Know What They Know
π· PIG ROAST
π¬ Word on the Street
While Rep. Robert E. Latta (R-OH) quietly added Farmer Mac (FMAO) to his portfolio in the $1,001 to $15,000 range, 42 insiders at Carvana (CVNA) collectively dumped $1.9 billion worth of sharesβthe kind of mass exodus that makes you wonder what they're seeing that we're not. Meanwhile, smart money recorded a $5.2 billion net outflow today as institutions unloaded $6.4 billion while scooping up just $1.2 billion, painting a picture that's about as bullish as a vegetarian at a steakhouse. Here's what smart money is doing today.
The Big Idea: When insiders, institutions, AND politicians all bet on the same stock? That's convergence β and historically, these aligned signals tend to pack more punch than solo moves. We track the smart money so you don't have to.
ETF Institutional funds adding/removing positions
INSIDER Corporate executives buying/selling their own stock
CONGRESS Politicians making trades (yes, we see you)
β² + Buying Rising Stock: Smart money accumulating as price rises β ideal alignment
+ Buying Falling Stock: Smart money accumulating while price drops β falling knife risk
β² - Selling Rising Stock: Smart money exiting while price still rising β warning signal
- Selling Falling Stock: Smart money exiting as price drops β confirms downtrend
The Bottom Line: Convergence + aligned momentum = strongest setups. Convergence + divergent momentum = proceed with caution. This isn't financial advice β it's intelligence. What you do with it is on you.
META
Meta Platforms, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
EQT
EQT Corporation
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
NOW
ServiceNow, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
TTD
The Trade Desk, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
KO
The Coca-Cola Company
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
EMR
Emerson Electric Co.
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
TXN
Texas Instruments Incorporated
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
GD
General Dynamics Corporation
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
BK
The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
The VIX settled at 16.89, declining 12.5% week-over-week and remaining within the normal range that typically indicates moderate investor concern about equity market swings over the next 30 days. Bond market volatility told a similar story, with the MOVE index dropping 14.1% to 14.71, a level considered low and suggesting Treasury traders are pricing in relatively calm conditions ahead. Both measures indicate options markets are currently pricing in muted near-term turbulence across equities and fixed income, though the VIX sits closer to the lower boundary where complacency can sometimes build before sudden reversals.
Market breadth shows a narrow leadership pattern with Semiconductors, Real Estate, and Energy demonstrating the strongest relative performance above 80%, while defensive sectors like Healthcare and Consumer Staples lag significantly below 50%. The Transportation index exhibits notably stronger breadth at 83% compared to the major equity indexes clustering between 57-63%, creating a divergence that historically signals mixed conviction about economic momentum. This concentration in cyclical and rate-sensitive sectors alongside weak defensive participation reflects a risk-on tilt, though the tepid breadth in core indexes suggests participation remains selective rather than broad-based.
**Fed Liquidity Update** As of April 29, Fed net liquidity stands at $6.70 trillion, down $7.5 billion week-over-week, indicating a modest tightening in system-wide dollar availability that historically correlates with reduced risk asset support. The next H.4.1 balance sheet release drops Thursday, May 7, which will show whether this liquidity drain continues or reverses.
Yesterday's ISM Manufacturing PMI held steady at 52.7, meeting expectations, but the employment component dropped to 46.4 versus 49.0 expectedβmarking the 11th consecutive month below the 50 expansion threshold and suggesting persistent labor market softening in the industrial sector despite overall factory activity remaining in expansion territory. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model ticked down to 3.5% from 3.7% for Q2, while CFTC positioning data showed speculators flipped to a net short position of -2.3K contracts on the Nasdaq 100 from +9.4K the prior week, the first negative reading since March and reflecting growing caution on tech-heavy indexes. Markets will focus on tomorrow's ISM Services PMI (expected at 53.7 versus 54.0 prior) and JOLTs job openings (estimated at 6.83M versus 6.882M), with particular attention on the services employment component after manufacturing employment deterioratedβcritical data points ahead of Friday's nonfarm payrolls that could influence the Fed's rate trajectory.
Exchange-traded funds displayed competing positioning in technology and semiconductors during the period, with 4,476 ETFs adding exposure to Broadcom and 3,894 adding Micron Technology, while 2,811 ETFs simultaneously reduced Broadcom holdings, indicating active rotation within the chip sector. The mixed activity in Meta Platforms (4,152 adding, 2,604 removing) and notable reduction in Eli Lilly by 2,422 ETFs suggests institutions rebalanced between mega-cap technology and healthcare positions.
AVGO
Broadcom Inc.
β
META
Meta Platforms, Inc.
β
MU
Micron Technology, Inc.
β
INTC
Intel Corporation
β
CSCO
Cisco Systems, Inc.
β
AVGO
Broadcom Inc.
β
META
Meta Platforms, Inc.
β
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
β
V
Visa Inc.
β
UNH
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated
β
Rep. Robert E. Latta made multiple purchase transactions in FMAO during the reporting period. Rep. Lloyd Smucker reduced positions across multiple holdings, selling shares of WFC, VZ, and PRU.
FMAO
Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
FMAO
Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
FMAO
Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
β
CONGRESS
MAR
Marriott International, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
WFC
Wells Fargo & Company
β
CONGRESS
VZ
Verizon Communications Inc.
β
CONGRESS
PRU
Prudential Financial, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
ENBP
ENB Financial Corp
β
CONGRESS
FULT
Fulton Financial Corporation
β
CONGRESS
Significant cluster selling activity occurred at CVNA with 42 insiders disposing of $1.9B in shares, CAR with 178 insiders selling $1.8B, and CRWV with 410 insiders liquidating $1.7B in positions. On the buying side, EQT saw concentrated purchasing activity with 24 insiders adding shares, while KLRA and NOW recorded 5 and 3 insider purchases respectively.
EQT
EQT Corporation
β
INSIDER
KLRA
Kailera Therapeutics, Inc.
β
INSIDER
NOW
ServiceNow, Inc.
β
INSIDER
PRIM
Primoris Services Corporation
β
INSIDER
PRLD
Prelude Therapeutics Incorporated
β
INSIDER
CVNA
Carvana Co.
β
INSIDER
CAR
Avis Budget Group, Inc.
β
INSIDER
CRWV
CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock
β
INSIDER
ASX
ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd.
β
INSIDER
RDW
Redwire Corporation
β
INSIDER
Today's earnings calendar features 109 companies, with accumulation signals detected in WMB and FANG ahead of their reports, while VRTX and CIB are showing distribution patterns. Yesterday's session saw notable moves including DINO surging 14.8% and ATMU declining 15.3%, with BEPC dropping 14.6%. Tomorrow's slate expands significantly to 291 companies reporting results.
ATMU
Atmus Filtration Technologies Inc.
β
BEAT
-15.3%
DINO
HF Sinclair Corporation
β
BEAT
+14.8%
BEPC
Brookfield Renewable Corporation
β
MISS
-14.6%
PKX
POSCO Holdings Inc.
β
BEAT
+12.2%
LBTYB
Liberty Global plc
β
BEAT
-10.7%
MRNA
Moderna, Inc.
β
MISS
-10.6%
NEXT
NextDecade Corporation
β
BEAT
+10.4%
NVT
nVent Electric plc
β
BEAT
+10.1%
BTSGU
BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Tangible Equity Unit
β
BEAT
+9.6%
IESC
IES Holdings, Inc.
β
BEAT
+9.3%
WMB
The Williams Companies, Inc.
β
FANG
Diamondback Energy, Inc.
β
ON
ON Semiconductor Corporation
β
CTRA
Coterra Energy Inc.
β
FN
Fabrinet
β
L
Loews Corporation
β
RBA
RB Global, Inc.
β
LSCC
Lattice Semiconductor Corporation
β
STRL
Sterling Infrastructure, Inc.
β
AEIS
Advanced Energy Industries, Inc.
β
PINS
Pinterest, Inc.
β
CNA
CNA Financial Corporation
β
CRBG
Corebridge Financial, Inc.
β
PNW
Pinnacle West Capital Corporation
β
EQH
Equitable Holdings, Inc.
β
AMD
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.
β
HSBC
HSBC Holdings plc
β
ANET
Arista Networks, Inc.
β
ETN
Eaton Corporation plc
β
BUD
Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV
β
DUK-PA
Duke Energy Corporation
β
KKR
KKR & Co. Inc.
β
CMI
Cummins Inc.
β
SU
Suncor Energy Inc.
β
AEP
American Electric Power Company, Inc.
β
Smart money flows reveal divergent positioning across major technology names and notable concentration in recent insider activity. Exchange-traded funds displayed active rotation within semiconductors, with 4,476 ETFs adding exposure to Broadcom while 2,811 simultaneously reduced positions, and 3,894 funds adding Micron Technology, suggesting sector reallocation rather than directional conviction. Meta Platforms saw similar mixed activity with 4,152 ETFs adding and 2,604 removing shares, while 2,422 ETFs reduced Eli Lilly holdings in what appears to be rebalancing between mega-cap technology and healthcare. On the insider front, massive cluster selling dominated with 42 insiders at Carvana disposing of $1.9 billion in shares, 178 insiders at Avis Budget Group selling $1.8 billion, and 410 insiders at Crown Van Gelder liquidating $1.7 billion in positions. Concentrated buying emerged at EQT with 24 insiders adding shares, while Kalera and ServiceNow recorded 5 and 3 insider purchases respectively. Congressional activity showed Rep. Robert E. Latta making multiple purchase transactions in Farmers & Merchants Bancorp and Rep. Lloyd Smucker reducing positions across Wells Fargo, Verizon, and Prudential Financial. Market conditions reflect a narrow risk-on tilt with selective participation rather than broad-based confidence. The VIX settled at 16.89, declining 12.5% week-over-week, while the MOVE index dropped 14.1% to 14.71, both suggesting options markets are pricing in muted near-term turbulence though the VIX sits near levels where complacency can build before reversals. Market breadth reveals concentrated leadership with Semiconductors, Real Estate, and Energy demonstrating relative performance above 80%, while defensive sectors like Healthcare and Consumer Staples lag significantly below 50%. The Transportation index shows notably stronger breadth at 83% compared to major equity indexes clustering between 57-63%, a divergence that historically signals mixed conviction about economic momentum. SPY strength stands at 57.7% with 30 accumulation signals detected including Meta Platforms, EQT, and ServiceNow, while distribution signals remain at zero. CFTC positioning data showed speculators flipped to a net short position of negative 2,300 contracts on the Nasdaq 100 from positive 9,400 the prior week, marking the first negative reading since March and reflecting growing caution on tech-heavy indexes. Tomorrow's economic calendar expands significantly with 291 companies reporting earnings alongside critical ISM Services PMI expected at 53.7 versus 54.0 prior and JOLTs job openings estimated at 6.83 million versus 6.882 million. Particular attention will focus on the services employment component after yesterday's ISM Manufacturing employment dropped to 46.4 versus 49.0 expected, marking the 11th consecutive month below the 50 expansion threshold despite overall factory activity remaining in expansion territory at a 52.7 PMI reading. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model
Key themes: Watch convergence signals closely. Stocks where insiders, institutions, and politicians agree tend to show stronger directional moves.