Know What They Know
π· PIG ROAST
π¬ Word on the Street
While Rep. Robert E. Latta (R-OH) quietly added Farmer Mac (FMAO) to his portfolio, 42 insiders at Carvana (CVNA) collectively dumped $1.9 billion in stockβthe kind of exit velocity that makes you wonder what they know that we don't. Meanwhile, Flex Ltd. (FLEX) surged 40% after earnings because apparently in 2026, being the company that makes other people's products is hotter than having your own brand. Here's what smart money is doing today.
The Big Idea: When insiders, institutions, AND politicians all bet on the same stock? That's convergence β and historically, these aligned signals tend to pack more punch than solo moves. We track the smart money so you don't have to.
ETF Institutional funds adding/removing positions
INSIDER Corporate executives buying/selling their own stock
CONGRESS Politicians making trades (yes, we see you)
β² + Buying Rising Stock: Smart money accumulating as price rises β ideal alignment
+ Buying Falling Stock: Smart money accumulating while price drops β falling knife risk
β² - Selling Rising Stock: Smart money exiting while price still rising β warning signal
- Selling Falling Stock: Smart money exiting as price drops β confirms downtrend
The Bottom Line: Convergence + aligned momentum = strongest setups. Convergence + divergent momentum = proceed with caution. This isn't financial advice β it's intelligence. What you do with it is on you.
META
Meta Platforms, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
NOW
ServiceNow, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
ALKT
Alkami Technology, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
KO
The Coca-Cola Company
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
EMR
Emerson Electric Co.
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
TXN
Texas Instruments Incorporated
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
GD
General Dynamics Corporation
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
BK
The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
DIS
The Walt Disney Company
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
Equity market volatility remains in normal territory with the VIX at 17.38, declining 2.5% over the past week, suggesting investor anxiety has moderated slightly from recent levels. Bond market volatility tells a more pronounced story, with the MOVE index dropping 15.1% week-over-week to 13.45, reaching historically low levels that indicate traders are pricing in minimal turbulence in fixed income markets. The divergence between subdued bond volatility and mid-range equity volatility reflects a market environment where participants appear relatively calm about near-term interest rate movements while maintaining some caution around stock price swings.
Market leadership remains concentrated in technology-oriented sectors, with semiconductors showing universal strength at 100% participation, followed by real estate at 90% and broader technology at 77%, while defensive areas like consumer staples and healthcare languish in the lower third of performance rankings. Index breadth reveals a modest but positive tone, with the Nasdaq leading at 61% and transportation stocks showing surprising strength at 74%, though the Dow's 53% reading suggests large-cap value continues to lag. The divergence between surging semiconductor stocks and struggling consumer discretionary names at just 40% highlights a market where investors are favoring innovation plays over companies dependent on consumer spending.
As of April 29, Fed net liquidity stood at $6.70 trillion, down $7.5 billion from the prior week, indicating a modest tightening in financial conditions that historically correlates with reduced market support. The next H.4.1 data release is scheduled for Thursday, May 7, which will show whether this liquidity drain accelerated or reversed.
Yesterday's ADP employment figure of 109K significantly exceeded the 99K estimate and nearly doubled the prior month's 61K reading, though this precedes tomorrow's critical nonfarm payrolls report where consensus expects just 60K amid widespread tariff-related uncertainty. The mortgage rate climb to 6.45% from 6.37% marks the highest level since late March, while crude inventories declined less than forecast at -2.314 million barrels versus the -3.3 million estimate, suggesting demand remains softer than energy markets anticipated. Tomorrow's labor market data takes center stage with the 60K payrolls estimate representing what would be the weakest monthly gain since December 2020's pandemic-era decline, while average hourly earnings are projected to accelerate to 3.8% year-over-year from 3.5%, a combination that could complicate the Fed's rate outlook given that three Fed speakers including Williams and Kashkari appear today ahead of four more tomorrow.
Exchange-traded funds showed mixed positioning in mega-cap technology during the period, with 4,925 ETFs adding shares of semiconductor name AVGO while 2,791 removed positions, and similar two-way flow in META (4,329 adding vs 2,611 removing) and memory chip maker MU (4,257 adding). The institutional flow suggests selective rotation within technology and healthcare sectors rather than broad directional bets, as ETFs split evenly overall with 10 adding and 10 removing positions across tracked names.
AVGO
Broadcom Inc.
β
META
Meta Platforms, Inc.
β
MU
Micron Technology, Inc.
β
INTC
Intel Corporation
β
CSCO
Cisco Systems, Inc.
β
AVGO
Broadcom Inc.
β
META
Meta Platforms, Inc.
β
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
β
GILD
Gilead Sciences, Inc.
β
UNH
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated
β
Rep. Robert E. Latta made multiple purchases of FMAO stock during the reporting period. Meanwhile, Reps. Kevin Hern and Lloyd Smucker reduced positions in financial and telecommunications holdings, with Hern selling Goldman Sachs (GS) and Smucker exiting Fulton Financial (FULT) and Verizon (VZ).
FMAO
Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
FMAO
Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
FMAO
Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
β
CONGRESS
MAR
Marriott International, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
GS
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
FULT
Fulton Financial Corporation
β
CONGRESS
VZ
Verizon Communications Inc.
β
CONGRESS
PRU
Prudential Financial, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
ENBP
ENB Financial Corp
β
CONGRESS
During the latest reporting period, 24 insiders at EQT collectively added to their positions while 343 insiders at CRWV sold shares totaling $1.4 billion in the largest cluster selling activity. On the distribution side, 42 insiders at CVNA collectively sold $1.9 billion worth of shares, marking the highest dollar value among all reported transactions.
SVRE
SaverOne 2014 Ltd
β
INSIDER
EQT
EQT Corporation
β
INSIDER
NOW
ServiceNow, Inc.
β
INSIDER
PRIM
Primoris Services Corporation
β
INSIDER
ALKT
Alkami Technology, Inc.
β
INSIDER
CVNA
Carvana Co.
β
INSIDER
CRWV
CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock
β
INSIDER
CAR
Avis Budget Group, Inc.
β
INSIDER
STKL
SunOpta Inc.
β
INSIDER
UTHR
United Therapeutics Corporation
β
INSIDER
Leading Wednesday's session, HUT surged 53.4%, FLEX climbed 48.7%, and AUR advanced 42.2%. With 316 companies reporting today, institutional activity shows accumulation in MELI and NET ahead of their prints, while smart money has reduced positions in MCD and GILD entering their earnings. Tomorrow's calendar lightens to 57 reports as earnings season continues.
HUT
Hut 8 Corp.
β
MISS
+53.4%
FLEX
Flex Ltd.
β
BEAT
+48.7%
AUR
Aurora Innovation, Inc.
β
BEAT
+42.2%
IONQ-WT
IonQ, Inc. WT
β
BEAT
+37.4%
LIFE
Ethos Technologies Inc.
β
MISS
+30.8%
MNKD
MannKind Corporation
β
MISS
+29.4%
TBLA
Taboola.com Ltd.
β
BEAT
+26.7%
CORZ
Core Scientific, Inc.
β
MISS
+25.9%
TGTX
TG Therapeutics, Inc.
β
MISS
+25.0%
IONQ
IonQ, Inc.
β
BEAT
+24.8%
MELI
MercadoLibre, Inc.
β
NET
Cloudflare, Inc.
β
ABNB
Airbnb, Inc.
β
CRWV
CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock
β
MCHP
Microchip Technology Incorporated
β
GWW
W.W. Grainger, Inc.
β
TRGP
Targa Resources Corp.
β
COIN
Coinbase Global, Inc.
β
DDOG
Datadog, Inc.
β
ARGX
argenx SE
β
RKLB
Rocket Lab USA, Inc.
β
XYZ
Block, Inc.
β
EXPE
Expedia Group, Inc.
β
PBA
Pembina Pipeline Corporation
β
MTSI
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc.
β
ENB
Enbridge Inc.
β
BAM
Brookfield Asset Management Ltd.
β
UI
Ubiquiti Inc.
β
PAA
Plains All American Pipeline, L.P.
β
WULF
TeraWulf Inc.
β
MSGS
Madison Square Garden Sports Corp.
β
JHG
Janus Henderson Group plc
β
FLR
Fluor Corporation
β
ROAD
Construction Partners, Inc.
β
STWD
Starwood Property Trust, Inc.
β
Smart money flows reveal divergent positioning across market participant types as institutional investors selectively rotate within technology while corporate insiders engage in significant distribution. ETF activity showed mixed signals in mega-cap technology, with 4,925 funds adding shares of Broadcom (AVGO) while 2,791 removed positions, and similar two-way flow in Meta Platforms (META) with 4,329 adding versus 2,611 removing. Corporate insiders executed substantial selling, led by 42 insiders at Carvana (CVNA) collectively distributing $1.9 billion worth of shares and 343 insiders at Crown Castle (CRWV) selling $1.4 billion in aggregate. Congressional activity remained modest, with Rep. Robert E. Latta making multiple purchases of Farmers & Merchants Bancorp (FMAO) while Rep. Kevin Hern sold Goldman Sachs (GS) and Rep. Lloyd Smucker exited positions in Fulton Financial (FULT) and Verizon (VZ). The 30 accumulation signals concentrated in Meta Platforms (META), ServiceNow (NOW), and Alkami Technology (ALKT) contrast sharply with zero distribution signals, suggesting institutional buyers are selectively building positions despite aggressive insider selling elsewhere. Market volatility indicators paint a picture of relative calm that contrasts with underlying sector dispersion and concentration risk. The VIX at 17.38 declined 2.5% over the past week while the MOVE index plunged 15.1% to 13.45, reaching historically low levels that suggest fixed income traders are pricing minimal turbulence ahead. Leadership remains heavily concentrated in technology-oriented sectors, with semiconductors showing universal strength at 100% participation and broader technology at 77%, while defensive areas like consumer staples and healthcare languish in the lower third of performance rankings. The Nasdaq's 61% breadth reading outpaces the Dow's 53%, reinforcing the divergence between innovation-focused growth names and traditional large-cap value. Transportation stocks showing 74% participation provide an outlier signal, while consumer discretionary at just 40% highlights investor caution around spending-dependent businesses. The SPY strength at 57.1% suggests the broader market remains in neutral territory despite pockets of concentrated strength. Tomorrow's nonfarm payrolls report emerges as the critical catalyst, with consensus expecting just 60K jobs addedβwhat would mark the weakest monthly gain since December 2020's pandemic-era declineβfollowing yesterday's ADP employment figure of 109K that significantly exceeded the 99K estimate and nearly doubled the prior month's 61K reading. The labor market data arrives amid widespread tariff-related uncertainty and precedes appearances from seven Fed speakers across today and tomorrow, including Williams and Kashkari, creating potential for volatility despite the MOVE index reaching historically subdued levels. The mortgage rate climb to 6.45% from 6.37% marks the highest level since late March, while average hourly earnings are projected to accelerate to 3.8% year-over-year from 3.5%, a combination that could complicate the Fed's rate outlook. With 316
Key themes: Watch convergence signals closely. Stocks where insiders, institutions, and politicians agree tend to show stronger directional moves.