Know What They Know
π· PIG ROAST
π¬ Word on the Street
Rep. Robert E. Latta (R-OH) quietly added Farmers & Merchants Bancorp (FMAO) shares worth up to $15,000 while 42 insiders at Carvana (CVNA) collectively unloaded $1.9 billionβthe kind of exit velocity that makes you wonder what they know that we don't. Meanwhile, smart money poured $7.0 billion into new positions against $5.8 billion in sales, and the semiconductor world is apparently having an identity crisis with Intel joining Elon's TeraFab project and Qualcomm deciding phones are for peasants. Here's what smart money is doing today.
The Big Idea: When insiders, institutions, AND politicians all bet on the same stock? That's convergence β and historically, these aligned signals tend to pack more punch than solo moves. We track the smart money so you don't have to.
ETF Institutional funds adding/removing positions
INSIDER Corporate executives buying/selling their own stock
CONGRESS Politicians making trades (yes, we see you)
β² + Buying Rising Stock: Smart money accumulating as price rises β ideal alignment
+ Buying Falling Stock: Smart money accumulating while price drops β falling knife risk
β² - Selling Rising Stock: Smart money exiting while price still rising β warning signal
- Selling Falling Stock: Smart money exiting as price drops β confirms downtrend
The Bottom Line: Convergence + aligned momentum = strongest setups. Convergence + divergent momentum = proceed with caution. This isn't financial advice β it's intelligence. What you do with it is on you.
META
Meta Platforms, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
EQT
EQT Corporation
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
NOW
ServiceNow, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
TTD
The Trade Desk, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
CRM
Salesforce, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
KO
The Coca-Cola Company
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
EMR
Emerson Electric Co.
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
TXN
Texas Instruments Incorporated
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
GD
General Dynamics Corporation
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
The VIX equity volatility index sits at 18.29, up 1.5% over the past week and remaining within the normal range that typically indicates moderate market uncertainty. Meanwhile, the MOVE bond volatility index has declined sharply by 22.4% to 13.54, signaling unusually low expectations for swings in Treasury markets. This divergence suggests equity investors are pricing in somewhat more potential turbulence ahead than their fixed income counterparts, though neither market is currently reflecting extreme stress or complacency.
The current market regime shows technology-oriented sectors commanding leadership, with Semiconductors, Real Estate, and Technology registering strength readings above 78%, while defensive areas like Healthcare and Consumer Staples lag significantly at 28% and 36% respectively. Index breadth reveals moderate participation across major benchmarks, with the Nasdaq posting 63% breadth and the S&P 500 at 57%, though Transportation stands notably stronger at 77%. This configuration indicates a risk-on environment concentrated in growth and cyclical names, though the middling breadth figures suggest the rally lacks widespread conviction across the broader market.
As of April 29, Fed net liquidity stands at $6.70 trillion, down $7.5 billion week-over-week, indicating a modest tightening in financial system liquidity that historically correlates with reduced market support. The next H.4.1 release drops Thursday, May 7, which will show whether this contractionary trend continues or reverses.
Yesterday's trade deficit narrowed slightly to -$60.3B against expectations of -$60.9B as exports jumped to $320.9B, while the services sector data painted a mixed picture with the ISM Services PMI slipping to 53.6 from 54.0 but still holding comfortably in expansion territory, and the notable divergence came in prices paid which landed at 70.7 versus the 73.7 estimateβa potential indication that service-sector inflation pressures may be easing despite the index remaining at elevated levels. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model ticked up to 3.7% for Q2, suggesting growth momentum continues even as JOLTs openings held near cycle lows at 6.866M, down from the 2022 peak above 12M, signaling labor market normalization is well underway. Markets will focus heavily on today's ADP employment report (expected 99K versus prior 62K) and tomorrow's initial jobless claims (forecast 205K up from an exceptionally low 189K) as critical pre-NFP indicators, while three Fed speakers today and two tomorrow could provide additional commentary on how policymakers are interpreting the recent softening in labor data against still-resilient growth figures.
# Institutional Flow Summary ETFs exhibited split positioning in mega-cap technology during the period, with 4,345 funds adding exposure to Broadcom while 2,553 simultaneously reduced positions, alongside similar divided activity in Meta (3,921 adding vs 2,343 removing) and mixed semiconductor flows in Micron. The balanced 10-to-10 add/remove ratio across all positions suggests tactical rebalancing rather than directional conviction, though the removal activity in Eli Lilly indicates some rotation pressure within large-cap healthcare.
AVGO
Broadcom Inc.
β
META
Meta Platforms, Inc.
β
MU
Micron Technology, Inc.
β
INTC
Intel Corporation
β
CSCO
Cisco Systems, Inc.
β
AVGO
Broadcom Inc.
β
META
Meta Platforms, Inc.
β
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
β
GILD
Gilead Sciences, Inc.
β
MU
Micron Technology, Inc.
β
Rep. Robert E. Latta made three purchases of FMAO (Farmers & Merchants Bancorp), concentrating activity in a single regional banking stock. Rep. Lloyd Smucker reduced positions across three holdings, selling VZ (Verizon), FULT (Fulton Financial), and PRU (Prudential Financial), representing a diversified exit from telecommunications, regional banking, and insurance sectors.
FMAO
Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
FMAO
Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
FMAO
Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
β
CONGRESS
MAR
Marriott International, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
VZ
Verizon Communications Inc.
β
CONGRESS
FULT
Fulton Financial Corporation
β
CONGRESS
PRU
Prudential Financial, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
ENBP
ENB Financial Corp
β
CONGRESS
WFC
Wells Fargo & Company
β
CONGRESS
Corporate insiders at Carvana, Avis Budget Group, and Crown Electrokinetics executed significant coordinated sales this period, with 42, 178, and 321 insiders respectively offloading positions totaling $5.1 billion combined. Meanwhile, concentrated buying activity occurred at EQT Corporation where 24 insiders added positions, alongside smaller clusters at ServiceNow and SaverOne.
SVRE
SaverOne 2014 Ltd
β
INSIDER
EQT
EQT Corporation
β
INSIDER
NOW
ServiceNow, Inc.
β
INSIDER
PRIM
Primoris Services Corporation
β
INSIDER
N/A
N/A
β
INSIDER
CVNA
Carvana Co.
β
INSIDER
CAR
Avis Budget Group, Inc.
β
INSIDER
CRWV
CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock
β
INSIDER
STKL
SunOpta Inc.
β
INSIDER
UTHR
United Therapeutics Corporation
β
INSIDER
Earnings Preview: 319 companies report today, with ARM and NVO showing recent accumulation activity from institutional investors ahead of their results. On the distribution side, insiders and institutions have reduced positions in WBD and COR entering their earnings releases. Yesterday's notable movers included DOCN surging 61.8%, WOLF advancing 41.9%, and BLDP climbing 40.0% following their respective quarterly reports.
DOCN
DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc.
β
BEAT
+61.8%
WOLF
Wolfspeed, Inc.
β
BEAT
+41.9%
BLDP
Ballard Power Systems Inc.
β
BEAT
+40.0%
VRDN
Viridian Therapeutics, Inc.
β
BEAT
+38.0%
BRBR
BellRing Brands, Inc.
β
MISS
-37.1%
FTRE
Fortrea Holdings Inc.
β
BEAT
+35.0%
CIFR
Cipher Mining Inc.
β
MISS
+28.0%
CYTK
Cytokinetics, Incorporated
β
MET
+27.0%
LITE
Lumentum Holdings Inc.
β
BEAT
+25.7%
GFS
GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.
β
BEAT
+24.5%
ARM
Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares
β
NVO
Novo Nordisk A/S
β
DIS
The Walt Disney Company
β
APP
AppLovin Corporation
β
EQNR
Equinor ASA
β
CVS
CVS Health Corporation
β
MAR
Marriott International, Inc.
β
JCI
Johnson Controls International plc
β
APO
Apollo Global Management, Inc.
β
DASH
DoorDash, Inc.
β
FTNT
Fortinet, Inc.
β
CTA-PB
EIDP, Inc. USD 4.50 Cum Pfd Registered Shs
β
CVE
Cenovus Energy Inc.
β
COHR
Coherent, Inc.
β
MET
MetLife, Inc.
β
MELI
MercadoLibre, Inc.
β
NET
Cloudflare, Inc.
β
ABNB
Airbnb, Inc.
β
CRWV
CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock
β
TRGP
Targa Resources Corp.
β
GWW
W.W. Grainger, Inc.
β
MCHP
Microchip Technology Incorporated
β
COIN
Coinbase Global, Inc.
β
DDOG
Datadog, Inc.
β
ARGX
argenx SE
β
Smart money flows reveal a market in tactical repositioning mode rather than clear directional conviction. Corporate insiders at Carvana, Avis Budget Group, and Crown Electrokinetics orchestrated heavy coordinated selling with 42, 178, and 321 insiders respectively offloading positions totaling $5.1 billion combined, while concentrated buying appeared at EQT Corporation where 24 insiders added exposure alongside smaller accumulation clusters at ServiceNow and SaverOne. Institutional activity through ETFs showed similarly divided positioning, with 4,345 funds adding Broadcom exposure while 2,553 simultaneously reduced, and 3,921 adding Meta (META) against 2,343 removing, suggesting rebalancing activity rather than strong conviction. Congressional activity remained light, with Rep. Robert E. Latta concentrating three purchases in Farmers & Merchants Bancorp (FMAO) while Rep. Lloyd Smucker executed diversified exits from Verizon (VZ), Fulton Financial (FULT), and Prudential Financial (PRU) across telecommunications, regional banking, and insurance sectors. The market configuration reflects a risk-on environment concentrated in technology and growth names, though participation remains middling across broader benchmarks. Semiconductors, Real Estate, and Technology sectors command leadership with strength readings above 78%, while defensive Healthcare and Consumer Staples lag significantly at 28% and 36% respectively, confirming cyclical outperformance. The S&P 500 registers 57% breadth with the Nasdaq at 63%, suggesting the rally lacks widespread conviction despite Transportation's notably stronger 77% reading. Volatility markets present an interesting divergence, with the VIX equity volatility index at 18.29 indicating moderate uncertainty among stock investors while the MOVE bond volatility index has plunged 22.4% to 13.54, signaling unusually low expectations for Treasury market swings and suggesting fixed income participants see limited turbulence ahead compared to their equity counterparts. Today's focus centers on 319 earnings reports including ARM and NVO, both showing recent institutional accumulation ahead of results, while WBD and COR face releases after experiencing distribution activity from insiders and institutions. Economic data takes center stage with the ADP employment report expected at 99,000 versus the prior 62,000 print, serving as a critical pre-NFP indicator alongside tomorrow's initial jobless claims forecast at 205,000 up from an exceptionally low 189,000. Three Federal Reserve speakers today and two tomorrow could provide commentary on how policymakers interpret recent labor market softening against the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model ticking up to 3.7% for Q2 growth, while yesterday's services sector prices paid component at 70.7 versus the 73.7 estimate suggests potential easing in inflation pressures despite the ISM Services PMI holding in expansion territory at 53.6.
Key themes: Watch convergence signals closely. Stocks where insiders, institutions, and politicians agree tend to show stronger directional moves.