Know What They Know
🐷 PIG ROAST
💬 Word on the Street
While Rep. Virginia Foxx quietly added Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) to her portfolio, NRG Energy (NRG) insiders executed a staggering $5.3 billion in sales—part of a $9.1 billion net outflow day that had smart money heading for the exits even as the VIX spiked 18% and CEOs like Jeff Green at The Trade Desk (TTD) doubled down on their battered stocks. Meanwhile, OpenAI's e-commerce ambitions spooked nobody who matters: Booking Holdings (BKNG) rocketed 8.5% and Expedia (EXPE) surged 13.4% after hours as institutional traders shrugged off AI checkout fears. Here's what smart money did today while everyone else was panicking about travel bots.
We're about a fifth of the way through Year 2 of Trump's second term, and the major indices are tracking remarkably close to historical norms—SPY sits just 0.1% ahead of the typical 2nd Term Year 2 pattern while QQQ lags by about 1%, which isn't unusual given tech's volatility in midterm cycles. Historical data shows Year 2 tends to be the choppiest of the four-year presidential cycle, averaging around 3.5% for the full year with most of those gains backloaded into the second half, though the next six weeks through mid-March have historically added another 1.5% as Q1 earnings season unfolds. The current performance suggests we're right in the middle of the typical Year 2 sideways grind that historically precedes stronger action as political uncertainty around the midterm elections starts getting priced in later this spring.
The Big Idea: When insiders, institutions, AND politicians all bet on the same stock? That's convergence — and historically, these aligned signals tend to pack more punch than solo moves. We track the smart money so you don't have to.
ETF Institutional funds adding/removing positions
INSIDER Corporate executives buying/selling their own stock
CONGRESS Politicians making trades (yes, we see you)
▲ + Buying Rising Stock: Smart money accumulating as price rises — ideal alignment
+ Buying Falling Stock: Smart money accumulating while price drops — falling knife risk
▲ - Selling Rising Stock: Smart money exiting while price still rising — warning signal
- Selling Falling Stock: Smart money exiting as price drops — confirms downtrend
The Bottom Line: Convergence + aligned momentum = strongest setups. Convergence + divergent momentum = proceed with caution. This isn't financial advice — it's intelligence. What you do with it is on you.
📚 Jargon Buster
Ex-Dividend Date
The day your shares wake up poorer because the company already mailed the checks. Stock drops by the dividend amount like clockwork.
TSLA
Tesla, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
ORCL
Oracle Corporation
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
TTD
The Trade Desk, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
CRWV
CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
KO
The Coca-Cola Company
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
EMR
Emerson Electric Co.
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
ABT
Abbott Laboratories
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
FDS
FactSet Research Systems Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
JNJ
Johnson & Johnson
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
DASH
DoorDash, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
The VIX climbed 18.0% this week to reach 21.15, moving into elevated fear territory as equity market participants priced in increased uncertainty. Meanwhile, the MOVE index rose 26.3% to 14.54 but remains at historically low levels, indicating bond market expectations for volatility continue to be subdued despite the sharp weekly increase. This divergence suggests heightened concern specific to equity markets while fixed income traders appear relatively unconcerned about near-term Treasury volatility.
|| Market Sutra ||
"You trade your belief in the future, not the facts of the present."
— Early investors in Amazon had little present data—only conviction.
Market breadth remains middling with major indices showing participation rates between 43% and 60%, while a clear defensive rotation has emerged as Utilities and Energy lead with participation above 95% and Consumer Staples at 78%. Growth and cyclical sectors are lagging significantly, with Technology at just 33% and Financials at 30%, suggesting investors have repositioned toward traditionally defensive areas of the market. The divergence between defensive sector strength and weak participation in growth-oriented names indicates a notable shift in market character from the risk-on positioning that characterized earlier periods.
Fed net liquidity stood at $6.63 trillion as of March 04, up $15.1 billion week-over-week, indicating a modest expansion in system liquidity that historically correlates with supportive conditions for risk assets. The next H.4.1 Federal Reserve balance sheet update releases Thursday, March 12, which will show whether this liquidity expansion continues or reverses.
Yesterday's data painted a mixed picture for inflation and labor market health, with unit labor costs surging to 2.8% versus expectations of a -0.7% decline—a significant 3.5 percentage point beat that marks a sharp reversal from the -1.8% prior reading—while productivity growth slowed to 2.8% from 5.2%, missing the 4.0% estimate by 1.2 points and suggesting rising wage pressures aren't being offset by efficiency gains. Export prices also ran hotter than expected at 0.6% versus 0.4% estimates, though initial jobless claims at 213K remained near historically low levels consistent with a still-tight labor market. Today's focus shifts to the February employment report where nonfarm payrolls are expected to cool sharply to 70K from 130K—potentially the weakest reading since pandemic distortions cleared—alongside retail sales data for January that's projected at -0.3% following December's -0.1% contraction, which would mark back-to-back monthly declines for the first time since mid-2023 and raise questions about consumer resilience heading into Q1.
# Institutional Flow Summary Exchange-traded funds showed mixed positioning in mega-cap technology this week, with 596 ETFs adding Broadcom shares while 430 reduced their holdings, and a similar split in Tesla (583 adding vs 406 removing). The data suggests rotation within the semiconductor space, as 569 ETFs increased Micron positions while Microsoft saw net reduction with 359 ETFs trimming exposure, indicating institutional rebalancing across chip makers and software giants rather than broad sector exit.
AVGO
Broadcom Inc.
⭐
TSLA
Tesla, Inc.
⭐
MU
Micron Technology, Inc.
⭐
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
⭐
INTC
Intel Corporation
⭐
AVGO
Broadcom Inc.
⭐
TSLA
Tesla, Inc.
⭐
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
⭐
PLTR
Palantir Technologies Inc.
⭐
ABBV
AbbVie Inc.
⭐
Rep. Virginia Foxx purchased ARLP, Rep. Tim Moore purchased DNUT while selling COIN, Rep. Cleo Fields purchased AAPL, Rep. Jake Auchincloss sold STT, and Rep. Scott Mr Franklin sold HSY. The recent activity shows members adding positions in energy partnerships, consumer brands, and big tech, while reducing exposure to cryptocurrency-related stocks and financial services.
ARLP
Alliance Resource Partners, L.P.
⭐
CONGRESS
DNUT
Krispy Kreme, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
AAPL
Apple Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
SMPL
The Simply Good Foods Company
⭐
CONGRESS
PGR
The Progressive Corporation
⭐
CONGRESS
COIN
Coinbase Global, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
STT
State Street Corporation
⭐
CONGRESS
HSY
The Hershey Company
⭐
CONGRESS
HSY
The Hershey Company
⭐
CONGRESS
WAT
Waters Corporation
⭐
CONGRESS
Multiple insiders accumulated shares at TTD with 9 participants and VST with 6 participants, while on the distribution side, 4 insiders at NRG collectively sold $5.3 billion in stock. The overall insider activity showed balanced signals with 15 accumulation events matching 15 distribution events across the tracked companies.
PSA
Public Storage
⭐
INSIDER
TTD
The Trade Desk, Inc.
⭐
INSIDER
VST
Vistra Corp.
⭐
INSIDER
KO
The Coca-Cola Company
⭐
INSIDER
ABT
Abbott Laboratories
⭐
INSIDER
NRG
NRG Energy, Inc.
⭐
INSIDER
BTSG
BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock
⭐
INSIDER
SARO
StandardAero, Inc.
⭐
INSIDER
WMT
Walmart Inc.
⭐
INSIDER
PLTR
Palantir Technologies Inc.
⭐
INSIDER
Today's earnings calendar features 123 companies reporting results, with OTP.BD and 2884.TW showing recent accumulation patterns while ARTO.JK and EDN.BA have experienced distribution activity ahead of their reports. Yesterday's session saw significant moves in TNGX, which surged 47.6%, while DSGR declined 26.7% and PMOIF advanced 21.9%. Tomorrow's calendar expands to 239 companies scheduled to report quarterly results.
TNGX
Tango Therapeutics, Inc.
⭐
MISS
+47.6%
DSGR
Distribution Solutions Group, Inc.
⭐
MISS
-26.7%
PMOIF
Harbour Energy plc
⭐
BEAT
+21.9%
HBRIY
Harbour Energy plc
⭐
BEAT
+21.7%
AMP.MI
Amplifon S.p.A.
⭐
BEAT
-21.5%
VSCO
Victoria's Secret & Co.
⭐
BEAT
-19.8%
HBR.L
Harbour Energy plc
⭐
MET
+17.1%
ADRZY
Andritz AG
⭐
MET
-16.9%
0HYA.L
Ciena Corporation
⭐
BEAT
-16.3%
WLYB
John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
⭐
BEAT
+14.0%
OTP.BD
OTP Bank Nyrt.
⭐
2884.TW
E.SUN Financial Holding Company, Ltd.
⭐
6505.TW
Formosa Petrochemical Corporation
⭐
2890.TW
SinoPac Financial Holdings Company Limited
⭐
200880.KS
Seoyon E-Hwa Co., Ltd.
⭐
8299.TWO
Phison Electronics Corp.
⭐
2449.TW
King Yuan Electronics Co., Ltd.
⭐
1326.TW
Formosa Chemicals & Fibre Corporation
⭐
7279.T
Hi-Lex Corporation
⭐
9824.T
Senshu Electric Co.,Ltd.
⭐
000975.SZ
Shanjin International Gold Co., Ltd.
⭐
2353.T
NIPPON PARKING DEVELOPMENT Co.,Ltd.
⭐
2371.TW
Tatung Co., Ltd.
⭐
EMBR3.SA
Embraer S.A.
⭐
RATCH.BK
Ratch Group Public Company Limited
⭐
014680.KS
Hansol Chemical Co., Ltd.
⭐
TATN.ME
PJSC Tatneft
⭐
1303.TW
Nan Ya Plastics Corporation
⭐
091700.KQ
Partron Co., Ltd.
⭐
2368.TW
Gold Circuit Electronics Ltd.
⭐
2883.TW
KGI Financial Holding Co., Ltd.
⭐
ORCL.SW
Oracle Corporation
⭐
TTKOM.IS
Türk Telekomünikasyon Anonim Sirketi
⭐
048530.KQ
iNtRON Biotechnology, Inc.
⭐
4958.TW
Zhen Ding Technology Holding Limited
⭐
Smart money flows this week reveal a notable divergence in conviction across different participant groups. Corporate insiders showed balanced activity with 15 accumulation events matching 15 distribution events, though the details tell a more nuanced story: nine insiders accumulated shares at The Trade Desk while six piled into Vast Solar, even as four insiders at NRG Energy collectively distributed $5.3 billion in stock. Congressional activity from Rep. Virginia Foxx, Rep. Tim Moore, Rep. Cleo Fields, Rep. Jake Auchincloss, and Rep. Scott Mr Franklin showed members adding positions in energy partnerships, consumer brands including Krispy Kreme, and Apple while reducing exposure to Coinbase and financial services names like State Street. Institutional positioning in exchange-traded funds displayed rotation within mega-cap technology rather than wholesale sector abandonment, with 596 ETFs adding Broadcom and 569 increasing Micron positions even as 359 trimmed Microsoft exposure, suggesting rebalancing across chip makers and software giants. The accumulation signals outnumbered distribution 30 to zero, with Tesla, Oracle, and The Trade Desk leading the list while SPY strength registered 57.0%. The market finds itself roughly one-fifth through Year 2 of Trump's second term, tracking historical patterns with remarkable precision as SPY sits just 0.1% ahead of typical second-term Year 2 performance while QQQ lags by about 1%. This alignment with historical norms comes during what tends to be the choppiest year of the four-year presidential cycle, typically averaging around 3.5% for the full year with gains backloaded into the second half, though the next six weeks through mid-March have historically added another 1.5% as first-quarter earnings season unfolds. The VIX climbed 18.0% this week to 21.15, entering elevated fear territory, while the MOVE index rose 26.3% to 14.54 but remains at historically low levels, creating a divergence that suggests heightened equity-specific concern while bond traders remain relatively unconcerned about near-term Treasury volatility. Market breadth tells a clear defensive rotation story, with Utilities and Energy showing participation above 95% and Consumer Staples at 78%, while growth-oriented sectors lag significantly as Technology registers just 33% participation and Financials sit at 30%, marking a notable shift from earlier risk-on positioning. Today's economic calendar brings the February employment report where nonfarm payrolls are expected to cool sharply to 70,000 from 130,000, potentially the weakest reading since pandemic distortions cleared, alongside January retail sales projected at negative 0.3% following December's negative 0.1% contraction, which would mark back-to-back monthly declines for the first time since mid-2023 and raise questions about consumer resilience heading into the first quarter. Yesterday's data already painted a concerning inflation picture as unit labor costs surged to 2.8% versus expectations of a negative 0.7% decline, a massive 3.5 percentage point beat that marks a sharp reversal from the negative 1.8% prior reading, while
Key themes: Watch convergence signals closely. Stocks where insiders, institutions, and politicians agree tend to show stronger directional moves.