The Edge

🐷 PIG ROAST

💬 Word on the Street

While Rep. W. Gregory Steube (R-FL) quietly picked up Marriott International (MAR) shares worth up to $50,000, the real fireworks erupted after hours as quantum fever and loosened day trading rules sent Robinhood Markets (HOOD) and IonQ (IONQ) absolutely ripping—10% and 21% respectively—even as Logan Group (LGN) insiders dumped a staggering $1.7 billion in what might be the year's most dramatic vote of no confidence. The VIX plunged 28.8% to 18.4 while the Fed quietly pumped $18.5 billion into the system, and with $9.3 billion in net smart money inflows today, someone's betting big on something. Here's what smart money is doing today.

The Big Idea: When insiders, institutions, AND politicians all bet on the same stock? That's convergence — and historically, these aligned signals tend to pack more punch than solo moves. We track the smart money so you don't have to.

ETF Institutional funds adding/removing positions
INSIDER Corporate executives buying/selling their own stock
CONGRESS Politicians making trades (yes, we see you)

▲ + Buying Rising Stock: Smart money accumulating as price rises — ideal alignment
+ Buying Falling Stock: Smart money accumulating while price drops — falling knife risk
▲ - Selling Rising Stock: Smart money exiting while price still rising — warning signal
- Selling Falling Stock: Smart money exiting as price drops — confirms downtrend

The Bottom Line: Convergence + aligned momentum = strongest setups. Convergence + divergent momentum = proceed with caution. This isn't financial advice — it's intelligence. What you do with it is on you.

📚 Jargon Buster

DFV

DeepFuckingValue. The patron saint of apes. Turned $53k into $50M then disappeared like a legend. We still kneel.

Equity volatility retreated sharply this week, with the VIX declining 28.8% to 18.36, settling back into normal range after a period of heightened concern. In contrast, bond market volatility told a different story, as the MOVE index jumped 33.3% to 14.73, though it remains at historically low absolute levels. This divergence suggests equity investors have grown more comfortable with near-term risks while fixed income markets are beginning to price in increased uncertainty around interest rate movements.

|| Market Sutra ||

"The hardest part of a crash is accepting it."

— March 2020 denial trades blew up portfolios

Market breadth shows a narrow rally with semiconductors and utilities leading at 84% and 81% participation respectively, while defensive sectors like healthcare and consumer staples lag significantly at 34% and 31%. The SPY and QQQ show tepid breadth at just 54% and 50%, though transports demonstrate relative strength at 70%, creating a divergence between the broad market's narrow participation and pockets of concentrated sector leadership. This type of narrow breadth typically indicates a market regime where gains concentrate in specific areas rather than broad-based participation across sectors.

As of April 8, the Fed's net liquidity stands at $6.69 trillion, up $18.5 billion from the prior week, indicating a modest expansion in available market liquidity that historically correlates with supportive conditions for risk assets. The next H.4.1 report releases Thursday, April 16, which will show whether this liquidity expansion continues or reverses.

Yesterday's data painted a mixed picture as New York manufacturing unexpectedly surged to 11.0 from -0.2, crushing the -0.5 estimate in a sharp reversal from contraction, while homebuilder sentiment deteriorated to 34.0—missing the 37.0 forecast and marking the lowest level since December as elevated mortgage rates continue weighing on the sector despite the modest decline to 6.42%. The inventory draws were particularly notable, with gasoline stocks falling 6.328 million barrels against expectations for a 2.1 million decline, more than triple the forecast miss, while Treasury inflows surged to $58.6 billion in February from just $2.4 billion prior, indicating renewed foreign appetite for U.S. debt. Today's focus shifts to retail sales data for March and initial jobless claims, with markets watching whether consumer spending held up following February's solid 0.4% monthly gain, while tomorrow brings housing starts and permits that will test whether the recent builder sentiment weakness is translating into actual construction slowdowns from March's sharp 11.4% monthly decline.

Large-cap technology stocks experienced mixed institutional positioning last period, with MSFT, META, and AVGO drawing the highest number of ETF additions (3,289, 3,188, and 2,957 funds respectively) while simultaneously seeing significant reductions from other funds (2,390, 1,964, and 1,940 funds). The balanced 10-to-10 split between ETFs adding and removing positions across these mega-cap software, social media, and semiconductor names suggests institutional rotation within technology rather than broad sector abandonment.

MSFT Microsoft Corporation ⭐

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +9.8% 3M -12.4% 1Y +6.4%

3289 ETFs • 0 shares

META Meta Platforms, Inc. ⭐

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +9.7% 3M +6.4% 1Y +23.8%

3188 ETFs • 0 shares

AVGO Broadcom Inc. ⭐

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +13.1% 3M +11.9% 1Y +118.9%

2957 ETFs • 0 shares

MU Micron Technology, Inc. ⭐

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +12.2% 3M +34.9% 1Y +557.0%

2774 ETFs • 0 shares

INTC Intel Corporation ⭐

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +10.2% 3M +37.3% 1Y +229.0%

2543 ETFs • 0 shares

MSFT Microsoft Corporation ⭐

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +9.8% 3M -12.4% 1Y +6.4%

2390 ETFs • 0 shares

META Meta Platforms, Inc. ⭐

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +9.7% 3M +6.4% 1Y +23.8%

1964 ETFs • 0 shares

AVGO Broadcom Inc. ⭐

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +13.1% 3M +11.9% 1Y +118.9%

1940 ETFs • 0 shares

NFLX Netflix, Inc. ⭐

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +8.3% 3M +19.2% 1Y +17.2%

1873 ETFs • 0 shares

MU Micron Technology, Inc. ⭐

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +12.2% 3M +34.9% 1Y +557.0%

1867 ETFs • 0 shares

Congressional trading activity shows Rep. Michael McCaul rotating out of energy and semiconductor exposure (SHEL, ASML, WWD) while adding broad market index exposure through VOO. Other notable purchases included Rep. W. Gregory Steube acquiring Marriott International (MAR) and Rep. April Delaney adding pest control company Rollins (ROL).

MAR Marriott International, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +4.3% 3M +12.8% 1Y +62.7%

Rep. W. Gregory Steube (W. Gregory Steube) • $15,001 - $50,000

VOO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +3.6% 3M +0.8% 1Y +31.9%

Rep. Michael McCaul (Michael McCaul) • $1,001 - $15,000

ROL Rollins, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -0.6% 3M -11.5% 1Y -0.7%

Rep. April Delaney (April Delaney) • $1,001 - $15,000

TSCO Tractor Supply Company ⭐ CONGRESS

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -1.2% 3M -13.2% 1Y -12.3%

Rep. April Delaney (April Delaney) • $1,001 - $15,000

ENTG Entegris, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +5.7% 3M +34.3% 1Y +97.2%

Rep. April Delaney (April Delaney) • $1,001 - $15,000

SHEL Shell plc ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -2.4% 3M +23.9% 1Y +49.1%

Rep. Michael McCaul (Michael McCaul) • $15,001 - $50,000

ASML ASML Holding N.V. ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +4.3% 3M +16.8% 1Y +123.1%

Rep. Michael McCaul (Michael McCaul) • $1,001 - $15,000

WWD Woodward, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -0.5% 3M +19.2% 1Y +135.3%

Rep. Michael McCaul (Michael McCaul) • $1,001 - $15,000

BRK/B BRK/B ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ - Selling Rising Stock

Sen. Tina Smith (Tina Smith) • $100,001 - $250,000

FDS FactSet Research Systems Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +3.5% 3M -20.5% 1Y -45.3%

Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (Shelley Moore Capito) • $1,001 - $15,000

Recent insider filings show clustered activity at several companies, with 111 insiders at SE collectively distributing $71.9M in shares, while 96 insiders at CRWV sold $288.9M, and 4 insiders at LGN disposed of $1.7B. On the accumulation side, 10 insiders at IPX purchased shares together, along with clustered buying from 5 insiders at SVC and 3 insiders at SVRE.

SVRE SaverOne 2014 Ltd ⭐ INSIDER

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D -3.2% 3M -40.0% 1Y -82.5%

3 insiders • $11.6B

IPX IperionX Limited ⭐ INSIDER

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +8.9% 3M -27.1% 1Y +130.6%

10 insiders • $80.5M

NASDAQ:SVC NASDAQ:SVC ⭐ INSIDER

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

5 insiders • $50.3M

LW Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +3.8% 3M +3.9% 1Y -19.6%

10 insiders • $37.4M

LONA LeonaBio, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D -1.0% 3M +45.0%

12 insiders • $20.9M

LGN Legence Corp. Class A Common stock ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +20.4% 3M +52.0%

4 insiders • $1.7B

CRWV CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +33.5% 3M +35.7% 1Y +171.3%

96 insiders • $288.9M

SE Sea Limited ⭐ INSIDER

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +5.9% 3M -30.4% 1Y -23.3%

111 insiders • $71.9M

MNR Mach Natural Resources LP ⭐ INSIDER

- Selling Falling Stock 5D -0.1% 3M +19.6% 1Y +7.4%

2 insiders • $71.2M

UTHR United Therapeutics Corporation ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -0.7% 3M +21.1% 1Y +105.4%

143 insiders • $65.3M

197 stocks report earnings today, with institutional activity showing accumulation in 2330.TW ahead of its results and distribution occurring in TLKM.JK and INFY.NS prior to their reports. Yesterday's session saw significant moves in 2454.TW, ASML.WA, and 300750.SZ, each gaining over 10%, while no companies are scheduled to report tomorrow.

📊 Previous Earnings — April 15, 2026

168 reported • ✅ 58 beats • ❌ 14 misses

2454.TW MediaTek Inc. ⭐ MISS +13.3%

50

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

EPS: $14.39 vs $15.14 est (-5.0%)

ASML.WA ASML Holding N.V. ⭐ BEAT +10.6%

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

EPS: $30.68 vs $28.29 est (+8.4%)

300750.SZ Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited ⭐ BEAT +10.2%

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

EPS: $4.53 vs $3.76 est (+20.5%)

MS Morgan Stanley ⭐ BEAT +8.8%

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

EPS: $3.43 vs $3.02 est (+13.6%)

DWD.DE Morgan Stanley ⭐ BEAT +8.7%

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

EPS: $2.97 vs $2.62 est (+13.4%)

6271.TW Tong Hsing Electronic Industries, Ltd. ⭐ BEAT +8.6%

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

EPS: $1.88 vs $1.84 est (+2.2%)

0QYU.L Morgan Stanley ⭐ BEAT +8.3%

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

EPS: $3.43 vs $3.02 est (+13.6%)

ICICIPRULI.BO ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company Limited ⭐ BEAT +8.3%

30

+ Buying Falling Stock

EPS: $4.17 vs $3.27 est (+27.5%)

ICICIPRULI.NS ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company Limited ⭐ BEAT +8.2%

30

+ Buying Falling Stock

EPS: $4.17 vs $3.27 est (+27.5%)

BACRP Bank of America Corporation PFD SER B 7% ⭐ BEAT +8.0%

30

+ Buying Falling Stock

EPS: $1.11 vs $1.01 est (+9.9%)

🎯 Reporting Today — April 16, 2026

197 reporting • Smart Money: 68 acc • 63 dist • 66 neut

2330.TW Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

EPS: $22.09 vs $20.92 est

LPPF.JK PT Matahari Department Store Tbk ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

HCLTECH.BO HCL Technologies Limited ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

EPS: $3.49 vs $3.31 est

TSFA.F Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

EPS: $3.02 vs $2.86 est

2327.TW Yageo Corporation ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

NFLX Netflix, Inc. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

NFC.DE Netflix, Inc. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

IREDA.NS Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency Limited ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

IREDA.BO Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency Limited ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

007690.KS Kukdo Chemical Co., Ltd. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

0L3I.L The Charles Schwab Corporation ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

SCHW The Charles Schwab Corporation ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

3593.T Hogy Medical Co.,Ltd. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

HAGA.IC Hagar hf ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

Smart money flows reveal a complex institutional repositioning within the technology sector, as large-cap names like Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), and Broadcom (AVGO) saw nearly balanced activity with 3,289, 3,188, and 2,957 ETF additions respectively, offset by 2,390, 1,964, and 1,940 fund reductions. This 10-to-10 split between funds adding and removing positions suggests rotation within technology rather than outright abandonment. Meanwhile, insider activity showed significant distribution clusters, with 111 insiders at SE collectively disposing of $71.9 million in shares, 96 insiders at CRWV selling $288.9 million, and 4 insiders at LGN distributing $1.7 billion. On the congressional front, Representative Michael McCaul rotated out of energy and semiconductor exposure including Shell PLC (SHEL), ASML Holding (ASML), and Woodward Inc (WWD) while adding broad market index exposure through Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO), with Representative W. Gregory Steube acquiring Marriott International (MAR) and Representative April Delaney adding Rollins Inc (ROL). Accumulation signals currently stand at 30 with Meta Platforms (META), Oracle (ORCL), and Citigroup (C) topping the list, while distribution signals register at zero. Market conditions reflect a fragmented environment where equity volatility has normalized sharply with the VIX declining 28.8% to 18.36, yet bond market volatility surged 33.3% as the MOVE index climbed to 14.73, signaling divergent risk perceptions between asset classes. The breadth picture reveals a troublingly narrow rally concentrated in semiconductors and utilities with 84% and 81% participation respectively, while defensive sectors like healthcare and consumer staples languish at 34% and 31%. This concentration becomes more evident when considering SPY and QQQ show tepid breadth at just 54% and 50%, though transports demonstrate relative strength at 70%. Such narrow participation typically characterizes market regimes where gains concentrate in specific pockets rather than reflecting broad-based conviction, creating vulnerability should leadership falter in those concentrated areas. Today's economic calendar brings critical retail sales data for March and initial jobless claims, testing whether consumer spending momentum continued following February's solid 0.4% monthly gain, particularly important given yesterday's mixed signals where New York manufacturing surged to 11.0 from negative 0.2, crushing the negative 0.5 estimate, while homebuilder sentiment deteriorated to 34.0, the lowest level since December as mortgage rates at 6.42% continue pressuring the housing sector. With 197 companies reporting earnings today and institutional activity showing accumulation in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (2330.TW) ahead of results while distribution occurred in Telkom Indonesia (TLKM.JK) and Infosys (INFY.NS) prior to their reports, the convergence of economic data releases and earnings season intensity creates a testing ground for whether

Key themes: Watch convergence signals closely. Stocks where insiders, institutions, and politicians agree tend to show stronger directional moves.