Know What They Know
🐷 PIG ROAST
💬 Word on the Street
While Rep. Robert E. Latta (R-OH) quietly added Farmer Mac (FMAO) to his portfolio, insiders at Avis Budget Group (CAR) had 175 people racing for the exits with $1.8 billion in sales—the kind of coordinated stampede that makes you wonder what they know that we don't. Meanwhile, the Fed pumped in $1.7 billion in fresh liquidity as fear faded (VIX down 8.6% to 17.8), but smart money still dumped $3.4 billion more than they bought across the board. Here's what the insiders, institutions, and politicians were actually doing with their money today.
The Big Idea: When insiders, institutions, AND politicians all bet on the same stock? That's convergence — and historically, these aligned signals tend to pack more punch than solo moves. We track the smart money so you don't have to.
ETF Institutional funds adding/removing positions
INSIDER Corporate executives buying/selling their own stock
CONGRESS Politicians making trades (yes, we see you)
▲ + Buying Rising Stock: Smart money accumulating as price rises — ideal alignment
+ Buying Falling Stock: Smart money accumulating while price drops — falling knife risk
▲ - Selling Rising Stock: Smart money exiting while price still rising — warning signal
- Selling Falling Stock: Smart money exiting as price drops — confirms downtrend
The Bottom Line: Convergence + aligned momentum = strongest setups. Convergence + divergent momentum = proceed with caution. This isn't financial advice — it's intelligence. What you do with it is on you.
META
Meta Platforms, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
EQT
EQT Corporation
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
TTD
The Trade Desk, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
KO
The Coca-Cola Company
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
EMR
Emerson Electric Co.
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
TXN
Texas Instruments Incorporated
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
ABT
Abbott Laboratories
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
AXP
American Express Company
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
BK
The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
DIS
The Walt Disney Company
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
The VIX declined 8.6% over the past week to settle at 17.83, remaining in the normal range that suggests neither complacency nor elevated concern among equity options traders. The MOVE index, which tracks bond market volatility expectations, fell 8.7% to 15.85 and now sits at historically low levels, indicating that fixed income markets are pricing in minimal uncertainty ahead. Both measures moving lower in tandem reflects a general decline in hedging activity across asset classes, with options markets currently pricing below-average turbulence for the near term.
The market is showing a risk-on posture with cyclical sectors leading, as Semiconductors, Real Estate, and Financials demonstrate the strongest relative performance while defensive sectors like Healthcare, Consumer Staples, and Utilities lag significantly. Index breadth readings reveal moderate participation across the major benchmarks at around 57-60%, though Transportation stands out with notably stronger breadth at 84%, suggesting pockets of strength in economically sensitive areas. This combination of cyclical leadership and mixed breadth indicates selective risk appetite rather than broad-based market conviction.
As of April 22, Fed net liquidity stands at $6.71 trillion, up $1.7 billion from the prior week, indicating a marginal increase in system-wide liquidity that historically correlates with supportive conditions for risk assets. The next H.4.1 Federal Reserve balance sheet report releases Thursday, April 30, which will show whether this liquidity expansion continues or reverses.
Yesterday's data painted a mixed picture as housing starts surged 10.8% to 1.502M in March (beating the 1.4M estimate), but building permits dropped 10.8% to 1.372M (missing the 1.39M forecast), suggesting builders rushed to break ground ahead of anticipated permit restrictions while forward momentum may be stalling. Durable goods orders rose 0.8% versus the 0.5% estimate, though the core ex-transportation measure of 0.9% came in above the 0.4% forecast, pointing to continued business equipment demand even as the goods trade deficit widened to $87.87B. Today's spotlight shifts to Q1 GDP (estimated at 2.3% versus prior quarter's 0.5%), the core PCE price index expected at 0.3% monthly (down from 0.4%), and the Employment Cost Index forecasted at 0.8% versus last quarter's 0.7%—critical inflation inputs as markets assess whether the Fed's pause will extend, especially after crude oil inventories posted an unexpected 6.2M barrel draw that could pressure energy prices ahead.
Institutional money flows reveal a balanced tug-of-war in mega-cap technology, with AVGO, MSFT, and META seeing significant position additions from over 3,200 ETFs each, while simultaneously experiencing notable reductions from more than 2,000 funds. The split action—10 ETFs adding for every 10 removing—suggests active rebalancing within the semiconductor and software sectors rather than directional conviction, as institutions appear to be adjusting position sizes while maintaining overall exposure to large-cap tech.
AVGO
Broadcom Inc.
⭐
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
⭐
META
Meta Platforms, Inc.
⭐
MU
Micron Technology, Inc.
⭐
INTC
Intel Corporation
⭐
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
⭐
AVGO
Broadcom Inc.
⭐
META
Meta Platforms, Inc.
⭐
V
Visa Inc.
⭐
TXN
Texas Instruments Incorporated
⭐
Recent congressional trading activity shows Rep. Robert E. Latta made multiple purchases of FMAO across three separate transactions. On the selling side, Rep. Rick Larsen reduced positions in both PAYX and AWK, while Rep. Jennifer McClellan sold VZ.
FMAO
Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
FMAO
Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
FMAO
Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
⭐
CONGRESS
MAR
Marriott International, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
PAYX
Paychex, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
AWK
American Water Works Company, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
VZ
Verizon Communications Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
BR
Broadridge Financial Solutions, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
HOG
Harley-Davidson, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
Corporate insiders at EQT and KLRA showed coordinated buying activity with 24 and 18 participants respectively, while CAR and CRWV recorded significant cluster selling with 175 and 356 insiders offloading shares for proceeds totaling $1.8 billion and $1.2 billion. The week's insider activity showed balanced signals overall with 15 stocks experiencing accumulation patterns and 15 showing distribution patterns among corporate executives and board members.
EQT
EQT Corporation
⭐
INSIDER
KLRA
Kailera Therapeutics, Inc.
⭐
INSIDER
PRLD
Prelude Therapeutics Incorporated
⭐
INSIDER
ANAB
AnaptysBio, Inc.
⭐
INSIDER
ALMR
Alamar Biosciences, Inc.
⭐
INSIDER
CAR
Avis Budget Group, Inc.
⭐
INSIDER
CRWV
CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock
⭐
INSIDER
RDW
Redwire Corporation
⭐
INSIDER
ASX
ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd.
⭐
INSIDER
ANET
Arista Networks, Inc.
⭐
INSIDER
Earnings season continues with 239 companies reporting today, including AAPL and CAT which have recently shown accumulation patterns among institutional holders, while LLY and MRK have experienced notable distribution activity. Yesterday's session saw dramatic moves with CAR declining 59.2% and COCO surging 43.7% following their respective reports. Another 60 companies are scheduled to report tomorrow as the current earnings cycle progresses.
CAR
Avis Budget Group, Inc.
⭐
BEAT
-59.2%
COCO
The Vita Coco Company, Inc.
⭐
BEAT
+43.7%
EXTR
Extreme Networks, Inc.
⭐
BEAT
+24.3%
SOFI
SoFi Technologies, Inc.
⭐
MET
-18.5%
DK
Delek US Holdings, Inc.
⭐
BEAT
+18.4%
GNRC
Generac Holdings Inc.
⭐
BEAT
+18.4%
GEHC
GE HealthCare Technologies Inc.
⭐
MISS
-16.7%
LMND
Lemonade, Inc.
⭐
BEAT
-15.8%
CHEF
The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc.
⭐
BEAT
+15.6%
SITE
SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc.
⭐
BEAT
-15.6%
AAPL
Apple Inc.
⭐
CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
⭐
SNDK
Sandisk Corporation
⭐
WDC
Western Digital Corporation
⭐
PH
Parker-Hannifin Corporation
⭐
MO
Altria Group, Inc.
⭐
TT
Trane Technologies plc
⭐
PWR
Quanta Services, Inc.
⭐
ING
ING Groep N.V.
⭐
CI
Cigna Corporation
⭐
CRH
CRH plc
⭐
VLO
Valero Energy Corporation
⭐
MPWR
Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.
⭐
APD
Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.
⭐
AME
AMETEK, Inc.
⭐
LIN
Linde plc
⭐
IMO
Imperial Oil Limited
⭐
ARES
Ares Management Corporation
⭐
BTSGU
BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Tangible Equity Unit
⭐
NVT
nVent Electric plc
⭐
MGA
Magna International Inc.
⭐
TPG
TPG Inc.
⭐
DINO
HF Sinclair Corporation
⭐
IESC
IES Holdings, Inc.
⭐
BEP
Brookfield Renewable Partners L.P.
⭐
Smart money positioning reveals a complex landscape of divergent signals across corporate insiders, institutions, and congressional trading activity. Corporate insiders at EQT and KLRA demonstrated coordinated buying with 24 and 18 participants respectively, while CAR and CRWV recorded massive cluster selling with 175 and 356 insiders offloading shares for proceeds totaling $1.8 billion and $1.2 billion. Institutional flows show a balanced tug-of-war in mega-cap technology, with Broadcom (AVGO), Microsoft (MSFT), and Meta Platforms (META) seeing significant position additions from over 3,200 ETFs each while simultaneously experiencing notable reductions from more than 2,000 funds, suggesting active rebalancing rather than directional conviction. On Capitol Hill, Rep. Robert E. Latta made multiple purchases of Farmers & Merchants Bancorp (FMAO) across three separate transactions, while Rep. Rick Larsen reduced positions in both Paychex (PAYX) and American Water Works (AWK), and Rep. Jennifer McClellan sold Verizon Communications (VZ). The week's overall insider activity showed balanced signals with 15 stocks experiencing accumulation patterns and 15 showing distribution patterns, while accumulation signals currently stand at 30 with top names including Meta Platforms (META), EQT Corporation (EQT), and The Trade Desk (TTD). The market environment reflects a risk-on posture with declining volatility measures and selective cyclical leadership. The VIX declined 8.6% over the past week to settle at 17.83, remaining in the normal range, while the MOVE index fell 8.7% to 15.85 and now sits at historically low levels, indicating minimal uncertainty priced across both equity and fixed income options markets. This general decline in hedging activity comes as Semiconductors, Real Estate, and Financials demonstrate the strongest relative performance while defensive sectors like Healthcare, Consumer Staples, and Utilities lag significantly. Index breadth readings reveal moderate participation across major benchmarks at around 57-60%, with SPY Strength at 57.5%, though Transportation stands out with notably stronger breadth at 84%, suggesting pockets of strength in economically sensitive areas. This combination of cyclical leadership and mixed breadth indicates selective risk appetite rather than broad-based market conviction. Key catalysts converge today as 239 companies report earnings including Apple (AAPL) and Caterpillar (CAT), which have recently shown accumulation patterns among institutional holders, while Eli Lilly (LLY) and Merck (MRK) have experienced notable distribution activity. Today's economic calendar takes center stage with Q1 GDP estimated at 2.3% versus the prior quarter's 0.5%, the core PCE price index expected at 0.3% monthly down from 0.4%, and the Employment Cost Index forecasted at 0.8% versus last quarter's 0.7%, providing critical inflation inputs as markets assess whether the Fed's pause will extend. Yesterday's mixed housing data showed starts surging 10.8% to 1.502M
Key themes: Watch convergence signals closely. Stocks where insiders, institutions, and politicians agree tend to show stronger directional moves.