The Edge

🐷 PIG ROAST

💬 Word on the Street

While Rep. Tim Moore purchased Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) shares worth up to $50,000, insiders at Garde Capital (GRDN) stampeded for the exits with $419.3 million in sales—and that's before the real fireworks started after hours. Nvidia's (NVDA) new Vera Rubin platform sent Micron Technology (MU) rocketing 8.9% higher while Intel (INTC) and Lumentum Holdings (LITE) both surged 8.8% on AI infrastructure bets, all as the VIX spiked 17.1% and institutions poured $6.6 billion net into equities. Here's what smart money is doing today.

The Big Idea: When insiders, institutions, AND politicians all bet on the same stock? That's convergence — and historically, these aligned signals tend to pack more punch than solo moves. We track the smart money so you don't have to.

ETF Institutional funds adding/removing positions
INSIDER Corporate executives buying/selling their own stock
CONGRESS Politicians making trades (yes, we see you)

▲ + Buying Rising Stock: Smart money accumulating as price rises — ideal alignment
+ Buying Falling Stock: Smart money accumulating while price drops — falling knife risk
▲ - Selling Rising Stock: Smart money exiting while price still rising — warning signal
- Selling Falling Stock: Smart money exiting as price drops — confirms downtrend

The Bottom Line: Convergence + aligned momentum = strongest setups. Convergence + divergent momentum = proceed with caution. This isn't financial advice — it's intelligence. What you do with it is on you.

📚 Jargon Buster

Average Hourly Earnings

How fast paychecks are growing. If wages > inflation, workers win. If not, welcome to serfdom.

Equity market volatility signals heightened investor anxiety, with the VIX climbing 17.1% over the past week to reach 30.61, a level indicating elevated fear and uncertainty in stock markets. In contrast, bond market volatility as measured by the MOVE index declined 19.3% to 11.58, suggesting relative calm in fixed income markets. This divergence between equity and bond volatility presents an unusual market environment where stock investors are pricing in significant turbulence while Treasury markets remain subdued.

|| Market Sutra ||

"The deeper the denial, the harsher the reckoning."

— China Evergrande investors ignored debt risks for a decade

The current market regime shows defensive positioning with Energy leading at 100% breadth followed by Utilities at 68%, while cyclical sectors like Financials, Industrials, and Real Estate register near-zero participation. Major indices display uniformly weak breadth, with SPY at 20%, QQQ at 18%, and DIA at 17%, indicating a narrow market where only select sectors are advancing. This configuration reflects a flight to defensive and commodity-linked sectors amid broad weakness across growth and economically-sensitive areas.

As of March 25, Fed net liquidity stands at $6.66 trillion, up $1.2 billion from the prior week, indicating a modest expansion in system-wide liquidity that historically correlates with supportive conditions for risk assets. The next H.4.1 data release drops Thursday, April 2, which will show whether this gradual liquidity increase continues or reverses.

Yesterday's data painted a picture of resilient consumer spending despite elevated borrowing costs, with retail sales rising 0.5% versus 0.3% expected while mortgage rates climbed to 6.57% from 6.43% the prior week. The strength in consumer activity stands in stark contrast to softer labor indicators, as ADP's 62K private payroll gain and manufacturing employment holding below the 50 breakeven threshold at 48.7 suggest underlying weakness in hiring trends—a divergence that typically precedes broader economic slowdowns. Today's focus shifts to initial jobless claims (estimated at 212K) and the trade balance, followed by tomorrow's critical nonfarm payrolls report where economists expect just 60K jobs added after February's striking -92K decline, which would mark the weakest three-month stretch since the pandemic if realized.

Exchange-traded funds displayed mixed positioning across industrial and consumer sectors, with 1,522 ETFs adding Deere & Company (DE) exposure while 1,109 simultaneously reduced it, suggesting rotation within agricultural and machinery holdings rather than directional conviction. Monster Beverage (MNST) saw similar two-way flows with 1,519 ETFs increasing and 1,054 decreasing positions, while energy services name Baker Hughes (BKR) attracted 1,501 new ETF positions against Deckers Outdoor's (DECK) 1,240 exits from footwear and apparel allocations.

DE Deere & Company ⭐

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -3.4% 3M +20.2% 1Y +22.3%

1522 ETFs • 0 shares

MNST Monster Beverage Corporation ⭐

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -0.7% 3M -6.7% 1Y +25.2%

1519 ETFs • 0 shares

BKR Baker Hughes Company ⭐

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D -3.8% 3M +34.5% 1Y +44.0%

1501 ETFs • 0 shares

COP ConocoPhillips ⭐

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +2.0% 3M +42.5% 1Y +32.3%

1394 ETFs • 0 shares

EOG EOG Resources, Inc. ⭐

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +1.4% 3M +38.1% 1Y +17.3%

1369 ETFs • 0 shares

DECK Deckers Outdoor Corporation ⭐

- Selling Falling Stock 5D -1.3% 3M -3.5% 1Y -10.3%

1240 ETFs • 0 shares

DE Deere & Company ⭐

- Selling Falling Stock 5D -3.4% 3M +20.2% 1Y +22.3%

1109 ETFs • 0 shares

MNST Monster Beverage Corporation ⭐

- Selling Falling Stock 5D -0.7% 3M -6.7% 1Y +25.2%

1054 ETFs • 0 shares

HSY The Hershey Company ⭐

- Selling Falling Stock 5D -3.4% 3M +15.0% 1Y +25.3%

1014 ETFs • 0 shares

NDAQ Nasdaq, Inc. ⭐

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +0.7% 3M -14.1% 1Y +14.3%

978 ETFs • 0 shares

Rep. Tim Moore made multiple purchases in LGIH and CBRL while selling DNUT, demonstrating concentrated buying activity in the homebuilding and restaurant sectors. Other congressional members reduced positions across healthcare equipment (GEHC) and telecommunications (T), with selling activity outnumbering purchases when accounting for Moore's duplicate LGIH transactions.

CBRL Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +3.2% 3M +11.0% 1Y -28.6%

Rep. Tim Moore (Tim Moore) • $15,001 - $50,000

LGIH LGI Homes, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +5.8% 3M -8.6% 1Y -39.9%

Rep. Tim Moore (Tim Moore) • $15,001 - $50,000

LGIH LGI Homes, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +5.8% 3M -8.6% 1Y -39.9%

Rep. Tim Moore (Tim Moore) • $50,001 - $100,000

LGIH LGI Homes, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +5.8% 3M -8.6% 1Y -39.9%

Rep. Tim Moore (Tim Moore) • $15,001 - $50,000

RPM RPM International Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +3.3% 3M -5.8% 1Y -11.6%

Rep. David Taylor (David Taylor) • $1,001 - $15,000

GEHC GE HealthCare Technologies Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +0.3% 3M -14.4% 1Y -10.9%

Rep. Warren Davidson (Warren Davidson) • $1,001 - $15,000

DNUT Krispy Kreme, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +0.0% 3M -18.7% 1Y -31.6%

Rep. Tim Moore (Tim Moore) • $15,001 - $50,000

T AT&T Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +0.3% 3M +18.3% 1Y +6.1%

Rep. Mark Alford (Mark Alford) • $1,001 - $15,000

BRK/B BRK/B ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ - Selling Rising Stock

Rep. Mark Alford (Mark Alford) • $1,001 - $15,000

DIA State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust ⭐ CONGRESS

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +0.4% 3M -4.4% 1Y +12.7%

Rep. Mark Alford (Mark Alford) • $1,001 - $15,000

META saw concentrated award activity with 42 insiders receiving equity compensation, while CRM recorded 8 insider purchases during the period. On the distribution side, DELL led with 119 insiders offloading $321.9M in shares, followed by GRDN's 10 insiders selling $419.3M and WMT's 5 insiders disposing of $407.0M in stock.

META Meta Platforms, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -3.5% 3M -13.1% 1Y -0.6%

42 insiders • $8.4B

CRM Salesforce, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +2.0% 3M -29.9% 1Y -30.4%

8 insiders • $132.9M

NONE NONE ⭐ INSIDER

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

2 insiders • $75.0M

WVE Wave Life Sciences Ltd. ⭐ INSIDER

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -37.7% 3M -59.4% 1Y -15.9%

4 insiders • $54.6M

DMRA Galecto, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

7 insiders • $48.3M

GRDN Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +0.2% 3M +21.6% 1Y +86.9%

10 insiders • $419.3M

WMT Walmart Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +1.8% 3M +10.4% 1Y +47.0%

5 insiders • $407.0M

DELL Dell Technologies Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -7.2% 3M +28.8% 1Y +80.4%

119 insiders • $321.9M

AVGO Broadcom Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

- Selling Falling Stock 5D -2.7% 3M -11.4% 1Y +83.8%

16 insiders • $250.0M

PBF PBF Energy Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -5.0% 3M +79.4% 1Y +159.0%

27 insiders • $190.9M

Today's earnings calendar features 25 companies reporting results, with recent smart money activity showing accumulation in 601200.SS and TERN ahead of their announcements, while institutional investors have been reducing positions in 3549.T and MGNT.ME. This earnings slate follows notable momentum in yesterday's session, where NG surged 11.1%, MAPI.JK gained 9.1%, and JHSF3.SA advanced 7.2%.

📊 Previous Earnings — April 01, 2026

76 reported • ✅ 6 beats • ❌ 10 misses

NG NovaGold Resources Inc. ⭐ BEAT +11.1%

30

+ Buying Falling Stock

EPS: $-0.04 vs $-0.06 est (+33.3%)

MAPI.JK PT. Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk ⭐ BEAT +9.1%

30

+ Buying Falling Stock

EPS: $51.59 vs $34.41 est (+49.9%)

JHSF3.SA JHSF Participações S.A. ⭐ BEAT +7.2%

50

+ Buying Falling Stock

EPS: $1.52 vs $0.10 est (+1420.0%)

AG1.DE AUTO1 Group SE ⭐ MISS -6.2%

30

+ Buying Falling Stock

EPS: $0.07 vs $0.09 est (-23.8%)

ATX.V ATEX Resources Inc. ⭐ MET +4.7%

30

+ Buying Falling Stock

EPS: $-0.06 vs $-0.06 est

UNF UniFirst Corporation ⭐ MISS -4.5%

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

EPS: $-1.97 vs $1.21 est (-262.8%)

000725.SZ BOE Technology Group Company Limited ⭐ BEAT -2.2%

30

+ Buying Falling Stock

EPS: $0.03 vs $0.03 est (+12.5%)

MSM MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. ⭐ MISS +1.9%

30

+ Buying Falling Stock

EPS: $-0.17 vs $0.84 est (-120.2%)

DRVN Driven Brands Holdings Inc. ⭐ BEAT +1.9%

30

+ Buying Falling Stock

EPS: $0.30 vs $0.28 est (+6.1%)

300454.SZ Sangfor Technologies Inc. ⭐ MISS -1.9%

30

+ Buying Falling Stock

EPS: $1.12 vs $1.15 est (-2.6%)

🎯 Reporting Today — April 02, 2026

25 reporting • Smart Money: 3 acc • 19 dist • 3 neut

601200.SS Shanghai Environment Group Co., Ltd ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

TERN Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

EPS: $-0.24 vs $-0.29 est

2493.T E-SUPPORTLINK, Ltd. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

600893.SS AECC Aviation Power Co.,Ltd ⭐

50

+ Buying Falling Stock

601158.SS Chongqing Water Group Co.,Ltd. ⭐

50

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

000028.SZ China National Accord Medicines Corporation Ltd. ⭐

50

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

3549.T Kusuri No Aoki Holdings Co., Ltd. ⭐

30

+ Buying Falling Stock

MGNT.ME PJSC Magnit ⭐

30

+ Buying Falling Stock

600104.SS SAIC Motor Corporation Limited ⭐

30

+ Buying Falling Stock

8276.T Heiwado Co.,Ltd. ⭐

30

+ Buying Falling Stock

3498.T Kasumigaseki Capital Co.,Ltd. ⭐

30

+ Buying Falling Stock

7545.T Nishimatsuya Chain Co., Ltd. ⭐

30

+ Buying Falling Stock

7447.T Nagaileben Co., Ltd. ⭐

30

+ Buying Falling Stock

600885.SS Hongfa Technology Co., Ltd. ⭐

30

+ Buying Falling Stock

002456.SZ OFILM Group Co., Ltd. ⭐

30

+ Buying Falling Stock

Smart money flows reveal a cautious institutional posture with selective positioning across sectors rather than broad conviction. META saw concentrated equity award activity involving 42 insiders, while CRM recorded 8 insider purchases during the period. Distribution dominated the insider landscape as DELL led with 119 insiders offloading $321.9M in shares, followed by GRDN's 10 insiders selling $419.3M and WMT's 5 insiders disposing of $407.0M in stock. Exchange-traded funds displayed mixed positioning with 1,522 ETFs adding Deere & Company (DE) exposure while 1,109 simultaneously reduced it, suggesting rotation within agricultural and machinery holdings rather than directional conviction. Monster Beverage (MNST) saw similar two-way flows with 1,519 ETFs increasing and 1,054 decreasing positions, while energy services name Baker Hughes (BKR) attracted 1,501 new ETF positions against Deckers Outdoor's (DECK) 1,240 exits from footwear and apparel allocations. On Capitol Hill, Rep. Tim Moore made multiple purchases in LGIH and CBRL while selling DNUT, demonstrating concentrated buying activity in the homebuilding and restaurant sectors, though other congressional members reduced positions across healthcare equipment (GEHC) and telecommunications (T). Market structure signals heightened stress with defensive positioning dominating as the VIX climbed 17.1% over the past week to reach 30.61, a level indicating elevated fear and uncertainty in stock markets. This equity volatility stands in stark contrast to bond market calm, as the MOVE index declined 19.3% to 11.58, creating an unusual divergence where stock investors are pricing in significant turbulence while Treasury markets remain subdued. Sector rotation reflects this defensive tilt with Energy leading at 100% breadth followed by Utilities at 68%, while cyclical sectors like Financials, Industrials, and Real Estate register near-zero participation. Major indices display uniformly weak breadth with SPY at 20%, QQQ at 18%, and DIA at 17%, indicating a narrow market where only select sectors are advancing—a configuration reflecting flight to defensive and commodity-linked sectors amid broad weakness across growth and economically-sensitive areas. Accumulation signals registered 30 instances with top names including VST, ALKT, and FIG, while distribution signals remained at zero. The economic backdrop presents conflicting signals that warrant close monitoring as labor market data takes center stage. Yesterday's retail sales rose 0.5% versus 0.3% expected, showing resilient consumer spending despite mortgage rates climbing to 6.57% from 6.43% the prior week. This consumer strength stands in stark contrast to softer labor indicators, as ADP's 62K private payroll gain and manufacturing employment holding below the 50 breakeven threshold at 48.7 suggest underlying weakness in hiring trends—a divergence that typically precedes broader economic slowdowns. Today's initial jobless claims estimate of 212K and tomorrow's critical nonfarm payrolls report will prove pivotal, with economists expecting just 60K jobs added after February's striking

Key themes: Watch convergence signals closely. Stocks where insiders, institutions, and politicians agree tend to show stronger directional moves.