The Edge

🐷 PIG ROAST

💬 Word on the Street

While Rep. Robert E. Latta (R-OH) quietly added Farmer Mac (FMAO) to his portfolio in the $1,001 to $15,000 range, 42 insiders at Carvana (CVNA) collectively dumped $1.9 billion worth of shares—the kind of mass exodus that makes you wonder what they're seeing that we're not. Meanwhile, smart money recorded a $5.2 billion net outflow today as institutions unloaded $6.4 billion while scooping up just $1.2 billion, painting a picture that's about as bullish as a vegetarian at a steakhouse. Here's what smart money is doing today.

The VIX settled at 16.89, declining 12.5% week-over-week and remaining within the normal range that typically indicates moderate investor concern about equity market swings over the next 30 days. Bond market volatility told a similar story, with the MOVE index dropping 14.1% to 14.71, a level considered low and suggesting Treasury traders are pricing in relatively calm conditions ahead. Both measures indicate options markets are currently pricing in muted near-term turbulence across equities and fixed income, though the VIX sits closer to the lower boundary where complacency can sometimes build before sudden reversals.

Market breadth shows a narrow leadership pattern with Semiconductors, Real Estate, and Energy demonstrating the strongest relative performance above 80%, while defensive sectors like Healthcare and Consumer Staples lag significantly below 50%. The Transportation index exhibits notably stronger breadth at 83% compared to the major equity indexes clustering between 57-63%, creating a divergence that historically signals mixed conviction about economic momentum. This concentration in cyclical and rate-sensitive sectors alongside weak defensive participation reflects a risk-on tilt, though the tepid breadth in core indexes suggests participation remains selective rather than broad-based.

**Fed Liquidity Update** As of April 29, Fed net liquidity stands at $6.70 trillion, down $7.5 billion week-over-week, indicating a modest tightening in system-wide dollar availability that historically correlates with reduced risk asset support. The next H.4.1 balance sheet release drops Thursday, May 7, which will show whether this liquidity drain continues or reverses.

Yesterday's ISM Manufacturing PMI held steady at 52.7, meeting expectations, but the employment component dropped to 46.4 versus 49.0 expected—marking the 11th consecutive month below the 50 expansion threshold and suggesting persistent labor market softening in the industrial sector despite overall factory activity remaining in expansion territory. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model ticked down to 3.5% from 3.7% for Q2, while CFTC positioning data showed speculators flipped to a net short position of -2.3K contracts on the Nasdaq 100 from +9.4K the prior week, the first negative reading since March and reflecting growing caution on tech-heavy indexes. Markets will focus on tomorrow's ISM Services PMI (expected at 53.7 versus 54.0 prior) and JOLTs job openings (estimated at 6.83M versus 6.882M), with particular attention on the services employment component after manufacturing employment deteriorated—critical data points ahead of Friday's nonfarm payrolls that could influence the Fed's rate trajectory.

Exchange-traded funds displayed competing positioning in technology and semiconductors during the period, with 4,476 ETFs adding exposure to Broadcom and 3,894 adding Micron Technology, while 2,811 ETFs simultaneously reduced Broadcom holdings, indicating active rotation within the chip sector. The mixed activity in Meta Platforms (4,152 adding, 2,604 removing) and notable reduction in Eli Lilly by 2,422 ETFs suggests institutions rebalanced between mega-cap technology and healthcare positions.

AVGO Broadcom Inc. ⭐

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D -0.3% 3M +27.2% 1Y +119.8%

4476 ETFs • 0 shares

META Meta Platforms, Inc. ⭐

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D -9.8% 3M -15.0% 1Y +11.1%

4152 ETFs • 0 shares

MU Micron Technology, Inc. ⭐

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +9.2% 3M +30.7% 1Y +605.7%

3894 ETFs • 0 shares

AVGO Broadcom Inc. ⭐

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -0.3% 3M +27.2% 1Y +119.8%

2811 ETFs • 0 shares

META Meta Platforms, Inc. ⭐

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -9.8% 3M -15.0% 1Y +11.1%

2604 ETFs • 0 shares

LLY Eli Lilly and Company ⭐

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +9.0% 3M -7.0% 1Y +7.8%

2422 ETFs • 0 shares

Rep. Robert E. Latta made multiple purchase transactions in FMAO during the reporting period. Rep. Lloyd Smucker reduced positions across multiple holdings, selling shares of WFC, VZ, and PRU.

FMAO Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +2.2% 3M +1.5% 1Y +5.9%

Rep. Robert E Latta (Robert E Latta) • $1,001 - $15,000

FMAO Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +2.2% 3M +1.5% 1Y +5.9%

Rep. Robert E. Latta (Robert E. Latta) • $1,001 - $15,000

FMAO Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +2.2% 3M +1.5% 1Y +5.9%

Rep. Robert E Latta (Robert E Latta) • $1,001 - $15,000

WFC Wells Fargo & Company ⭐ CONGRESS

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +1.8% 3M -10.2% 1Y +15.7%

Rep. Lloyd Smucker (Lloyd Smucker) • $15,001 - $50,000

VZ Verizon Communications Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +3.8% 3M +8.2% 1Y +13.0%

Rep. Lloyd Smucker (Lloyd Smucker) • $1,001 - $15,000

PRU Prudential Financial, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +4.7% 3M -10.0% 1Y -0.2%

Rep. Lloyd Smucker (Lloyd Smucker) • $1,001 - $15,000

Significant cluster selling activity occurred at CVNA with 42 insiders disposing of $1.9B in shares, CAR with 178 insiders selling $1.8B, and CRWV with 410 insiders liquidating $1.7B in positions. On the buying side, EQT saw concentrated purchasing activity with 24 insiders adding shares, while KLRA and NOW recorded 5 and 3 insider purchases respectively.

EQT EQT Corporation ⭐ INSIDER

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -0.1% 3M +2.2% 1Y +20.0%

24 insiders • $346.8M

KLRA Kailera Therapeutics, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +11.9%

5 insiders • $326.8M

NOW ServiceNow, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +1.1% 3M -22.1% 1Y -52.3%

3 insiders • $280.6M

CVNA Carvana Co. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -6.4% 3M -4.5% 1Y +56.7%

42 insiders • $1.9B

CAR Avis Budget Group, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -9.0% 3M +61.4% 1Y +100.3%

178 insiders • $1.8B

CRWV CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +8.0% 3M +27.6% 1Y +188.0%

410 insiders • $1.7B

Today's earnings calendar features 109 companies, with accumulation signals detected in WMB and FANG ahead of their reports, while VRTX and CIB are showing distribution patterns. Yesterday's session saw notable moves including DINO surging 14.8% and ATMU declining 15.3%, with BEPC dropping 14.6%. Tomorrow's slate expands significantly to 291 companies reporting results.