The Edge

🐷 PIG ROAST

💬 Word on the Street

The VIX just dropped 11.8% to 24.1 while Rep. Cleo Fields (D-LA) quietly picked up Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) shares worth up to $15,000—and that's the *calm* part of today's action. After hours, Planet Labs PBC (PL) rocketed 25.5% to $33.83 as Wall Street finally noticed its $900 million backlog, SolarEdge Technologies Inc. (SEDG) blasted to a fresh 1-year high at $51.69 on analyst upgrades, and insiders at Wheeler Real Estate Investment Trust Inc. (WHLR) dumped a staggering $31.5 billion in what might be one of the largest insider sell-offs we've tracked. Here's what smart money is doing today.

The Big Idea: When insiders, institutions, AND politicians all bet on the same stock? That's convergence — and historically, these aligned signals tend to pack more punch than solo moves. We track the smart money so you don't have to.

ETF Institutional funds adding/removing positions
INSIDER Corporate executives buying/selling their own stock
CONGRESS Politicians making trades (yes, we see you)

▲ + Buying Rising Stock: Smart money accumulating as price rises — ideal alignment
+ Buying Falling Stock: Smart money accumulating while price drops — falling knife risk
▲ - Selling Rising Stock: Smart money exiting while price still rising — warning signal
- Selling Falling Stock: Smart money exiting as price drops — confirms downtrend

The Bottom Line: Convergence + aligned momentum = strongest setups. Convergence + divergent momentum = proceed with caution. This isn't financial advice — it's intelligence. What you do with it is on you.

📚 Jargon Buster

Disinflation

Prices still rising, but slower. Like the hookers raised prices last year but only a little this year.

The VIX stands at 24.06, remaining in elevated territory despite dropping 11.8% over the past week, suggesting equity market fear has moderated but hasn't returned to normal levels. Meanwhile, the MOVE index rose 5.8% to 14.01, which remains historically low and indicates bond market participants are pricing in minimal interest rate volatility. This divergence shows equity investors maintaining heightened caution while fixed income markets reflect relative calm about the path of rates.

|| Market Sutra ||

"Mispriced risk is more dangerous than visible risk."

— 2008 mortgage bonds were AAA-rated but structurally toxic

Market breadth remains narrow across major indices, with roughly one-third of SPY and QQQ components advancing while IYT shows particularly weak participation at just 9%. A clear defensive rotation has emerged, as Energy and Utilities lead with over 90% of their constituents advancing, contrasting sharply with growth-sensitive areas where Consumer Discretionary, Semiconductors, and Financials are seeing participation rates below 21%. This divergence between defensive sector strength and cyclical weakness typically characterizes periods when market participants are repositioning for slower economic conditions.

As of March 18, the Fed's net liquidity stands at $6.66 trillion, up $9.6 billion from the prior week, indicating a modest expansion in system liquidity that historically correlates with supportive conditions for risk assets. The next H.4.1 report releases Thursday, March 26, which will show whether this liquidity injection trend continues or reverses.

Yesterday's CFTC positioning data showed speculators trimmed exposure across most asset classes, with crude oil net longs declining from 228.0K to 218.7K contracts and gold positions slipping from 163.1K to 159.9K, while S&P 500 net shorts narrowed modestly from -134.5K to -113.1K, suggesting some tactical covering as equities stabilized. Today's focus turns to the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow update, which has held steady at 2.3% for Q1, and the Chicago Fed Activity Index for February, expected to rise to 0.27 from 0.18. Tomorrow brings the critical March PMI flash readings where consensus anticipates notable softening—the composite index is forecast to drop to 50.5 from 51.9, manufacturing to 50.2 from 51.6, and services to 50.4 from 51.7—which would mark a sharp deceleration in private sector activity and potentially signal contraction if the 50-level threshold is breached.

Exchange-traded funds showed mixed positioning in technology during the latest reporting period, with 2,341 ETFs adding Microsoft positions while 1,700 reduced them, and similar split activity in Broadcom (2,132 adding vs 1,598 removing). The flow data indicates institutional repositioning within mega-cap tech and semiconductors, as Micron attracted 2,224 ETFs adding exposure while payment processor Visa saw 1,563 ETFs trimming positions.

MSFT Microsoft Corporation ⭐

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -3.5% 3M -19.8% 1Y -1.0%

2341 ETFs • 0 shares

MU Micron Technology, Inc. ⭐

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D -0.7% 3M +87.6% 1Y +315.6%

2224 ETFs • 0 shares

AVGO Broadcom Inc. ⭐

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -3.6% 3M -4.6% 1Y +59.9%

2132 ETFs • 0 shares

JNJ Johnson & Johnson ⭐

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D -2.4% 3M +12.0% 1Y +47.8%

1945 ETFs • 0 shares

IBM International Business Machines Corporation ⭐

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -0.8% 3M -19.4% 1Y -1.3%

1881 ETFs • 0 shares

MSFT Microsoft Corporation ⭐

- Selling Falling Stock 5D -3.5% 3M -19.8% 1Y -1.0%

1700 ETFs • 0 shares

AVGO Broadcom Inc. ⭐

- Selling Falling Stock 5D -3.6% 3M -4.6% 1Y +59.9%

1598 ETFs • 0 shares

V Visa Inc. ⭐

- Selling Falling Stock 5D -1.8% 3M -12.4% 1Y -10.8%

1563 ETFs • 0 shares

MU Micron Technology, Inc. ⭐

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -0.7% 3M +87.6% 1Y +315.6%

1481 ETFs • 0 shares

CRM Salesforce, Inc. ⭐

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +1.3% 3M -24.2% 1Y -29.6%

1429 ETFs • 0 shares

Rep. Cleo Fields executed three separate purchases of Microsoft (MSFT) shares, while Rep. Pete Sessions sold Verizon (VZ) and Rep. Kelly Louise Morrison made two sales of Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG). The trading activity shows concentrated buying in big tech and selling in telecommunications and insurance brokerage sectors by these members of Congress.

MSFT Microsoft Corporation ⭐ CONGRESS

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -3.5% 3M -19.8% 1Y -1.0%

Rep. Cleo Fields (Cleo Fields) • $1,001 - $15,000

MSFT Microsoft Corporation ⭐ CONGRESS

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -3.5% 3M -19.8% 1Y -1.0%

Rep. Cleo Fields (Cleo Fields) • $1,001 - $15,000

MSFT Microsoft Corporation ⭐ CONGRESS

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -3.5% 3M -19.8% 1Y -1.0%

Rep. Cleo Fields (Cleo Fields) • $1,001 - $15,000

FSS Federal Signal Corporation ⭐ CONGRESS

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +0.3% 3M -3.5% 1Y +36.3%

Rep. Gilbert Cisneros (Gilbert Cisneros) • $1,001 - $15,000

NDAQ Nasdaq, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +1.3% 3M -7.9% 1Y +13.8%

Rep. April Delaney (April Delaney) • $1,001 - $15,000

VZ Verizon Communications Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -2.7% 3M +22.3% 1Y +19.5%

Rep. Pete Sessions (Pete Sessions) • $1,001 - $15,000

AJG Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. ⭐ CONGRESS

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +3.4% 3M -14.3% 1Y -33.8%

Rep. Kelly Louise Morrison (Kelly Louise Morrison) • $1,001 - $15,000

AJG Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. ⭐ CONGRESS

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +3.4% 3M -14.3% 1Y -33.8%

Rep. Kelly Louise Morrison (Kelly Louise Morrison) • $1,001 - $15,000

AJG Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. ⭐ CONGRESS

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +3.4% 3M -14.3% 1Y -33.8%

Rep. Kelly Louise Morrison (Kelly Louise Morrison) • $15,001 - $50,000

THR Thermon Group Holdings, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +0.8% 3M +25.6% 1Y +56.8%

Rep. Gilbert Cisneros (Gilbert Cisneros) • $1,001 - $15,000

Recent insider activity shows concentrated selling at FANG with 21 insiders reducing positions totaling $2.2B, MDLN with 5 insiders selling $2.2B, and WHLR with 3 insiders divesting $31.5B. On the purchasing side, SNDA recorded 8 insiders adding positions, while SVRE and CPNG each saw 2-3 insiders acquiring shares.

SVRE SaverOne 2014 Ltd ⭐ INSIDER

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +0.0% 3M +46.5% 1Y -93.4%

2 insiders • $919.0M

SNDA Sonida Senior Living, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D -9.4% 3M +1.9% 1Y +33.4%

8 insiders • $142.6M

CPNG Coupang, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +2.1% 3M -17.1% 1Y -20.0%

3 insiders • $136.6M

ALKT Alkami Technology, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -6.6% 3M -24.6% 1Y -35.6%

9 insiders • $119.6M

LIN Linde plc ⭐ INSIDER

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D -1.2% 3M +15.6% 1Y +7.2%

9 insiders • $75.2M

WHLR Wheeler Real Estate Investment Trust, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

- Selling Falling Stock 5D -27.9% 3M -60.0% 1Y -99.8%

3 insiders • $31535.8B

MDLN Medline Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +3.1% 3M +4.2%

5 insiders • $2.2B

FANG Diamondback Energy, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +5.6% 3M +25.0% 1Y +24.8%

21 insiders • $2.2B

WMT Walmart Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -5.9% 3M +2.9% 1Y +39.2%

7 insiders • $346.5M

CRC California Resources Corporation ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +3.4% 3M +39.7% 1Y +45.4%

3 insiders • $216.9M

Yesterday's session saw sharp declines in BC8.DE, ZHAOF, and SMGKF, dropping 18.2%, 17.5%, and 14.8% respectively. Today, 198 companies report earnings, with TCPI.JK and VAPORES.SN showing accumulation patterns while TLKM.JK and MIKA.JK exhibit distribution signals ahead of their reports. No companies are scheduled to report tomorrow.

📊 Previous Earnings — March 20, 2026

204 reported • ✅ 18 beats • ❌ 33 misses

BC8.DE Bechtle AG ⭐ MISS -18.2%

30

+ Buying Falling Stock

EPS: $0.68 vs $0.69 est (-1.5%)

ZHAOF Zhaojin Mining Industry Company Limited ⭐ BEAT -17.5%

50

+ Buying Falling Stock

EPS: $0.09 vs $0.09 est (+0.2%)

SMGKF Smiths Group plc ⭐ MISS -14.8%

50

+ Buying Falling Stock

EPS: $0.55 vs $0.80 est (-30.9%)

ZIJMF Zijin Mining Group Company Limited ⭐ MISS -14.1%

30

+ Buying Falling Stock

EPS: $0.07 vs $0.07 est (-0.4%)

1378.HK China Hongqiao Group Limited ⭐ BEAT -12.7%

50

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

EPS: $1.81 vs $1.80 est (+0.6%)

LNXSF Lanxess AG ⭐ BEAT -12.4%

50

+ Buying Falling Stock

EPS: $0.43 vs $-0.31 est (+239.9%)

XPEV XPeng Inc. ⭐ BEAT -12.1%

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

EPS: $0.06 vs $0.00 est (+4185.7%)

XPNGF XPeng Inc. ⭐ BEAT +11.7%

50

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

EPS: $0.03 vs $0.00 est (+3387.5%)

601899.SS Zijin Mining Group Company Limited ⭐ MISS -11.5%

50

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

EPS: $0.50 vs $0.51 est (-2.0%)

VNA.F Vonovia SE ⭐ MISS -10.8%

30

+ Buying Falling Stock

EPS: $0.43 vs $0.43 est (-0.6%)

🎯 Reporting Today — March 23, 2026

198 reporting • Smart Money: 31 acc • 55 dist • 112 neut

TCPI.JK PT Transcoal Pacific Tbk ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

VAPORES.SN Compañía Sud Americana de Vapores S.A. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

TGA.JO Thungela Resources Limited ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

GOLL54.SA Gol Linhas Aéreas Inteligentes S.A. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

CRHKF China Resources Beer (Holdings) Company Limited ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

EPS: $0.00 vs $0.00 est

KLYCY Kunlun Energy Company Limited ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

DIMRI.TA Y.H. Dimri Construction & Development Ltd ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

AAVXF Abivax S.A. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

CIG Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

GGDVY Guangdong Investment Limited ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

KGBLY Kingboard Laminates Holdings Limited ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

EPS: $1.54 vs $0.00 est

JTKWY Just Eat Takeaway.com N.V. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

MOH.AT Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries S.A. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

SPG.CO SP Group A/S ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

IRDEY Iren S.p.A. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

Smart money flows reveal a complex repositioning across investor classes as participants navigate uncertain terrain. Corporate insiders executed significant selling at Diamondback Energy (FANG) with 21 insiders reducing positions totaling $2.2 billion, Medallion Financial (MFIN) with 5 insiders selling $2.2 billion, and Wheeler Real Estate Investment Trust (WHLR) with 3 insiders divesting $31.5 billion, signaling caution from those closest to operational performance. Institutional positioning through exchange-traded funds shows a split personality in technology, with 2,341 ETFs adding Microsoft (MSFT) positions while 1,700 reduced them, and similar bifurcated activity in Broadcom where 2,132 ETFs added exposure versus 1,598 removing it. Congressional activity mirrored some institutional preference, as Rep. Cleo Fields executed three separate purchases of Microsoft shares, while Rep. Pete Sessions sold Verizon (VZ) and Rep. Kelly Louise Morrison made two sales of Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG). The semiconductor space saw concentrated institutional interest with 2,224 ETFs adding Micron Technology positions, while payment processor Visa experienced trimming from 1,563 ETFs. Market structure reflects a defensive recalibration as breadth narrows sharply and volatility signals diverge. The VIX stands at 24.06, having dropped 11.8% over the past week yet remaining in elevated territory that suggests equity market participants maintain heightened caution despite recent stabilization. Bond markets tell a contrasting story with the MOVE index rising 5.8% to 14.01, a historically low reading that indicates fixed income participants are pricing minimal interest rate volatility ahead. This divergence between equity fear and bond market complacency creates an unusual backdrop for sector rotation that heavily favors defensives. Energy and Utilities sectors show over 90% of constituents advancing, while growth-sensitive areas struggle with Consumer Discretionary, Semiconductors, and Financials posting participation rates below 21%. Broader market breadth remains constricted with roughly one-third of SPY and QQQ components advancing, and the transportation sector particularly weak at just 9% participation. CFTC positioning data revealed speculators trimming exposure across commodities, with crude oil net longs declining from 228,000 to 218,700 contracts and gold positions slipping from 163,100 to 159,900, while S&P 500 net shorts narrowed modestly from negative 134,500 to negative 113,100 contracts. Tomorrow's March PMI flash readings represent a critical inflection point that could either validate or challenge the current defensive posture. Consensus forecasts anticipate notable softening with the composite index expected to drop to 50.5 from 51.9, manufacturing to 50.2 from 51.6, and services to 50.4 from 51.7—marking a sharp deceleration in private sector activity that would bring key metrics dangerously close to the 50-level contraction threshold. Today's Atlanta Fed GDPNow

Key themes: Watch convergence signals closely. Stocks where insiders, institutions, and politicians agree tend to show stronger directional moves.