Know What They Know
🐷 PIG ROAST
💬 Word on the Street
While Rep. Virginia Foxx (R-NC) quietly scooped up Alliance Resource Partners LP (ARLP) units worth up to $15,000, four insiders at NRG Energy Inc. (NRG) collectively dumped a staggering $5.3 billion in stock—and that's just the beginning of today's $9.0 billion net smart money outflow as the VIX spiked 20.6% to 23.6. After hours, President Trump's crypto cheerleading launched Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN) up 14.6% to $208.93 and MicroStrategy Incorporated (MSTR) up 10.4% to $146.44, while AppLovin Corporation (APP) surged 10.0% to $482.81 on Morgan Stanley conference optimism. Here's what smart money is doing today.
We're 46 days into Year 2 of Trump's second term, and the market is delivering a mixed performance against historical patterns—SPY is running half a point ahead of typical second-term Year 2 behavior at -0.2% YTD, while QQQ is lagging at -1.8% and trailing its historical comparison by 0.7%. The interesting setup here is that second-term Year 2s have historically averaged 3.5% full-year returns for SPY, with another 1.5% typically added through mid-March, suggesting the heavy lifting in these cycles tends to come after this sluggish start. What institutions are seeing is a market that's essentially on-script for the presidential cycle's historically weakest year, though large-cap tech is showing more pressure than the broader market compared to past patterns.
The Big Idea: When insiders, institutions, AND politicians all bet on the same stock? That's convergence — and historically, these aligned signals tend to pack more punch than solo moves. We track the smart money so you don't have to.
ETF Institutional funds adding/removing positions
INSIDER Corporate executives buying/selling their own stock
CONGRESS Politicians making trades (yes, we see you)
▲ + Buying Rising Stock: Smart money accumulating as price rises — ideal alignment
+ Buying Falling Stock: Smart money accumulating while price drops — falling knife risk
▲ - Selling Rising Stock: Smart money exiting while price still rising — warning signal
- Selling Falling Stock: Smart money exiting as price drops — confirms downtrend
The Bottom Line: Convergence + aligned momentum = strongest setups. Convergence + divergent momentum = proceed with caution. This isn't financial advice — it's intelligence. What you do with it is on you.
📚 Jargon Buster
Dividend
Company mailing you a thank-you check just for owning the stock. Free money? Sort of. They just take it out of the stock price first.
TSLA
Tesla, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
ORCL
Oracle Corporation
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
CRWV
CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
TTD
The Trade Desk, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
KO
The Coca-Cola Company
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
EMR
Emerson Electric Co.
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
ABT
Abbott Laboratories
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
FDS
FactSet Research Systems Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
JNJ
Johnson & Johnson
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
DASH
DoorDash, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
Equity volatility spiked into elevated territory this week, with the VIX climbing 20.6% to 23.57, reflecting increased uncertainty in stock markets as fear gauges moved above the typical range of market calm. In contrast, bond market volatility remains subdued, with the MOVE index at just 13.80 despite a 13.6% weekly increase, indicating that fixed income investors are pricing in considerably less turbulence than their equity counterparts. This divergence between stock and bond volatility measures suggests investors are bracing for equity-specific risks while maintaining relative confidence in the stability of interest rate movements.
|| Market Sutra ||
"The hardest trade emotionally is often the right one mathematically."
— Buying during Brexit panic yielded outsized gains.
Market breadth shows a defensive rotation with Materials, Utilities, and Energy exhibiting the strongest participation above 90%, while growth-oriented sectors like Technology and Communication Services lag significantly below 50%. The divergence between the transport-heavy IYT at 74% breadth and the tech-concentrated QQQ at just 48% suggests institutional flows are favoring traditional economy sectors over high-growth names, with the SPY's 63% reading reflecting this mixed positioning across the broader market.
As of February 25, Fed net liquidity stood at $6.61 trillion, up $0.4 billion week-over-week, indicating relatively stable monetary conditions with minimal change in the financial system's cash availability. The next H.4.1 release drops Thursday, March 5, which will show whether the Fed's balance sheet operations continue this sideways trend or shift toward expansion or contraction that historically correlates with equity market liquidity conditions.
Yesterday's data painted a picture of resilient services activity, with the ISM Services PMI jumping to 56.1 versus the 53.0 estimate—the strongest reading since August 2022—while ADP employment surged to 63K against expectations of just 19K, suggesting private sector hiring accelerated sharply in February. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices component fell to 63.0 from 66.6, missing the 68.3 estimate and marking the first decline in three months, though inflation pressures remain elevated in the services sector which comprises roughly 80% of the U.S. economy. Markets now turn to Friday's February jobs report where nonfarm payrolls are expected to decelerate significantly to 70K from 130K, alongside today's initial jobless claims (estimated at 215K versus 212K prior) and unit labor costs for Q4, with traders particularly focused on whether the services strength translates into labor market tightness that could complicate the Fed's policy calculus.
# Institutional Flow Summary ETF positioning data reveals a notable rotation into semiconductor exposure, with AVGO attracting additions from 596 funds and MU from 569 funds, even as 430 funds trimmed AVGO positions—suggesting rebalancing rather than sector abandonment. The split activity in mega-cap tech (TSLA and MSFT appearing on both lists, with balanced 10-fund net adds and removes overall) indicates institutions are redistributing capital within technology rather than exiting the sector entirely.
AVGO
Broadcom Inc.
⭐
TSLA
Tesla, Inc.
⭐
MU
Micron Technology, Inc.
⭐
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
⭐
INTC
Intel Corporation
⭐
AVGO
Broadcom Inc.
⭐
TSLA
Tesla, Inc.
⭐
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
⭐
PLTR
Palantir Technologies Inc.
⭐
ABBV
AbbVie Inc.
⭐
Congressional members recently disclosed several equity transactions, with Rep. Tim Moore both purchasing DNUT and selling COIN, while Rep. Virginia Foxx purchased ARLP and Rep. Cleo Fields added AAPL to their holdings. On the sell side, Rep. Jake Auchincloss reduced their position in STT and Rep. Scott Mr Franklin exited HSY, showing mixed sector activity across energy partnerships, technology, consumer discretionary, crypto-related equities, financials, and consumer staples.
ARLP
Alliance Resource Partners, L.P.
⭐
CONGRESS
AAPL
Apple Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
DNUT
Krispy Kreme, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
SMPL
The Simply Good Foods Company
⭐
CONGRESS
PGR
The Progressive Corporation
⭐
CONGRESS
COIN
Coinbase Global, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
STT
State Street Corporation
⭐
CONGRESS
HSY
The Hershey Company
⭐
CONGRESS
HSY
The Hershey Company
⭐
CONGRESS
WAT
Waters Corporation
⭐
CONGRESS
Public Storage, The Trade Desk, and Vistra Energy each saw multiple insiders adding to their positions this week, with Vistra recording the highest concentration at 6 insiders making purchases. On the selling side, NRG Energy saw 4 insiders distribute shares totaling $5.3 billion, followed by BrightSpring Health Services with 2 insiders selling $1.6 billion in stock.
PSA
Public Storage
⭐
INSIDER
TTD
The Trade Desk, Inc.
⭐
INSIDER
VST
Vistra Corp.
⭐
INSIDER
KO
The Coca-Cola Company
⭐
INSIDER
WRB
W. R. Berkley Corporation
⭐
INSIDER
NRG
NRG Energy, Inc.
⭐
INSIDER
BTSG
BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock
⭐
INSIDER
SARO
StandardAero, Inc.
⭐
INSIDER
WMT
Walmart Inc.
⭐
INSIDER
PLTR
Palantir Technologies Inc.
⭐
INSIDER
Yesterday's session saw sharp moves with VTY.L dropping 34.2% and BVHMF falling 33.0%, while WIX surged 27.7%. Today's heavy slate of 511 earnings reports includes ADRO.JK and BFIN.JK showing recent accumulation patterns, while RAJA.JK and SIDO.JK have exhibited distribution signals ahead of their results. Tomorrow's calendar lightens considerably with just 47 companies scheduled to report.
VTY.L
Vistry Group PLC
⭐
MET
-34.2%
BVHMF
Vistry Group PLC
⭐
MET
-33.0%
WIX
Wix.com Ltd.
⭐
BEAT
+27.7%
SHA0.DE
Schaeffler AG
⭐
MISS
-24.3%
DAKT
Daktronics, Inc.
⭐
MISS
-18.3%
BAY.WA
Bayer AG
⭐
BEAT
-15.9%
BBAR.BA
Banco BBVA Argentina S.A.
⭐
MISS
-15.9%
BLLN
BillionToOne, Inc.
⭐
BEAT
+15.4%
8039.TW
Taiflex Scientific Co., Ltd.
⭐
MISS
+15.3%
6781.TW
Advanced Energy Solution Holding Co., Ltd.
⭐
MISS
-14.6%
ADRO.JK
PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk
⭐
BFIN.JK
PT BFI Finance Indonesia Tbk
⭐
OTP.BD
OTP Bank Nyrt.
⭐
214370.KQ
Caregen Co., Ltd.
⭐
LPPF.JK
PT Matahari Department Store Tbk
⭐
1928.T
Sekisui House, Ltd.
⭐
PPRO.JK
PT Pembangunan Perumahan Properti Tbk
⭐
6505.TW
Formosa Petrochemical Corporation
⭐
PETR3.SA
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras
⭐
PETR4.SA
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras
⭐
FSR.JO
FirstRand Limited
⭐
2890.TW
SinoPac Financial Holdings Company Limited
⭐
0I47.L
Costco Wholesale Corporation
⭐
COST
Costco Wholesale Corporation
⭐
MOEX.ME
Public Joint-Stock Company Moscow Exchange MICEX-RTS
⭐
OTP.BD
OTP Bank Nyrt.
⭐
2884.TW
E.SUN Financial Holding Company, Ltd.
⭐
2890.TW
SinoPac Financial Holdings Company Limited
⭐
200880.KS
Seoyon E-Hwa Co., Ltd.
⭐
1326.TW
Formosa Chemicals & Fibre Corporation
⭐
EKGYO.IS
Emlak Konut Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S.
⭐
EMBJ3.SA
Embraer S.A.
⭐
RATCH.BK
Ratch Group Public Company Limited
⭐
ARI.JO
African Rainbow Minerals Limited
⭐
1434.TW
Formosa Taffeta Co., Ltd.
⭐
Smart money is showing a distinct tilt toward semiconductors and energy infrastructure while taking profits in select mega-caps. Institutional flows reveal 596 funds added exposure to Broadcom (AVGO) and 569 funds increased positions in Micron Technology (MU), though 430 funds trimmed AVGO simultaneously, suggesting strategic rebalancing within the chip sector rather than abandonment. Congressional activity remains mixed, with Rep. Tim Moore purchasing Krispy Kreme (DNUT) while selling Coinbase Global (COIN), Rep. Virginia Foxx adding to Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP), and Rep. Cleo Fields buying Apple (AAPL). The insider picture shows concentrated buying at Public Storage, The Trade Desk, and particularly Vistra Energy where 6 insiders made purchases, contrasting sharply with NRG Energy where 4 insiders distributed $5.3 billion in shares and BrightSpring Health Services where 2 insiders sold $1.6 billion. Accumulation signals are flashing on 30 names led by Tesla (TSLA), Oracle (ORCL), and Crowe Valves (CRWV), while distribution signals remain at zero. The market is tracking closely with historical second-term Year 2 patterns, which have typically been the weakest in the presidential cycle but tend to show acceleration after sluggish starts. SPY sits at negative 0.2% year-to-date, running half a point ahead of historical norms, while QQQ lags at negative 1.8%, trailing its historical comparison by 0.7%. Historical data suggests second-term Year 2s have averaged 3.5% full-year returns for SPY, with another 1.5% typically added through mid-March, meaning the market remains on-script despite the lackluster tape. Volatility tells a tale of two markets: the VIX spiked 20.6% to 23.57, reflecting elevated equity uncertainty, while the MOVE index remains subdued at 13.80 despite a 13.6% weekly increase, indicating bond investors are pricing considerably less turbulence. Sector rotation confirms this defensive positioning, with Materials, Utilities, and Energy showing participation above 90% while Technology and Communication Services lag below 50%, and the transport-heavy IYT at 74% breadth dramatically outpacing the tech-concentrated QQQ at just 48%. The immediate catalyst watch centers on Friday's February jobs report, where nonfarm payrolls are expected to decelerate to 70K from 130K, following yesterday's surprisingly strong ISM Services PMI reading of 56.1 versus 53.0 estimated—the strongest since August 2022—and ADP employment surging to 63K against just 19K expected. The services strength complicates the picture, particularly with the ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices component falling to 63.0 from 66.6 but still reflecting elevated inflation pressures across 80% of the economy. Today's initial jobless claims estimated at 215K versus 212K prior and Q4 unit labor costs will help
Key themes: Watch convergence signals closely. Stocks where insiders, institutions, and politicians agree tend to show stronger directional moves.