The Edge

🐷 PIG ROAST

💬 Word on the Street

While Rep. W. Gregory Steube (R-FL) quietly picked up Marriott International Inc (MAR) shares, insiders at Livongo Health (LGN) unloaded a staggering $1.7 billion in a single day—part of a brutal $2.6 billion net outflow that tells you everything about where the real players think we're headed. After hours, the action got wild: Rocket Lab USA Inc (RKLB) rocketed up 12.7% on a European defense play, Avis Budget Group Inc (CAR) squeezed another 13.4% higher in its relentless short-burn rally, and Hims & Hers Health Inc (HIMS) jumped 11% on FDA whispers that might be nothing but smoke. Here's what smart money actually did with their portfolios today.

The Big Idea: When insiders, institutions, AND politicians all bet on the same stock? That's convergence — and historically, these aligned signals tend to pack more punch than solo moves. We track the smart money so you don't have to.

ETF Institutional funds adding/removing positions
INSIDER Corporate executives buying/selling their own stock
CONGRESS Politicians making trades (yes, we see you)

▲ + Buying Rising Stock: Smart money accumulating as price rises — ideal alignment
+ Buying Falling Stock: Smart money accumulating while price drops — falling knife risk
▲ - Selling Rising Stock: Smart money exiting while price still rising — warning signal
- Selling Falling Stock: Smart money exiting as price drops — confirms downtrend

The Bottom Line: Convergence + aligned momentum = strongest setups. Convergence + divergent momentum = proceed with caution. This isn't financial advice — it's intelligence. What you do with it is on you.

📚 Jargon Buster

Roaring Kitty

DFV’s alter ego. One livestream and the entire market gets hard. SEC still mad.

Equity volatility declined sharply this week with the VIX falling 13.6% to 18.17, remaining in normal territory and suggesting moderating concern in stock markets. Bond market volatility told a different story, as the MOVE index surged 38.0% to 15.89, though still at historically low levels, indicating increased uncertainty around interest rate movements despite the modest absolute reading. The divergence between equity and fixed income volatility measures reflects differing sentiment across asset classes, with bond traders appearing more cautious about potential rate shifts while equity investors have grown somewhat less defensive.

|| Market Sutra ||

"Markets move from disbelief → belief → delusion → reversal."

— Crypto cycles follow this progression almost perfectly

Market breadth shows moderate participation with major indices hovering near 60%, while the transport sector demonstrates notably stronger internal momentum at 81%. Technology-focused semiconductors lead sector performance at 92%, joined by utilities and financials above 75%, creating a bifurcated market where defensive staples and healthcare lag significantly in the bottom third. This configuration reflects a risk-on tilt in cyclical and growth areas, though the concentrated leadership in select sectors contrasts with the more tepid breadth across the broader market averages.

As of April 15, Fed net liquidity stood at $6.71 trillion, up $11.8 billion week-over-week, indicating a modest expansion in system liquidity that historically correlates with supportive conditions for risk assets. The next H.4.1 data release is scheduled for Thursday, April 23, which will show whether this liquidity expansion continues or reverses.

Yesterday's jobless claims fell to 207K, beating the 215K estimate and marking the lowest level since late February, while the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index surged to 26.7—crushing the 10.0 estimate and hitting its highest reading since April 2021, signaling an unexpected rebound in regional factory activity. However, Industrial Production contracted 0.5% versus expectations for a 0.1% gain, missing by 60 basis points and reversing the prior month's 0.7% expansion, reflecting weakness in manufacturing output that contradicts the Philly Fed's optimism. Today's focus shifts to March housing data, where markets will watch whether Building Permits and Housing Starts can stabilize after February's sharp 11.4% monthly decline, while speeches from Fed governors Barkin and Waller may provide clues on the policy outlook amid this mixed inflation and growth picture.

Institutional investors showed mixed positioning in mega-cap technology during the recent period, with ETFs split evenly between additions and reductions, though MSFT, META, and AVGO saw net inflows from 899, 1,224, and 1,017 more funds respectively adding exposure than removing it. The flow pattern indicates continued but cautious accumulation in software, social media, and semiconductor names, with institutions appearing to rebalance rather than establish directional conviction in the technology sector.

MSFT Microsoft Corporation ⭐

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +12.7% 3M -8.3% 1Y +8.9%

3289 ETFs • 0 shares

META Meta Platforms, Inc. ⭐

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +7.7% 3M +10.0% 1Y +27.6%

3188 ETFs • 0 shares

AVGO Broadcom Inc. ⭐

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +12.2% 3M +17.2% 1Y +124.2%

2957 ETFs • 0 shares

MU Micron Technology, Inc. ⭐

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +8.5% 3M +37.2% 1Y +544.8%

2774 ETFs • 0 shares

INTC Intel Corporation ⭐

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +11.0% 3M +40.6% 1Y +237.3%

2543 ETFs • 0 shares

MSFT Microsoft Corporation ⭐

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +12.7% 3M -8.3% 1Y +8.9%

2390 ETFs • 0 shares

META Meta Platforms, Inc. ⭐

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +7.7% 3M +10.0% 1Y +27.6%

1964 ETFs • 0 shares

AVGO Broadcom Inc. ⭐

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +12.2% 3M +17.2% 1Y +124.2%

1940 ETFs • 0 shares

NFLX Netflix, Inc. ⭐

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +5.5% 3M +21.6% 1Y +15.6%

1873 ETFs • 0 shares

MU Micron Technology, Inc. ⭐

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +8.5% 3M +37.2% 1Y +544.8%

1867 ETFs • 0 shares

Recent congressional filings show Rep. Michael McCaul divested positions in semiconductor equipment manufacturer ASML, woodworking products company WWD, and energy firm SHEL, while adding to broad market index VTI. Meanwhile, Rep. W. Gregory Steube purchased shares of hospitality company MAR and Rep. Thomas H. Kean added packaging manufacturer AMCR to his portfolio.

MAR Marriott International, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +2.7% 3M +13.6% 1Y +63.4%

Rep. W. Gregory Steube (W. Gregory Steube) • $15,001 - $50,000

AMCR Amcor plc ⭐ CONGRESS

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -3.8% 3M -7.7% 1Y +340.5%

Rep. Thomas H. Kean (Thomas H. Kean) • $1,001 - $15,000

VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +3.2% 3M +1.5% 1Y +31.8%

Rep. Michael McCaul (Michael McCaul) • $1,001 - $15,000

ROL Rollins, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -2.4% 3M -12.1% 1Y -1.3%

Rep. April Delaney (April Delaney) • $1,001 - $15,000

EQT EQT Corporation ⭐ CONGRESS

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -1.8% 3M +16.5% 1Y +17.9%

Rep. Michael McCaul (Michael McCaul) • $15,001 - $50,000

WWD Woodward, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -4.5% 3M +13.2% 1Y +121.2%

Rep. Michael McCaul (Michael McCaul) • $1,001 - $15,000

ASML ASML Holding N.V. ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -2.6% 3M +11.8% 1Y +111.1%

Rep. Michael McCaul (Michael McCaul) • $1,001 - $15,000

SHEL Shell plc ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +0.5% 3M +24.2% 1Y +50.8%

Rep. Michael McCaul (Michael McCaul) • $15,001 - $50,000

BRK/B BRK/B ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ - Selling Rising Stock

Sen. Tina Smith (Tina Smith) • $100,001 - $250,000

FDS FactSet Research Systems Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +8.6% 3M -21.1% 1Y -46.0%

Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (Shelley Moore Capito) • $1,001 - $15,000

Multiple insiders accumulated shares at LONA (12 insiders), LW (10 insiders), and CGON (5 insiders) during the reporting period. On the distribution side, CRWV saw the largest cluster with 105 insiders selling $285.5M in aggregate, while LGN recorded 4 insiders offloading $1.7B and ASTS had 2 insiders disposing of $270.9M in shares.

CGON CG Oncology, Inc. Common stock ⭐ INSIDER

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D -3.2% 3M +19.5% 1Y +230.7%

5 insiders • $40.2M

LW Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +5.1% 3M +1.9% 1Y -20.4%

10 insiders • $37.4M

LONA LeonaBio, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D -13.7% 3M +25.1%

12 insiders • $20.9M

IMVT Immunovant, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +6.6% 3M +0.0% 1Y +77.2%

11 insiders • $20.5M

MESO Mesoblast Limited ⭐ INSIDER

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +10.6% 3M -8.8% 1Y +49.8%

26 insiders • $19.9M

LGN Legence Corp. Class A Common stock ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +15.2% 3M +54.3%

4 insiders • $1.7B

CRWV CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +30.0% 3M +33.1% 1Y +174.2%

105 insiders • $285.5M

ASTS AST SpaceMobile, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -0.7% 3M -4.5% 1Y +296.9%

2 insiders • $270.9M

WYNN Wynn Resorts, Limited ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +1.8% 3M -8.4% 1Y +46.3%

5 insiders • $83.3M

MNR Mach Natural Resources LP ⭐ INSIDER

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +5.1% 3M +23.5% 1Y +10.1%

2 insiders • $71.2M

Yesterday's notable movers included 2327.TW climbing 15.4%, 603129.SS advancing 11.0%, and MAN gaining 7.9%. With 151 stocks reporting today, accumulation activity has been detected in BBTN.JK and LPPF.JK ahead of their earnings, while distribution signals appeared in TLKM.JK and SIDO.JK. No earnings reports are scheduled for tomorrow.

📊 Previous Earnings — April 16, 2026

202 reported • ✅ 58 beats • ❌ 16 misses

2327.TW Yageo Corporation ⭐ BEAT +15.4%

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

EPS: $3.90 vs $3.79 est (+2.9%)

603129.SS Zhejiang Cfmoto Power Co.,Ltd ⭐ MISS +11.0%

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

EPS: $0.72 vs $1.79 est (-59.9%)

MAN ManpowerGroup Inc. ⭐ BEAT +7.9%

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

EPS: $0.51 vs $0.50 est (+2.0%)

ICICIGI.BO ICICI Lombard General Insurance Company Limited ⭐ BEAT +7.7%

50

+ Buying Falling Stock

EPS: $11.33 vs $10.96 est (+3.4%)

ICICIGI.NS ICICI Lombard General Insurance Company Limited ⭐ BEAT +7.6%

50

+ Buying Falling Stock

EPS: $11.33 vs $10.96 est (+3.4%)

NFC.DE Netflix, Inc. ⭐ BEAT +6.9%

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

EPS: $1.06 vs $0.66 est (+60.6%)

2330.TW Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited ⭐ BEAT +6.7%

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

EPS: $21.85 vs $20.92 est (+4.4%)

ABT Abbott Laboratories ⭐ BEAT -6.5%

30

+ Buying Falling Stock

EPS: $1.15 vs $1.14 est (+0.9%)

NFLX Netflix, Inc. ⭐ BEAT +5.5%

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

EPS: $1.23 vs $0.76 est (+61.2%)

MRSH Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. ⭐ BEAT +5.4%

50

+ Buying Falling Stock

EPS: $3.29 vs $3.22 est (+2.2%)

🎯 Reporting Today — April 17, 2026

151 reporting • Smart Money: 55 acc • 47 dist • 49 neut

BBTN.JK PT Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

LPPF.JK PT Matahari Department Store Tbk ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

HINDZINC.NS Hindustan Zinc Limited ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

HINDZINC.BO Hindustan Zinc Limited ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

HDFCAMC.NS HDFC Asset Management Company Limited ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

HDFCAMC.BO HDFC Asset Management Company Limited ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

EPS: $14.58 vs $14.56 est

SCB.BK SCB X Public Company Limited ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

SCB-R.BK SCB X Public Company Limited ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

ERIC-B.ST Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ) ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

EPS: $0.27 vs $1.07 est

ERIC-A.ST Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ) ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

EPS: $0.27 vs $1.04 est

IREDA.NS Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency Limited ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

IREDA.BO Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency Limited ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

3593.T Hogy Medical Co.,Ltd. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

002353.SZ Yantai Jereh Oilfield Services Group Co., Ltd. ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

TARIL.NS Transformers and Rectifiers (India) Limited ⭐

70

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

Smart money flows reveal a complex positioning landscape as institutions cautiously accumulate select mega-cap technology names while corporate insiders demonstrate divergent conviction across different market segments. Institutional investors added exposure to Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), and Broadcom (AVGO), with 899, 1,224, and 1,017 more funds respectively increasing positions than reducing them, suggesting measured rather than aggressive accumulation in software, social media, and semiconductor leaders. Corporate insiders clustered their buying at LONA with 12 participants, LW with 10 insiders, and CGON drawing 5 buyers, while the selling side told a different story as CRWV experienced an exodus of 105 insiders disposing of $285.5 million in aggregate, LGN saw 4 insiders unload $1.7 billion, and ASTS recorded 2 insiders selling $270.9 million. On Capitol Hill, Rep. Michael McCaul divested semiconductor equipment manufacturer ASML, woodworking products company WWD, and energy firm SHEL while adding broad market exposure through Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), Rep. W. Gregory Steube purchased hospitality company Marriott International (MAR), and Rep. Thomas H. Kean added packaging manufacturer Amcor (AMCR). Market regime indicators point to a bifurcated environment where cyclical leadership masks underlying breadth concerns, even as volatility dynamics diverge sharply between equity and fixed income markets. The VIX declined 13.6% to 18.17, reflecting diminishing defensive positioning among equity traders, yet the MOVE index surged 38.0% to 15.89 as bond market participants grew more cautious about interest rate trajectory uncertainty. Market breadth remains moderate with major indices hovering near 60% internal strength, though transports demonstrate notably stronger momentum at 81% and semiconductors lead all sectors at 92%, joined by utilities and financials above 75%. This concentration in cyclical and growth areas contrasts with defensive staples and healthcare languishing in the bottom third, creating a risk-on tilt that relies heavily on select sector leadership rather than broad market participation. Accumulation signals reached 30 instances with Meta Platforms (META), Oracle (ORCL), and Citigroup (C) topping the list, while distribution signals registered zero, reinforcing the constructive but selective nature of current positioning. Economic data presents conflicting signals that market participants will need to reconcile as housing data arrives today alongside commentary from Fed governors Barkin and Waller. Yesterday's jobless claims dropped to 207,000—the lowest reading since late February and well below the 215,000 estimate—while the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index exploded to 26.7, crushing expectations of 10.0 and marking its strongest level since April 2021. However, Industrial Production contracted 0.5% against forecasts for a 0.1% gain, reversing the prior month's 0.7% expansion and raising questions about the sustainability of the manufacturing rebound suggested by regional surveys. Today's Building Permits and Housing Starts data will test whether the

Key themes: Watch convergence signals closely. Stocks where insiders, institutions, and politicians agree tend to show stronger directional moves.