Know What They Know
🐷 PIG ROAST
💬 Word on the Street
While Rep. Gilbert Cisneros (D-CA) quietly scooped Federal Signal Corporation (FSS) shares worth up to $15,000, four insiders at NRG Energy (NRG) stampeded for the exits with a staggering $5.3 billion in sales—and that's just the tip of today's $11.4 billion net outflow iceberg. Meanwhile, as the VIX spiked 14.6% to 24.2 and the Fed pumped in $17.4 billion of fresh liquidity, chemical stocks CF Industries (CF), LyondellBasell Industries (LYB), and Dow Inc. (DOW) went absolutely vertical in after-hours trading on Middle East chaos and earnings euphoria. Here's what smart money is doing today.
We're roughly 20% through the second year of Trump's second term, and both SPY and QQQ are tracking about a percentage point below their historical averages for this phase of the presidential cycle. The concerning part is we're also lagging the typical 20-year seasonal pattern, with SPY underperforming by half a point despite being in a period that historically adds another 1.5% by mid-March. If the historical second-term Year 2 pattern holds—which has averaged 3.5% full-year returns for SPY—the market would need to add roughly 3.7% over the remaining 200 trading days to match that baseline, though past performance obviously doesn't guarantee these seasonal tailwinds will materialize this time around.
The Big Idea: When insiders, institutions, AND politicians all bet on the same stock? That's convergence — and historically, these aligned signals tend to pack more punch than solo moves. We track the smart money so you don't have to.
ETF Institutional funds adding/removing positions
INSIDER Corporate executives buying/selling their own stock
CONGRESS Politicians making trades (yes, we see you)
▲ + Buying Rising Stock: Smart money accumulating as price rises — ideal alignment
+ Buying Falling Stock: Smart money accumulating while price drops — falling knife risk
▲ - Selling Rising Stock: Smart money exiting while price still rising — warning signal
- Selling Falling Stock: Smart money exiting as price drops — confirms downtrend
The Bottom Line: Convergence + aligned momentum = strongest setups. Convergence + divergent momentum = proceed with caution. This isn't financial advice — it's intelligence. What you do with it is on you.
📚 Jargon Buster
Fed Funds Rate
The interest rate banks charge each other overnight. Jerome turns this knob and the entire world screams.
TTD
The Trade Desk, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
AZO
AutoZone, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
KO
The Coca-Cola Company
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
EMR
Emerson Electric Co.
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
MCD
McDonald's Corporation
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
RTX
RTX Corporation
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
JNJ
Johnson & Johnson
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
GD
General Dynamics Corporation
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
HON
Honeywell International Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
AMCR
Amcor plc
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
Equity market volatility surged into elevated territory this week, with the VIX climbing 14.6% to reach 24.23, reflecting heightened uncertainty among options traders as fear levels pushed above the typical range. In contrast, bond market volatility told a different story, as the MOVE index declined 12.1% to 12.78, indicating relatively calm conditions in fixed income markets. This divergence between equity and bond volatility suggests investors are pricing in stock-specific concerns rather than broader systemic risks that would typically affect both asset classes simultaneously.
|| Market Sutra ||
"What you measure shapes what you see."
— Investors obsessed with P/E ratios missed Amazon's cash-flow power in the early 2000s
Market breadth remains compressed with major indices showing only 37-38% of constituents above their moving averages, while transportation stocks lag further at just 14%. Defensive sectors including Energy, Utilities, and Real Estate are demonstrating relative strength with 55-96% participation, contrasting sharply with growth-oriented areas like Semiconductors and Consumer Discretionary showing participation rates below 30%. This defensive leadership pattern typically emerges when investors rotate away from cyclical and technology exposures toward more traditionally stable sectors.
As of March 11, Fed net liquidity stood at $6.65 trillion, increasing $17.4 billion week-over-week, with the next H.4.1 release scheduled for Thursday, March 19. This uptick in liquidity typically correlates with easier financial conditions and increased risk asset support, as more liquidity in the system generally reduces funding pressures and provides additional capital available for market deployment.
Yesterday's data painted a mixed picture as housing starts surged 7.2% to 1.487M (well above the 1.35M estimate), while building permits dropped 5.4% against expectations of a 1.42% increase—suggesting the strong starts print may not sustain as permits typically lead actual construction activity. The trade deficit narrowed sharply to $54.5B from $72.9B (versus $66.6B expected), driven by a $14.8B jump in exports to $302.1B, while the Atlanta Fed raised its Q1 GDP tracking estimate to 2.7% from 2.1%, indicating resilient growth momentum despite tightening financial conditions. Today's focus shifts to the Q4 GDP second revision (expected at 1.4% versus the prior 4.4% print, marking a significant deceleration) and January's PCE inflation data, where core PCE month-over-month is estimated to hold steady at 0.4%—a pace that would keep the Fed cautious about rate cuts given its status as the central bank's preferred inflation gauge.
Institutional activity shows a split decision on mega-cap technology, with 646 ETFs adding MSFT positions while 373 reduced them, and similar two-way flow in AVGO (645 adding, 451 removing), suggesting portfolio rebalancing within the semiconductor and software space. Memory chipmaker MU attracted 594 ETF buyers amid the AI infrastructure buildout, while healthcare name GILD saw 343 ETFs trim positions, indicating a potential rotation from defensive sectors into cyclical technology exposure.
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
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AVGO
Broadcom Inc.
⭐
MU
Micron Technology, Inc.
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INTC
Intel Corporation
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GILD
Gilead Sciences, Inc.
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AVGO
Broadcom Inc.
⭐
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
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GILD
Gilead Sciences, Inc.
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ABBV
AbbVie Inc.
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MRK
Merck & Co., Inc.
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Congressional trading activity shows purchases in financial services, with Rep. Gilbert Cisneros acquiring Federal Signal Corporation (FSS) and Rep. April Delaney adding positions in both EMCOR Group (EME) and Nasdaq Inc. (NDAQ). On the selling side, Rep. Pete Sessions exited Verizon Communications (VZ) while Rep. Kelly Louise Morrison reduced holdings in Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) across two transactions.
FSS
Federal Signal Corporation
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CONGRESS
EME
EMCOR Group, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
NDAQ
Nasdaq, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
AVGO
Broadcom Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
MEDP
Medpace Holdings, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
VZ
Verizon Communications Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
AJG
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.
⭐
CONGRESS
AJG
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.
⭐
CONGRESS
AJG
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.
⭐
CONGRESS
THR
Thermon Group Holdings, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
Multiple insiders accumulated shares at The Trade Desk (9 insiders), General Dynamics (24 insiders), and Alkami Technology (6 insiders) during the reporting period. On the distribution side, clusters of insiders sold positions at NRG Energy (4 insiders, $5.3B), Medallia (5 insiders, $2.2B), and BrightSpring Health Services (5 insiders, $1.6B).
TTD
The Trade Desk, Inc.
⭐
INSIDER
GD
General Dynamics Corporation
⭐
INSIDER
ALKT
Alkami Technology, Inc.
⭐
INSIDER
VRT
Vertiv Holdings Co
⭐
INSIDER
LIN
Linde plc
⭐
INSIDER
NRG
NRG Energy, Inc.
⭐
INSIDER
MDLN
Medline Inc.
⭐
INSIDER
BTSG
BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock
⭐
INSIDER
WMT
Walmart Inc.
⭐
INSIDER
SHC
Sotera Health Company
⭐
INSIDER
Yesterday's session saw significant volatility with RWE.SW surging 89.8% while GPGI declined 23.7%. Today's earnings calendar features 282 reporting companies, with institutional activity showing accumulation in INKP.JK and VAPORES.SN, while smart money has been distributing shares of BRPT.JK and ARTO.JK ahead of their reports. Tomorrow's slate includes 186 companies scheduled to report quarterly results.
RWE.SW
RWE AG
⭐
BEAT
+89.8%
ACDC
ProFrac Holding Corp.
⭐
MISS
+31.1%
GPGI
GPGI, Inc.
⭐
MISS
-23.7%
SCR.TO
Strathcona Resources Ltd
⭐
MISS
+18.8%
8240.TWO
Wah Hong Industrial Corp.
⭐
BEAT
+17.5%
TIC
TIC Solutions, Inc.
⭐
MISS
-17.5%
IPX
IperionX Limited
⭐
BEAT
-15.5%
GIII
G-III Apparel Group, Ltd.
⭐
MISS
-13.2%
CSNA3.SA
Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional
⭐
BEAT
-12.5%
TNZ.TO
Tenaz Energy Corp.
⭐
BEAT
+12.1%
INKP.JK
PT Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk
⭐
VAPORES.SN
Compañía Sud Americana de Vapores S.A.
⭐
2891.TW
CTBC Financial Holding Co., Ltd.
⭐
2885.TW
Yuanta Financial Holding Co., Ltd.
⭐
2880.TW
Hua Nan Financial Holdings Co., Ltd.
⭐
2603.TW
Evergreen Marine Corporation (Taiwan) Ltd.
⭐
600989.SS
Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co., Ltd.
⭐
4958.TW
Zhen Ding Technology Holding Limited
⭐
002916.SZ
Shennan Circuit Company Limited
⭐
2695.T
Kura Sushi,Inc.
⭐
186A.T
Astroscale Holdings Inc
⭐
4369.T
Tri Chemical Laboratories Inc.
⭐
4996.T
Kumiai Chemical Industry Co., Ltd.
⭐
1717.TW
Eternal Materials Co., Ltd.
⭐
CHHQF
China Hongqiao Group Limited
⭐
058470.KQ
LEENO Industrial Inc.
⭐
240810.KQ
Wonik Ips Co., Ltd
⭐
140410.KQ
Mezzion Pharma Co.,Ltd.
⭐
226950.KQ
OliX Pharmaceuticals,Inc
⭐
357780.KQ
Soulbrain Co., Ltd.
⭐
005850.KS
SL Corporation
⭐
ILC.SN
Inversiones La Construcción S.A.
⭐
SK.SN
Sigdo Koppers S.A.
⭐
048410.KQ
Hyundai Bioscience Co., Ltd.
⭐
019210.KQ
YG-1 Co., Ltd.
⭐
Smart money flows are revealing a nuanced picture of positioning across different investor categories. Institutional activity shows a notable split on mega-cap technology, with 646 ETFs adding Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) positions while 373 reduced them, and similar two-way action in Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) with 645 ETFs adding and 451 removing, suggesting active rebalancing rather than directional conviction. Memory chipmaker Micron Technology Inc. (MU) attracted 594 ETF buyers amid the ongoing AI infrastructure buildout, while Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD) saw 343 ETFs trim positions in what appears to be rotation from defensive healthcare into cyclical technology exposure. On the insider front, concentrated accumulation emerged at The Trade Desk Inc. (TTD) with 9 insiders buying, General Dynamics Corporation (GD) with 24 insiders adding shares, and Alkami Technology Inc. (ALKT) with 6 insider purchasers, while distribution clusters appeared at NRG Energy Inc. (NRG) with 4 insiders selling $5.3 billion, Medallia Inc. (MDLA) with 5 insiders offloading $2.2 billion, and BrightSpring Health Services Inc. (BTSG) with 5 insiders distributing $1.6 billion. Congressional trading centered on financial services and infrastructure, with Rep. Gilbert Cisneros acquiring Federal Signal Corporation (FSS), Rep. April Delaney adding EMCOR Group Inc. (EME) and Nasdaq Inc. (NDAQ), while Rep. Pete Sessions exited Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) and Rep. Kelly Louise Morrison reduced Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) across two transactions. Market structure is showing signs of stress beneath the surface, as we're tracking roughly 20 percent through the second year of Trump's second term with both SPY and QQQ running about a percentage point below their historical averages for this phase of the presidential cycle. The seasonal backdrop adds another layer of concern, with SPY underperforming the typical 20-year seasonal pattern by half a point despite being in a period that historically adds another 1.5 percent by mid-March, and if the historical second-term Year 2 pattern averaging 3.5 percent full-year returns were to hold, SPY would need to add roughly 3.7 percent over the remaining 200 trading days to match that baseline. Volatility dynamics reflect this underlying tension, with the VIX surging 14.6 percent to reach 24.23 as equity market uncertainty climbed into elevated territory, while the MOVE index declined 12.1 percent to 12.78, indicating that bond markets remained relatively calm and suggesting investors are pricing stock-specific concerns rather than systemic risks. Market breadth compression tells the same defensive story, with major indices showing only 37 to 38 percent of constituents above their moving averages and transportation stocks lagging at just 14 percent participation, while defensive sectors including Energy, Utilities, and Real Estate are demonstrating
Key themes: Watch convergence signals closely. Stocks where insiders, institutions, and politicians agree tend to show stronger directional moves.