The Edge

🐷 PIG ROAST

💬 Word on the Street

While Rep. David Taylor quietly scooped up shares of Installed Building Products (IBP) and insiders at Walmart (WMT) dumped $368.8 million in a single day, the real fireworks happened after hours—UnitedHealth Group (UNH) surged 9.4% on Medicare news despite bleeding 41.9% over the past year, and Avis Budget Group (CAR) rocketed another 20% in a violent short squeeze that's now delivered a jaw-dropping 99% gain year-to-date. With $9.7 billion flowing into stocks versus just $1.5 billion heading for the exits, the smart money is clearly making moves while retail investors are still nursing their wounds from the volatility storm. Here's what smart money is doing today.

The Big Idea: When insiders, institutions, AND politicians all bet on the same stock? That's convergence — and historically, these aligned signals tend to pack more punch than solo moves. We track the smart money so you don't have to.

ETF Institutional funds adding/removing positions
INSIDER Corporate executives buying/selling their own stock
CONGRESS Politicians making trades (yes, we see you)

▲ + Buying Rising Stock: Smart money accumulating as price rises — ideal alignment
+ Buying Falling Stock: Smart money accumulating while price drops — falling knife risk
▲ - Selling Rising Stock: Smart money exiting while price still rising — warning signal
- Selling Falling Stock: Smart money exiting as price drops — confirms downtrend

The Bottom Line: Convergence + aligned momentum = strongest setups. Convergence + divergent momentum = proceed with caution. This isn't financial advice — it's intelligence. What you do with it is on you.

📚 Jargon Buster

NAHB Index

Homebuilder mood ring. Over 50 = they’re popping champagne. Under 50 = they’re eating ramen in the dark.

Equity volatility declined sharply this week, with the VIX falling 22.2% to 24.17, though it remains in elevated territory above the 20 level that typically signals heightened investor concern about potential stock market swings. Bond market volatility told a different story, with the MOVE index dropping 21.9% to 12.13, indicating unusually calm conditions in fixed income markets. This divergence between elevated equity fear and subdued bond volatility suggests investors are pricing in different risk scenarios across asset classes, with stock market participants remaining more cautious despite the week-over-week improvement in sentiment measures.

|| Market Sutra ||

"Small cracks precede large collapses."

— Bear Stearns hedge funds imploded months before Lehman fell

Market breadth remains narrow across major indices, with only 12-20% of constituents outperforming, suggesting a concentrated leadership environment. Energy and Utilities are dominating sector performance while traditional growth areas like Technology show modest participation at 32%, creating an unusual dynamic where defensive and commodity-linked sectors lead rather than economically-sensitive groups. The significant underperformance in Financials, Industrials, and Real Estate indicates limited conviction in economic acceleration, contrasting with the typical risk-on characteristics that would accompany broad market strength.

The Fed's net liquidity stood at $6.68 trillion as of April 1, up $18.2 billion from the prior week, indicating an expansion in available market liquidity that historically correlates with supportive conditions for risk assets. The next H.4.1 data release drops Thursday, April 9, which will show whether this liquidity expansion continued or reversed.

Yesterday's durable goods data painted a mixed picture as the core ex-transportation measure jumped 0.8% versus expectations of 0.5%, signaling underlying business investment strength, while headline orders fell 1.4% against estimates of a 0.5% decline—a miss driven largely by volatile aircraft orders. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker dropped from 1.6% to 1.3% for Q1, marking a notable deceleration from Q4's 4.4% pace and suggesting momentum is cooling as the Economic Surprise Index itself has eased from +4.0 to +2.9 over the past week. Markets today will focus on FOMC minutes for clues on rate path thinking and speeches from Fed officials Daly and Waller, while tomorrow's slate brings the critical Core PCE reading (expected to hold at 0.4% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year, down from 3.1%), alongside Q4 GDP's final revision and February personal spending data—all key inputs for assessing whether inflation's descent toward the Fed's 2% target has stalled.

Institutional money managers demonstrated mixed conviction in mega-cap technology during the recent period, with MSFT seeing 3,531 ETFs add positions while simultaneously 2,710 ETFs reduced exposure, alongside heavy buying in META and AVGO indicating continued rotation within the technology sector itself. The selling pressure concentrated in healthcare (JNJ) and streaming (NFLX) suggests institutions rebalanced away from defensive plays and pandemic beneficiaries toward semiconductor and AI-infrastructure names.

MSFT Microsoft Corporation ⭐

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +3.7% 3M -21.1% 1Y +0.3%

3531 ETFs • 0 shares

META Meta Platforms, Inc. ⭐

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +7.2% 3M -12.7% 1Y +8.4%

3369 ETFs • 0 shares

AVGO Broadcom Inc. ⭐

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +13.8% 3M -2.8% 1Y +117.7%

3185 ETFs • 0 shares

MU Micron Technology, Inc. ⭐

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +17.3% 3M +21.0% 1Y +408.7%

3068 ETFs • 0 shares

JNJ Johnson & Johnson ⭐

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D -1.7% 3M +17.3% 1Y +52.5%

2900 ETFs • 0 shares

MSFT Microsoft Corporation ⭐

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +3.7% 3M -21.1% 1Y +0.3%

2710 ETFs • 0 shares

JNJ Johnson & Johnson ⭐

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -1.7% 3M +17.3% 1Y +52.5%

2251 ETFs • 0 shares

NFLX Netflix, Inc. ⭐

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +6.3% 3M +8.1% 1Y +7.8%

2197 ETFs • 0 shares

AVGO Broadcom Inc. ⭐

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +13.8% 3M -2.8% 1Y +117.7%

2171 ETFs • 0 shares

MU Micron Technology, Inc. ⭐

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +17.3% 3M +21.0% 1Y +408.7%

2101 ETFs • 0 shares

Congressional trading activity showed Rep. David Taylor rotating out of grocery retailer KR while purchasing IBP, and Rep. Tim Moore adding two positions in the consumer/housing sectors with CBRL and LGIH. On the selling side, Rep. Kevin Hern disposed of EXAS and Rep. Warren Davidson exited GEHC, indicating some members took profits or reduced exposure in healthcare-related holdings.

IBP Installed Building Products, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +1.7% 3M -4.5% 1Y +60.7%

Rep. David Taylor (David Taylor) • $1,001 - $15,000

CBRL Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +2.4% 3M +7.8% 1Y -19.9%

Rep. Tim Moore (Tim Moore) • $15,001 - $50,000

LGIH LGI Homes, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -3.3% 3M -14.7% 1Y -40.3%

Rep. Tim Moore (Tim Moore) • $15,001 - $50,000

LGIH LGI Homes, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -3.3% 3M -14.7% 1Y -40.3%

Rep. Tim Moore (Tim Moore) • $50,001 - $100,000

LGIH LGI Homes, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -3.3% 3M -14.7% 1Y -40.3%

Rep. Tim Moore (Tim Moore) • $15,001 - $50,000

KR The Kroger Co. ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -1.4% 3M +18.2% 1Y +4.3%

Rep. David Taylor (David Taylor) • $1,001 - $15,000

EXAS Exact Sciences Corporation ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +1.0% 3M +3.5% 1Y +136.9%

Rep. Kevin Hern (Kevin Hern) • $1,001 - $15,000

GEHC GE HealthCare Technologies Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +1.4% 3M -18.0% 1Y -3.0%

Rep. Warren Davidson (Warren Davidson) • $1,001 - $15,000

MDT Medtronic plc ⭐ CONGRESS

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +0.8% 3M -11.2% 1Y -0.1%

Rep. Kevin Hern (Kevin Hern) • $15,001 - $50,000

PLD Prologis, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +3.5% 3M +2.7% 1Y +34.6%

Rep. Kevin Hern (Kevin Hern) • $50,001 - $100,000

Notable cluster activity this week shows 15 insiders at IPX made coordinated purchases while 82 insiders at CRWV collectively sold $179.1M in shares. On the sales side, Walmart saw 3 insiders offload $368.8M and Broadcom recorded 16 insiders distributing $250M in positions.

PAM Pampa Energía S.A. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +0.9% 3M -0.2% 1Y +17.2%

2 insiders • $8.8B

SVRE SaverOne 2014 Ltd ⭐ INSIDER

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +12.5% 3M -37.6% 1Y -87.9%

3 insiders • $419.5M

IPX IperionX Limited ⭐ INSIDER

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +13.1% 3M -36.0% 1Y +72.9%

15 insiders • $83.4M

CVS CVS Health Corporation ⭐ INSIDER

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +11.5% 3M -1.9% 1Y +19.3%

17 insiders • $70.6M

ULTA Ulta Beauty, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +4.3% 3M -15.7% 1Y +44.7%

6 insiders • $67.6M

WMT Walmart Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

- Selling Falling Stock 5D -0.8% 3M +8.7% 1Y +41.4%

3 insiders • $368.8M

AVGO Broadcom Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +13.8% 3M -2.8% 1Y +117.7%

16 insiders • $250.0M

CRWV CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock ⭐ INSIDER

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +23.3% 3M +10.9% 1Y +58.4%

82 insiders • $179.1M

PBF PBF Energy Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -8.2% 3M +57.7% 1Y +185.3%

18 insiders • $112.3M

WYNN Wynn Resorts, Limited ⭐ INSIDER

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +3.8% 3M -15.9% 1Y +38.8%

3 insiders • $84.4M

Markets showed sharp divergence yesterday with AEHR surging 66.8% while GBX retreated 7.7% and LEVI gained 8.5%. Today 46 companies report earnings, with institutional accumulation patterns identified in 7581.T and 3543.T, while distribution activity has been observed in 2670.T and 8570.T ahead of their results. No companies are scheduled to report tomorrow.

📊 Previous Earnings — April 07, 2026

36 reported • ✅ 5 beats • ❌ 1 misses

AEHR Aehr Test Systems ⭐ BEAT +66.8%

50

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

EPS: $-0.05 vs $-0.08 est (+37.5%)

LEVI Levi Strauss & Co. ⭐ BEAT +8.5%

30

+ Buying Falling Stock

EPS: $0.42 vs $0.37 est (+13.5%)

GBX The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. ⭐ MISS -7.7%

30

+ Buying Falling Stock

EPS: $0.47 vs $0.82 est (-42.9%)

ATX.V ATEX Resources Inc. ⭐ MET +5.7%

30

+ Buying Falling Stock

EPS: $-0.06 vs $-0.06 est

2726.T PAL Group Holdings Co. Ltd. ⭐ BEAT +1.8%

30

+ Buying Falling Stock

EPS: $21.38 vs $18.43 est (+16.0%)

NCKL.JK PT Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk ⭐ MET +0.9%

30

+ Buying Falling Stock

EPS: $31.90 vs $31.90 est

PXED Phoenix Education Partners, Inc ⭐ BEAT -0.7%

50

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

EPS: $0.58 vs $0.34 est (+70.6%)

PGCMF Puregold Price Club, Inc. ⭐ BEAT -0.1%

30

+ Buying Falling Stock

EPS: $0.02 vs $0.02 est (+11.1%)

9787.T Aeon Delight Co., Ltd. ⭐

50

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

2659.T SAN-A CO.,Ltd. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

EPS: $42.06 vs $0.00 est

🎯 Reporting Today — April 08, 2026

46 reporting • Smart Money: 5 acc • 27 dist • 14 neut

7581.T Saizeriya Co.,Ltd. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

3543.T KOMEDA Holdings Co., Ltd. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

EPS: $38.36 vs $0.00 est

AMKYF ABC-Mart,Inc. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

BTS.VI BTV Vier Länder Bank AG ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

EPS: $0.48 vs $0.00 est

NWC.TO The North West Company Inc. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

6183.T BELLSYSTEM24 Holdings, Inc. ⭐

50

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

0J50.L Hess Corporation ⭐

50

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

DAL Delta Air Lines, Inc. ⭐

50

+ Buying Falling Stock

0QZ4.L Delta Air Lines, Inc. ⭐

50

+ Buying Falling Stock

6255.T NPC Incorporated ⭐

50

+ Buying Falling Stock

RYKKY Ryohin Keikaku Co., Ltd. ⭐

50

+ Buying Falling Stock

EVT.SW Evotec SE ⭐

50

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

PSMT PriceSmart, Inc. ⭐

50

+ Buying Falling Stock

0468.HK Greatview Aseptic Packaging Company Limited ⭐

50

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

ORPEF Orpea S.A. ⭐

50

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

Smart money flows this week revealed divergent positioning across institutional and insider camps, with institutional managers showing particular ambivalence toward mega-cap technology as 3,531 ETFs added Microsoft positions while 2,710 simultaneously reduced exposure, alongside heavy accumulation in Meta Platforms and Broadcom that suggests continued rotation within the technology sector itself toward semiconductor and AI-infrastructure names. Insider activity painted a more cautious picture, with 82 insiders at CRWV collectively offloading $179.1M in shares, while Walmart saw 3 insiders dispose of $368.8M and Broadcom recorded 16 insiders distributing $250M in positions despite institutional buying interest. Congressional trading showed Rep. David Taylor rotating out of grocery retailer Kroger while purchasing IBP, and Rep. Tim Moore adding positions in consumer and housing sectors with Cracker Barrel Old Country Store and LGI Homes, even as Rep. Kevin Hern disposed of Exact Sciences and Rep. Warren Davidson exited GE Healthcare, signaling selective profit-taking in healthcare-related holdings. Market breadth remains stubbornly narrow with only 12-20% of constituents outperforming across major indices, creating a concentrated leadership environment where Energy and Utilities dominate sector performance while traditional growth areas like Technology show modest participation at 32%. The VIX fell 22.2% to 24.17, though it remains in elevated territory above the 20 level that typically signals heightened investor concern, while bond market volatility told a starkly different story with the MOVE index dropping 21.9% to 12.13, indicating unusually calm conditions in fixed income markets. This divergence between elevated equity fear and subdued bond volatility suggests investors are pricing in different risk scenarios across asset classes, with significant underperformance in Financials, Industrials, and Real Estate indicating limited conviction in economic acceleration and contrasting with the typical risk-on characteristics that would accompany broad market strength. Attention now turns to today's FOMC minutes and speeches from Fed officials Daly and Waller for clues on rate path thinking, followed by tomorrow's critical Core PCE reading expected to hold at 0.4% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year down from 3.1%, alongside the Q4 GDP final revision and February personal spending data. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker dropped from 1.6% to 1.3% for Q1, marking a notable deceleration from Q4's 4.4% pace as the Economic Surprise Index itself eased from +4.0 to +2.9 over the past week, raising questions about whether inflation's descent toward the Fed's 2% target has stalled. Accumulation signals registered 30 instances with top names including Meta Platforms, Citigroup, and AutoZone, while distribution signals remain at zero, creating a technical backdrop where defensive and commodity-linked sectors lead rather than economically-sensitive groups in an unusual dynamic that bears close monitoring as earnings season continues with 46 companies reporting today.

Key themes: Watch convergence signals closely. Stocks where insiders, institutions, and politicians agree tend to show stronger directional moves.