Know What They Know
π· PIG ROAST
π¬ Word on the Street
While Rep. Robert E. Latta (R-OH) quietly picked up shares of Farmers & Merchants Bancorp (FMAO) in the $1,001-$15,000 range, the real action was corporate insiders stampeding for the exits with $5.4 billion in sales against just $990.7 million in purchasesβa $4.4 billion net outflow that suggests the smart money might be cashing chips after this rally. Meanwhile, volatility cooled with the VIX dropping 4.5% to 18.0, even as aftermarket headlines screamed about a biotech up 273% with zero revenue and earnings beats that have analysts suddenly forgetting last quarter's pessimism. Here's what smart money is doing today.
The Big Idea: When insiders, institutions, AND politicians all bet on the same stock? That's convergence β and historically, these aligned signals tend to pack more punch than solo moves. We track the smart money so you don't have to.
ETF Institutional funds adding/removing positions
INSIDER Corporate executives buying/selling their own stock
CONGRESS Politicians making trades (yes, we see you)
β² + Buying Rising Stock: Smart money accumulating as price rises β ideal alignment
+ Buying Falling Stock: Smart money accumulating while price drops β falling knife risk
β² - Selling Rising Stock: Smart money exiting while price still rising β warning signal
- Selling Falling Stock: Smart money exiting as price drops β confirms downtrend
The Bottom Line: Convergence + aligned momentum = strongest setups. Convergence + divergent momentum = proceed with caution. This isn't financial advice β it's intelligence. What you do with it is on you.
META
Meta Platforms, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
EQT
EQT Corporation
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
TTD
The Trade Desk, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
KO
The Coca-Cola Company
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
EMR
Emerson Electric Co.
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
TXN
Texas Instruments Incorporated
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
ABT
Abbott Laboratories
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
AXP
American Express Company
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
BK
The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
DIS
The Walt Disney Company
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
The VIX declined 4.5% over the past week to settle at 18.02, remaining within the normal range that suggests neither extreme complacency nor elevated fear in equity markets. Meanwhile, the MOVE index, which measures bond market volatility expectations, increased 2.6% to 17.44 and remains at historically low levels, indicating relatively calm conditions in fixed income markets. This divergence shows equity volatility easing while bond volatility ticked modestly higher, though both indices continue to reflect broadly stable market conditions.
Market participation shows a technology-driven advance with semiconductors leading all sectors at full strength while defensive areas like healthcare and consumer staples lag significantly in the bottom third of performance. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are advancing on moderate breadth around 60%, though a notable divergence exists with transports showing substantially stronger 84% participation while the Dow industrials register the weakest breadth at 53%. This configuration reflects selective strength concentrated in growth-oriented technology and rate-sensitive real estate and financials, while energy and defensive sectors remain under distributional pressure.
As of April 22, Fed net liquidity stands at $6.71 trillion, up $1.7 billion from the prior week, indicating a marginal increase in system-wide dollar availability that historically correlates with supportive conditions for risk assets. The next H.4.1 report releases Thursday, April 30, which will show whether this liquidity expansion continues or reverses.
Yesterday's economic data painted a mixed picture as home price growth decelerated to 0.9% year-over-year in February, missing estimates of 1.1% and marking the slowest pace since 2012, while consumer confidence unexpectedly jumped to 92.8 in April from 92.2, beating the 89.0 estimate by 3.8 pointsβthe largest upside surprise in five months. Crude oil inventories fell by 1.79 million barrels according to API data, significantly less than the expected 0.3 million build, suggesting tighter supply conditions than traders anticipated. Today's focus shifts to housing activity with starts expected to decline 5.2% month-over-month and building permits projected down 0.7%, alongside core durable goods orders estimated at 0.4% growth, while tomorrow brings the heavyweight Fed interest rate decision where policymakers are expected to hold rates steady at 3.75% amid updated economic projections, followed by Friday's critical PCE inflation data forecast at 3.5% year-over-yearβa substantial acceleration from 2.8% that would mark the highest reading since October 2023.
ETFs demonstrated mixed positioning in mega-cap technology stocks during the period, with 3,611 funds adding Broadcom (semiconductors), 3,391 adding Microsoft (software), and 3,272 adding Meta (internet), while comparable numbers reduced these same positions. The equal 10-to-10 split in net additions versus removals suggests institutions are rebalancing within big tech rather than rotating out of the sector entirely.
AVGO
Broadcom Inc.
β
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
β
META
Meta Platforms, Inc.
β
MU
Micron Technology, Inc.
β
INTC
Intel Corporation
β
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
β
AVGO
Broadcom Inc.
β
META
Meta Platforms, Inc.
β
HD
The Home Depot, Inc.
β
TXN
Texas Instruments Incorporated
β
Rep. Robert E. Latta purchased shares of FMAO across three reported transactions, while selling activity was dispersed across different members and sectors. Rep. Rick Larsen reduced positions in both AWK and BR, and Rep. Jennifer McClellan sold VZ, with no clear sector concentration emerging from the reported sales.
FMAO
Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
FMAO
Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
FMAO
Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
β
CONGRESS
MAR
Marriott International, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
AWK
American Water Works Company, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
BR
Broadridge Financial Solutions, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
VZ
Verizon Communications Inc.
β
CONGRESS
AXP
American Express Company
β
CONGRESS
PAYX
Paychex, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
Large-scale insider activity this period shows concentrated selling at CRWV where 358 insiders liquidated $1.8 billion in positions and CAR where 175 insiders sold $1.8 billion, while on the buying side, EQT saw 24 insiders add positions and KLRA recorded purchases from 18 insiders. The week's activity resulted in balanced signals with 15 accumulation indicators offsetting 15 distribution indicators across tracked companies.
EQT
EQT Corporation
β
INSIDER
KLRA
Kailera Therapeutics, Inc.
β
INSIDER
NONE
NONE
β
INSIDER
CGON
CG Oncology, Inc. Common stock
β
INSIDER
PRLD
Prelude Therapeutics Incorporated
β
INSIDER
CRWV
CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock
β
INSIDER
CAR
Avis Budget Group, Inc.
β
INSIDER
RDW
Redwire Corporation
β
INSIDER
DELL
Dell Technologies Inc.
β
INSIDER
SMR
NuScale Power Corporation
β
INSIDER
Yesterday saw sharp moves with KNSA surging 26.9% and SRAD declining 26.7%, while CNC gained 26.6%. Today's earnings calendar features 267 companies, with GOOGL and GOOG showing recent accumulation patterns and ABBV and AZN displaying distribution signals heading into their reports. Another 263 companies are scheduled to report tomorrow.
KNSA
Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals, Ltd.
β
BEAT
+26.9%
SRAD
Sportradar Group AG
β
MISS
-26.7%
CNC
Centene Corporation
β
BEAT
+26.6%
HRI
Herc Holdings Inc.
β
BEAT
+24.7%
OMCL
Omnicell, Inc.
β
BEAT
+23.8%
WSO-B
Watsco, Inc.
β
BEAT
+22.2%
CECO
CECO Environmental Corp.
β
BEAT
+20.9%
SPOT
Spotify Technology S.A.
β
BEAT
-17.0%
AXGN
AxoGen, Inc.
β
MISS
+16.9%
NBR
Nabors Industries Ltd.
β
MISS
+13.2%
GOOGL
Alphabet Inc.
β
GOOG
Alphabet Inc.
β
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
β
AMZN
Amazon.com, Inc.
β
META
Meta Platforms, Inc.
β
KLAC
KLA Corporation
β
TTE
TotalEnergies SE
β
SAN
Banco Santander, S.A.
β
APH
Amphenol Corporation
β
QCOM
QUALCOMM Incorporated
β
UBS
UBS Group AG
β
EQIX
Equinix, Inc.
β
CVNA
Carvana Co.
β
F-PD
Ford Motor Company 6.500% Notes
β
LYG
Lloyds Banking Group plc
β
AAPL
Apple Inc.
β
CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
β
SNDK
Sandisk Corporation
β
WDC
Western Digital Corporation
β
PH
Parker-Hannifin Corporation
β
TT
Trane Technologies plc
β
PWR
Quanta Services, Inc.
β
ING
ING Groep N.V.
β
CRH
CRH plc
β
CI
Cigna Corporation
β
Smart money flows reveal divergent signals across participant classes as institutional investors rebalance rather than rotate within mega-cap technology, with 3,611 ETFs adding Broadcom while 3,391 added Microsoft and 3,272 added Metaβmatched by nearly equal numbers reducing these same positions in a 10-to-10 split that suggests portfolio adjustments rather than conviction shifts. Corporate insiders demonstrated balanced activity with 15 accumulation signals offsetting 15 distribution signals, though concentrated liquidations at CRWV where 358 insiders sold $1.8 billion and CAR where 175 insiders sold $1.8 billion stand in contrast to buying interest at EQT with 24 insiders adding positions and KLRA recording 18 insider purchases. Congressional activity remained light and dispersed, with Rep. Robert E. Latta purchasing FMAO across three transactions while Rep. Rick Larsen reduced positions in both AWK and BR and Rep. Jennifer McClellan sold VZ, offering no clear directional bias. Market structure reflects a technology-driven advance on moderate breadth as the VIX declined 4.5% to settle at 18.02, indicating neither extreme complacency nor elevated fear, while the MOVE index measuring bond volatility increased 2.6% to 17.44 yet remains at historically low levels that confirm broadly stable conditions across asset classes. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are advancing on 60% breadth with semiconductors leading at full strength, though a notable divergence emerges as transports register substantially stronger 84% participation while the Dow industrials show the weakest breadth at 53%. This configuration reveals selective strength concentrated in growth-oriented technology alongside rate-sensitive real estate and financials, while defensive areas including healthcare and consumer staples lag significantly and energy remains under distributional pressure. Tomorrow's Fed interest rate decision dominates the near-term catalyst landscape as policymakers are expected to hold rates steady at 3.75% while delivering updated economic projections, followed by Friday's PCE inflation data forecast at 3.5% year-over-yearβa substantial acceleration from 2.8% that would mark the highest reading since October 2023 if realized. Today's earnings calendar features 267 companies including GOOGL and GOOG showing recent accumulation patterns and ABBV and AZN displaying distribution signals heading into their reports, with another 263 companies scheduled to report tomorrow, while yesterday's economic data painted contrasting pictures as home price growth decelerated to 0.9% year-over-year and missed estimates yet consumer confidence unexpectedly jumped to 92.8 and beat expectations by 3.8 points. Accumulation signals currently outnumber distribution signals 30 to 0 with META, EQT, and TTD leading the accumulation list, though SPY strength registers a moderate 59.4% as the market awaits policy clarity and inflation confirmation.
Key themes: Watch convergence signals closely. Stocks where insiders, institutions, and politicians agree tend to show stronger directional moves.