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Know What They Know

March 18, 2026
*Not investment advice
🔥 PRE MARKET MOVERS
Pre-Market Session • 07:00 ET • $0.0T Total Volume
📈 Top Gainers by $ Volume
WDC +9.64% $4.4B
RKLB +10.21% $2.2B
ESLT +15.99% $428M
SEI +10.88% $395M
LMND +15.81% $371M
PL +10.08% $315M
RCAT +9.20% $241M
MTN +9.02% $182M
BTDR +12.80% $155M
BW +26.92% $136M
📉 Top Losers by $ Volume
NBIS -10.41% $6.6B
CRDO -10.97% $1.6B
AAOI -8.23% $1.4B
TTD -7.42% $963M
TME -24.65% $726M
AXTI -8.33% $438M
SMTC -11.00% $417M
FRPT -10.55% $349M
ASO -11.70% $249M
CTMX -19.26% $108M

🐷 PIG ROAST

WDC +9.6% fxempire.com: Up 9.6% to $313 amid ancient 1994 inflow hype, yet big funds like Cinctive dump 73%—institutions raiding the piggy bank.
RKLB +10.2% benzinga.com: Rockets 10.2% to $78 on Neutron buzz and SpaceX IPO dreams, YTD barely +3%—space cadets finally catching some orbit gravity.
ASTS +7.4% seekingalpha.com: Climbs 7.4% to $95 on "game-changing" 2026 launch upgrade, down 31% from peaks—YTD +14% bets on space phones that might actually connect.
SEI +10.9% businesswire.com: Surges 10.9% to $63 after 900MW expansion and Advent's $40M bet, YTD +25%—energy frac king flexing pipes while oil dances.
LMND +15.8% fool.com: Pops 15.8% to $66 on undervalued AI insurance buzz despite "Hold" rating, YTD -12%—squeezed lemons tasting sweet for once, down 42% from highs.
NBIS -10.4% fool.com: Crashes 10.4% to $116 on capital raise fears despite Meta's $27B deal, YTD +29%—AI cloud dreams drowned in dilution bucks.
CRDO -11.0% gurufocus.com: Dives 11% to $104 ignoring fresh AI networking toys, YTD -27%, down 45% from highs—data center darlings hit reality's speed bump.
AAOI -8.2% globenewswire.com: Tumbles 8.2% to $86 despite ultra-power AI optic flex, YTD +118%—analysts shrug "Hold" while money pours in, party poopers.
TTD -7.4% fool.com: Plunges 7.4% to $25 after Publicis audit busts ad pact, YTD -33%, down 70% from highs—trade desk caught with hands in cookie jar.
TME -24.6% fool.com: Nosedives 24.6% to $11 on earnings miss (rev $179M vs $1205M est), shrinking users

💬 Word on the Street

While the VIX plunged 7.8% to 23.5 and Rep. Gilbert Cisneros (D-CA) quietly picked up Federal Signal Corporation (FSS) shares worth $1,001 to $15,000, five insiders at NRG Energy (NRG) stampeded for the exits with $5.3 billion in sales—the kind of number that makes you wonder what they know that we don't. Meanwhile, after-hours action turned space stocks into the market's new casino, with Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) rocketing 10.2% to $78 and AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) climbing 7.4% to $95 on launch hype, even as Western Digital (WDC) surged 9.6% to $313 while big institutions like Cinctive dumped 73% of their stakes. Here's what smart money is doing today.

30
Accumulation
0
Distribution
📈 32.8%
SPY Strength
😱 23.5 ↓
VIX
💧 $6.65T ↑
Fed Liquidity
💰 $2407162.1B
Smart Money Buying
💸 $13.6B
Smart Money Selling
📈 $2407148.6B
Net Inflow
🌤️ MARKET WEATHER
Presidential Cycle: Year 2 (2nd Term Year 2) • Donald Trump (R)

We're 55 trading days into Year 2 of Trump's second term, and both SPY and QQQ are running about 2.8% below where they typically sit at this point in the presidential cycle—with SPY down 1.8% year-to-date versus the historical Year 2 average gain of around 3.5% for the full year. The current underperformance is notable given that second-term Year 2s have historically added another 1.5% through mid-March, though markets don't always follow the script. If the historical pattern holds for the remainder of the year, we'd be looking at a catchup scenario from current levels, but it's worth noting that Year 2 tends to be the weakest year in the four-year presidential cycle anyway—so institutional positioning in the coming quarters will be telling.

SPY -1.8% YTD
30% 10% -25% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 5.6% -3.7% 1.8% -3.1%
2026 Actual
2nd Term Year 2 Avg
Year 2 Projection
vs 2nd Term Year 2: -2.8%
vs 20yr Seasonal: -2.8%
Day: 55 / 252
QQQ -1.8% YTD
30% 10% -25% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 5.5% -5.9% -3.4%
2026 Actual
2nd Term Year 2 Avg
Year 2 Projection
vs 2nd Term Year 2: -2.0%
vs 20yr Seasonal: -4.1%
Day: 55 / 252
📊 2nd Term Year 2 years historically average 3.5% for SPY. Current YTD: -1.8%
📖 HOW TO READ THIS REPORT

The Big Idea: When insiders, institutions, AND politicians all bet on the same stock? That's convergence — and historically, these aligned signals tend to pack more punch than solo moves. We track the smart money so you don't have to.

Signal Badges

ETF Institutional funds adding/removing positions
INSIDER Corporate executives buying/selling their own stock
CONGRESS Politicians making trades (yes, we see you)

Momentum Icons

+ Buying Rising Stock: Smart money accumulating as price rises — ideal alignment
+ Buying Falling Stock: Smart money accumulating while price drops — falling knife risk
- Selling Rising Stock: Smart money exiting while price still rising — warning signal
- Selling Falling Stock: Smart money exiting as price drops — confirms downtrend

The Bottom Line: Convergence + aligned momentum = strongest setups. Convergence + divergent momentum = proceed with caution. This isn't financial advice — it's intelligence. What you do with it is on you.

📚 Jargon Buster

Terminal Rate

The peak interest rate everyone thinks the Fed will stop at. Like the top of a rollercoaster before the drop… or another loop.

🎯 SMART MONEY CONVERGENCE
📈 Accumulation Detected (10)
TTD The Trade Desk, Inc. CONGRESS INSIDER ETF
+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -9.4% 3M -31.6% 1Y -53.5%
5 member(s) purchased N/A • 10 insiders purchased $197.5M • 467 ETFs increased positions
EMR Emerson Electric Co. CONGRESS INSIDER ETF
+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -5.4% 3M -3.0% 1Y +19.9%
1 member(s) purchased N/A • 10 insiders purchased $134.9M • 725 ETFs increased positions
MCD McDonald's Corporation CONGRESS INSIDER ETF
+ Buying Rising Stock 5D -0.5% 3M +3.0% 1Y +10.7%
2 member(s) purchased N/A • 11 insiders purchased $133.5M • 1026 ETFs increased positions
ALKT Alkami Technology, Inc. CONGRESS INSIDER ETF
+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -1.3% 3M -20.5% 1Y -29.9%
1 member(s) purchased N/A • 10 insiders purchased $120.4M • 160 ETFs increased positions
KVUE Kenvue Inc. CONGRESS INSIDER ETF
+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -1.1% 3M +2.5% 1Y -19.7%
4 member(s) purchased N/A • 3 insiders purchased $119.3M • 707 ETFs increased positions
RTX RTX Corporation CONGRESS INSIDER ETF
+ Buying Rising Stock 5D -1.7% 3M +13.8% 1Y +58.6%
3 member(s) purchased N/A • 18 insiders purchased $110.3M • 912 ETFs increased positions
JNJ Johnson & Johnson CONGRESS INSIDER ETF
+ Buying Rising Stock 5D -2.3% 3M +12.5% 1Y +49.5%
2 member(s) purchased N/A • 12 insiders purchased $104.5M • 1261 ETFs increased positions
GD General Dynamics Corporation CONGRESS INSIDER ETF
+ Buying Rising Stock 5D +0.2% 3M +5.6% 1Y +38.1%
1 member(s) purchased N/A • 32 insiders purchased $101.5M • 651 ETFs increased positions
BK The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation CONGRESS INSIDER ETF
+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +0.6% 3M -0.8% 1Y +44.4%
2 member(s) purchased N/A • 11 insiders purchased $101.2M • 780 ETFs increased positions
V Visa Inc. CONGRESS INSIDER ETF
+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -1.9% 3M -11.3% 1Y -6.5%
12 member(s) purchased N/A • 7 insiders purchased $84.7M • 1085 ETFs increased positions
😱 VOLATILITY & FEAR

The VIX declined 7.8% week-over-week to 23.51, remaining in elevated territory that suggests heightened uncertainty in equity markets, though the downward move indicates some fear subsided during the week. Meanwhile, the MOVE index measuring bond market volatility rose 2.5% to 14.83, staying at historically low levels that reflect relative calm in fixed income markets. This divergence shows equity traders pricing in notably more uncertainty than their bond market counterparts, with stock volatility elevated while Treasury volatility remains muted.

VIX
23.51
-7.8% WoW
📉
Elevated
MOVE
14.83
2.5% WoW
📈
Low

|| Market Sutra ||

"A bull market builds wealth; a bear market reveals wisdom."

— 2022 exposed who had risk frameworks and who only had bull-market luck

📊 MARKET REGIME

Market breadth remains narrow with only a third of SPY and QQQ constituents trading above their moving averages, while defensive sectors like Energy and Utilities show the strongest technical performance at 90%+ of their components in uptrends. A notable divergence has emerged between these traditionally defensive areas and growth-oriented sectors, with Semiconductors and Consumer Discretionary showing participation rates below 21% and transportation stocks particularly weak at just 9% breadth. The concentration in defensive sectors alongside weak cyclical participation typically characterizes a risk-off environment where investors rotate toward stability rather than growth.

Sector Strength
⛽ Energy
90.9%
+5.2%
⚡ Utilities
90.3%
+1.2%
🏠 Real Estate
41.9%
-0.5%
🛒 Consumer Staples
36.1%
-1.2%
💻 Technology
31.0%
-0.2%
📡 Communication
30.4%
-1.7%
🏭 Industrials
27.8%
-2.1%
🧱 Materials
26.9%
-0.7%
🏥 Healthcare
23.3%
-2.3%
🛍️ Consumer Discretionary
20.8%
-1.1%
🔌 Semiconductors
20.0%
-0.1%
🏦 Financials
11.8%
-1.0%
📈 INDEX BREADTH
SPY
32.8%
BEARISH
QQQ
33.7%
BEARISH
DIA
30.0%
BEARISH
IYT
9.3%
BEARISH
💧 FED LIQUIDITY
Net Liquidity: $6.65 Trillion
↑ $17.4B WoW

As of March 11, Fed net liquidity stands at $6.65 trillion, up $17.4 billion week-over-week, indicating an expansion in system liquidity that historically correlates with supportive conditions for risk assets. The next H.4.1 release drops Thursday, March 19, which will show whether this liquidity injection trend continues or reverses.

📅 ECONOMIC CALENDAR Surprise Index: +2.1

Pending home sales rebounded sharply in February with a 1.8% monthly gain against expectations of a -0.5% decline, suggesting housing demand stabilized after January's drop, though crude oil inventories surged by 6.6 million barrels versus forecasts for a 0.6 million drawdown—a 7.2 million barrel miss that could pressure energy prices. Today's focus centers on the Federal Reserve's rate decision where markets expect a hold at 3.75%, though the real volatility will likely come from Chair Powell's press conference and the updated economic projections, while PPI data (expected at 0.3% versus last month's 0.5%) will provide the latest read on whether inflation pressures are continuing to moderate. Tomorrow's jobless claims (estimated at 215K) and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, which is forecast to cool from 16.3 to 10.0, will test whether the recent uptick in the Economic Surprise Index—now at +2.1 from +0.5 a week ago—represents genuine economic momentum or just a temporary bounce.

Yesterday — Tuesday, March 17
7 events · 4 beats
14:00 Pending Home Sales YoY (Feb) -0.8% vs -1.8% est
14:00 Pending Home Sales MoM (Feb) 1.8% vs -0.5% est
20:30 API Crude Oil Stock Change (Mar/13) 6.6 vs -0.6 est
20:50 API Crude Oil Stock Change (Mar/13) 6.6 vs -0.6 est
Today — Wednesday, March 18
12 events · 12 upcoming
11:00 MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Mar/13) prev 6.19
12:30 Press Conference Pending
12:30 Core PPI MoM (Feb) est 0.3% / prev 0.8%
12:30 Producer Price Index MoM (Feb) est 0.3% / prev 0.5%
14:00 Factory Orders MoM (Jan) est 0.1% / prev -0.7%
14:30 EIA Gasoline Stocks Change (Mar/13) est -1.6 / prev -3.654
14:30 EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Mar/13) est -1.5M / prev 3.824M
18:00 FOMC Economic Projections Pending
18:00 Fed Interest Rate Decision est 3.75% / prev 3.75%
18:30 Press Conference Pending
18:30 Fed Press Conference Pending
20:00 Net Long-Term TIC Flows (Jan) est 71.6B / prev 28.0B
Tomorrow — Thursday, March 19
7 events · 4 high impact
12:30 Jobless Claims 4-Week Average (Mar/14) est 213.75K / prev 212.0K
12:30 Continuing Jobless Claims (Mar/07) est 1850.0K / prev 1850.0K
12:30 Initial Jobless Claims (Mar/14) est 215.0K / prev 213.0K
12:30 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Mar) est 10.0 / prev 16.3
14:00 New Home Sales (Jan) est 0.72M / prev 0.745M
16:00 Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1) prev 2.7
17:00 Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1) est 2.7% / prev 2.7%
🏦 INSTITUTIONAL FLOW

Exchange-traded funds demonstrated mixed conviction in the technology sector during the period, with 1,589 ETFs adding Microsoft positions while 1,004 reduced them, and particularly split action on Broadcom as 1,528 ETFs increased exposure while 1,087 decreased it. The flow data suggests institutional repositioning within semiconductor and software holdings, with memory chip maker Micron seeing net inflows across 1,478 ETFs while payment processor Visa experienced net outflows from 956 funds.

Top Buying
MSFT Microsoft Corporation
+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -1.6% 3M -16.5% 1Y +3.3%
1589 ETFs • 0 shares
AVGO Broadcom Inc.
+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -6.2% 3M -10.6% 1Y +65.5%
1528 ETFs • 0 shares
MU Micron Technology, Inc.
+ Buying Rising Stock 5D +14.5% 3M +91.5% 1Y +359.4%
1478 ETFs • 0 shares
NOW ServiceNow, Inc.
+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +0.1% 3M -32.5% 1Y -30.9%
1268 ETFs • 0 shares
JNJ Johnson & Johnson
+ Buying Rising Stock 5D -2.3% 3M +12.5% 1Y +49.5%
1261 ETFs • 0 shares
Top Selling
AVGO Broadcom Inc.
- Selling Falling Stock 5D -6.2% 3M -10.6% 1Y +65.5%
1087 ETFs • 0 shares
MSFT Microsoft Corporation
- Selling Falling Stock 5D -1.6% 3M -16.5% 1Y +3.3%
1004 ETFs • 0 shares
V Visa Inc.
- Selling Falling Stock 5D -1.9% 3M -11.3% 1Y -6.5%
956 ETFs • 0 shares
GILD Gilead Sciences, Inc.
- Selling Rising Stock 5D -2.2% 3M +20.7% 1Y +32.3%
943 ETFs • 0 shares
MU Micron Technology, Inc.
- Selling Rising Stock 5D +14.5% 3M +91.5% 1Y +359.4%
853 ETFs • 0 shares
🏛️ CONGRESSIONAL TRADES

Congressional trading activity shows members adding positions in Federal Signal Corporation (FSS), EMCOR Group (EME), and Infineon Technologies (IFNNY), while divesting from Verizon Communications (VZ) and Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG), with Rep. Kelly Louise Morrison executing two separate sales of AJG. The activity reflects a mixed approach with purchases spanning industrial manufacturing and semiconductor sectors, while sales concentrated in telecommunications and insurance brokerage.

Top Buying
FSS Federal Signal Corporation CONGRESS
+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -1.0% 3M -3.2% 1Y +39.5%
Rep. Gilbert Cisneros (Gilbert Cisneros) • $1,001 - $15,000
EME EMCOR Group, Inc. CONGRESS
+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +0.7% 3M +16.8% 1Y +87.8%
Rep. April Delaney (April Delaney) • $1,001 - $15,000
IFNNY Infineon Technologies AG CONGRESS
+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -2.9% 3M +7.9% 1Y +21.1%
Rep. Josh Gottheimer (Josh Gottheimer) • $1,001 - $15,000
NDAQ Nasdaq, Inc. CONGRESS
+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -1.0% 3M -7.6% 1Y +19.1%
Rep. April Delaney (April Delaney) • $1,001 - $15,000
MEDP Medpace Holdings, Inc. CONGRESS
+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -2.5% 3M -18.4% 1Y +40.1%
Rep. David Taylor (David Taylor) • $1,001 - $15,000
Top Selling
VZ Verizon Communications Inc. CONGRESS
- Selling Rising Stock 5D -0.4% 3M +23.6% 1Y +21.8%
Rep. Pete Sessions (Pete Sessions) • $1,001 - $15,000
AJG Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. CONGRESS
- Selling Falling Stock 5D -1.2% 3M -18.1% 1Y -35.2%
Rep. Kelly Louise Morrison (Kelly Louise Morrison) • $1,001 - $15,000
AJG Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. CONGRESS
- Selling Falling Stock 5D -1.2% 3M -18.1% 1Y -35.2%
Rep. Kelly Louise Morrison (Kelly Louise Morrison) • $15,001 - $50,000
AJG Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. CONGRESS
- Selling Falling Stock 5D -1.2% 3M -18.1% 1Y -35.2%
Rep. Kelly Louise Morrison (Kelly Louise Morrison) • $1,001 - $15,000
THR Thermon Group Holdings, Inc. CONGRESS
- Selling Falling Stock 5D +6.4% 3M +22.9% 1Y +67.1%
Rep. Gilbert Cisneros (Gilbert Cisneros) • $1,001 - $15,000
👔 INSIDER ACTIVITY

Multiple insiders at three companies executed purchase transactions this week, with SNDA showing the widest participation at 8 insiders, followed by REEMF at 6 insiders and SVRE at 2 insiders. On the distribution side, FANG led with 28 insiders selling $2.4B in shares, while NRG saw 5 insiders dispose of $5.3B and MDLN recorded 5 insiders selling $2.2B in holdings.

Cluster Buying
REEMF Rare Element Resources Ltd. INSIDER
+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +20.5% 3M -23.7% 1Y +1.4%
6 insiders • $2407160.2B
SVRE SaverOne 2014 Ltd INSIDER
+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +13.8% 3M +1.7% 1Y -93.5%
2 insiders • $919.0M
SNDA Sonida Senior Living, Inc. INSIDER
+ Buying Rising Stock 5D -2.4% 3M +17.0% 1Y +53.9%
8 insiders • $142.6M
CPNG Coupang, Inc. INSIDER
+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +8.4% 3M -18.9% 1Y -7.6%
3 insiders • $136.6M
ALKT Alkami Technology, Inc. INSIDER
+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -1.3% 3M -20.5% 1Y -29.9%
9 insiders • $119.6M
Heavy Selling
NRG NRG Energy, Inc. INSIDER
- Selling Falling Stock 5D -0.2% 3M -4.1% 1Y +63.8%
5 insiders • $5.3B
FANG Diamondback Energy, Inc. INSIDER
- Selling Rising Stock 5D +5.0% 3M +19.5% 1Y +27.3%
28 insiders • $2.4B
MDLN Medline Inc. INSIDER
- Selling Falling Stock 5D -1.7%
5 insiders • $2.2B
BTSG BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock INSIDER
- Selling Rising Stock 5D +1.8% 3M +15.2% 1Y +141.7%
5 insiders • $1.6B
SHC Sotera Health Company INSIDER
- Selling Falling Stock 5D -1.5% 3M -17.7% 1Y +19.5%
2 insiders • $381.8M
📅 EARNINGS CALENDAR

Today's earnings calendar features 352 reporting companies, with recent accumulation signals detected in 087010.KQ and 039030.KQ ahead of their reports. Yesterday's session saw significant declines in TME, which dropped 18.6%, alongside notable selling pressure in BOBS and ASO, down 18.5% and 16.8% respectively. Institutional distribution patterns have emerged in DSSA.JK and NKE.BA as 198 companies prepare to report tomorrow.

📊 Previous Earnings — March 17, 2026
338 reported • ✅ 33 beats❌ 31 misses
TME Tencent Music Entertainment Group MISS -18.6%
30
+ Buying Falling Stock
EPS: $0.03 vs $0.03 est (-7.9%)
BOBS Bob's Discount Furniture, Inc. MISS -18.5%
50
+ Buying Rising Stock
EPS: $0.29 vs $0.31 est (-5.3%)
ASO Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. MISS -16.8%
50
+ Buying Falling Stock
EPS: $1.98 vs $2.05 est (-3.4%)
ESLT Elbit Systems Ltd. BEAT +15.6%
70
+ Buying Rising Stock
EPS: $3.52 vs $2.82 est (+24.8%)
ESLT.TA Elbit Systems Ltd. BEAT +13.9%
70
+ Buying Rising Stock
EPS: $10.90 vs $8.99 est (+21.2%)
GDSN.MX GDS Holdings Limited BEAT -12.4%
50
+ Buying Rising Stock
EPS: $-0.26 vs $-0.54 est (+52.4%)
600309.SS Wanhua Chemical Group Co., Ltd. BEAT -9.1%
70
+ Buying Rising Stock
EPS: $1.07 vs $0.95 est (+13.0%)
8936.TWO Kuo Toong International Co., Ltd. MISS +7.7%
30
+ Buying Falling Stock
EPS: $1.13 vs $1.30 est (-13.1%)
MMK.VI Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG BEAT -7.0%
70
+ Buying Rising Stock
EPS: $-4.54 vs $-4.54 est (+0.1%)
2013.HK Weimob Inc. MET -6.6%
30
+ Buying Falling Stock
EPS: $0.01 vs $0.01 est
🎯 Reporting Today — March 18, 2026
352 reporting • Smart Money: 110 acc 157 dist 85 neut
087010.KQ Peptron, Inc.
70
+ Buying Rising Stock
EPS: $-200.72 vs $0.00 est
039030.KQ EO Technics Co., Ltd.
70
+ Buying Rising Stock
ROSN.ME PJSC Rosneft Oil Company
70
+ Buying Rising Stock
VAPORES.SN Compañía Sud Americana de Vapores S.A.
70
+ Buying Rising Stock
218410.KQ RFHIC Corporation
70
+ Buying Rising Stock
032190.KQ Daou Data Corp.
70
+ Buying Rising Stock
EPS: $92494.42 vs $0.00 est
014620.KQ Sung Kwang Bend Co.,Ltd.
70
+ Buying Rising Stock
MU Micron Technology, Inc.
70
+ Buying Rising Stock
230360.KQ Echomarketing Co.,Ltd.
70
+ Buying Rising Stock
MTE.DE Micron Technology, Inc.
70
+ Buying Rising Stock
060720.KQ KHVATEC Co.,Ltd.
70
+ Buying Rising Stock
265520.KQ Advanced Process Systems Corporation
70
+ Buying Rising Stock
002714.SZ Muyuan Foods Co., Ltd.
70
+ Buying Rising Stock
005680.KS Samyoung Electronics Co., Ltd
70
+ Buying Rising Stock
0175.HK Geely Automobile Holdings Limited
70
+ Buying Rising Stock
📌 Next Earnings — March 19, 2026
198 reporting • Smart Money: 69 acc 82 dist 47 neut
ELSA.JK PT Elnusa Tbk
70
+ Buying Rising Stock
VAPORES.SN Compañía Sud Americana de Vapores S.A.
70
+ Buying Rising Stock
081660.KS Misto Holdings Corp.
70
+ Buying Rising Stock
319660.KQ PSK Inc.
70
+ Buying Rising Stock
KKGI.JK PT Resource Alam Indonesia Tbk
70
+ Buying Rising Stock
082270.KQ GemVax&KAEL Co.,Ltd
70
+ Buying Rising Stock
601088.SS China Shenhua Energy Company Limited
70
+ Buying Rising Stock
1088.HK China Shenhua Energy Company Limited
70
+ Buying Rising Stock
601899.SS Zijin Mining Group Company Limited
70
+ Buying Rising Stock
600028.SS China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation
70
+ Buying Rising Stock
📝 Today's Summary

Smart money flows reveal a coordinated narrative of institutional caution and selective positioning across multiple participant classes. Exchange-traded funds demonstrated split conviction on mega-cap technology, with 1,589 ETFs adding Microsoft positions while 1,004 reduced them, and similarly divided action on Broadcom as 1,528 ETFs increased exposure against 1,087 decreasing it. Corporate insiders at FANG executed the most significant distribution event with 28 insiders selling $2.4 billion in shares, while NRG saw 5 insiders dispose of $5.3 billion and MDLN recorded 5 insiders selling $2.2 billion in holdings. Congressional activity shows members adding positions in Federal Signal Corporation (FSS), EMCOR Group (EME), and Infineon Technologies (IFNNY) while divesting from Verizon Communications (VZ) and Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG), with Rep. Kelly Louise Morrison executing two separate sales of AJG. The institutional repositioning in memory chip maker Micron, which saw net inflows across 1,478 ETFs, contrasts sharply with payment processor Visa experiencing net outflows from 956 funds. Markets are underperforming the typical presidential cycle script, with both SPY and QQQ running about 2.8% below where they historically sit 55 trading days into Year 2 of a second term, as SPY trades down 1.8% year-to-date versus the historical Year 2 average gain of around 3.5% for the full year. The VIX declined 7.8% week-over-week to 23.51 but remains elevated, while the MOVE index measuring bond market volatility rose 2.5% to 14.83 at historically low levels, creating a divergence where equity traders price in notably more uncertainty than their bond market counterparts. Market breadth remains narrow with only a third of SPY and QQQ constituents trading above their moving averages, while defensive sectors like Energy and Utilities show the strongest technical performance at 90% or more of their components in uptrends. The concentration in defensive areas alongside weak cyclical participation characterizes a risk-off environment, with Semiconductors and Consumer Discretionary showing participation rates below 21% and transportation stocks particularly weak at just 9% breadth. The Federal Reserve rate decision today provides the critical near-term catalyst, with markets expecting a hold at 3.75% but real volatility likely emerging from Chair Powell's press conference and updated economic projections. Pending home sales rebounded sharply in February with a 1.8% monthly gain against expectations of a negative 0.5% decline, suggesting housing demand stabilized after January's drop, though crude oil inventories surged by 6.6 million barrels versus forecasts for a 0.6 million drawdown, a 7.2 million barrel miss that could pressure energy prices. Tomorrow's jobless claims estimated at 215,000 and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index forecast to cool from 16.3 to 10.0 will test whether the recent uptick in the Economic Surprise

Key themes: Watch convergence signals closely. Stocks where insiders, institutions, and politicians agree tend to show stronger directional moves.