The Edge

🐷 PIG ROAST

💬 Word on the Street

While Rep. Robert E. Latta (R-OH) quietly picked up shares of Farmers & Merchants Bancorp (FMAO) in the $1,001-$15,000 range, the real action was corporate insiders stampeding for the exits with $5.4 billion in sales against just $990.7 million in purchases—a $4.4 billion net outflow that suggests the smart money might be cashing chips after this rally. Meanwhile, volatility cooled with the VIX dropping 4.5% to 18.0, even as aftermarket headlines screamed about a biotech up 273% with zero revenue and earnings beats that have analysts suddenly forgetting last quarter's pessimism. Here's what smart money is doing today.

The VIX declined 4.5% over the past week to settle at 18.02, remaining within the normal range that suggests neither extreme complacency nor elevated fear in equity markets. Meanwhile, the MOVE index, which measures bond market volatility expectations, increased 2.6% to 17.44 and remains at historically low levels, indicating relatively calm conditions in fixed income markets. This divergence shows equity volatility easing while bond volatility ticked modestly higher, though both indices continue to reflect broadly stable market conditions.

Market participation shows a technology-driven advance with semiconductors leading all sectors at full strength while defensive areas like healthcare and consumer staples lag significantly in the bottom third of performance. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are advancing on moderate breadth around 60%, though a notable divergence exists with transports showing substantially stronger 84% participation while the Dow industrials register the weakest breadth at 53%. This configuration reflects selective strength concentrated in growth-oriented technology and rate-sensitive real estate and financials, while energy and defensive sectors remain under distributional pressure.

As of April 22, Fed net liquidity stands at $6.71 trillion, up $1.7 billion from the prior week, indicating a marginal increase in system-wide dollar availability that historically correlates with supportive conditions for risk assets. The next H.4.1 report releases Thursday, April 30, which will show whether this liquidity expansion continues or reverses.

Yesterday's economic data painted a mixed picture as home price growth decelerated to 0.9% year-over-year in February, missing estimates of 1.1% and marking the slowest pace since 2012, while consumer confidence unexpectedly jumped to 92.8 in April from 92.2, beating the 89.0 estimate by 3.8 points—the largest upside surprise in five months. Crude oil inventories fell by 1.79 million barrels according to API data, significantly less than the expected 0.3 million build, suggesting tighter supply conditions than traders anticipated. Today's focus shifts to housing activity with starts expected to decline 5.2% month-over-month and building permits projected down 0.7%, alongside core durable goods orders estimated at 0.4% growth, while tomorrow brings the heavyweight Fed interest rate decision where policymakers are expected to hold rates steady at 3.75% amid updated economic projections, followed by Friday's critical PCE inflation data forecast at 3.5% year-over-year—a substantial acceleration from 2.8% that would mark the highest reading since October 2023.

ETFs demonstrated mixed positioning in mega-cap technology stocks during the period, with 3,611 funds adding Broadcom (semiconductors), 3,391 adding Microsoft (software), and 3,272 adding Meta (internet), while comparable numbers reduced these same positions. The equal 10-to-10 split in net additions versus removals suggests institutions are rebalancing within big tech rather than rotating out of the sector entirely.

AVGO Broadcom Inc. ⭐

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D -0.6% 3M +20.1% 1Y +108.8%

3611 ETFs • 0 shares

MSFT Microsoft Corporation ⭐

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +1.2% 3M -10.5% 1Y +10.1%

3391 ETFs • 0 shares

META Meta Platforms, Inc. ⭐

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +0.4% 3M -0.2% 1Y +22.9%

3272 ETFs • 0 shares

MSFT Microsoft Corporation ⭐

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +1.2% 3M -10.5% 1Y +10.1%

2325 ETFs • 0 shares

AVGO Broadcom Inc. ⭐

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -0.6% 3M +20.1% 1Y +108.8%

2249 ETFs • 0 shares

META Meta Platforms, Inc. ⭐

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +0.4% 3M -0.2% 1Y +22.9%

2096 ETFs • 0 shares

Rep. Robert E. Latta purchased shares of FMAO across three reported transactions, while selling activity was dispersed across different members and sectors. Rep. Rick Larsen reduced positions in both AWK and BR, and Rep. Jennifer McClellan sold VZ, with no clear sector concentration emerging from the reported sales.

FMAO Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +3.1% 3M +5.3% 1Y +21.0%

Rep. Robert E Latta (Robert E Latta) • $1,001 - $15,000

FMAO Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +3.1% 3M +5.3% 1Y +21.0%

Rep. Robert E. Latta (Robert E. Latta) • $1,001 - $15,000

FMAO Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +3.1% 3M +5.3% 1Y +21.0%

Rep. Robert E Latta (Robert E Latta) • $1,001 - $15,000

AWK American Water Works Company, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +0.5% 3M +2.3% 1Y -6.2%

Rep. Rick Larsen (Rick Larsen) • $1,001 - $15,000

BR Broadridge Financial Solutions, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

- Selling Falling Stock 5D -1.9% 3M -23.0% 1Y -32.4%

Rep. Rick Larsen (Rick Larsen) • $1,001 - $15,000

VZ Verizon Communications Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +2.1% 3M +20.2% 1Y +16.6%

Rep. Jennifer McClellan (Jennifer McClellan) • $100,001 - $250,000

Large-scale insider activity this period shows concentrated selling at CRWV where 358 insiders liquidated $1.8 billion in positions and CAR where 175 insiders sold $1.8 billion, while on the buying side, EQT saw 24 insiders add positions and KLRA recorded purchases from 18 insiders. The week's activity resulted in balanced signals with 15 accumulation indicators offsetting 15 distribution indicators across tracked companies.

EQT EQT Corporation ⭐ INSIDER

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +4.2% 3M +9.5% 1Y +19.3%

24 insiders • $346.8M

KLRA Kailera Therapeutics, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D -5.5%

18 insiders • $343.1M

NONE NONE ⭐ INSIDER

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

2 insiders • $61.4M

CRWV CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -8.4% 3M -3.1% 1Y +154.0%

358 insiders • $1.8B

CAR Avis Budget Group, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -74.5% 3M +54.9% 1Y +94.0%

175 insiders • $1.8B

RDW Redwire Corporation ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -12.4% 3M -36.4% 1Y -19.4%

6 insiders • $322.1M

Yesterday saw sharp moves with KNSA surging 26.9% and SRAD declining 26.7%, while CNC gained 26.6%. Today's earnings calendar features 267 companies, with GOOGL and GOOG showing recent accumulation patterns and ABBV and AZN displaying distribution signals heading into their reports. Another 263 companies are scheduled to report tomorrow.