The Edge

🐷 PIG ROAST

💬 Word on the Street

While Rep. Robert E. Latta (R-OH) quietly picked up shares of Farmers & Merchants Bancorp (FMAO) for up to $15,000, a staggering 370 insiders at Crown Electrokinetics (CRWV) hit the exit button to the tune of $1.9 billion—the kind of mass exodus that makes you wonder what they saw in the quarterly projections. Meanwhile, the VIX jumped 7% to 18.7 as smart money dumped $3.4 billion more than they bought, and after-hours action brought us a birth control company acquisition, a psoriasis drug maker up 627% in a year adding another 10%, and a steel stock finally getting some reassessment love. Here's what smart money is doing today.

The VIX rose 7.0% week-over-week to 18.71, remaining within the normal range that suggests neither complacency nor elevated concern among equity options traders. Bond market volatility, as measured by the MOVE index at 17.94, increased 6.4% but stays at historically low levels, indicating fixed income markets are pricing in relatively stable conditions despite the modest uptick in both measures.

Market breadth shows moderate participation with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq at 60% while the Dow trails at 53%, though transports demonstrate strength at 84%. Cyclical sectors are leading with semiconductors, financials, and real estate showing the strongest performance, while defensive areas including healthcare, energy, and consumer staples are underperforming. The divergence between transport strength and broader Dow weakness, combined with leadership in rate-sensitive sectors like real estate and semiconductors, suggests a risk-on environment with selective sector rotation rather than broad market conviction.

As of April 22, Fed net liquidity stood at $6.71 trillion, increasing $1.7 billion week-over-week—a marginal uptick that suggests stable liquidity conditions with neither significant tightening nor easing pressure on markets. The next H.4.1 release drops Thursday, April 30, which will show whether this sideways trend continues or if the Fed's balance sheet activity shifts direction.

Yesterday's Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index deteriorated to -2.3, missing the -0.8 estimate and marking a reversal from the -0.2 prior reading, extending the index's negative streak and signaling continued weakness in Texas factory activity even as the national ISM data had shown tentative stabilization. Today's focus shifts to housing with Case-Shiller home prices expected to decelerate slightly to 1.1% year-over-year and Consumer Confidence projected to slip to 89.0 from 91.8, which would mark the fourth consecutive monthly decline and the lowest reading since August 2023. Tomorrow brings a barrage of housing data where consensus expects Building Permits to edge down to 1.39M and Housing Starts to fall sharply to 1.4M from 1.487M, while the marquee event is the FOMC decision where markets are pricing in a 25 basis point cut to 3.75% with traders closely watching the dot plot projections and Powell's press conference for signals on the rate path amid persistent inflation concerns.

## Institutional Flow Summary ETFs displayed conflicting positioning across mega-cap technology names this period, with AVGO, MSFT, and META simultaneously seeing the highest addition counts (3,611, 3,391, and 3,272 funds respectively) and highest removal counts (2,325, 2,249, and 2,096 funds respectively). The balanced 10-to-10 add/remove ratio across the broader market suggests institutional indecision within the technology sector, as funds repositioned around semiconductor and software infrastructure plays while maintaining overall neutral net exposure.

AVGO Broadcom Inc. ⭐

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +4.7% 3M +28.7% 1Y +123.2%

3611 ETFs • 0 shares

MSFT Microsoft Corporation ⭐

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +1.6% 3M -9.5% 1Y +10.3%

3391 ETFs • 0 shares

META Meta Platforms, Inc. ⭐

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +1.1% 3M +0.9% 1Y +27.6%

3272 ETFs • 0 shares

MSFT Microsoft Corporation ⭐

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +1.6% 3M -9.5% 1Y +10.3%

2325 ETFs • 0 shares

AVGO Broadcom Inc. ⭐

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +4.7% 3M +28.7% 1Y +123.2%

2249 ETFs • 0 shares

META Meta Platforms, Inc. ⭐

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +1.1% 3M +0.9% 1Y +27.6%

2096 ETFs • 0 shares

Congressional trading activity shows members purchasing positions in Farmers & Merchants Bancorp (FMAO), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), and Marriott International (MAR), while reducing holdings in Broadridge Financial Solutions (BR), American Express (AXP), and Verizon (VZ). The activity reflects a pattern of lawmakers rotating out of financial services and telecommunications stocks while adding exposure to regional banking, semiconductor manufacturing, and hospitality sectors.

FMAO Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +1.0% 3M +5.1% 1Y +20.4%

Rep. Robert E. Latta (Robert E. Latta) • $1,001 - $15,000

TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +10.6% 3M +21.7% 1Y +148.4%

Rep. Cleo Fields (Cleo Fields) • $1,001 - $15,000

MAR Marriott International, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D -4.8% 3M +14.1% 1Y +53.8%

Rep. W. Gregory Steube (W. Gregory Steube) • $15,001 - $50,000

BR Broadridge Financial Solutions, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

- Selling Falling Stock 5D -3.0% 3M -25.1% 1Y -33.5%

Rep. Rick Larsen (Rick Larsen) • $1,001 - $15,000

AXP American Express Company ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -3.3% 3M -12.2% 1Y +19.9%

Rep. Rick Larsen (Rick Larsen) • $1,001 - $15,000

VZ Verizon Communications Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +1.4% 3M +18.9% 1Y +13.7%

Rep. Jennifer McClellan (Jennifer McClellan) • $100,001 - $250,000

Corporate insiders at KLRA executed 18 coordinated purchases while CRWV recorded the most significant cluster activity with 370 insiders collectively offloading $1.9 billion in shares. Notable distribution also occurred at DELL where 49 insiders reduced positions totaling $317.7 million and at RDW where 7 insiders sold $334.0 million in aggregate.

KLRA Kailera Therapeutics, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D -4.5%

18 insiders • $343.1M

NONE NONE ⭐ INSIDER

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

2 insiders • $61.4M

CGON CG Oncology, Inc. Common stock ⭐ INSIDER

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D -5.1% 3M +25.4% 1Y +210.5%

5 insiders • $40.2M

CRWV CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -4.6% 3M +14.0% 1Y +168.3%

370 insiders • $1.9B

RDW Redwire Corporation ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -8.7% 3M -15.0% 1Y -15.0%

7 insiders • $334.0M

DELL Dell Technologies Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +6.0% 3M +86.1% 1Y +130.3%

49 insiders • $317.7M

Earnings season continues with 170 companies reporting today, including WELL and GLW where institutional activity shows recent accumulation patterns, and KO and NVS where smart money has been reducing positions. Tomorrow's slate expands to 263 reports as the quarterly cycle intensifies. Yesterday's session saw RMBS and CTOS surge over 11% while DPZ dropped 9.2% in post-earnings trading.