The Edge

🐷 PIG ROAST

💬 Word on the Street

While the VIX spiked 17.1% to 30.6 and ten insiders at Guardant Health (GRDN) dumped $419.3 million worth of stock, Rep. Tim Moore scooped up $15,001 to $50,000 in Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL)—and institutional players poured in a net $7.9 billion across the market as if they know something the panic-sellers don't. After hours, Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) exploded 20% on $124 million in data center orders while Lumentum Holdings (LITE) quietly surged 8% despite the chaos, and the Fed quietly injected $1.2 billion in fresh liquidity into the system. Here's what smart money actually did with their capital today.

The Big Idea: When insiders, institutions, AND politicians all bet on the same stock? That's convergence — and historically, these aligned signals tend to pack more punch than solo moves. We track the smart money so you don't have to.

ETF Institutional funds adding/removing positions
INSIDER Corporate executives buying/selling their own stock
CONGRESS Politicians making trades (yes, we see you)

▲ + Buying Rising Stock: Smart money accumulating as price rises — ideal alignment
+ Buying Falling Stock: Smart money accumulating while price drops — falling knife risk
▲ - Selling Rising Stock: Smart money exiting while price still rising — warning signal
- Selling Falling Stock: Smart money exiting as price drops — confirms downtrend

The Bottom Line: Convergence + aligned momentum = strongest setups. Convergence + divergent momentum = proceed with caution. This isn't financial advice — it's intelligence. What you do with it is on you.

📚 Jargon Buster

Atlanta Fed GDPNow

The Fed’s real-time guess at GDP. Moves markets more than it should because everyone’s addicted.

Equity volatility has surged into high-fear territory with the VIX climbing 17.1% week-over-week to reach 30.61, signaling heightened uncertainty in stock markets as traders price in elevated risk. This stands in stark contrast to bond market volatility, where the MOVE index dropped 22.2% to 11.51, indicating relative calm in fixed income markets. The divergence between elevated equity volatility and subdued bond volatility suggests investors are anticipating stock-specific turbulence while viewing Treasury markets as comparatively stable.

|| Market Sutra ||

"A thesis without timestamps is a belief, not a strategy."

— Gold bugs predicted hyperinflation for 40 years without timing

The current market regime shows defensive positioning with Energy, Utilities, and Technology sectors capturing the majority of institutional attention at 100%, 68%, and 32% respectively, while economically sensitive areas like Real Estate, Industrials, and Financials lag significantly at 6% or below. Major index breadth remains narrow across the board, with SPY, QQQ, DIA, and IYT all registering participation rates between 12% and 20%, indicating concentrated leadership rather than broad-based market strength. This combination of defensive sector rotation and weak breadth suggests institutions are positioning cautiously, favoring quality and stability over cyclical exposure.

As of March 25, Fed net liquidity stands at $6.66 trillion, up $1.2 billion week-over-week, indicating a marginal expansion in system liquidity that historically correlates with supportive conditions for risk assets. The next H.4.1 release drops Thursday, April 02, which will show whether this liquidity expansion continues or reverses.

Yesterday's trade data showed exports surging to $314.8B against $304.0B estimates—a substantial $10.8B beat that marked the highest reading in over a year—while the overall trade deficit narrowed less than expected to -$57.3B, offering modest relief from the deteriorating trend seen since late 2024. Initial jobless claims dropped sharply to 202K versus 212K expected, extending the labor market's resilience even as the Atlanta Fed slashed its Q1 GDP nowcast to 1.6% from 1.9%, signaling potential stagflationary headwinds. Today's critical jobs report faces heightened scrutiny with nonfarm payrolls expected to swing dramatically from -92K to positive 60K—a 152K reversal that would snap two consecutive months of job losses—while traders will parse whether wage growth continues decelerating (3.7% YoY expected versus 3.8% prior) and if the participation rate ticks up to 62.3% from 62.0%, which could ease pressure on the unemployment rate even if job creation disappoints.

Institutional flows this period show a rotation into big tech and pharmaceuticals, with 2,713 ETFs adding META positions and 2,437 increasing ABBV holdings, while enterprise software faced selling pressure as 1,847 ETFs reduced CRM exposure. AVGO saw mixed activity with simultaneous buying and selling across different fund families, appearing on both the top additions (2,628 ETFs) and top redemptions (1,748 ETFs) lists.

META Meta Platforms, Inc. ⭐

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -3.5% 3M -13.1% 1Y -0.6%

2713 ETFs • 0 shares

AVGO Broadcom Inc. ⭐

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -2.7% 3M -11.4% 1Y +83.8%

2628 ETFs • 0 shares

ABBV AbbVie Inc. ⭐

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +6.0% 3M -5.8% 1Y +8.6%

2437 ETFs • 0 shares

JNJ Johnson & Johnson ⭐

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +3.9% 3M +17.8% 1Y +52.7%

2389 ETFs • 0 shares

PANW Palo Alto Networks, Inc. ⭐

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +2.0% 3M -14.2% 1Y -7.2%

2385 ETFs • 0 shares

CRM Salesforce, Inc. ⭐

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +2.0% 3M -29.9% 1Y -30.4%

1847 ETFs • 0 shares

JNJ Johnson & Johnson ⭐

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +3.9% 3M +17.8% 1Y +52.7%

1778 ETFs • 0 shares

AVGO Broadcom Inc. ⭐

- Selling Falling Stock 5D -2.7% 3M -11.4% 1Y +83.8%

1748 ETFs • 0 shares

NFLX Netflix, Inc. ⭐

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +5.7% 3M +2.1% 1Y +2.9%

1748 ETFs • 0 shares

META Meta Platforms, Inc. ⭐

- Selling Falling Stock 5D -3.5% 3M -13.1% 1Y -0.6%

1696 ETFs • 0 shares

Rep. Tim Moore executed multiple purchases in CBRL and LGIH while selling DNUT, demonstrating concentrated buying activity in the restaurant and homebuilding sectors. Meanwhile, Reps. Warren Davidson and Mark Alford reduced positions in GEHC and AMZN respectively, with no clear sector pattern emerging across the selling activity.

CBRL Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +3.2% 3M +11.0% 1Y -28.6%

Rep. Tim Moore (Tim Moore) • $15,001 - $50,000

LGIH LGI Homes, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +5.8% 3M -8.6% 1Y -39.9%

Rep. Tim Moore (Tim Moore) • $15,001 - $50,000

LGIH LGI Homes, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +5.8% 3M -8.6% 1Y -39.9%

Rep. Tim Moore (Tim Moore) • $50,001 - $100,000

LGIH LGI Homes, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +5.8% 3M -8.6% 1Y -39.9%

Rep. Tim Moore (Tim Moore) • $15,001 - $50,000

IBP Installed Building Products, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -0.8% 3M -0.3% 1Y +56.5%

Rep. David Taylor (David Taylor) • $1,001 - $15,000

GEHC GE HealthCare Technologies Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +0.3% 3M -14.4% 1Y -10.9%

Rep. Warren Davidson (Warren Davidson) • $1,001 - $15,000

DNUT Krispy Kreme, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +0.0% 3M -18.7% 1Y -31.6%

Rep. Tim Moore (Tim Moore) • $15,001 - $50,000

AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +0.5% 3M -10.3% 1Y +8.1%

Rep. Mark Alford (Mark Alford) • $1,001 - $15,000

BRK/B BRK/B ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ - Selling Rising Stock

Rep. Mark Alford (Mark Alford) • $1,001 - $15,000

DIA State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust ⭐ CONGRESS

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +0.4% 3M -4.4% 1Y +12.7%

Rep. Mark Alford (Mark Alford) • $1,001 - $15,000

Recent insider filings show concentrated selling activity at GRDN where 10 insiders collectively disposed of $419.3M in shares, WMT where 4 insiders sold $405.4M, and DELL where 117 insiders reduced positions totaling $321.7M. On the purchasing side, META recorded 42 insider transactions involving stock purchases or awards, while CRM and SVRE saw 6 and 4 insiders adding to their positions respectively.

META Meta Platforms, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -3.5% 3M -13.1% 1Y -0.6%

42 insiders • $8.4B

SVRE SaverOne 2014 Ltd ⭐ INSIDER

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -2.5% 3M +123.4% 1Y -89.4%

4 insiders • $1.1B

CRM Salesforce, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +2.0% 3M -29.9% 1Y -30.4%

6 insiders • $132.4M

IPX IperionX Limited ⭐ INSIDER

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +12.0% 3M -28.6% 1Y +44.0%

15 insiders • $83.4M

NONE NONE ⭐ INSIDER

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

3 insiders • $75.3M

GRDN Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +0.2% 3M +21.6% 1Y +86.9%

10 insiders • $419.3M

WMT Walmart Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +1.8% 3M +10.4% 1Y +47.0%

4 insiders • $405.4M

DELL Dell Technologies Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -7.2% 3M +28.8% 1Y +80.4%

117 insiders • $321.7M

AVGO Broadcom Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

- Selling Falling Stock 5D -2.7% 3M -11.4% 1Y +83.8%

16 insiders • $250.0M

PBF PBF Energy Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -5.0% 3M +79.4% 1Y +159.0%

26 insiders • $188.3M

Thirty-seven companies report earnings today, with accumulation signals detected in 001965.SZ and 002422.SZ ahead of their results, while distribution signals appeared in VSMO.ME and 3612.T. Yesterday, TERN gained 5.4% as traders positioned ahead of this week's reporting calendar, which concludes after today's session with no companies scheduled for tomorrow.

📊 Previous Earnings — April 02, 2026

29 reported • ✅ 1 beats • ❌ 2 misses

TERN Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc. ⭐ BEAT +5.4%

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

EPS: $-0.24 vs $-0.29 est (+17.2%)

ATX.V ATEX Resources Inc. ⭐ MET +4.7%

30

+ Buying Falling Stock

EPS: $-0.06 vs $-0.06 est

AYI Acuity Brands, Inc. ⭐ MISS -1.0%

30

+ Buying Falling Stock

EPS: $3.16 vs $4.01 est (-21.2%)

LNN Lindsay Corporation ⭐ MISS -0.5%

30

+ Buying Falling Stock

EPS: $1.15 vs $1.70 est (-32.4%)

3549.T Kusuri No Aoki Holdings Co., Ltd. ⭐

30

+ Buying Falling Stock

MGNT.ME PJSC Magnit ⭐

30

+ Buying Falling Stock

600104.SS SAIC Motor Corporation Limited ⭐

30

+ Buying Falling Stock

8276.T Heiwado Co.,Ltd. ⭐

30

+ Buying Falling Stock

600893.SS AECC Aviation Power Co.,Ltd ⭐

50

+ Buying Falling Stock

3498.T Kasumigaseki Capital Co.,Ltd. ⭐

30

+ Buying Falling Stock

🎯 Reporting Today — April 03, 2026

37 reporting • Smart Money: 8 acc • 21 dist • 8 neut

001965.SZ China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings Co.,Ltd. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

EPS: $0.22 vs $0.00 est

002422.SZ Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

82331.HK Li Ning Company Limited ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

3333.T Asahi Co., Ltd. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

6492.T Okano Valve Mfg.Co.Ltd. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

1997.T Akatsuki Eazima Co., Ltd. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

6093.T Escrow Agent Japan, Inc. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

3035.T ktk Inc. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

INKP.JK PT Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk ⭐

50

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

6264.T Marumae Co., Ltd. ⭐

50

+ Buying Falling Stock

001270.SZ Zhejiang Chengchang Technology Co., Ltd. ⭐

50

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

EPS: $0.13 vs $0.00 est

9872.T Kitakei Co., Ltd. ⭐

50

+ Buying Falling Stock

300196.SZ Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co., Ltd ⭐

50

+ Buying Falling Stock

3377.T BIKE O & Co. Ltd. ⭐

50

+ Buying Falling Stock

PIKQF PT Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk ⭐

50

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

Smart money flows reveal a decisive rotation into mega-cap technology and healthcare, with institutions adding Meta Platforms (META) across 2,713 ETFs and AbbVie (ABBV) across 2,437 funds, while simultaneously retreating from enterprise software as 1,847 ETFs reduced Salesforce (CRM) exposure. This institutional preference for established tech giants finds validation in insider activity, where Meta Platforms recorded 42 insider transactions involving purchases or awards, and Salesforce saw 6 insiders adding positions despite the broader institutional exodus. On Capitol Hill, Rep. Tim Moore executed multiple purchases in Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) and LGI Homes (LGIH) while disposing of Krispy Kreme (DNUT), concentrating bets in restaurant and homebuilding names, even as Rep. Mark Alford reduced Amazon.com (AMZN) holdings and Rep. Warren Davidson trimmed GE HealthCare Technologies (GEHC). The most dramatic insider signal came from Garden Co. (GRDN), where 10 insiders collectively offloaded $419.3 million in shares, followed by Walmart (WMT) with 4 insiders selling $405.4 million and Dell Technologies (DELL) where 117 insiders disposed of $321.7 million in stock. Market structure points to heightened caution as the VIX surged 17.1% week-over-week to 30.61, reaching high-fear territory that contrasts sharply with the MOVE index's 22.2% decline to 11.51, creating an unusual divergence where equity traders price in significant turbulence while bond markets remain calm. This defensive positioning manifests in sector flows, with Energy, Utilities, and Technology commanding 100%, 68%, and 32% of institutional attention respectively, while economically sensitive areas like Real Estate, Industrials, and Financials languish at 6% or below. Breadth deterioration reinforces this cautious stance, as SPY, QQQ, DIA, and IYT all register participation rates between just 12% and 20%, indicating leadership remains concentrated in a narrow cohort of names rather than reflecting broad-based market health. With 30 accumulation signals detected across the market—led by Meta Platforms, Citigroup (C), and Salesforce—against zero distribution signals, and SPY strength registering only 20.5%, the tape suggests selective institutional conviction rather than market-wide conviction. Today's employment report carries exceptional weight given the expected 152,000-job swing from negative 92,000 to positive 60,000 nonfarm payrolls, which would snap two consecutive months of job losses amid stagflationary concerns after the Atlanta Fed slashed its Q1 GDP nowcast to 1.6% from 1.9%. Yesterday's trade data provided mixed signals as exports surged to $314.8 billion—beating estimates by $10.8 billion for the highest reading in over a year—yet the overall trade deficit narrowed less than expected to negative $57.3 billion, while initial jobless claims

Key themes: Watch convergence signals closely. Stocks where insiders, institutions, and politicians agree tend to show stronger directional moves.