Know What They Know
🐷 PIG ROAST
💬 Word on the Street
While the VIX plunged 7.8% to 23.5 and Rep. Gilbert Cisneros (D-CA) quietly picked up Federal Signal Corporation (FSS) shares worth $1,001 to $15,000, five insiders at NRG Energy (NRG) stampeded for the exits with $5.3 billion in sales—the kind of number that makes you wonder what they know that we don't. Meanwhile, after-hours action turned space stocks into the market's new casino, with Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) rocketing 10.2% to $78 and AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) climbing 7.4% to $95 on launch hype, even as Western Digital (WDC) surged 9.6% to $313 while big institutions like Cinctive dumped 73% of their stakes. Here's what smart money is doing today.
We're 55 trading days into Year 2 of Trump's second term, and both SPY and QQQ are running about 2.8% below where they typically sit at this point in the presidential cycle—with SPY down 1.8% year-to-date versus the historical Year 2 average gain of around 3.5% for the full year. The current underperformance is notable given that second-term Year 2s have historically added another 1.5% through mid-March, though markets don't always follow the script. If the historical pattern holds for the remainder of the year, we'd be looking at a catchup scenario from current levels, but it's worth noting that Year 2 tends to be the weakest year in the four-year presidential cycle anyway—so institutional positioning in the coming quarters will be telling.
The Big Idea: When insiders, institutions, AND politicians all bet on the same stock? That's convergence — and historically, these aligned signals tend to pack more punch than solo moves. We track the smart money so you don't have to.
ETF Institutional funds adding/removing positions
INSIDER Corporate executives buying/selling their own stock
CONGRESS Politicians making trades (yes, we see you)
▲ + Buying Rising Stock: Smart money accumulating as price rises — ideal alignment
+ Buying Falling Stock: Smart money accumulating while price drops — falling knife risk
▲ - Selling Rising Stock: Smart money exiting while price still rising — warning signal
- Selling Falling Stock: Smart money exiting as price drops — confirms downtrend
The Bottom Line: Convergence + aligned momentum = strongest setups. Convergence + divergent momentum = proceed with caution. This isn't financial advice — it's intelligence. What you do with it is on you.
📚 Jargon Buster
Terminal Rate
The peak interest rate everyone thinks the Fed will stop at. Like the top of a rollercoaster before the drop… or another loop.
TTD
The Trade Desk, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
EMR
Emerson Electric Co.
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
MCD
McDonald's Corporation
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
ALKT
Alkami Technology, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
KVUE
Kenvue Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
RTX
RTX Corporation
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
JNJ
Johnson & Johnson
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
GD
General Dynamics Corporation
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
BK
The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
V
Visa Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
The VIX declined 7.8% week-over-week to 23.51, remaining in elevated territory that suggests heightened uncertainty in equity markets, though the downward move indicates some fear subsided during the week. Meanwhile, the MOVE index measuring bond market volatility rose 2.5% to 14.83, staying at historically low levels that reflect relative calm in fixed income markets. This divergence shows equity traders pricing in notably more uncertainty than their bond market counterparts, with stock volatility elevated while Treasury volatility remains muted.
|| Market Sutra ||
"A bull market builds wealth; a bear market reveals wisdom."
— 2022 exposed who had risk frameworks and who only had bull-market luck
Market breadth remains narrow with only a third of SPY and QQQ constituents trading above their moving averages, while defensive sectors like Energy and Utilities show the strongest technical performance at 90%+ of their components in uptrends. A notable divergence has emerged between these traditionally defensive areas and growth-oriented sectors, with Semiconductors and Consumer Discretionary showing participation rates below 21% and transportation stocks particularly weak at just 9% breadth. The concentration in defensive sectors alongside weak cyclical participation typically characterizes a risk-off environment where investors rotate toward stability rather than growth.
As of March 11, Fed net liquidity stands at $6.65 trillion, up $17.4 billion week-over-week, indicating an expansion in system liquidity that historically correlates with supportive conditions for risk assets. The next H.4.1 release drops Thursday, March 19, which will show whether this liquidity injection trend continues or reverses.
Pending home sales rebounded sharply in February with a 1.8% monthly gain against expectations of a -0.5% decline, suggesting housing demand stabilized after January's drop, though crude oil inventories surged by 6.6 million barrels versus forecasts for a 0.6 million drawdown—a 7.2 million barrel miss that could pressure energy prices. Today's focus centers on the Federal Reserve's rate decision where markets expect a hold at 3.75%, though the real volatility will likely come from Chair Powell's press conference and the updated economic projections, while PPI data (expected at 0.3% versus last month's 0.5%) will provide the latest read on whether inflation pressures are continuing to moderate. Tomorrow's jobless claims (estimated at 215K) and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, which is forecast to cool from 16.3 to 10.0, will test whether the recent uptick in the Economic Surprise Index—now at +2.1 from +0.5 a week ago—represents genuine economic momentum or just a temporary bounce.
Exchange-traded funds demonstrated mixed conviction in the technology sector during the period, with 1,589 ETFs adding Microsoft positions while 1,004 reduced them, and particularly split action on Broadcom as 1,528 ETFs increased exposure while 1,087 decreased it. The flow data suggests institutional repositioning within semiconductor and software holdings, with memory chip maker Micron seeing net inflows across 1,478 ETFs while payment processor Visa experienced net outflows from 956 funds.
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
⭐
AVGO
Broadcom Inc.
⭐
MU
Micron Technology, Inc.
⭐
NOW
ServiceNow, Inc.
⭐
JNJ
Johnson & Johnson
⭐
AVGO
Broadcom Inc.
⭐
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
⭐
V
Visa Inc.
⭐
GILD
Gilead Sciences, Inc.
⭐
MU
Micron Technology, Inc.
⭐
Congressional trading activity shows members adding positions in Federal Signal Corporation (FSS), EMCOR Group (EME), and Infineon Technologies (IFNNY), while divesting from Verizon Communications (VZ) and Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG), with Rep. Kelly Louise Morrison executing two separate sales of AJG. The activity reflects a mixed approach with purchases spanning industrial manufacturing and semiconductor sectors, while sales concentrated in telecommunications and insurance brokerage.
FSS
Federal Signal Corporation
⭐
CONGRESS
EME
EMCOR Group, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
IFNNY
Infineon Technologies AG
⭐
CONGRESS
NDAQ
Nasdaq, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
MEDP
Medpace Holdings, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
VZ
Verizon Communications Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
AJG
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.
⭐
CONGRESS
AJG
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.
⭐
CONGRESS
AJG
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.
⭐
CONGRESS
THR
Thermon Group Holdings, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
Multiple insiders at three companies executed purchase transactions this week, with SNDA showing the widest participation at 8 insiders, followed by REEMF at 6 insiders and SVRE at 2 insiders. On the distribution side, FANG led with 28 insiders selling $2.4B in shares, while NRG saw 5 insiders dispose of $5.3B and MDLN recorded 5 insiders selling $2.2B in holdings.
REEMF
Rare Element Resources Ltd.
⭐
INSIDER
SVRE
SaverOne 2014 Ltd
⭐
INSIDER
SNDA
Sonida Senior Living, Inc.
⭐
INSIDER
CPNG
Coupang, Inc.
⭐
INSIDER
ALKT
Alkami Technology, Inc.
⭐
INSIDER
NRG
NRG Energy, Inc.
⭐
INSIDER
FANG
Diamondback Energy, Inc.
⭐
INSIDER
MDLN
Medline Inc.
⭐
INSIDER
BTSG
BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock
⭐
INSIDER
SHC
Sotera Health Company
⭐
INSIDER
Today's earnings calendar features 352 reporting companies, with recent accumulation signals detected in 087010.KQ and 039030.KQ ahead of their reports. Yesterday's session saw significant declines in TME, which dropped 18.6%, alongside notable selling pressure in BOBS and ASO, down 18.5% and 16.8% respectively. Institutional distribution patterns have emerged in DSSA.JK and NKE.BA as 198 companies prepare to report tomorrow.
TME
Tencent Music Entertainment Group
⭐
MISS
-18.6%
BOBS
Bob's Discount Furniture, Inc.
⭐
MISS
-18.5%
ASO
Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc.
⭐
MISS
-16.8%
ESLT
Elbit Systems Ltd.
⭐
BEAT
+15.6%
ESLT.TA
Elbit Systems Ltd.
⭐
BEAT
+13.9%
GDSN.MX
GDS Holdings Limited
⭐
BEAT
-12.4%
600309.SS
Wanhua Chemical Group Co., Ltd.
⭐
BEAT
-9.1%
8936.TWO
Kuo Toong International Co., Ltd.
⭐
MISS
+7.7%
MMK.VI
Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG
⭐
BEAT
-7.0%
2013.HK
Weimob Inc.
⭐
MET
-6.6%
087010.KQ
Peptron, Inc.
⭐
039030.KQ
EO Technics Co., Ltd.
⭐
ROSN.ME
PJSC Rosneft Oil Company
⭐
VAPORES.SN
Compañía Sud Americana de Vapores S.A.
⭐
218410.KQ
RFHIC Corporation
⭐
032190.KQ
Daou Data Corp.
⭐
014620.KQ
Sung Kwang Bend Co.,Ltd.
⭐
MU
Micron Technology, Inc.
⭐
230360.KQ
Echomarketing Co.,Ltd.
⭐
MTE.DE
Micron Technology, Inc.
⭐
060720.KQ
KHVATEC Co.,Ltd.
⭐
265520.KQ
Advanced Process Systems Corporation
⭐
002714.SZ
Muyuan Foods Co., Ltd.
⭐
005680.KS
Samyoung Electronics Co., Ltd
⭐
0175.HK
Geely Automobile Holdings Limited
⭐
ELSA.JK
PT Elnusa Tbk
⭐
VAPORES.SN
Compañía Sud Americana de Vapores S.A.
⭐
081660.KS
Misto Holdings Corp.
⭐
319660.KQ
PSK Inc.
⭐
KKGI.JK
PT Resource Alam Indonesia Tbk
⭐
082270.KQ
GemVax&KAEL Co.,Ltd
⭐
601088.SS
China Shenhua Energy Company Limited
⭐
1088.HK
China Shenhua Energy Company Limited
⭐
601899.SS
Zijin Mining Group Company Limited
⭐
600028.SS
China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation
⭐
Smart money flows reveal a coordinated narrative of institutional caution and selective positioning across multiple participant classes. Exchange-traded funds demonstrated split conviction on mega-cap technology, with 1,589 ETFs adding Microsoft positions while 1,004 reduced them, and similarly divided action on Broadcom as 1,528 ETFs increased exposure against 1,087 decreasing it. Corporate insiders at FANG executed the most significant distribution event with 28 insiders selling $2.4 billion in shares, while NRG saw 5 insiders dispose of $5.3 billion and MDLN recorded 5 insiders selling $2.2 billion in holdings. Congressional activity shows members adding positions in Federal Signal Corporation (FSS), EMCOR Group (EME), and Infineon Technologies (IFNNY) while divesting from Verizon Communications (VZ) and Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG), with Rep. Kelly Louise Morrison executing two separate sales of AJG. The institutional repositioning in memory chip maker Micron, which saw net inflows across 1,478 ETFs, contrasts sharply with payment processor Visa experiencing net outflows from 956 funds. Markets are underperforming the typical presidential cycle script, with both SPY and QQQ running about 2.8% below where they historically sit 55 trading days into Year 2 of a second term, as SPY trades down 1.8% year-to-date versus the historical Year 2 average gain of around 3.5% for the full year. The VIX declined 7.8% week-over-week to 23.51 but remains elevated, while the MOVE index measuring bond market volatility rose 2.5% to 14.83 at historically low levels, creating a divergence where equity traders price in notably more uncertainty than their bond market counterparts. Market breadth remains narrow with only a third of SPY and QQQ constituents trading above their moving averages, while defensive sectors like Energy and Utilities show the strongest technical performance at 90% or more of their components in uptrends. The concentration in defensive areas alongside weak cyclical participation characterizes a risk-off environment, with Semiconductors and Consumer Discretionary showing participation rates below 21% and transportation stocks particularly weak at just 9% breadth. The Federal Reserve rate decision today provides the critical near-term catalyst, with markets expecting a hold at 3.75% but real volatility likely emerging from Chair Powell's press conference and updated economic projections. Pending home sales rebounded sharply in February with a 1.8% monthly gain against expectations of a negative 0.5% decline, suggesting housing demand stabilized after January's drop, though crude oil inventories surged by 6.6 million barrels versus forecasts for a 0.6 million drawdown, a 7.2 million barrel miss that could pressure energy prices. Tomorrow's jobless claims estimated at 215,000 and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index forecast to cool from 16.3 to 10.0 will test whether the recent uptick in the Economic Surprise
Key themes: Watch convergence signals closely. Stocks where insiders, institutions, and politicians agree tend to show stronger directional moves.