The Edge
Know What They Know
🐷 PIG ROAST
💬 Word on the Street
While Rep. Tim Moore purchased Krispy Kreme (DNUT) stock worth up to $15,000, insiders at Amkor Technology (AMKR) were heading for the exits with $970.7 million in sales—and that's just the tip of today's $1.4 billion net outflow from those who supposedly know best. Meanwhile, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) rocketed 8.8% aftermarket to $213.84 on AI infrastructure buzz, and Keysight Technologies (KEYS) exploded 23.1% to a $301.48 record after crushing earnings. Here's what smart money is doing today.
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0We're 40 days into the second year of Trump's second term, and the major indexes are running slightly ahead of typical Year 2 patterns—SPY sits 1.0% above the historical average for second-term Year 2s, though QQQ is lagging by half a percent. History shows these second years tend to deliver modest gains around 3.5% for the full year, with another 1.5% typically materializing by mid-March, which would put us on track for the pattern if momentum continues. Worth noting that we're still slightly behind the broader 20-year seasonal average by 0.4%, suggesting this isn't an especially strong start compared to all years, just reasonably solid for a Year 2 in the presidential cycle.
📚 Jargon Buster
FOMO
Fear Of Missing Out. The dumbest four-letter word on Wall Street. Makes grown men buy at the top and cry at the bottom.
TSLA
Tesla, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
+ Buying Falling Stock
5D -7.4%
3M -2.1%
1Y +4.2%
ORCL
Oracle Corporation
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
+ Buying Falling Stock
5D -0.5%
3M -32.6%
1Y +16.2%
CRWV
CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
▲ + Buying Rising Stock
5D -10.8%
3M -47.8%
Equity volatility remains elevated with the VIX holding at 21.01, declining slightly by 0.9% week-over-week but still firmly in the elevated fear range above the 20 threshold that typically signals investor caution. This stands in notable contrast to bond market volatility, where the MOVE index dropped 7.2% to 10.63, indicating exceptionally low volatility expectations in fixed income markets. The divergence between elevated stock market uncertainty and subdued bond market volatility suggests investors are pricing in different risk scenarios across asset classes, with equities commanding higher hedging premiums while rates markets remain relatively calm.
|| Market Sutra ||
"An asset's true value appears only when liquidity vanishes."
— During 2008, even AAA assets crashed when buyers evaporated.
Market breadth shows defensive positioning with Consumer Staples, Materials, and Utilities leading at 97-100% while growth-oriented Technology and Communication sectors lag significantly at 44% and 39% respectively. This defensive rotation contrasts with moderately healthy index-level breadth, as the SPY and DIA show 64-67% participation while the growth-heavy QQQ trails at 52%, confirming the bifurcation between value-defensive names and growth sectors. The transport index leads all major benchmarks at 74% breadth, suggesting some economic activity optimism despite the broader flight to quality in sector performance.
As of February 18, Fed net liquidity stands at $6.61 trillion, down $9.0 billion week-over-week, indicating a modest tightening in financial system liquidity conditions. The next H.4.1 data release is scheduled for Thursday, February 26, which will show whether this liquidity contraction continues or reverses.
Consumer confidence jumped to 91.2 in February, beating estimates of 87.4 by 3.8 points and marking the highest reading since June 2024, suggesting households are growing more optimistic despite persistent inflation concerns. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model held steady at 3.1% for Q1, indicating economic momentum remains intact even as housing data showed price growth continuing to decelerate at just 1.4% year-over-year, matching the prior month's reading which represents the slowest pace since 2012. Markets are now focused on tomorrow's core PCE data—the Fed's preferred inflation gauge—where any deviation from the expected 0.3% monthly gain could significantly shift rate cut expectations, while today's new home sales and crude inventory figures will test whether the housing market stabilization and energy supply dynamics are holding up amid higher mortgage rates that have climbed back above 6%.
Exchange-traded funds showed mixed positioning in mega-cap technology during the period, with 1,214 ETFs adding Tesla shares while 652 removed positions, and Broadcom seeing both 1,060 additions and 831 reductions. The split activity across semiconductor and electric vehicle names suggests institutional portfolio rebalancing rather than a clear directional rotation, with equal numbers of ETFs increasing and decreasing overall technology exposure.
TSLA
Tesla, Inc.
⭐
+ Buying Falling Stock
5D -7.4%
3M -2.1%
1Y +4.2%
AVGO
Broadcom Inc.
⭐
+ Buying Falling Stock
5D -0.9%
3M +3.8%
1Y +43.6%
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
⭐
+ Buying Falling Stock
5D -0.7%
3M -6.8%
1Y +13.2%
AVGO
Broadcom Inc.
⭐
- Selling Falling Stock
5D -0.9%
3M +3.8%
1Y +43.6%
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
⭐
- Selling Falling Stock
5D -0.7%
3M -6.8%
1Y +13.2%
TSLA
Tesla, Inc.
⭐
- Selling Falling Stock
5D -7.4%
3M -2.1%
1Y +4.2%
Congressional trading activity shows members taking positions in technology and financial services stocks, with Rep. David Taylor purchasing shares of both Progressive Corp (PGR) and Microsoft (MSFT), while Rep. Tim Moore added Krispy Kreme (DNUT) and exited cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase (COIN). The transactions reflect a mix of traditional blue-chip technology, insurance, and consumer discretionary positions being added, while members reduced holdings in cryptocurrency exposure, banking services, and consumer staples.
DNUT
Krispy Kreme, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
+ Buying Falling Stock
5D -4.1%
3M +5.0%
1Y -58.4%
PGR
The Progressive Corporation
⭐
CONGRESS
+ Buying Falling Stock
5D -0.1%
3M -13.1%
1Y -9.3%
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
⭐
CONGRESS
+ Buying Falling Stock
5D -0.7%
3M -6.8%
1Y +13.2%
COIN
Coinbase Global, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
- Selling Falling Stock
5D -6.7%
3M -34.7%
1Y -14.9%
STT
State Street Corporation
⭐
CONGRESS
- Selling Falling Stock
5D -1.3%
3M +13.0%
1Y +34.1%
HSY
The Hershey Company
⭐
CONGRESS
▲ - Selling Rising Stock
5D -0.3%
3M -2.9%
1Y +9.4%
During the latest reporting period, notable cluster buying activity occurred at DOV where 8 insiders accumulated shares and at MCD where 11 insiders added positions, while on the selling side, 102 insiders at RCL collectively distributed $383.1M in stock value. The most significant individual sales by dollar volume came from AMKR with 5 insiders offloading $970.7M and CRBG where 2 insiders reduced positions totaling $750.1M.
DOV
Dover Corporation
⭐
INSIDER
▲ + Buying Rising Stock
5D -2.4%
3M +17.7%
1Y +4.8%
PSA
Public Storage
⭐
INSIDER
▲ + Buying Rising Stock
5D +0.0%
3M -9.7%
1Y -9.3%
MCD
McDonald's Corporation
⭐
INSIDER
▲ + Buying Rising Stock
5D -1.7%
3M +2.3%
1Y +6.5%
AMKR
Amkor Technology, Inc.
⭐
INSIDER
▲ - Selling Rising Stock
5D -3.4%
3M +34.2%
1Y +53.7%
CRBG
Corebridge Financial, Inc.
⭐
INSIDER
- Selling Falling Stock
5D -1.4%
3M -5.8%
1Y +3.6%
RCL
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.
⭐
INSIDER
▲ - Selling Rising Stock
5D -4.2%
3M -11.7%
1Y +21.0%
756 companies report earnings today, with accumulation signals appearing in SBER.ME and SMDR.JK ahead of their results, indicating recent insider or institutional buying activity. Distribution signals emerged in ENELAM.SN and BMA.BA, where smart money has reduced positions prior to their reports. Yesterday's session saw 0Z62.L surge 9.4% and TEFOF advance 7.8%, while CIFR declined 7.2%.