Know What They Know
π· PIG ROAST
π¬ Word on the Street
While Rep. Robert E. Latta (R-OH) quietly added shares of Farmer Mac (FMAO), 42 insiders at Carvana (CVNA) stampeded for the exits with $1.9 billion in salesβthe kind of divergence that makes you wonder who knows something the other doesn't. Meanwhile, volatility collapsed 9.2% as the VIX dropped to 17.0, and smart money overall pulled $5.1 billion off the table even as a few contrarian bets trickled in. Here's what smart money is doing today.
The Big Idea: When insiders, institutions, AND politicians all bet on the same stock? That's convergence β and historically, these aligned signals tend to pack more punch than solo moves. We track the smart money so you don't have to.
ETF Institutional funds adding/removing positions
INSIDER Corporate executives buying/selling their own stock
CONGRESS Politicians making trades (yes, we see you)
β² + Buying Rising Stock: Smart money accumulating as price rises β ideal alignment
+ Buying Falling Stock: Smart money accumulating while price drops β falling knife risk
β² - Selling Rising Stock: Smart money exiting while price still rising β warning signal
- Selling Falling Stock: Smart money exiting as price drops β confirms downtrend
The Bottom Line: Convergence + aligned momentum = strongest setups. Convergence + divergent momentum = proceed with caution. This isn't financial advice β it's intelligence. What you do with it is on you.
META
Meta Platforms, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
EQT
EQT Corporation
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
NOW
ServiceNow, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
TTD
The Trade Desk, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
CRM
Salesforce, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
KO
The Coca-Cola Company
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
EMR
Emerson Electric Co.
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
TXN
Texas Instruments Incorporated
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
GD
General Dynamics Corporation
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
The VIX declined 9.2% week-over-week to 16.99, remaining within the normal range that typically reflects moderate investor concern rather than complacency or panic. More notably, the MOVE index measuring bond market volatility dropped 27.0% to 13.10, reaching historically low levels that indicate exceptionally calm conditions in fixed income markets. This combination suggests investors are pricing in relatively stable conditions across both equity and bond markets in the near term, though the equity volatility gauge remains above the sub-15 threshold where complacency concerns typically emerge.
Market breadth shows a technology-led regime with semiconductors leading at 100% participation, followed by real estate at 87% and broader technology at 75%, while defensive sectors like healthcare and consumer staples lag significantly below 40%. The Nasdaq 100 demonstrates stronger internal momentum at 64% breadth compared to the S&P 500 and Dow Jones at 56% and 53% respectively, though transports show notably stronger participation at 79%. This configuration reflects concentrated strength in cyclical growth and rate-sensitive sectors, with a clear bifurcation between offensive and defensive areas of the market.
Federal Reserve net liquidity stood at $6.70 trillion as of April 29, declining $7.5 billion week-over-week, with the next H.4.1 data release scheduled for Thursday, May 7. The contraction in liquidity typically correlates with tighter financial conditions, as reduced Fed balance sheet support removes dollar availability from the financial system.
Factory orders surged 1.5% in March, tripling the 0.5% estimate and marking the strongest monthly gain since January 2024, as manufacturing demand showed resilience despite elevated ratesβthe back-to-back increases (0.3% in February, 1.5% in March) suggest industrial activity may be stabilizing after a choppy first quarter. Today's focus shifts to the ISM Services PMI, where economists expect a slight cooling to 53.7 from 54.0, though the real wildcard is the Non-Manufacturing Prices component that jumped to 70.7 last monthβthe highest since June 2022βwhich could signal sticky inflation in the dominant services sector that represents roughly 80% of the economy. Tomorrow's ADP employment report (expected at 99K versus last month's weak 62K print) will set the tone ahead of Friday's official jobs data, while JOLTS openings forecast at 6.83M would mark the lowest level since January 2021 if realized, confirming continued labor market softening.
# Institutional Flow Summary Exchange-traded funds demonstrated mixed positioning in mega-cap technology during the recent period, with 4,112 ETFs adding AVGO shares and 3,786 adding META, while 2,449 and 2,189 ETFs respectively reduced these same positions, indicating institutional disagreement on semiconductor and social media valuations. The data shows balanced flows overall (10 adding versus 10 removing), with notable activity in memory chip maker MU (3,706 additions) and healthcare giant LLY (2,049 removals), suggesting a potential rotation within growth sectors rather than a broad directional bet.
AVGO
Broadcom Inc.
β
META
Meta Platforms, Inc.
β
MU
Micron Technology, Inc.
β
INTC
Intel Corporation
β
CSCO
Cisco Systems, Inc.
β
AVGO
Broadcom Inc.
β
META
Meta Platforms, Inc.
β
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
β
GILD
Gilead Sciences, Inc.
β
MU
Micron Technology, Inc.
β
Rep. Robert E. Latta made multiple purchases of FMAO stock across three separate transactions during the reporting period. Rep. Lloyd Smucker reduced positions in three different holdings, selling FULT, ENBP, and PRU.
FMAO
Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
FMAO
Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
FMAO
Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
β
CONGRESS
MAR
Marriott International, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
FULT
Fulton Financial Corporation
β
CONGRESS
ENBP
ENB Financial Corp
β
CONGRESS
PRU
Prudential Financial, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
VZ
Verizon Communications Inc.
β
CONGRESS
WFC
Wells Fargo & Company
β
CONGRESS
Notable cluster activity this week shows 24 insiders at EQT Corporation acquiring shares while the auto sector experienced concentrated selling, with 42 insiders at Carvana offloading $1.9 billion in stock, 178 insiders at Avis Budget divesting $1.8 billion, and 347 insiders at Crow Holdings reducing positions worth $1.5 billion. The period resulted in balanced signals with 15 accumulation patterns offsetting 15 distribution patterns across monitored securities.
EQT
EQT Corporation
β
INSIDER
NOW
ServiceNow, Inc.
β
INSIDER
PRIM
Primoris Services Corporation
β
INSIDER
PRLD
Prelude Therapeutics Incorporated
β
INSIDER
MEDP
Medpace Holdings, Inc.
β
INSIDER
CVNA
Carvana Co.
β
INSIDER
CAR
Avis Budget Group, Inc.
β
INSIDER
CRWV
CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock
β
INSIDER
RDW
Redwire Corporation
β
INSIDER
ANET
Arista Networks, Inc.
β
INSIDER
Today's earnings slate features 299 companies, with AMD and HSBC showing recent accumulation patterns by institutional holders ahead of their reports, while PFE and DUK have experienced notable distribution activity. Yesterday's session saw AXSM surge 19.2% and VAL-WT climb 16.9%, while NSSC declined 14.1%. Tomorrow's calendar expands to 309 companies reporting quarterly results.
AXSM
Axsome Therapeutics, Inc.
β
MISS
+19.2%
VAL-WT
Valaris Limited Warrants
β
MISS
+16.9%
NSSC
Napco Security Technologies, Inc.
β
BEAT
-14.1%
AMRC
Ameresco, Inc.
β
MISS
+12.8%
JBTM
JBT Marel Corporation
β
BEAT
-11.8%
ADEA
Adeia Inc.
β
BEAT
+11.6%
ERO
Ero Copper Corp.
β
BEAT
-11.4%
BCC
Boise Cascade Company
β
BEAT
-11.2%
TVTX
Travere Therapeutics, Inc.
β
MISS
+10.1%
BWIN
The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc.
β
MISS
-9.9%
AMD
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.
β
HSBC
HSBC Holdings plc
β
ANET
Arista Networks, Inc.
β
ETN
Eaton Corporation plc
β
BUD
Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV
β
DUK-PA
Duke Energy Corporation
β
KKR
KKR & Co. Inc.
β
CMI
Cummins Inc.
β
SU
Suncor Energy Inc.
β
EOG
EOG Resources, Inc.
β
MPC
Marathon Petroleum Corporation
β
AEP
American Electric Power Company, Inc.
β
LITE
Lumentum Holdings Inc.
β
ET
Energy Transfer LP
β
CCJ
Cameco Corporation
β
ARM
Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares
β
NVO
Novo Nordisk A/S
β
DIS
The Walt Disney Company
β
APP
AppLovin Corporation
β
CVS
CVS Health Corporation
β
EQNR
Equinor ASA
β
MAR
Marriott International, Inc.
β
JCI
Johnson Controls International plc
β
DASH
DoorDash, Inc.
β
APO
Apollo Global Management, Inc.
β
Smart money flows reveal diverging conviction levels across major growth names as institutional positioning shows clear disagreement on mega-cap technology valuations. Exchange-traded funds split nearly evenly on Broadcom (AVGO) with 4,112 adding exposure while 2,449 reduced positions, and similar division on Meta Platforms (META) with 3,786 adding against 2,189 trimming stakes. The institutional community showed stronger consensus on Micron Technology (MU) with 3,706 ETFs adding shares, suggesting differentiated views within semiconductors despite the sector's 100% breadth participation. Insider activity presented a stark contrast between energy and automotive sectors, with 24 insiders at EQT Corporation accumulating shares while the auto industry experienced heavy selling pressureβ42 insiders at Carvana (CVNA) offloaded $1.9 billion, 178 insiders at Avis Budget Group (CAR) divested $1.8 billion, and 347 insiders at Crow Holdings Automobile Group reduced positions worth $1.5 billion. Congressional activity remained modest with Rep. Robert E. Latta executing multiple purchases of Farmers & Merchants Bancorp (FMAO) and Rep. Lloyd Smucker reducing exposure across Fulton Financial (FULT), ENB Financial (ENBP), and Prudential Financial (PRU). Market structure reflects a technology-dominated regime with semiconductors demonstrating universal participation at 100% breadth while defensive sectors lag dramatically, healthcare and consumer staples both registering below 40% participation. The Nasdaq 100's 64% breadth advantage over the S&P 500's 56% confirms concentrated leadership in cyclical growth names, though transports showing 79% participation suggests some broadening beyond pure technology. Volatility gauges signal expectations for stable conditions with the VIX declining 9.2% week-over-week to 16.99, remaining above complacency thresholds, while the MOVE index measuring bond volatility plunged 27.0% to 13.10, reaching historically calm levels that indicate fixed income markets are pricing minimal rate turbulence ahead. This bifurcated sector performanceβrate-sensitive real estate at 87% breadth alongside defensive weaknessβreflects markets digesting stabilizing inflation data while maintaining growth sector preference. The economic calendar presents potential catalysts that could either validate or challenge current positioning, with today's ISM Services PMI expected at 53.7 offering insight into the services sector representing roughly 80% of the economy, though the Non-Manufacturing Prices component warrants close attention after surging to 70.7 last month, the highest reading since June 2022. Factory orders provided an upside surprise with March's 1.5% surge tripling estimates and marking the strongest gain since January 2024, suggesting industrial stabilization that could support the semiconductor thesis reflected in institutional flows. Tomorrow's earnings calendar expands to 309 companies with Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and HSBC Holdings (HSBC) showing recent institutional accumulation ahead of results, while Pfizer (PFE) and Duke Energy (DUK) experienced distribution
Key themes: Watch convergence signals closely. Stocks where insiders, institutions, and politicians agree tend to show stronger directional moves.