDash, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
UNP
Union Pacific Corporation
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
ITW
Illinois Tool Works Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
ABBV
AbbVie Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
Equity volatility remains elevated with the VIX holding at 21.01, declining slightly by 0.9% week-over-week but still firmly in the elevated fear range above the 20 threshold that typically signals investor caution. This stands in notable contrast to bond market volatility, where the MOVE index dropped 7.2% to 10.63, indicating exceptionally low volatility expectations in fixed income markets. The divergence between elevated stock market uncertainty and subdued bond market volatility suggests investors are pricing in different risk scenarios across asset classes, with equities commanding higher hedging premiums while rates markets remain relatively calm.
|| Market Sutra ||
"An asset's true value appears only when liquidity vanishes."
— During 2008, even AAA assets crashed when buyers evaporated.
Market breadth shows defensive positioning with Consumer Staples, Materials, and Utilities leading at 97-100% while growth-oriented Technology and Communication sectors lag significantly at 44% and 39% respectively. This defensive rotation contrasts with moderately healthy index-level breadth, as the SPY and DIA show 64-67% participation while the growth-heavy QQQ trails at 52%, confirming the bifurcation between value-defensive names and growth sectors. The transport index leads all major benchmarks at 74% breadth, suggesting some economic activity optimism despite the broader flight to quality in sector performance.
As of February 18, Fed net liquidity stands at $6.61 trillion, down $9.0 billion week-over-week, indicating a modest tightening in financial system liquidity conditions. The next H.4.1 data release is scheduled for Thursday, February 26, which will show whether this liquidity contraction continues or reverses.
Consumer confidence jumped to 91.2 in February, beating estimates of 87.4 by 3.8 points and marking the highest reading since June 2024, suggesting households are growing more optimistic despite persistent inflation concerns. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model held steady at 3.1% for Q1, indicating economic momentum remains intact even as housing data showed price growth continuing to decelerate at just 1.4% year-over-year, matching the prior month's reading which represents the slowest pace since 2012. Markets are now focused on tomorrow's core PCE data—the Fed's preferred inflation gauge—where any deviation from the expected 0.3% monthly gain could significantly shift rate cut expectations, while today's new home sales and crude inventory figures will test whether the housing market stabilization and energy supply dynamics are holding up amid higher mortgage rates that have climbed back above 6%.
Exchange-traded funds showed mixed positioning in mega-cap technology during the period, with 1,214 ETFs adding Tesla shares while 652 removed positions, and Broadcom seeing both 1,060 additions and 831 reductions. The split activity across semiconductor and electric vehicle names suggests institutional portfolio rebalancing rather than a clear directional rotation, with equal numbers of ETFs increasing and decreasing overall technology exposure.
TSLA
Tesla, Inc.
⭐
AVGO
Broadcom Inc.
⭐
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
⭐
PLTR
Palantir Technologies Inc.
⭐
ORCL
Oracle Corporation
⭐
AVGO
Broadcom Inc.
⭐
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
⭐
TSLA
Tesla, Inc.
⭐
ABBV
AbbVie Inc.
⭐
JNJ
Johnson & Johnson
⭐
Congressional trading activity shows members taking positions in technology and financial services stocks, with Rep. David Taylor purchasing shares of both Progressive Corp (PGR) and Microsoft (MSFT), while Rep. Tim Moore added Krispy Kreme (DNUT) and exited cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase (COIN). The transactions reflect a mix of traditional blue-chip technology, insurance, and consumer discretionary positions being added, while members reduced holdings in cryptocurrency exposure, banking services, and consumer staples.
DNUT
Krispy Kreme, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
PGR
The Progressive Corporation
⭐
CONGRESS
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
⭐
CONGRESS
PG
The Procter & Gamble Company
⭐
CONGRESS
V
Visa Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
COIN
Coinbase Global, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
STT
State Street Corporation
⭐
CONGRESS
HSY
The Hershey Company
⭐
CONGRESS
HSY
The Hershey Company
⭐
CONGRESS
WAT
Waters Corporation
⭐
CONGRESS
During the latest reporting period, notable cluster buying activity occurred at DOV where 8 insiders accumulated shares and at MCD where 11 insiders added positions, while on the selling side, 102 insiders at RCL collectively distributed $383.1M in stock value. The most significant individual sales by dollar volume came from AMKR with 5 insiders offloading $970.7M and CRBG where 2 insiders reduced positions totaling $750.1M.
DOV
Dover Corporation
⭐
INSIDER
PSA
Public Storage
⭐
INSIDER
MCD
McDonald's Corporation
⭐
INSIDER
JNJ
Johnson & Johnson
⭐
INSIDER
HON
Honeywell International Inc.
⭐
INSIDER
AMKR
Amkor Technology, Inc.
⭐
INSIDER
CRBG
Corebridge Financial, Inc.
⭐
INSIDER
RCL
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.
⭐
INSIDER
WYNN
Wynn Resorts, Limited
⭐
INSIDER
ROIV
Roivant Sciences Ltd.
⭐
INSIDER
756 companies report earnings today, with accumulation signals appearing in SBER.ME and SMDR.JK ahead of their results, indicating recent insider or institutional buying activity. Distribution signals emerged in ENELAM.SN and BMA.BA, where smart money has reduced positions prior to their reports. Yesterday's session saw 0Z62.L surge 9.4% and TEFOF advance 7.8%, while CIFR declined 7.2%.
0Z62.L
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.
⭐
BEAT
+9.4%
TEFOF
Telefónica, S.A.
⭐
MISS
+7.8%
CIFR
Cipher Mining Inc.
⭐
MISS
-7.2%
SHLS
Shoals Technologies Group, Inc.
⭐
MISS
-6.7%
XMTR
Xometry, Inc.
⭐
MISS
-6.0%
HMC.AX
HMC Capital Limited
⭐
MISS
+4.8%
SPOG.OL
Sparebanken Øst
⭐
BEAT
+4.7%
CNVVF
ConvaTec Group Plc
⭐
BEAT
-4.2%
0HEU.L
American Tower Corporation
⭐
BEAT
+3.5%
UTGPF
Unite Group Plc
⭐
MET
+3.2%
SBER.ME
Sberbank of Russia
⭐
SMDR.JK
PT Samudera Indonesia Tbk
⭐
FEMSAUBD.MX
Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A.B. de C.V.
⭐
3750.HK
Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited
⭐
039200.KQ
Oscotec Inc.
⭐
122870.KQ
YG Entertainment Inc.
⭐
BAYNN.MX
Bayer AG
⭐
074600.KQ
Wonik QnC Corporation
⭐
032500.KQ
Kmw Inc.
⭐
FEMSAUB.MX
Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A.B. de C.V.
⭐
064260.KQ
Danal Co., Ltd.
⭐
2360.TW
Chroma ATE Inc.
⭐
6505.TW
Formosa Petrochemical Corporation
⭐
215200.KQ
MegaStudyEdu Co. Ltd
⭐
2892.TW
First Financial Holding Co., Ltd.
⭐
015760.KS
Korea Electric Power Corporation
⭐
SMAR.JK
PT Sinar Mas Agro Resources and Technology Tbk
⭐
111770.KS
Youngone Corporation
⭐
009970.KS
Youngone Holdings Co., Ltd.
⭐
8963.T
Invincible Investment Corporation
⭐
145720.KS
Dentium Co. Ltd.
⭐
THYAO.IS
Türk Hava Yollari Anonim Ortakligi
⭐
0016.HK
Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited
⭐
RY.TO
Royal Bank of Canada
⭐
6770.TW
Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp.
⭐
Smart money flows reveal a complex positioning landscape with institutional players rebalancing rather than making directional bets, while corporate insiders show concentrated accumulation in select names alongside heavy distribution in others. Exchange-traded funds displayed split activity in mega-cap technology, with 1,214 ETFs adding Tesla shares while 652 removed positions, and Broadcom seeing both 1,060 additions and 831 reductions, suggesting portfolio rebalancing rather than conviction moves. Insider activity showed notable cluster buying at DOV where 8 insiders accumulated shares and at MCD where 11 insiders added positions, contrasting sharply with massive distribution at RCL where 102 insiders collectively sold $383.1 million in stock value, while the most significant individual sales came from AMKR with 5 insiders offloading $970.7 million and CRBG where 2 insiders reduced positions totaling $750.1 million. Congressional activity reflected a shift toward traditional blue chips and away from cryptocurrency exposure, with Rep. David Taylor purchasing shares of both Progressive Corp (PGR) and Microsoft (MSFT), while Rep. Tim Moore added Krispy Kreme (DNUT) and exited cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase (COIN). The accumulation signals currently stand at 30 with top names including TSLA, ORCL, and CRWV, while distribution signals remain at zero. Market structure reflects defensive positioning within a moderately constructive presidential cycle backdrop, though volatility signals suggest investors remain cautious about near-term uncertainty. SPY sits 1.0 percent above the historical average for second-term Year 2 patterns, though QQQ lags by half a percent, tracking roughly in line with typical Year 2 behavior that tends to deliver modest gains around 3.5 percent for the full year with another 1.5 percent typically materializing by mid-March. The VIX remains elevated at 21.01, declining slightly by 0.9 percent week-over-week but still firmly above the 20 threshold that typically signals investor caution, while bond market volatility told a different story as the MOVE index dropped 7.2 percent to 10.63, indicating exceptionally low volatility expectations in fixed income markets. This divergence between elevated stock market uncertainty and subdued bond market volatility suggests investors are pricing in different risk scenarios across asset classes. Sector rotation confirms the defensive posture with Consumer Staples, Materials, and Utilities leading at 97-100 percent while growth-oriented Technology and Communication sectors lag significantly at 44 percent and 39 percent respectively, though the transport index leads all major benchmarks at 74 percent breadth, suggesting some economic activity optimism despite the broader flight to quality. The convergence point to watch centers on whether improving consumer sentiment can support a rotation back into growth sectors or if the defensive positioning proves prescient ahead of tomorrow's core PCE inflation data. Consumer confidence jumped to 91.2 in February, beating estimates of 87.4 by 3.8 points and marking the highest reading since June 2024, while the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model held steady at 3
Key themes: Watch convergence signals closely. Stocks where insiders, institutions, and politicians agree tend to show stronger directional moves.