The Edge

🐷 PIG ROAST

💬 Word on the Street

While Rep. W. Gregory Steube (R-FL) quietly picked up Marriott International Inc (MAR) shares, insiders at Livongo Health (LGN) unloaded a staggering $1.7 billion in a single day—part of a brutal $2.6 billion net outflow that tells you everything about where the real players think we're headed. After hours, the action got wild: Rocket Lab USA Inc (RKLB) rocketed up 12.7% on a European defense play, Avis Budget Group Inc (CAR) squeezed another 13.4% higher in its relentless short-burn rally, and Hims & Hers Health Inc (HIMS) jumped 11% on FDA whispers that might be nothing but smoke. Here's what smart money actually did with their portfolios today.

📚 Jargon Buster

Roaring Kitty

DFV’s alter ego. One livestream and the entire market gets hard. SEC still mad.

Equity volatility declined sharply this week with the VIX falling 13.6% to 18.17, remaining in normal territory and suggesting moderating concern in stock markets. Bond market volatility told a different story, as the MOVE index surged 38.0% to 15.89, though still at historically low levels, indicating increased uncertainty around interest rate movements despite the modest absolute reading. The divergence between equity and fixed income volatility measures reflects differing sentiment across asset classes, with bond traders appearing more cautious about potential rate shifts while equity investors have grown somewhat less defensive.

|| Market Sutra ||

"Markets move from disbelief → belief → delusion → reversal."

— Crypto cycles follow this progression almost perfectly

Market breadth shows moderate participation with major indices hovering near 60%, while the transport sector demonstrates notably stronger internal momentum at 81%. Technology-focused semiconductors lead sector performance at 92%, joined by utilities and financials above 75%, creating a bifurcated market where defensive staples and healthcare lag significantly in the bottom third. This configuration reflects a risk-on tilt in cyclical and growth areas, though the concentrated leadership in select sectors contrasts with the more tepid breadth across the broader market averages.

As of April 15, Fed net liquidity stood at $6.71 trillion, up $11.8 billion week-over-week, indicating a modest expansion in system liquidity that historically correlates with supportive conditions for risk assets. The next H.4.1 data release is scheduled for Thursday, April 23, which will show whether this liquidity expansion continues or reverses.

Yesterday's jobless claims fell to 207K, beating the 215K estimate and marking the lowest level since late February, while the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index surged to 26.7—crushing the 10.0 estimate and hitting its highest reading since April 2021, signaling an unexpected rebound in regional factory activity. However, Industrial Production contracted 0.5% versus expectations for a 0.1% gain, missing by 60 basis points and reversing the prior month's 0.7% expansion, reflecting weakness in manufacturing output that contradicts the Philly Fed's optimism. Today's focus shifts to March housing data, where markets will watch whether Building Permits and Housing Starts can stabilize after February's sharp 11.4% monthly decline, while speeches from Fed governors Barkin and Waller may provide clues on the policy outlook amid this mixed inflation and growth picture.

Institutional investors showed mixed positioning in mega-cap technology during the recent period, with ETFs split evenly between additions and reductions, though MSFT, META, and AVGO saw net inflows from 899, 1,224, and 1,017 more funds respectively adding exposure than removing it. The flow pattern indicates continued but cautious accumulation in software, social media, and semiconductor names, with institutions appearing to rebalance rather than establish directional conviction in the technology sector.

MSFT Microsoft Corporation ⭐

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +12.7% 3M -8.3% 1Y +8.9%

3289 ETFs • 0 shares

META Meta Platforms, Inc. ⭐

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +7.7% 3M +10.0% 1Y +27.6%

3188 ETFs • 0 shares

AVGO Broadcom Inc. ⭐

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +12.2% 3M +17.2% 1Y +124.2%

2957 ETFs • 0 shares

MSFT Microsoft Corporation ⭐

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +12.7% 3M -8.3% 1Y +8.9%

2390 ETFs • 0 shares

META Meta Platforms, Inc. ⭐

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +7.7% 3M +10.0% 1Y +27.6%

1964 ETFs • 0 shares

AVGO Broadcom Inc. ⭐

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +12.2% 3M +17.2% 1Y +124.2%

1940 ETFs • 0 shares

Recent congressional filings show Rep. Michael McCaul divested positions in semiconductor equipment manufacturer ASML, woodworking products company WWD, and energy firm SHEL, while adding to broad market index VTI. Meanwhile, Rep. W. Gregory Steube purchased shares of hospitality company MAR and Rep. Thomas H. Kean added packaging manufacturer AMCR to his portfolio.

MAR Marriott International, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +2.7% 3M +13.6% 1Y +63.4%

Rep. W. Gregory Steube (W. Gregory Steube) • $15,001 - $50,000

AMCR Amcor plc ⭐ CONGRESS

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -3.8% 3M -7.7% 1Y +340.5%

Rep. Thomas H. Kean (Thomas H. Kean) • $1,001 - $15,000

VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +3.2% 3M +1.5% 1Y +31.8%

Rep. Michael McCaul (Michael McCaul) • $1,001 - $15,000

WWD Woodward, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -4.5% 3M +13.2% 1Y +121.2%

Rep. Michael McCaul (Michael McCaul) • $1,001 - $15,000

ASML ASML Holding N.V. ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -2.6% 3M +11.8% 1Y +111.1%

Rep. Michael McCaul (Michael McCaul) • $1,001 - $15,000

SHEL Shell plc ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +0.5% 3M +24.2% 1Y +50.8%

Rep. Michael McCaul (Michael McCaul) • $15,001 - $50,000

Multiple insiders accumulated shares at LONA (12 insiders), LW (10 insiders), and CGON (5 insiders) during the reporting period. On the distribution side, CRWV saw the largest cluster with 105 insiders selling $285.5M in aggregate, while LGN recorded 4 insiders offloading $1.7B and ASTS had 2 insiders disposing of $270.9M in shares.

CGON CG Oncology, Inc. Common stock ⭐ INSIDER

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D -3.2% 3M +19.5% 1Y +230.7%

5 insiders • $40.2M

LW Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +5.1% 3M +1.9% 1Y -20.4%

10 insiders • $37.4M

LONA LeonaBio, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D -13.7% 3M +25.1%

12 insiders • $20.9M

LGN Legence Corp. Class A Common stock ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +15.2% 3M +54.3%

4 insiders • $1.7B

CRWV CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +30.0% 3M +33.1% 1Y +174.2%

105 insiders • $285.5M

ASTS AST SpaceMobile, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -0.7% 3M -4.5% 1Y +296.9%

2 insiders • $270.9M

Yesterday's notable movers included 2327.TW climbing 15.4%, 603129.SS advancing 11.0%, and MAN gaining 7.9%. With 151 stocks reporting today, accumulation activity has been detected in BBTN.JK and LPPF.JK ahead of their earnings, while distribution signals appeared in TLKM.JK and SIDO.JK. No earnings reports are scheduled for tomorrow.