Know What They Know
π· PIG ROAST
π¬ Word on the Street
Rep. Robert E. Latta (R-OH) quietly picked up shares of Farmer Mac (FMAO) worth up to $15,000 while 178 insiders at Avis Budget Group (CAR) collectively dumped $1.8 billion in stockβthe kind of lopsided action that makes you wonder who knows something the rest of us don't. Meanwhile, Qualcomm (QCOM) is suddenly a data center darling and Viavi Solutions (VIAV) just casually notched a 398% annual gain like it's no big deal, all while smart money recorded a $3.1 billion net outflow and the Fed pulled another $7.5 billion out of the system. Here's what smart money is doing today.
META
Meta Platforms, Inc.
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CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
EQT
EQT Corporation
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CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
TTD
The Trade Desk, Inc.
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CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
The VIX currently sits at 18.81, down 0.6% week-over-week, placing equity market volatility expectations in the normal range after recent declines from more elevated levels. Bond market volatility, as measured by the MOVE index at 15.90, fell 3.2% over the week and remains at historically low levels, suggesting traders are pricing in minimal turbulence in fixed income markets. The divergence shows equity investors maintaining moderate caution while bond market participants have grown notably comfortable with current conditions.
The market is displaying a technology-led advance with semiconductors showing complete strength alongside real estate and financials in the top tier, while defensive sectors like consumer staples and healthcare are notably lagging. Breadth across major indices remains moderate in the mid-to-high 50% range, though transports are exhibiting a significant divergence with 84% breadth, suggesting broader participation in cyclical areas. This configuration reflects a risk-on environment concentrated in growth and rate-sensitive sectors, though the relatively muted breadth in SPY, QQQ, and DIA indicates the rally lacks widespread conviction across the broader market.
As of April 29, Fed net liquidity stands at $6.70T, down $7.5B week-over-week, indicating a modest contraction in available system liquidity that historically correlates with tighter market conditions. The next H.4.1 release drops Thursday, May 7, which will show whether this drawdown trend continues or reverses.
Yesterday's data painted a stagflationary picture as Q1 GDP came in at 2.0% versus the 2.2% estimate while the GDP Price Index surged to 4.5% against 3.8% expectedβthe widest miss on inflation within the growth report since Q2 2022βand employment costs accelerated with benefits jumping 1.2% versus just 0.4% estimated, the largest quarterly gain since Q4 2022. The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, Core PCE, met expectations at 0.3% monthly but the headline PCE accelerated to 3.5% year-over-year from 2.8%, marking the sharpest monthly jump (0.7%) since August 2023, driven by a robust 0.9% gain in personal spending. Markets are now focused on today's ISM Manufacturing PMI (expected at 53.0) for signs of whether factory activity can sustain momentum amid rising input costs, while tomorrow's Fed Governor Williams speech will be parsed for any shift in tone given the stickier-than-desired inflation backdrop and softening growth trajectory evidenced by the Leading Index's sixth decline in seven months.
Over 3,600 ETFs added positions in Broadcom while 3,300+ added Microsoft and Meta, suggesting institutional flows concentrated in mega-cap technology names despite simultaneous profit-taking by 2,000+ funds in each position. The balanced 10-vs-10 net institutional count indicates active portfolio rebalancing within the technology sector rather than a clear directional shift, with position sizing changes appearing more significant than pure add/remove activity.
AVGO
Broadcom Inc.
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MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
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META
Meta Platforms, Inc.
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MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
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AVGO
Broadcom Inc.
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META
Meta Platforms, Inc.
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Rep. Robert E. Latta purchased FMAO across three separate transactions, while selling activity was dispersed among different members. Rep. Rick Larsen reduced positions in both BR and PAYX, making him the most active seller during this period.
FMAO
Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc.
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CONGRESS
FMAO
Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc.
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CONGRESS
FMAO
Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc.
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CONGRESS
BR
Broadridge Financial Solutions, Inc.
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CONGRESS
VZ
Verizon Communications Inc.
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CONGRESS
PAYX
Paychex, Inc.
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CONGRESS
Corporate insiders at EQT Corporation showed coordinated accumulation with 24 individuals purchasing shares, while KLRA and PRLD recorded 5 and 6 insider purchases respectively. On the distribution side, CAR experienced the largest cluster selling activity with 178 insiders offloading $1.8B in stock, followed by CRWV where 334 insiders sold $1.1B in shares.
EQT
EQT Corporation
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INSIDER
KLRA
Kailera Therapeutics, Inc.
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INSIDER
PRLD
Prelude Therapeutics Incorporated
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INSIDER
CAR
Avis Budget Group, Inc.
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INSIDER
CRWV
CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock
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INSIDER
RDW
Redwire Corporation
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INSIDER
Sixty-three companies report earnings today, with institutional accumulation signals present in LIN and IMO ahead of their results, while XOM and CVX show distribution patterns before reporting. Yesterday's session saw significant moves in BAND, which surged 60.4%, and VISN, which gained 37.5%, while OPCH declined 28.8%. Tomorrow's calendar expands to 103 companies reporting results.