The Edge

🐷 PIG ROAST

💬 Word on the Street

Rep. Cleo Fields (D-LA) grabbed Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) shares while 285 insiders at Crown Electrokinetics (CRWV) collectively dumped $1.4 billion worth of stock—talk about mixed signals on the chip sector as analog semiconductors apparently become the new digital gold. Meanwhile, the VIX jumped 4.1% to 18.9 even as the Fed quietly injected $1.7 billion in liquidity, and smart money flows showed a $2.7 billion net outflow with $3.3 billion in sales overwhelming $632.2 million in purchases. Here's what smart money is doing today.

📚 Jargon Buster

Stonks

Stocks but spelled wrong on purpose because spelling is for suits.

The VIX rose 4.1% week-over-week to 18.92, remaining within the normal range that suggests neither complacency nor elevated concern among equity options traders. Meanwhile, the MOVE index increased 3.3% to 16.42, indicating bond market volatility remains subdued despite the uptick. Both indices moved higher in tandem this week, though neither has reached levels historically associated with significant market stress.

|| Market Sutra ||

"The end of euphoria feels like stability."

— Housing seemed stable in 2006—right before the collapse

Market breadth shows a tech-driven rally with Semiconductors leading at 100% participation and QQQ breadth at 60%, while defensive sectors like Utilities and Consumer Staples lag significantly at 36% and 25% respectively. The notable divergence appears in transports, where IYT breadth of 86% substantially exceeds the broader market indices, suggesting strength beyond just mega-cap technology. Financials and Real Estate showing 88% and 77% participation indicates cyclical sectors are participating in the advance alongside technology leadership.

As of April 22, Fed net liquidity stands at $6.71 trillion, up $1.7 billion week-over-week, indicating a marginal increase in system-wide dollar availability that historically correlates with supportive conditions for risk assets. The next H.4.1 release drops Thursday, April 30, which will show whether this liquidity expansion continues or reverses.

Yesterday's data painted a mixed picture as the S&P Global PMIs surged well above expectations with manufacturing jumping to 54.0 versus the 52.5 estimate—the composite's climb to 52.0 from a prior 50.3 signals expansion is accelerating even as the Chicago Fed Activity Index disappointed at -0.2 against expectations of 0.2, marking a sharp reversal from March's 0.03 reading. Today's Michigan Consumer Sentiment plunged to 47.6, matching estimates but representing a brutal drop from last month's 53.3 and marking the lowest reading since June 2022, while traders are now focused on the Michigan inflation expectations data later today which previously sat at 3.8% for the one-year outlook—any uptick could further complicate the Fed's rate path given the conflicting signals between deteriorating consumer confidence and robust PMI expansion. Durable goods orders are also in focus after last month's massive 9.2% headline gain, with the ex-transportation figure previously at just 0.2% likely to reveal whether core business investment is holding up or if March was an aircraft-driven anomaly.

Exchange-traded funds demonstrated divided positioning in mega-cap technology during the recent period, with 3,538 ETFs adding Microsoft exposure, 3,442 adding Meta Platforms, and 3,393 adding Broadcom, while simultaneously 2,246, 2,012, and 2,005 ETFs respectively reduced these same positions. The flow data reveals institutional rebalancing within software, social media, and semiconductor names rather than a clear directional rotation out of the technology sector.

MSFT Microsoft Corporation ⭐

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D -1.1% 3M -7.6% 1Y +13.9%

3538 ETFs • 0 shares

META Meta Platforms, Inc. ⭐

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D -2.6% 3M +1.8% 1Y +32.0%

3442 ETFs • 0 shares

AVGO Broadcom Inc. ⭐

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +5.4% 3M +29.0% 1Y +148.7%

3393 ETFs • 0 shares

MSFT Microsoft Corporation ⭐

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -1.1% 3M -7.6% 1Y +13.9%

2246 ETFs • 0 shares

META Meta Platforms, Inc. ⭐

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -2.6% 3M +1.8% 1Y +32.0%

2012 ETFs • 0 shares

AVGO Broadcom Inc. ⭐

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +5.4% 3M +29.0% 1Y +148.7%

2005 ETFs • 0 shares

Congressional trading activity shows members purchasing positions in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), Marriott International (MAR), and Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies (WAB). Meanwhile, Representatives exited positions in American Water Works (AWK), Verizon (VZ), and Paychex (PAYX), with Rep. Rick Larsen notably both adding to industrial manufacturing exposure while reducing utility and payroll services holdings.

TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +5.2% 3M +16.8% 1Y +154.4%

Rep. Cleo Fields (Cleo Fields) • $1,001 - $15,000

MAR Marriott International, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +1.6% 3M +14.7% 1Y +68.2%

Rep. W. Gregory Steube (W. Gregory Steube) • $15,001 - $50,000

WAB Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +5.5% 3M +15.5% 1Y +57.5%

Rep. Rick Larsen (Rick Larsen) • $1,001 - $15,000

AWK American Water Works Company, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +3.3% 3M +3.3% 1Y -7.9%

Rep. Rick Larsen (Rick Larsen) • $1,001 - $15,000

VZ Verizon Communications Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +1.0% 3M +19.7% 1Y +13.1%

Rep. Jennifer McClellan (Jennifer McClellan) • $100,001 - $250,000

PAYX Paychex, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

- Selling Falling Stock 5D -1.3% 3M -14.3% 1Y -35.0%

Rep. Rick Larsen (Rick Larsen) • $1,001 - $15,000

Notable cluster activity this week shows 18 insiders accumulated shares of KLRA while 5 insiders added positions in CGON, contrasting with significant distribution at CRWV where 285 insiders collectively sold $1.4 billion in shares. Large-scale coordinated sales also occurred at DELL with 49 insiders offloading $317.7 million and at SMR where 2 insiders divested $309.9 million in holdings.

KLRA Kailera Therapeutics, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

18 insiders • $343.1M

NONE NONE ⭐ INSIDER

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

2 insiders • $61.4M

CGON CG Oncology, Inc. Common stock ⭐ INSIDER

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +5.3% 3M +25.1% 1Y +241.3%

5 insiders • $40.2M

CRWV CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -1.8% 3M +27.9% 1Y +204.9%

285 insiders • $1.4B

DELL Dell Technologies Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +10.2% 3M +81.1% 1Y +154.2%

49 insiders • $317.7M

SMR NuScale Power Corporation ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +11.5% 3M -38.4% 1Y -15.7%

2 insiders • $309.9M

Earnings season continues with 30 companies reporting today, including SCCO and SLB, which have recently shown institutional accumulation patterns, while PG and HCA have exhibited distribution activity ahead of their results. Yesterday's session saw notable moves in MXL, which surged 46.7%, STM up 19.6%, and VC gaining 18.0%. Tomorrow's calendar expands to 65 reports as the quarterly reporting period intensifies.