The Edge

🐷 PIG ROAST

💬 Word on the Street

While Rep. Tim Moore (R-NC) quietly scooped up Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) shares worth $15,001 to $50,000, smart money dumped a staggering $31.4 trillion—yes, trillion—with Wheeler Real Estate Investment Trust (WHLR) insiders alone unloading $31.4 trillion as fear spiked the VIX 14.1% to 27.4. After hours brought the chaos: Argan (AGX) rocketed 37.9% to $566 on monster earnings, Unity Software (U) surged 13.5% to $19.45 on preliminary results despite being down 56% year-to-date, and fraud-plagued ADMA Biologics (ADMA) bounced 11.6% to $9.25 even as investigators circle. Here's what smart money is doing today.

The Big Idea: When insiders, institutions, AND politicians all bet on the same stock? That's convergence — and historically, these aligned signals tend to pack more punch than solo moves. We track the smart money so you don't have to.

ETF Institutional funds adding/removing positions
INSIDER Corporate executives buying/selling their own stock
CONGRESS Politicians making trades (yes, we see you)

▲ + Buying Rising Stock: Smart money accumulating as price rises — ideal alignment
+ Buying Falling Stock: Smart money accumulating while price drops — falling knife risk
▲ - Selling Rising Stock: Smart money exiting while price still rising — warning signal
- Selling Falling Stock: Smart money exiting as price drops — confirms downtrend

The Bottom Line: Convergence + aligned momentum = strongest setups. Convergence + divergent momentum = proceed with caution. This isn't financial advice — it's intelligence. What you do with it is on you.

📚 Jargon Buster

NFP

Non-Farm Payrolls. The first Friday monthly jobs number that makes traders crap their pants at 8:30 a.m. sharp.

Equity market volatility surged into high fear territory this week, with the VIX climbing 14.1% to 27.44, signaling heightened investor concern about stock price swings in the near term. In contrast, bond market volatility remains subdued, as the MOVE index rose 32.8% but sits at just 18.61, well below historical stress levels. This divergence suggests fear is concentrated in equities while fixed income markets are pricing in relatively stable interest rate expectations.

|| Market Sutra ||

"In markets, survival is alpha."

— Trend followers who survived the 1970s stagflation dominated the next decade

The current market regime shows defensive rotation with Energy and Utilities capturing the majority of institutional flows at 100% and 68% respectively, while cyclical sectors including Real Estate, Industrials, and Financials lag significantly below 10%. However, narrow market breadth across major indices tells a concerning story, with only 20% of SPY components participating in recent moves and even weaker breadth in QQQ and DIA at 18% and 17%. This combination of defensive sector leadership and weak underlying participation suggests institutions are concentrating capital in a limited number of names rather than broad-based risk-taking.

As of March 25, Fed net liquidity stood at $6.66 trillion, up $1.2 billion from the prior week, with the next H.4.1 release scheduled for Thursday, April 02. This modest weekly increase reflects relatively stable liquidity conditions, which historically correlate with sustained market support when liquidity expands and potential headwinds when it contracts.

Michigan Consumer Sentiment tumbled to 53.3, missing the 54.0 estimate and marking a sharp decline from February's 56.6, while the more concerning development was inflation expectations surging to 3.8% from 3.4%—a 40 basis point miss that reflects consumers' growing concern about price pressures despite the Fed's two-year tightening campaign. Meanwhile, CFTC positioning data showed speculative shorts on the S&P 500 decreased to -80.9K from -113.1K, indicating some bearish capitulation, while Nasdaq 100 net longs fell to 6.6K from 24.1K as traders reduced exposure to growth-heavy positions. With Fed Chair Powell speaking today alongside two other central bank officials and the critical CB Consumer Confidence data tomorrow (estimated at 88.0 versus 91.2 prior), markets will be parsing any reaction to Friday's sticky inflation expectations print and whether the Fed sees today's sentiment deterioration as warranting concern about the consumer spending outlook that has kept the economy resilient.

Institutional flow data shows balanced activity with 10 ETFs adding and 10 removing positions, though notable concentration appears in healthcare and technology names—JNJ led additions with 2,486 ETFs taking positions while simultaneously seeing 1,834 ETFs reduce exposure, suggesting potential rotation within the sector. Cybersecurity exposure increased via PANW additions (2,477 ETFs) while legacy tech names NFLX and CSCO saw meaningful position reductions (1,819 and 1,711 ETFs respectively), indicating a possible shift toward newer enterprise security plays from consumer streaming and established networking infrastructure.

JNJ Johnson & Johnson ⭐

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +2.1% 3M +15.7% 1Y +52.0%

2486 ETFs • 0 shares

PANW Palo Alto Networks, Inc. ⭐

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -9.8% 3M -21.5% 1Y -20.5%

2477 ETFs • 0 shares

IBM International Business Machines Corporation ⭐

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -2.2% 3M -22.4% 1Y -3.8%

2385 ETFs • 0 shares

NFLX Netflix, Inc. ⭐

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +1.8% 3M -0.2% 1Y -3.8%

2278 ETFs • 0 shares

HD The Home Depot, Inc. ⭐

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +0.3% 3M -7.4% 1Y -9.5%

2198 ETFs • 0 shares

JNJ Johnson & Johnson ⭐

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +2.1% 3M +15.7% 1Y +52.0%

1834 ETFs • 0 shares

NFLX Netflix, Inc. ⭐

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +1.8% 3M -0.2% 1Y -3.8%

1819 ETFs • 0 shares

CSCO Cisco Systems, Inc. ⭐

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +2.9% 3M +3.0% 1Y +31.8%

1711 ETFs • 0 shares

HD The Home Depot, Inc. ⭐

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +0.3% 3M -7.4% 1Y -9.5%

1658 ETFs • 0 shares

WMT Walmart Inc. ⭐

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +3.2% 3M +10.1% 1Y +45.2%

1583 ETFs • 0 shares

Rep. Tim Moore made multiple purchases in LGIH (two separate transactions) along with acquiring CBRL, while also selling DNUT. Rep. Warren Davidson sold GEHC and Rep. David Taylor sold CVX, showing mixed activity with Moore being the most active trader this period with concentrated buying in homebuilder LGIH.

CBRL Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -2.4% 3M +1.2% 1Y -31.8%

Rep. Tim Moore (Tim Moore) • $15,001 - $50,000

LGIH LGI Homes, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +10.2% 3M -12.2% 1Y -45.9%

Rep. Tim Moore (Tim Moore) • $15,001 - $50,000

LGIH LGI Homes, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +10.2% 3M -12.2% 1Y -45.9%

Rep. Tim Moore (Tim Moore) • $50,001 - $100,000

LGIH LGI Homes, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +10.2% 3M -12.2% 1Y -45.9%

Rep. Tim Moore (Tim Moore) • $15,001 - $50,000

MSFT Microsoft Corporation ⭐ CONGRESS

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -6.6% 3M -26.9% 1Y -8.0%

Rep. Cleo Fields (Cleo Fields) • $1,001 - $15,000

GEHC GE HealthCare Technologies Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

- Selling Falling Stock 5D -0.6% 3M -17.0% 1Y -14.4%

Rep. Warren Davidson (Warren Davidson) • $1,001 - $15,000

DNUT Krispy Kreme, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -7.5% 3M -23.8% 1Y -40.0%

Rep. Tim Moore (Tim Moore) • $15,001 - $50,000

CVX Chevron Corporation ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +4.7% 3M +40.3% 1Y +30.1%

Rep. David Taylor (David Taylor) • $1,001 - $15,000

MPC Marathon Petroleum Corporation ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +8.3% 3M +52.0% 1Y +70.9%

Rep. David Taylor (David Taylor) • $1,001 - $15,000

META recorded cluster activity with 42 insiders receiving stock awards, while CRM saw 8 insiders add positions through similar compensation-based transactions. On the distribution side, DELL reported the largest cluster with 196 insiders selling approximately $430 million in shares, followed by GRDN with 10 insiders reducing positions totaling $419.3 million.

META Meta Platforms, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -11.4% 3M -21.2% 1Y -13.8%

42 insiders • $8.4B

CRM Salesforce, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -8.2% 3M -32.4% 1Y -35.8%

8 insiders • $132.9M

NONE NONE ⭐ INSIDER

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

2 insiders • $75.0M

MGM MGM Resorts International ⭐ INSIDER

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +2.7% 3M -2.0% 1Y +13.1%

2 insiders • $37.2M

HD The Home Depot, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +0.3% 3M -7.4% 1Y -9.5%

11 insiders • $34.3M

WHLR Wheeler Real Estate Investment Trust, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

- Selling Falling Stock 5D -2.8% 3M -48.0% 1Y -99.6%

3 insiders • $31449.6B

DELL Dell Technologies Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +9.0% 3M +33.9% 1Y +81.0%

196 insiders • $430.0M

GRDN Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -4.2% 3M +10.6% 1Y +68.7%

10 insiders • $419.3M

WMT Walmart Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +3.2% 3M +10.1% 1Y +45.2%

6 insiders • $407.2M

AVGO Broadcom Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

- Selling Falling Stock 5D -3.0% 3M -14.2% 1Y +68.4%

16 insiders • $250.0M

Today's earnings calendar includes 312 reporting companies, with accumulation signals observed in PTBA.JK and 3988.HK ahead of their results, while distribution patterns emerged in TLKM.JK and BRPT.JK. Yesterday's session saw significant price movement led by 601869.SS surging 26.5%, contrasting with notable declines in AIRYY down 23.0% and NWWCF falling 18.8%. Smart money positioning shows contrasting flows into and out of these reporting companies as institutional participants adjust positions ahead of earnings releases.

📊 Previous Earnings — March 27, 2026

427 reported • ✅ 39 beats • ❌ 50 misses

601869.SS Yangtze Optical Fibre And Cable Joint Stock Limited Company ⭐ MISS +26.5%

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

EPS: $0.48 vs $0.50 est (-4.1%)

AIRYY Air China Limited ⭐ MISS -23.0%

50

+ Buying Falling Stock

EPS: $-0.61 vs $0.09 est (-806.0%)

NWWCF New China Life Insurance Company Ltd. ⭐ MET -18.8%

30

+ Buying Falling Stock

EPS: $0.98 vs $0.98 est

9696.HK Tianqi Lithium Corporation ⭐ MET +18.0%

30

+ Buying Falling Stock

EPS: $0.28 vs $0.28 est

ALMMF Aluminum Corporation of China Limited ⭐ MET -15.7%

30

+ Buying Falling Stock

EPS: $0.07 vs $0.07 est

002466.SZ Tianqi Lithium Corporation ⭐ MET +15.7%

50

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

EPS: $0.25 vs $0.25 est

TMC TMC the metals company Inc. ⭐ MISS -15.1%

30

+ Buying Falling Stock

EPS: $-0.08 vs $-0.06 est (-33.3%)

600563.SS Xiamen Faratronic Co., Ltd. ⭐ MISS +14.5%

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

EPS: $1.35 vs $1.64 est (-17.7%)

BYDIF BYD Electronic (International) Company Limited ⭐ BEAT -14.2%

50

+ Buying Falling Stock

EPS: $0.19 vs $0.17 est (+9.6%)

3319.HK A-Living Smart City Services Co., Ltd. ⭐ MET -14.1%

30

+ Buying Falling Stock

EPS: $0.27 vs $0.27 est

🎯 Reporting Today — March 30, 2026

312 reporting • Smart Money: 49 acc • 195 dist • 68 neut

PTBA.JK PT Bukit Asam Tbk ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

3988.HK Bank of China Limited ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

601088.SS China Shenhua Energy Company Limited ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

910322.TW Tingyi (Cayman Islands) Holding Corp. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

BOCN.VI Bank of China Limited ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

BACHY Bank of China Limited ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

1772.HK Ganfeng Lithium Co., Limited ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

BACHF Bank of China Limited ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

002460.SZ Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

BYDDY BYD Company Limited ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

EPS: $0.18 vs $0.17 est

601916.SS China Zheshang Bank Co., Ltd ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

600642.SS Shenergy Company Limited ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

1585.HK Yadea Group Holdings Ltd. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

6083.T ERI Holdings Co., Ltd. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

CNICF China International Capital Corporation Limited ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

Smart money positioning reveals divergent signals across different participant classes as institutional capital shows selective rotation while insider activity clusters around mega-cap technology names. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) captured attention with 2,486 ETFs adding positions even as 1,834 reduced exposure, suggesting internal sector rotation rather than directional conviction. Technology showed a clear preference shift as institutions piled into Palo Alto Networks (PANW) with 2,477 ETF additions while simultaneously exiting Netflix (NFLX) and Cisco Systems (CSCO) with 1,819 and 1,711 ETF reductions respectively, indicating a pivot toward enterprise cybersecurity away from consumer streaming and legacy networking infrastructure. Insider activity painted a stark contrast as Meta Platforms (META) saw 42 insiders receive stock awards and Salesforce (CRM) recorded 8 insider additions, while Dell Technologies (DELL) experienced the session's largest distribution with 196 insiders selling approximately 430 million dollars in shares followed by Garden (GRDN) with 10 insiders offloading 419.3 million dollars. Congressional activity remained modest with Rep. Tim Moore making multiple purchases in LGI Homes (LGIH) through two separate transactions along with acquiring Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) while selling Krispy Kreme (DNUT), Rep. Warren Davidson selling GE HealthCare Technologies (GEHC), and Rep. David Taylor selling Chevron (CVX). Market structure signals heightened stress as equity volatility surged into high fear territory with the VIX climbing 14.1 percent to 27.44 while bond market volatility measured by the MOVE index rose 32.8 percent to just 18.61, creating a divergence that suggests fear remains concentrated in equities rather than fixed income as interest rate expectations hold relatively stable. Sector rotation turned distinctly defensive with Energy and Utilities capturing 100 percent and 68 percent of institutional flows respectively while cyclical sectors including Real Estate, Industrials, and Financials lagged significantly below 10 percent participation. The concerning element beneath this defensive positioning is market breadth deterioration across major indices, with only 20 percent of SPY components participating in recent moves and even weaker breadth in QQQ and DIA at 18 percent and 17 percent respectively, indicating institutions are concentrating capital in a limited number of names rather than broad-based risk deployment. SPY strength registers at just 20.5 percent while accumulation signals reached 30 instances led by Netflix (NFLX), ServiceNow (NOW), and C-PN with zero distribution signals recorded. The critical catalyst convergence arrives as Michigan Consumer Sentiment collapsed to 53.3 from 56.6 against estimates of 54.0, but the more troubling development was inflation expectations surging to 3.8 percent from 3.4 percent—a 40 basis point miss that challenges the narrative of cooling price pressures two years into the Federal Reserve's tightening campaign. Fed Chair Powell speaks today alongside two other central bank officials with markets parsing any reaction to Friday's sticky inflation expectations print,

Key themes: Watch convergence signals closely. Stocks where insiders, institutions, and politicians agree tend to show stronger directional moves.