Know What They Know
π· PIG ROAST
π¬ Word on the Street
While Rep. Robert E. Latta (R-OH) quietly picked up shares of Farmers & Merchants Bancorp (FMAO) for up to $15,000, a staggering 370 insiders at Crown Electrokinetics (CRWV) hit the exit button to the tune of $1.9 billionβthe kind of mass exodus that makes you wonder what they saw in the quarterly projections. Meanwhile, the VIX jumped 7% to 18.7 as smart money dumped $3.4 billion more than they bought, and after-hours action brought us a birth control company acquisition, a psoriasis drug maker up 627% in a year adding another 10%, and a steel stock finally getting some reassessment love. Here's what smart money is doing today.
The Big Idea: When insiders, institutions, AND politicians all bet on the same stock? That's convergence β and historically, these aligned signals tend to pack more punch than solo moves. We track the smart money so you don't have to.
ETF Institutional funds adding/removing positions
INSIDER Corporate executives buying/selling their own stock
CONGRESS Politicians making trades (yes, we see you)
β² + Buying Rising Stock: Smart money accumulating as price rises β ideal alignment
+ Buying Falling Stock: Smart money accumulating while price drops β falling knife risk
β² - Selling Rising Stock: Smart money exiting while price still rising β warning signal
- Selling Falling Stock: Smart money exiting as price drops β confirms downtrend
The Bottom Line: Convergence + aligned momentum = strongest setups. Convergence + divergent momentum = proceed with caution. This isn't financial advice β it's intelligence. What you do with it is on you.
META
Meta Platforms, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
TTD
The Trade Desk, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
KO
The Coca-Cola Company
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
EMR
Emerson Electric Co.
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
TXN
Texas Instruments Incorporated
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
AXP
American Express Company
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
ABT
Abbott Laboratories
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
BK
The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
DIS
The Walt Disney Company
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
LIN
Linde plc
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
The VIX rose 7.0% week-over-week to 18.71, remaining within the normal range that suggests neither complacency nor elevated concern among equity options traders. Bond market volatility, as measured by the MOVE index at 17.94, increased 6.4% but stays at historically low levels, indicating fixed income markets are pricing in relatively stable conditions despite the modest uptick in both measures.
Market breadth shows moderate participation with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq at 60% while the Dow trails at 53%, though transports demonstrate strength at 84%. Cyclical sectors are leading with semiconductors, financials, and real estate showing the strongest performance, while defensive areas including healthcare, energy, and consumer staples are underperforming. The divergence between transport strength and broader Dow weakness, combined with leadership in rate-sensitive sectors like real estate and semiconductors, suggests a risk-on environment with selective sector rotation rather than broad market conviction.
As of April 22, Fed net liquidity stood at $6.71 trillion, increasing $1.7 billion week-over-weekβa marginal uptick that suggests stable liquidity conditions with neither significant tightening nor easing pressure on markets. The next H.4.1 release drops Thursday, April 30, which will show whether this sideways trend continues or if the Fed's balance sheet activity shifts direction.
Yesterday's Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index deteriorated to -2.3, missing the -0.8 estimate and marking a reversal from the -0.2 prior reading, extending the index's negative streak and signaling continued weakness in Texas factory activity even as the national ISM data had shown tentative stabilization. Today's focus shifts to housing with Case-Shiller home prices expected to decelerate slightly to 1.1% year-over-year and Consumer Confidence projected to slip to 89.0 from 91.8, which would mark the fourth consecutive monthly decline and the lowest reading since August 2023. Tomorrow brings a barrage of housing data where consensus expects Building Permits to edge down to 1.39M and Housing Starts to fall sharply to 1.4M from 1.487M, while the marquee event is the FOMC decision where markets are pricing in a 25 basis point cut to 3.75% with traders closely watching the dot plot projections and Powell's press conference for signals on the rate path amid persistent inflation concerns.
## Institutional Flow Summary ETFs displayed conflicting positioning across mega-cap technology names this period, with AVGO, MSFT, and META simultaneously seeing the highest addition counts (3,611, 3,391, and 3,272 funds respectively) and highest removal counts (2,325, 2,249, and 2,096 funds respectively). The balanced 10-to-10 add/remove ratio across the broader market suggests institutional indecision within the technology sector, as funds repositioned around semiconductor and software infrastructure plays while maintaining overall neutral net exposure.
AVGO
Broadcom Inc.
β
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
β
META
Meta Platforms, Inc.
β
MU
Micron Technology, Inc.
β
INTC
Intel Corporation
β
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
β
AVGO
Broadcom Inc.
β
META
Meta Platforms, Inc.
β
HD
The Home Depot, Inc.
β
TXN
Texas Instruments Incorporated
β
Congressional trading activity shows members purchasing positions in Farmers & Merchants Bancorp (FMAO), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), and Marriott International (MAR), while reducing holdings in Broadridge Financial Solutions (BR), American Express (AXP), and Verizon (VZ). The activity reflects a pattern of lawmakers rotating out of financial services and telecommunications stocks while adding exposure to regional banking, semiconductor manufacturing, and hospitality sectors.
FMAO
Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
β
CONGRESS
MAR
Marriott International, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
CARR
Carrier Global Corporation
β
CONGRESS
CASY
Casey's General Stores, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
BR
Broadridge Financial Solutions, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
AXP
American Express Company
β
CONGRESS
VZ
Verizon Communications Inc.
β
CONGRESS
PAYX
Paychex, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
AWK
American Water Works Company, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
Corporate insiders at KLRA executed 18 coordinated purchases while CRWV recorded the most significant cluster activity with 370 insiders collectively offloading $1.9 billion in shares. Notable distribution also occurred at DELL where 49 insiders reduced positions totaling $317.7 million and at RDW where 7 insiders sold $334.0 million in aggregate.
KLRA
Kailera Therapeutics, Inc.
β
INSIDER
NONE
NONE
β
INSIDER
CGON
CG Oncology, Inc. Common stock
β
INSIDER
PRLD
Prelude Therapeutics Incorporated
β
INSIDER
ANAB
AnaptysBio, Inc.
β
INSIDER
CRWV
CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock
β
INSIDER
RDW
Redwire Corporation
β
INSIDER
DELL
Dell Technologies Inc.
β
INSIDER
SMR
NuScale Power Corporation
β
INSIDER
ASX
ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd.
β
INSIDER
Earnings season continues with 170 companies reporting today, including WELL and GLW where institutional activity shows recent accumulation patterns, and KO and NVS where smart money has been reducing positions. Tomorrow's slate expands to 263 reports as the quarterly cycle intensifies. Yesterday's session saw RMBS and CTOS surge over 11% while DPZ dropped 9.2% in post-earnings trading.
RMBS
Rambus Inc.
β
BEAT
+11.3%
CTOS
Custom Truck One Source, Inc.
β
BEAT
+11.2%
DPZ
Domino's Pizza, Inc.
β
MISS
-9.2%
SEI
Solaris Energy Infrastructure, Inc.
β
MISS
+9.0%
AMKR
Amkor Technology, Inc.
β
BEAT
+8.9%
NOV
NOV Inc.
β
MISS
+8.8%
SANM
Sanmina Corporation
β
BEAT
+7.2%
ARE
Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc.
β
BEAT
-7.0%
NUE
Nucor Corporation
β
BEAT
+6.3%
CDNS
Cadence Design Systems, Inc.
β
BEAT
+5.7%
WELL
Welltower Inc.
β
GLW
Corning Incorporated
β
SPGI
S&P Global Inc.
β
STX
Seagate Technology Holdings plc
β
BP
BP p.l.c.
β
SBUX
Starbucks Corporation
β
SPOT
Spotify Technology S.A.
β
UPS
United Parcel Service, Inc.
β
SHW
The Sherwin-Williams Company
β
BCS
Barclays PLC
β
HLT
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.
β
HOOD
Robinhood Markets, Inc.
β
VALE
Vale S.A.
β
GM
General Motors Company
β
PCAR
PACCAR Inc
β
GOOGL
Alphabet Inc.
β
GOOG
Alphabet Inc.
β
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
β
AMZN
Amazon.com, Inc.
β
META
Meta Platforms, Inc.
β
KLAC
KLA Corporation
β
TTE
TotalEnergies SE
β
APH
Amphenol Corporation
β
SAN
Banco Santander, S.A.
β
QCOM
QUALCOMM Incorporated
β
Smart money positioning reveals divergent signals across institutional, congressional, and insider channels as earnings season intensifies with 170 companies reporting today and 263 scheduled for tomorrow. ETF flows show institutional indecision concentrated in mega-cap technology, with Broadcom (AVGO), Microsoft (MSFT), and Meta Platforms (META) simultaneously appearing among both the highest additions and removals as 3,611 and 3,391 and 3,272 funds added these positions respectively while 2,325 and 2,249 and 2,096 funds removed them. Congressional members purchased Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), Farmers & Merchants Bancorp (FMAO), and Marriott International (MAR) while selling Broadridge Financial Solutions (BR), American Express (AXP), and Verizon (VZ), rotating out of financial services and telecommunications into semiconductors, regional banking, and hospitality. Corporate insiders at KLRA executed 18 coordinated purchases, while significant distribution occurred at CRWV where 370 insiders offloaded $1.9 billion, at Dell Technologies (DELL) where 49 insiders sold $317.7 million, and at Redwire Corporation (RDW) where 7 insiders reduced holdings by $334.0 million. Market conditions reflect a risk-on environment with selective sector rotation rather than broad conviction, evidenced by moderate breadth readings showing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq at 60% participation while the Dow lags at 53% despite transports demonstrating strength at 84%. Cyclical sectors are leading with semiconductors, financials, and real estate posting the strongest performance while defensive areas including healthcare, energy, and consumer staples underperform. The VIX rose 7.0% week-over-week to 18.71, remaining within normal ranges, while the MOVE index at 17.94 increased 6.4% but stays at historically low levels, suggesting both equity and fixed income markets are pricing relatively stable conditions. The divergence between transport strength and broader Dow weakness combined with leadership in rate-sensitive sectors like real estate and semiconductors indicates selective positioning ahead of major catalysts. Attention turns to tomorrow's Federal Reserve decision where markets are pricing in a 25 basis point cut to 3.75%, with traders focusing on dot plot projections and Chair Powell's press conference for signals on the rate path amid persistent inflation concerns. Today's economic calendar features Case-Shiller home prices expected to decelerate to 1.1% year-over-year and Consumer Confidence projected to slip to 89.0 from 91.8, which would mark the fourth consecutive monthly decline and the lowest reading since August 2023, following yesterday's Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index miss at -2.3 versus the -0.8 estimate. Tomorrow's housing data includes Building Permits expected to edge down to 1.39M and Housing Starts projected to fall sharply to 1.4M from 1.487M. Earnings reports today include Welltower (WELL) and Corning (GLW) where institutions have recently accumulated, and Coca-
Key themes: Watch convergence signals closely. Stocks where insiders, institutions, and politicians agree tend to show stronger directional moves.