Know What They Know
🐷 PIG ROAST
💬 Word on the Street
While Rep. Cleo Fields quietly added Apple (AAPL) shares worth up to $15,000, five insiders at Amkor Technology (AMKR) unloaded a staggering $970.7 million—the kind of exit that makes you wonder what they know that we don't. Meanwhile, after hours turned into a fintech fever dream as Circle Internet (CRCL) rocketed 35.5% to $83.14 on exploding stablecoin adoption, Coinbase Global (COIN) jumped 13.5% on its pivot to stock trading, and Axon Enterprise (AXON) tasered skeptics with a 17.6% surge to $520.18 after crushing earnings. Here's what smart money actually did with their capital today.
We're 41 days into the second year of Trump's second term, and markets are running slightly ahead of the typical Year 2 script—SPY is tracking 1.1% above the historical average for second-term Year 2s, though it's sitting essentially flat on the year at -0.2%. The blueprint from previous second-term Year 2s suggests modest full-year gains around 3.5%, with historical patterns pointing to another 1.5% bump through mid-March as Q1 plays out. Tech is lagging a bit with QQQ down 1.8% YTD and running 0.3% behind its Year 2 comps, which tends to be the choppier part of the four-year cycle before momentum typically builds into Year 3.
The Big Idea: When insiders, institutions, AND politicians all bet on the same stock? That's convergence — and historically, these aligned signals tend to pack more punch than solo moves. We track the smart money so you don't have to.
ETF Institutional funds adding/removing positions
INSIDER Corporate executives buying/selling their own stock
CONGRESS Politicians making trades (yes, we see you)
▲ + Buying Rising Stock: Smart money accumulating as price rises — ideal alignment
+ Buying Falling Stock: Smart money accumulating while price drops — falling knife risk
▲ - Selling Rising Stock: Smart money exiting while price still rising — warning signal
- Selling Falling Stock: Smart money exiting as price drops — confirms downtrend
The Bottom Line: Convergence + aligned momentum = strongest setups. Convergence + divergent momentum = proceed with caution. This isn't financial advice — it's intelligence. What you do with it is on you.
📚 Jargon Buster
FUD
Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt. The weapon of choice for anyone who missed the move and wants you to sell them your bags.
TSLA
Tesla, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
ORCL
Oracle Corporation
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
CRWV
CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
EMR
Emerson Electric Co.
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
FDS
FactSet Research Systems Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
JNJ
Johnson & Johnson
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
DASH
DoorDash, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
UNP
Union Pacific Corporation
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
ITW
Illinois Tool Works Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
ABBV
AbbVie Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
The VIX declined 3.6% week-over-week to 19.55, settling in the normal range and suggesting moderate investor anxiety in equity markets. Meanwhile, the MOVE index measuring Treasury volatility rose 7.4% to 12.15, though it remains at historically low levels, indicating relatively calm conditions in bond markets. This divergence shows equities experiencing typical volatility levels while fixed income markets continue to trade with minimal stress, reflecting a mixed but generally stable cross-asset volatility environment.
|| Market Sutra ||
"The deeper the panic, the cleaner the bottom."
— March 9th, 2009 bottom was pure capitulation sentiment.
Market breadth shows a traditional defensive rotation, with Materials, Utilities, and Energy sectors displaying the strongest participation above 90%, while growth-oriented sectors including Communication Services, Financials, and Technology lag significantly below 50%. The transportation index demonstrates the broadest participation at 84%, notably outpacing the tech-heavy Nasdaq at 50%, which creates a divergence from typical risk-on conditions where technology would normally lead alongside cyclical sectors.
As of February 18, Fed net liquidity stands at $6.61 trillion, down $9.0 billion from the prior week, indicating a modest tightening in financial system liquidity that historically correlates with reduced support for risk asset valuations. The next H.4.1 data release drops Thursday, February 26, which will show whether this liquidity drainage continues or reverses.
Mortgage rates declined 8 basis points to 6.09% in the week ending February 20th, marking the lowest level since early January and potentially signaling renewed housing activity after rates had climbed above 7% in mid-January. Crude oil inventories surged by 15.989 million barrels—the largest weekly build since March 2023—reversing the prior week's 9.014 million barrel draw and suggesting weakening demand or increased domestic production ahead of the typical seasonal refinery maintenance period. Today's focus centers on the Fed's preferred inflation gauge with Core PCE expected to hold at 0.3% month-over-month, while the second GDP reading for Q4 (previously 1.4%) and Friday's PPI data (consensus 0.3% versus prior 0.5%) will test whether the recent disinflation trend remains intact or if January marked a potential reacceleration.
Exchange-traded funds showed mixed positioning in mega-cap technology during the latest reporting period, with 1,214 ETFs adding Tesla positions while 831 reduced Broadcom holdings, and similar split activity in Microsoft (1,041 adding vs 783 removing). The balanced 10-to-10 overall institutional flow suggests funds are rotating within the technology sector rather than making a directional bet, with electric vehicle and software positions seeing net inflows while semiconductor exposure faced modest trimming.
TSLA
Tesla, Inc.
⭐
AVGO
Broadcom Inc.
⭐
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
⭐
MU
Micron Technology, Inc.
⭐
PLTR
Palantir Technologies Inc.
⭐
AVGO
Broadcom Inc.
⭐
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
⭐
TSLA
Tesla, Inc.
⭐
MU
Micron Technology, Inc.
⭐
ABBV
AbbVie Inc.
⭐
Congressional trading activity shows members moving into established tech and consumer names, with Rep. Tim Moore purchasing DNUT while exiting crypto-exposed COIN, Rep. Cleo Fields adding AAPL, and Rep. David Taylor taking a position in PGR. On the sell side, representatives reduced holdings in financial services STT (Rep. Jake Auchincloss) and consumer staples HSY (Rep. Scott Franklin), suggesting a shift away from traditional banking and packaged food sectors.
AAPL
Apple Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
DNUT
Krispy Kreme, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
PGR
The Progressive Corporation
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CONGRESS
V
Visa Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
CRM
Salesforce, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
COIN
Coinbase Global, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
STT
State Street Corporation
⭐
CONGRESS
HSY
The Hershey Company
⭐
CONGRESS
HSY
The Hershey Company
⭐
CONGRESS
WAT
Waters Corporation
⭐
CONGRESS
Recent SEC filings show concentrated insider activity at DOV where 8 insiders accumulated shares and MCD where 11 insiders received awards or made purchases. On the distribution side, RCL reported an unusually high number of 102 insiders selling positions totaling $383.1M, while AMKR saw 5 insiders offload $970.7M and CRBG recorded 2 insiders reducing positions by $750.1M.
DOV
Dover Corporation
⭐
INSIDER
PSA
Public Storage
⭐
INSIDER
MCD
McDonald's Corporation
⭐
INSIDER
WRB
W. R. Berkley Corporation
⭐
INSIDER
JNJ
Johnson & Johnson
⭐
INSIDER
AMKR
Amkor Technology, Inc.
⭐
INSIDER
CRBG
Corebridge Financial, Inc.
⭐
INSIDER
RCL
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.
⭐
INSIDER
WYNN
Wynn Resorts, Limited
⭐
INSIDER
WMT
Walmart Inc.
⭐
INSIDER
Today's earnings calendar features 660 companies reporting results, with institutional activity showing accumulation in ASII.JK and 015760.KS ahead of their reports, while smart money has been reducing positions in ENELAM.SN and SMMT.JK. Yesterday's session saw notable volatility with 3037.TW surging 108.4%, BDGSF advancing 40.2%, and YOU climbing 39.5%. Tomorrow's slate narrows to 135 companies scheduled to report quarterly results.
3037.TW
Unimicron Technology Corp.
⭐
BEAT
+108.4%
BDGSF
Bank of Georgia Group PLC
⭐
BEAT
+40.2%
YOU
Clear Secure, Inc.
⭐
BEAT
+39.5%
8150.TW
ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES Inc.
⭐
MISS
+37.9%
ZZ-B.ST
Zinzino AB (publ)
⭐
BEAT
+27.6%
ACHC
Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc.
⭐
MISS
+23.1%
CPIA.F
ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES Inc.
⭐
MET
+17.1%
PLAB
Photronics, Inc.
⭐
BEAT
+16.0%
0IV3.L
Geron Corporation
⭐
MISS
-15.5%
BGEO.L
Lion Finance Group PLC
⭐
BEAT
+12.8%
ASII.JK
PT Astra International Tbk
⭐
015760.KS
Korea Electric Power Corporation
⭐
SMAR.JK
PT Sinar Mas Agro Resources and Technology Tbk
⭐
COPEC.SN
Empresas Copec S.A.
⭐
111770.KS
Youngone Corporation
⭐
009970.KS
Youngone Holdings Co., Ltd.
⭐
FORUS.SN
Forus S.A.
⭐
ALV.WA
Allianz SE
⭐
8963.T
Invincible Investment Corporation
⭐
THYAO.IS
Türk Hava Yollari Anonim Ortakligi
⭐
0016.HK
Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited
⭐
9888.HK
Baidu, Inc.
⭐
RY.TO
Royal Bank of Canada
⭐
6770.TW
Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp.
⭐
CPN-R.BK
Central Pattana Public Company Limited
⭐
PFDAVVNDA.CL
Banco Davivienda S.A.
⭐
RICHT.BD
Chemical Works
⭐
085660.KQ
Chabiotech Co.,Ltd.
⭐
183300.KQ
KoMiCo Ltd.
⭐
SCHAEFFLER.BO
Schaeffler India Limited
⭐
SCHAEFFLER.NS
Schaeffler India Limited
⭐
4666.T
PARK24 Co., Ltd.
⭐
061970.KQ
LB Semicon Inc.
⭐
NPH.JO
Northam Platinum Holdings Limited
⭐
CRC.BK
Central Retail Corporation Public Company Limited
⭐
Smart money positioning reveals a coordinated rotation into established technology and industrial names while select insiders lock in gains from recent rallies. Institutional flows show mixed mega-cap technology positioning with 1,214 ETFs adding Tesla (TSLA) while 831 reduced Broadcom holdings, and similar split activity in Microsoft with 1,041 adding versus 783 removing, suggesting funds are rotating within the sector rather than making directional bets. Congressional activity mirrors this tech preference with Rep. Cleo Fields purchasing Apple (AAPL) and Rep. Tim Moore adding Krispy Kreme (DNUT) while exiting Coinbase (COIN), indicating a shift toward established consumer and technology franchises over crypto-exposed names. Insider filings present a stark contrast with 8 insiders accumulating Dover Corporation (DOV) and 11 insiders active at McDonald's (MCD), while distribution dominated at Royal Caribbean (RCL) where 102 insiders sold $383.1 million, Amkor Technology (AMKR) with 5 insiders offloading $970.7 million, and Corebridge Financial (CRBG) recording 2 insiders reducing positions by $750.1 million. Accumulation signals hit 30 with no distribution signals, topped by Tesla, Oracle (ORCL), and Crown Electrokinetics (CRWV). Markets are tracking 41 days into the second year of Trump's second term with SPY running 1.1% above historical averages for second-term Year 2s despite sitting essentially flat at negative 0.2% year-to-date, while the typical blueprint suggests modest full-year gains around 3.5% with another 1.5% potential bump through mid-March as first quarter patterns play out. Technology is lagging with the Nasdaq down 1.8% year-to-date and running 0.3% behind its Year 2 comparisons, consistent with the choppier part of the four-year cycle before momentum typically builds into Year 3. The VIX declined 3.6% week-over-week to 19.55 in the normal range while the MOVE index measuring Treasury volatility rose 7.4% to 12.15 though still at historically low levels, creating a divergence where equities show typical volatility while fixed income trades with minimal stress. Sector rotation displays a traditional defensive posture with Materials, Utilities, and Energy showing participation above 90% while growth-oriented Communication Services, Financials, and Technology lag significantly below 50%, and the transportation index demonstrates the broadest participation at 84% notably outpacing the tech-heavy Nasdaq at 50%. Today's economic calendar centers on the Fed's preferred inflation gauge with Core PCE expected to hold at 0.3% month-over-month alongside the second GDP reading for Q4 previously reported at 1.4%, while Friday's PPI data with consensus at 0.3% versus the prior 0.5% will test whether the recent disinflation trend remains intact or if January marked a potential reacceleration. Mortgage rates declined 8 basis
Key themes: Watch convergence signals closely. Stocks where insiders, institutions, and politicians agree tend to show stronger directional moves.