Know What They Know
π· PIG ROAST
π¬ Word on the Street
While Rep. Robert E. Latta (R-OH) quietly added Farmers & Merchants Bancorp (FMAO) worth up to $15,000 to his portfolio, the real drama played out in the options pits where smart money dumped $4.2 billion in positions against just $627.9 million in purchasesβa $3.6 billion net outflow that screams caution even as Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) rips another 254% and Intel Corporation (INTC) stages its unlikely 242% comeback tour. The VIX jumped 4.1% to 18.9, suggesting someone's getting nervous, but insiders at Crown Electrokinetics (CRWV) apparently didn't need the warningβ430 of them just sold $2.0 billion worth of stock. Here's what smart money is doing today.
The Big Idea: When insiders, institutions, AND politicians all bet on the same stock? That's convergence β and historically, these aligned signals tend to pack more punch than solo moves. We track the smart money so you don't have to.
ETF Institutional funds adding/removing positions
INSIDER Corporate executives buying/selling their own stock
CONGRESS Politicians making trades (yes, we see you)
β² + Buying Rising Stock: Smart money accumulating as price rises β ideal alignment
+ Buying Falling Stock: Smart money accumulating while price drops β falling knife risk
β² - Selling Rising Stock: Smart money exiting while price still rising β warning signal
- Selling Falling Stock: Smart money exiting as price drops β confirms downtrend
The Bottom Line: Convergence + aligned momentum = strongest setups. Convergence + divergent momentum = proceed with caution. This isn't financial advice β it's intelligence. What you do with it is on you.
META
Meta Platforms, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
TTD
The Trade Desk, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
KO
The Coca-Cola Company
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
EMR
Emerson Electric Co.
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
TXN
Texas Instruments Incorporated
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
AXP
American Express Company
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
BK
The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
DIS
The Walt Disney Company
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
LIN
Linde plc
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
CVS
CVS Health Corporation
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
The VIX equity volatility index sits at 18.92, remaining within normal ranges despite a 4.1% weekly increase, suggesting markets are pricing in moderate near-term uncertainty rather than acute stress. Bond market volatility, as measured by the MOVE index at 17.12, remains subdued even with its 4.4% weekly rise, indicating fixed income traders are anticipating relatively stable interest rate conditions. The divergence between equity and bond volatility levels reflects a market environment where stock investors are pricing in somewhat more risk than their bond counterparts, though neither asset class is signaling significant distress.
Market leadership currently shows a risk-on posture with cyclical sectors dominating, as Semiconductors, Financials, and Real Estate lead with strength readings between 81-100%, while defensive sectors including Utilities, Consumer Staples, and Energy lag significantly in the 27-39% range. Breadth readings present a notable divergence, with transportation stocks showing exceptional participation at 86% while the Dow Jones Industrials trail at just 53%, suggesting strength remains concentrated in specific pockets rather than broadly distributed across blue-chip names. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are tracking closer together near 60-62%, indicating moderate but not overwhelming participation in the current advance.
As of April 22, Fed net liquidity stands at $6.71 trillion, up $1.7 billion from the prior week, indicating a marginal increase in system-wide liquidity that historically correlates with supportive conditions for risk assets. The next H.4.1 report releases Thursday, April 30, which will show whether this liquidity expansion continues or reverses.
Yesterday's Michigan survey delivered a troubling split as one-year inflation expectations surged to 4.7% from 3.8% previouslyβthe highest reading since November 2023 and well above the 4.8% estimateβwhile consumer sentiment at 49.8 beat the 47.6 estimate but remained near multi-year lows in a continuation of the sharp deterioration from March's 53.3. The inflation expectations jump of nearly a full percentage point represents the largest monthly increase since June 2022 when tariff and trade war concerns were absent, suggesting sticky price pressures are becoming more embedded in consumer psychology even as sentiment remains deeply pessimistic. Meanwhile, CFTC positioning data showed speculators reduced bearish S&P 500 bets to -110.1K from -115.8K and trimmed Nasdaq 100 longs to 9.4K from 10.8K, reflecting continued caution in equity exposure, while traders lightened crude oil positions to 192.3K from 206.5K amid demand uncertainty. Today's Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index and tomorrow's Case-Shiller home prices are unlikely to move markets significantly, but Tuesday's Conference Board Consumer Confidence (expected to fall to 89.4 from 91.8) will be closely watched for confirmation of the Michigan sentiment deterioration and any further inflation expectation warnings.
# Institutional Flow Summary Recent ETF positioning data reveals a pronounced technology sector rotation, with AVGO, MSFT, and META experiencing the highest bidirectional flow as 4,389, 4,304, and 4,286 funds added positions respectively, while simultaneously 2,873, 2,604, and 2,521 funds reduced exposure to these same names. The balanced 10-to-10 ratio of ETFs adding versus removing positions across the board suggests institutional rebalancing within mega-cap technology holdings rather than broad sector abandonment, with semiconductor and software infrastructure names seeing the most active repositioning.
AVGO
Broadcom Inc.
β
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
β
META
Meta Platforms, Inc.
β
MU
Micron Technology, Inc.
β
INTC
Intel Corporation
β
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
β
AVGO
Broadcom Inc.
β
META
Meta Platforms, Inc.
β
HD
The Home Depot, Inc.
β
WMT
Walmart Inc.
β
Congressional trading activity shows members purchased shares of Farmers & Merchants Bancorp (FMAO), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), and Marriott International (MAR) during the recent filing period. Meanwhile, other representatives reduced positions in American Water Works (AWK), American Express (AXP), and Verizon (VZ), with Rep. Rick Larsen accounting for two of the three reported sales.
FMAO
Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
β
CONGRESS
MAR
Marriott International, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
WAB
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation
β
CONGRESS
CASY
Casey's General Stores, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
AWK
American Water Works Company, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
AXP
American Express Company
β
CONGRESS
VZ
Verizon Communications Inc.
β
CONGRESS
BR
Broadridge Financial Solutions, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
PAYX
Paychex, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
Corporate insiders at KLRA showed coordinated accumulation with 18 individuals purchasing shares, while CGON recorded 5 insider purchases and NONE had 2 insiders adding positions during the period. On the distribution side, CRWV experienced the most significant cluster activity with 430 insiders collectively offloading $2.0B in stock, followed by DELL where 49 insiders sold $317.7M in shares and RDW with 8 insiders selling $341.8M.
KLRA
Kailera Therapeutics, Inc.
β
INSIDER
NONE
NONE
β
INSIDER
CGON
CG Oncology, Inc. Common stock
β
INSIDER
PRLD
Prelude Therapeutics Incorporated
β
INSIDER
ANAB
AnaptysBio, Inc.
β
INSIDER
CRWV
CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock
β
INSIDER
RDW
Redwire Corporation
β
INSIDER
DELL
Dell Technologies Inc.
β
INSIDER
SMR
NuScale Power Corporation
β
INSIDER
ASX
ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd.
β
INSIDER
Looking at today's 70 earnings reports, Cadence Design Systems and Public Storage are showing institutional accumulation heading into their prints, while Verizon and Domino's Pizza face distribution pressure from recent selling activity. Tomorrow's larger slate of 166 reports will provide broader insight into how institutional money managers are positioning across sectors. Yesterday's session saw notable moves with LPL Financial dropping 12.3% while Norfolk Southern and Schlumberger each gained over 5%.
LPL
LG Display Co., Ltd.
β
MISS
-12.3%
NSC
Norfolk Southern Corporation
β
BEAT
+6.2%
SLB
SLB N.V.
β
BEAT
+5.9%
GNTX
Gentex Corporation
β
BEAT
+5.5%
SXT
Sensient Technologies Corporation
β
BEAT
+4.2%
NMR
Nomura Holdings, Inc.
β
MISS
-4.2%
FHB
First Hawaiian, Inc.
β
BEAT
+2.8%
MOG-A
Moog Inc.
β
BEAT
-2.5%
CHTR
Charter Communications, Inc.
β
MISS
+2.5%
WF
Woori Financial Group Inc.
β
MISS
-2.2%
CDNS
Cadence Design Systems, Inc.
β
PSA
Public Storage
β
NUE
Nucor Corporation
β
PSA-PK
Public Storage
β
CLS
Celestica Inc.
β
CINF
Cincinnati Financial Corporation
β
AVB
AvalonBay Communities, Inc.
β
AMKR
Amkor Technology, Inc.
β
RMBS
Rambus Inc.
β
PAC
Grupo Aeroportuario del PacΓfico, S.A.B. de C.V.
β
TFII
TFI International Inc.
β
SANM
Sanmina Corporation
β
BRX
Brixmor Property Group Inc.
β
GGB
Gerdau S.A.
β
WRB-PE
W. R. Berkley Corporation 5.70% SB DB 2058
β
GLW
Corning Incorporated
β
WELL
Welltower Inc.
β
SPGI
S&P Global Inc.
β
STX
Seagate Technology Holdings plc
β
BP
BP p.l.c.
β
SBUX
Starbucks Corporation
β
SPOT
Spotify Technology S.A.
β
UPS
United Parcel Service, Inc.
β
SHW
The Sherwin-Williams Company
β
BCS
Barclays PLC
β
Smart money flows are painting a picture of selective technology rebalancing rather than wholesale sector abandonment, as institutional ETF activity shows 4,389 funds adding Broadcom while 2,873 simultaneously reduced exposure, with similar bidirectional patterns appearing in Microsoft (4,304 adds versus 2,604 removes) and Meta Platforms (4,286 adds versus 2,521 removes). The balanced 10-to-10 ratio of ETFs adding versus removing positions suggests portfolio managers are adjusting weightings within mega-cap technology rather than fleeing the sector entirely. Corporate insiders at KLRA demonstrated confidence with 18 individuals purchasing shares, while CRWV saw the most significant distribution as 430 insiders collectively offloaded $2.0 billion in stock, followed by Dell Technologies where 49 insiders sold $317.7 million. Congressional activity included purchases of Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Taiwan Semiconductor, and Marriott International, while Rep. Rick Larsen accounted for two of three reported sales that included American Water Works, American Express, and Verizon. Market leadership reflects a risk-on posture despite emerging headwinds, with cyclical sectors including Semiconductors, Financials, and Real Estate posting strength readings between 81-100% while defensive sectors like Utilities, Consumer Staples, and Energy lag in the 27-39% range. The VIX equity volatility index at 18.92 remains within normal ranges despite a 4.1% weekly increase, while bond market volatility measured by the MOVE index at 17.12 stays subdued even with a 4.4% weekly rise, suggesting fixed income traders are anticipating relatively stable interest rate conditions. Breadth presents a notable divergence as transportation stocks show exceptional participation at 86% while the Dow Jones Industrials trail at just 53%, indicating strength remains concentrated in specific pockets rather than broadly distributed across blue-chip names, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 tracking closer together near 60-62%. The inflation expectations landscape demands immediate attention after yesterday's Michigan survey showed one-year inflation expectations surging to 4.7% from 3.8%βthe highest reading since November 2023 and the largest monthly increase since June 2022βwhile consumer sentiment at 49.8 remained near multi-year lows despite beating the 47.6 estimate. This jump of nearly a full percentage point suggests sticky price pressures are becoming more embedded in consumer psychology, creating a challenging backdrop for Tuesday's Conference Board Consumer Confidence reading expected to fall to 89.4 from 91.8. Today's slate of 70 earnings reports includes Cadence Design Systems and Public Storage showing institutional accumulation heading into their prints, while Verizon and Domino's Pizza face distribution pressure, with tomorrow's larger batch of 166 reports providing broader insight into how institutional managers are positioning across sectors as accumulation signals sit at 30 with top names including Meta Platforms, The Trade Desk, and Coca-Cola.
Key themes: Watch convergence signals closely. Stocks where insiders, institutions, and politicians agree tend to show stronger directional moves.