Know What They Know
π· PIG ROAST
π¬ Word on the Street
Rep. Robert E. Latta (R-OH) quietly picked up shares of Farmer Mac (FMAO) worth up to $15,000 while 178 insiders at Avis Budget Group (CAR) collectively dumped $1.8 billion in stockβthe kind of lopsided action that makes you wonder who knows something the rest of us don't. Meanwhile, Qualcomm (QCOM) is suddenly a data center darling and Viavi Solutions (VIAV) just casually notched a 398% annual gain like it's no big deal, all while smart money recorded a $3.1 billion net outflow and the Fed pulled another $7.5 billion out of the system. Here's what smart money is doing today.
The Big Idea: When insiders, institutions, AND politicians all bet on the same stock? That's convergence β and historically, these aligned signals tend to pack more punch than solo moves. We track the smart money so you don't have to.
ETF Institutional funds adding/removing positions
INSIDER Corporate executives buying/selling their own stock
CONGRESS Politicians making trades (yes, we see you)
β² + Buying Rising Stock: Smart money accumulating as price rises β ideal alignment
+ Buying Falling Stock: Smart money accumulating while price drops β falling knife risk
β² - Selling Rising Stock: Smart money exiting while price still rising β warning signal
- Selling Falling Stock: Smart money exiting as price drops β confirms downtrend
The Bottom Line: Convergence + aligned momentum = strongest setups. Convergence + divergent momentum = proceed with caution. This isn't financial advice β it's intelligence. What you do with it is on you.
META
Meta Platforms, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
EQT
EQT Corporation
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
TTD
The Trade Desk, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
KO
The Coca-Cola Company
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
EMR
Emerson Electric Co.
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
TXN
Texas Instruments Incorporated
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
BK
The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
DIS
The Walt Disney Company
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
V
Visa Inc.
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
The VIX currently sits at 18.81, down 0.6% week-over-week, placing equity market volatility expectations in the normal range after recent declines from more elevated levels. Bond market volatility, as measured by the MOVE index at 15.90, fell 3.2% over the week and remains at historically low levels, suggesting traders are pricing in minimal turbulence in fixed income markets. The divergence shows equity investors maintaining moderate caution while bond market participants have grown notably comfortable with current conditions.
The market is displaying a technology-led advance with semiconductors showing complete strength alongside real estate and financials in the top tier, while defensive sectors like consumer staples and healthcare are notably lagging. Breadth across major indices remains moderate in the mid-to-high 50% range, though transports are exhibiting a significant divergence with 84% breadth, suggesting broader participation in cyclical areas. This configuration reflects a risk-on environment concentrated in growth and rate-sensitive sectors, though the relatively muted breadth in SPY, QQQ, and DIA indicates the rally lacks widespread conviction across the broader market.
As of April 29, Fed net liquidity stands at $6.70T, down $7.5B week-over-week, indicating a modest contraction in available system liquidity that historically correlates with tighter market conditions. The next H.4.1 release drops Thursday, May 7, which will show whether this drawdown trend continues or reverses.
Yesterday's data painted a stagflationary picture as Q1 GDP came in at 2.0% versus the 2.2% estimate while the GDP Price Index surged to 4.5% against 3.8% expectedβthe widest miss on inflation within the growth report since Q2 2022βand employment costs accelerated with benefits jumping 1.2% versus just 0.4% estimated, the largest quarterly gain since Q4 2022. The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, Core PCE, met expectations at 0.3% monthly but the headline PCE accelerated to 3.5% year-over-year from 2.8%, marking the sharpest monthly jump (0.7%) since August 2023, driven by a robust 0.9% gain in personal spending. Markets are now focused on today's ISM Manufacturing PMI (expected at 53.0) for signs of whether factory activity can sustain momentum amid rising input costs, while tomorrow's Fed Governor Williams speech will be parsed for any shift in tone given the stickier-than-desired inflation backdrop and softening growth trajectory evidenced by the Leading Index's sixth decline in seven months.
Over 3,600 ETFs added positions in Broadcom while 3,300+ added Microsoft and Meta, suggesting institutional flows concentrated in mega-cap technology names despite simultaneous profit-taking by 2,000+ funds in each position. The balanced 10-vs-10 net institutional count indicates active portfolio rebalancing within the technology sector rather than a clear directional shift, with position sizing changes appearing more significant than pure add/remove activity.
AVGO
Broadcom Inc.
β
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
β
META
Meta Platforms, Inc.
β
MU
Micron Technology, Inc.
β
INTC
Intel Corporation
β
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
β
AVGO
Broadcom Inc.
β
META
Meta Platforms, Inc.
β
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
β
V
Visa Inc.
β
Rep. Robert E. Latta purchased FMAO across three separate transactions, while selling activity was dispersed among different members. Rep. Rick Larsen reduced positions in both BR and PAYX, making him the most active seller during this period.
FMAO
Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
FMAO
Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
FMAO
Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
β
CONGRESS
MAR
Marriott International, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
BR
Broadridge Financial Solutions, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
VZ
Verizon Communications Inc.
β
CONGRESS
PAYX
Paychex, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
HOG
Harley-Davidson, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
AWK
American Water Works Company, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
Corporate insiders at EQT Corporation showed coordinated accumulation with 24 individuals purchasing shares, while KLRA and PRLD recorded 5 and 6 insider purchases respectively. On the distribution side, CAR experienced the largest cluster selling activity with 178 insiders offloading $1.8B in stock, followed by CRWV where 334 insiders sold $1.1B in shares.
EQT
EQT Corporation
β
INSIDER
KLRA
Kailera Therapeutics, Inc.
β
INSIDER
PRLD
Prelude Therapeutics Incorporated
β
INSIDER
ANAB
AnaptysBio, Inc.
β
INSIDER
MEDP
Medpace Holdings, Inc.
β
INSIDER
CAR
Avis Budget Group, Inc.
β
INSIDER
CRWV
CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock
β
INSIDER
RDW
Redwire Corporation
β
INSIDER
ASX
ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd.
β
INSIDER
ANET
Arista Networks, Inc.
β
INSIDER
Sixty-three companies report earnings today, with institutional accumulation signals present in LIN and IMO ahead of their results, while XOM and CVX show distribution patterns before reporting. Yesterday's session saw significant moves in BAND, which surged 60.4%, and VISN, which gained 37.5%, while OPCH declined 28.8%. Tomorrow's calendar expands to 103 companies reporting results.
BAND
Bandwidth Inc.
β
BEAT
+60.4%
VISN
Vistance Networks, Inc.
β
BEAT
+37.5%
OPCH
Option Care Health, Inc.
β
MISS
-28.8%
GTX
Garrett Motion Inc.
β
BEAT
+24.7%
NVCR
NovoCure Limited
β
MISS
+20.8%
SNDK
Sandisk Corporation
β
BEAT
+17.6%
IDCC
InterDigital, Inc.
β
MISS
-17.5%
TNET
TriNet Group, Inc.
β
BEAT
+17.5%
CHH
Choice Hotels International, Inc.
β
MISS
-17.4%
W
Wayfair Inc.
β
MET
-16.9%
LIN
Linde plc
β
IMO
Imperial Oil Limited
β
ARES
Ares Management Corporation
β
BTSGU
BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Tangible Equity Unit
β
PKX
POSCO Holdings Inc.
β
NVT
nVent Electric plc
β
MGA
Magna International Inc.
β
TPG
TPG Inc.
β
IESC
IES Holdings, Inc.
β
DINO
HF Sinclair Corporation
β
BEP
Brookfield Renewable Partners L.P.
β
FRT
Federal Realty Investment Trust
β
BTSG
BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock
β
HBM
Hudbay Minerals Inc.
β
MSGS
Madison Square Garden Sports Corp.
β
FANG
Diamondback Energy, Inc.
β
ON
ON Semiconductor Corporation
β
CTRA
Coterra Energy Inc.
β
FN
Fabrinet
β
L
Loews Corporation
β
TSN
Tyson Foods, Inc.
β
RBA
RB Global, Inc.
β
LSCC
Lattice Semiconductor Corporation
β
STRL
Sterling Infrastructure, Inc.
β
AEIS
Advanced Energy Industries, Inc.
β
Smart money flows reveal a notable divergence between accumulation and distribution activity across different market participant groups. Institutions concentrated their positioning in mega-cap technology, with over 3,600 ETFs adding Broadcom while 3,300+ funds increased exposure to Microsoft and Meta, though this was partially offset by simultaneous profit-taking from 2,000+ funds in each name, indicating active rebalancing rather than pure directional conviction. Corporate insiders at EQT Corporation demonstrated coordinated buying with 24 individuals purchasing shares, while KLRA and PRLD recorded 5 and 6 insider purchases respectively, contrasting sharply with mass distribution at CAR where 178 insiders offloaded $1.8 billion in stock and CRWV where 334 insiders sold $1.1 billion in shares. Congressional activity remained relatively light, with Rep. Robert E. Latta purchasing FMAO across three separate transactions while Rep. Rick Larsen reduced positions in both BR and PAYX, emerging as the most active seller during the period. The current market regime reflects a technology-led advance operating within a moderately cautious environment, as evidenced by the VIX sitting at 18.81, down 0.6% week-over-week and firmly in normal territory, while bond market volatility measured by the MOVE index at 15.90 fell 3.2% to historically low levels. Semiconductors are displaying complete strength alongside real estate and financials in the top performance tier, while defensive sectors like consumer staples and healthcare notably lag, characteristic of a risk-on posture concentrated in growth and rate-sensitive areas. However, breadth across SPY, QQQ, and DIA remains moderate in the mid-to-high 50% range, with SPY strength registering 58.1%, suggesting the rally lacks widespread conviction even as transports exhibit 84% breadth, pointing to broader participation in cyclical sectors. The 30 accumulation signals with zero distribution signals, led by META, EQT, and TTD, confirm selective institutional appetite despite the concentrated nature of recent gains. Attention now turns to whether manufacturing data can validate the risk-on positioning amid an increasingly stagflationary backdrop, with today's ISM Manufacturing PMI expected at 53.0 serving as a critical gauge of factory momentum against rising input costs. Yesterday's economic releases presented a troubling combination as Q1 GDP came in at 2.0% versus 2.2% estimated while the GDP Price Index surged to 4.5% against 3.8% expectedβthe widest inflation miss within a growth report since Q2 2022βand the headline PCE accelerated to 3.5% year-over-year from 2.8%, marking the sharpest monthly jump since August 2023. Tomorrow's speech from Fed Governor Williams will be scrutinized for any shift in tone given the stickier inflation readings and softening growth trajectory, while the expanded earnings calendar featuring 103 companies provides individual catalyst opportunities, particularly in LIN and IMO where institutional accumulation signals precede results, contrasting with distribution patterns ahead of XOM and CVX earnings.
Key themes: Watch convergence signals closely. Stocks where insiders, institutions, and politicians agree tend to show stronger directional moves.