The Edge

🐷 PIG ROAST

💬 Word on the Street

While Rep. Cleo Fields (D-LA) quietly picked up Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) shares worth up to $15,000, insiders at Livongo Health (LGN) were sprinting for the exits with $1.7 billion in sales—part of a brutal $4.3 billion net outflow day that tells you everything about whose conviction is cracking. Meanwhile, GE Vernova Inc. (GEV) crushed earnings by 794% as Wall Street finally wakes up to power infrastructure, and ARM Holdings plc (ARM) jumped on news it's ditching the landlord business to actually manufacture chips. Here's what smart money is doing today.

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Equity volatility as measured by the VIX remains within normal ranges at 19.50, though the 6.2% week-over-week increase signals a modest uptick in options-implied fear among stock market participants. The bond market tells a different story, with the MOVE index jumping 18.8% to 17.50 while still sitting at historically low levels, indicating that fixed income traders are pricing in more movement ahead despite relatively calm current conditions. The divergence between moderate equity nervousness and subdued bond market volatility suggests mixed sentiment across asset classes as traders position for uncertainty in stocks while remaining relatively sanguine about interest rate swings.

|| Market Sutra ||

"Retail sees price; institutions see flow."

— Dark-pool accumulation preceded Microsoft's 2016–2017 breakout

Market breadth shows moderate participation with the S&P 500 at 62% and Nasdaq at 58%, while cyclical sectors demonstrate notable strength as Semiconductors, Financials, and Real Estate lead with readings between 77% and 100%. This contrasts sharply with defensive sectors, where Utilities, Energy, and Consumer Staples lag significantly below 40%, suggesting a risk-on positioning despite relatively modest overall index breadth. The Transportation index stands out with 93% breadth, significantly outpacing the major indices and potentially signaling underlying economic strength that hasn't fully translated to broader market participation.

As of April 15, Fed net liquidity stands at $6.71 trillion, up $11.8 billion week-over-week, indicating a slight expansion in available market liquidity. The next H.4.1 data release drops Thursday, April 23, which will show whether this liquidity expansion continues—a trend that historically correlates with supportive conditions for risk assets.

Yesterday's energy data painted a mixed picture as crude oil inventories rose 1.925 million barrels against expectations for a 1.2 million drawdown, signaling weaker demand or increased supply, while gasoline stocks fell 4.57 million barrels—missing the 1.5 million estimate by a significant margin and suggesting robust consumption heading into the summer driving season. Mortgage rates edged down to 6.35% from 6.42%, offering modest relief to the housing sector ahead of today's March new home sales data. Today's focus shifts to the flash PMI readings where the services index sits right at the 50 expansion/contraction threshold (estimated 50.0 versus 49.8 prior), making any move particularly significant for market sentiment, while tomorrow's durable goods orders will be closely watched after the March headline is expected to decline sharply from February's 9.2% surge that was heavily skewed by volatile transportation orders.

Exchange-traded funds demonstrated mixed positioning in mega-cap technology during the recent period, with 3,538 ETFs adding Microsoft exposure, 3,442 adding Meta Platforms, and 3,393 adding Broadcom, while 2,246, 2,012, and 2,005 ETFs respectively reduced these same positions. The data reflects ongoing institutional rebalancing within large-cap software, social media, and semiconductor names rather than directional conviction, as total net flows showed balanced activity with equal numbers of funds on both sides of these trades.

MSFT Microsoft Corporation ⭐

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +5.3% 3M -2.3% 1Y +21.2%

3538 ETFs • 0 shares

META Meta Platforms, Inc. ⭐

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +0.5% 3M +10.1% 1Y +39.5%

3442 ETFs • 0 shares

AVGO Broadcom Inc. ⭐

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +6.5% 3M +28.5% 1Y +155.3%

3393 ETFs • 0 shares

MSFT Microsoft Corporation ⭐

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +5.3% 3M -2.3% 1Y +21.2%

2246 ETFs • 0 shares

META Meta Platforms, Inc. ⭐

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +0.5% 3M +10.1% 1Y +39.5%

2012 ETFs • 0 shares

AVGO Broadcom Inc. ⭐

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +6.5% 3M +28.5% 1Y +155.3%

2005 ETFs • 0 shares

Congressional trading activity shows lawmakers taking positions in semiconductor manufacturer TSM, hospitality company MAR, and HVAC manufacturer CARR this period. Meanwhile, representatives exited positions in telecommunications provider VZ, payroll processor PAYX, and financial services firm AXP, with Rep. Rick Larsen notably both adding and trimming different holdings in his portfolio.

TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +3.3% 3M +18.8% 1Y +164.0%

Rep. Cleo Fields (Cleo Fields) • $1,001 - $15,000

MAR Marriott International, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +0.9% 3M +14.8% 1Y +71.5%

Rep. W. Gregory Steube (W. Gregory Steube) • $15,001 - $50,000

CARR Carrier Global Corporation ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +3.6% 3M +5.0% 1Y +5.3%

Rep. Rick Larsen (Rick Larsen) • $1,001 - $15,000

VZ Verizon Communications Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +2.1% 3M +17.1% 1Y +10.7%

Rep. Jennifer McClellan (Jennifer McClellan) • $100,001 - $250,000

PAYX Paychex, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +3.5% 3M -11.9% 1Y -31.8%

Rep. Rick Larsen (Rick Larsen) • $1,001 - $15,000

AXP American Express Company ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +1.2% 3M -7.4% 1Y +38.0%

Rep. Rick Larsen (Rick Larsen) • $1,001 - $15,000

Notable cluster activity shows 18 insiders at KLRA made purchases while 271 insiders at CRWV collectively sold $1.3B in shares, representing the largest coordinated sale by headcount this period. On the institutional sale side, 4 insiders at LGN disposed of $1.7B in stock, marking the highest dollar value in insider sales, while 50 insiders at DELL reduced positions totaling $321.3M.

KLRA Kailera Therapeutics, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

18 insiders • $343.1M

NONE NONE ⭐ INSIDER

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

2 insiders • $61.4M

CGON CG Oncology, Inc. Common stock ⭐ INSIDER

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +3.2% 3M +22.3% 1Y +242.4%

5 insiders • $40.2M

LGN Legence Corp. Class A Common stock ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +14.0% 3M +65.2%

4 insiders • $1.7B

CRWV CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +3.2% 3M +30.3% 1Y +246.0%

271 insiders • $1.3B

DELL Dell Technologies Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +21.4% 3M +89.5% 1Y +164.1%

50 insiders • $321.3M

Today's earnings slate features 149 companies, with INTC and AXP showing recent accumulation activity from institutional investors ahead of their reports, while SAP and GILD have seen insider and institutional distribution in recent periods. Yesterday's session saw significant movement in HCSG, KALU, and STLD, each posting gains exceeding 17% following their quarterly results. Tomorrow's calendar lightens considerably with just 24 companies scheduled to report.