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💬 Word on the Street
While Rep. Cleo Fields quietly added Apple (AAPL) shares worth up to $15,000, five insiders at Amkor Technology (AMKR) unloaded a staggering $970.7 million—the kind of exit that makes you wonder what they know that we don't. Meanwhile, after hours turned into a fintech fever dream as Circle Internet (CRCL) rocketed 35.5% to $83.14 on exploding stablecoin adoption, Coinbase Global (COIN) jumped 13.5% on its pivot to stock trading, and Axon Enterprise (AXON) tasered skeptics with a 17.6% surge to $520.18 after crushing earnings. Here's what smart money actually did with their capital today.
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0We're 41 days into the second year of Trump's second term, and markets are running slightly ahead of the typical Year 2 script—SPY is tracking 1.1% above the historical average for second-term Year 2s, though it's sitting essentially flat on the year at -0.2%. The blueprint from previous second-term Year 2s suggests modest full-year gains around 3.5%, with historical patterns pointing to another 1.5% bump through mid-March as Q1 plays out. Tech is lagging a bit with QQQ down 1.8% YTD and running 0.3% behind its Year 2 comps, which tends to be the choppier part of the four-year cycle before momentum typically builds into Year 3.
📚 Jargon Buster
FUD
Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt. The weapon of choice for anyone who missed the move and wants you to sell them your bags.
TSLA
Tesla, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
+ Buying Falling Stock
5D +1.5%
3M -5.0%
1Y +0.8%
ORCL
Oracle Corporation
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
+ Buying Falling Stock
5D -5.3%
3M -49.2%
1Y -6.6%
CRWV
CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
▲ + Buying Rising Stock
5D +2.7%
3M -28.4%
The VIX declined 3.6% week-over-week to 19.55, settling in the normal range and suggesting moderate investor anxiety in equity markets. Meanwhile, the MOVE index measuring Treasury volatility rose 7.4% to 12.15, though it remains at historically low levels, indicating relatively calm conditions in bond markets. This divergence shows equities experiencing typical volatility levels while fixed income markets continue to trade with minimal stress, reflecting a mixed but generally stable cross-asset volatility environment.
|| Market Sutra ||
"The deeper the panic, the cleaner the bottom."
— March 9th, 2009 bottom was pure capitulation sentiment.
Market breadth shows a traditional defensive rotation, with Materials, Utilities, and Energy sectors displaying the strongest participation above 90%, while growth-oriented sectors including Communication Services, Financials, and Technology lag significantly below 50%. The transportation index demonstrates the broadest participation at 84%, notably outpacing the tech-heavy Nasdaq at 50%, which creates a divergence from typical risk-on conditions where technology would normally lead alongside cyclical sectors.
As of February 18, Fed net liquidity stands at $6.61 trillion, down $9.0 billion from the prior week, indicating a modest tightening in financial system liquidity that historically correlates with reduced support for risk asset valuations. The next H.4.1 data release drops Thursday, February 26, which will show whether this liquidity drainage continues or reverses.
Mortgage rates declined 8 basis points to 6.09% in the week ending February 20th, marking the lowest level since early January and potentially signaling renewed housing activity after rates had climbed above 7% in mid-January. Crude oil inventories surged by 15.989 million barrels—the largest weekly build since March 2023—reversing the prior week's 9.014 million barrel draw and suggesting weakening demand or increased domestic production ahead of the typical seasonal refinery maintenance period. Today's focus centers on the Fed's preferred inflation gauge with Core PCE expected to hold at 0.3% month-over-month, while the second GDP reading for Q4 (previously 1.4%) and Friday's PPI data (consensus 0.3% versus prior 0.5%) will test whether the recent disinflation trend remains intact or if January marked a potential reacceleration.
Exchange-traded funds showed mixed positioning in mega-cap technology during the latest reporting period, with 1,214 ETFs adding Tesla positions while 831 reduced Broadcom holdings, and similar split activity in Microsoft (1,041 adding vs 783 removing). The balanced 10-to-10 overall institutional flow suggests funds are rotating within the technology sector rather than making a directional bet, with electric vehicle and software positions seeing net inflows while semiconductor exposure faced modest trimming.
TSLA
Tesla, Inc.
⭐
+ Buying Falling Stock
5D +1.5%
3M -5.0%
1Y +0.8%
AVGO
Broadcom Inc.
⭐
+ Buying Falling Stock
5D -0.4%
3M -4.9%
1Y +45.3%
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
⭐
+ Buying Falling Stock
5D +0.5%
3M -21.8%
1Y -4.9%
AVGO
Broadcom Inc.
⭐
- Selling Falling Stock
5D -0.4%
3M -4.9%
1Y +45.3%
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
⭐
- Selling Falling Stock
5D +0.5%
3M -21.8%
1Y -4.9%
TSLA
Tesla, Inc.
⭐
- Selling Falling Stock
5D +1.5%
3M -5.0%
1Y +0.8%
Congressional trading activity shows members moving into established tech and consumer names, with Rep. Tim Moore purchasing DNUT while exiting crypto-exposed COIN, Rep. Cleo Fields adding AAPL, and Rep. David Taylor taking a position in PGR. On the sell side, representatives reduced holdings in financial services STT (Rep. Jake Auchincloss) and consumer staples HSY (Rep. Scott Franklin), suggesting a shift away from traditional banking and packaged food sectors.
AAPL
Apple Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
+ Buying Falling Stock
5D +3.7%
3M +8.8%
1Y +20.7%
DNUT
Krispy Kreme, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
+ Buying Falling Stock
5D -0.3%
3M -7.1%
1Y -64.7%
PGR
The Progressive Corporation
⭐
CONGRESS
+ Buying Falling Stock
5D +0.6%
3M -9.3%
1Y -16.6%
COIN
Coinbase Global, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
- Selling Falling Stock
5D +12.1%
3M -45.3%
1Y -34.7%
STT
State Street Corporation
⭐
CONGRESS
▲ - Selling Rising Stock
5D +1.5%
3M +18.2%
1Y +34.0%
HSY
The Hershey Company
⭐
CONGRESS
▲ - Selling Rising Stock
5D +3.5%
3M +23.3%
1Y +54.1%
Recent SEC filings show concentrated insider activity at DOV where 8 insiders accumulated shares and MCD where 11 insiders received awards or made purchases. On the distribution side, RCL reported an unusually high number of 102 insiders selling positions totaling $383.1M, while AMKR saw 5 insiders offload $970.7M and CRBG recorded 2 insiders reducing positions by $750.1M.
DOV
Dover Corporation
⭐
INSIDER
▲ + Buying Rising Stock
5D -2.3%
3M +36.5%
1Y +17.9%
PSA
Public Storage
⭐
INSIDER
▲ + Buying Rising Stock
5D +0.1%
3M -1.6%
1Y +4.8%
MCD
McDonald's Corporation
⭐
INSIDER
▲ + Buying Rising Stock
5D +1.6%
3M +8.7%
1Y +21.8%
AMKR
Amkor Technology, Inc.
⭐
INSIDER
▲ - Selling Rising Stock
5D +9.0%
3M +63.1%
1Y +103.0%
CRBG
Corebridge Financial, Inc.
⭐
INSIDER
- Selling Falling Stock
5D -11.4%
3M -10.6%
1Y -10.6%
RCL
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.
⭐
INSIDER
▲ - Selling Rising Stock
5D -1.9%
3M +4.2%
1Y +35.4%
Today's earnings calendar features 660 companies reporting results, with institutional activity showing accumulation in ASII.JK and 015760.KS ahead of their reports, while smart money has been reducing positions in ENELAM.SN and SMMT.JK. Yesterday's session saw notable volatility with 3037.TW surging 108.4%, BDGSF advancing 40.2%, and YOU climbing 39.5%. Tomorrow's slate narrows to 135 companies scheduled to report quarterly results.