Know What They Know
π· PIG ROAST
π¬ Word on the Street
Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-FL) just scooped up Carrier Global (CARR) stock worth up to $50,000 while 44 insiders at Carvana (CVNA) collectively dumped $1.9 billionβbecause nothing says "confidence" like executives racing for the exits in bulk. Meanwhile, NVIDIA is apparently writing billion-dollar checks for fiber optics companies that are already up 1,394% this year, and Cathie Wood is selling Rocket Lab (RKLB) near all-time highs after a 276% run, which means either she's finally discovered profit-taking or something interesting is brewing. Here's what smart money actually did with their portfolios today.
The Big Idea: When insiders, institutions, AND politicians all bet on the same stock? That's convergence β and historically, these aligned signals tend to pack more punch than solo moves. We track the smart money so you don't have to.
ETF Institutional funds adding/removing positions
INSIDER Corporate executives buying/selling their own stock
CONGRESS Politicians making trades (yes, we see you)
β² + Buying Rising Stock: Smart money accumulating as price rises β ideal alignment
+ Buying Falling Stock: Smart money accumulating while price drops β falling knife risk
β² - Selling Rising Stock: Smart money exiting while price still rising β warning signal
- Selling Falling Stock: Smart money exiting as price drops β confirms downtrend
The Bottom Line: Convergence + aligned momentum = strongest setups. Convergence + divergent momentum = proceed with caution. This isn't financial advice β it's intelligence. What you do with it is on you.
META
Meta Platforms, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
NOW
ServiceNow, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
ALKT
Alkami Technology, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
CRM
Salesforce, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
KO
The Coca-Cola Company
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
ABT
Abbott Laboratories
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
RTX
RTX Corporation
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
JNJ
Johnson & Johnson
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
HON
Honeywell International Inc.
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
The VIX remains in normal territory at 17.38, declining 2.5% over the past week as equity market concerns have moderated. Meanwhile, the MOVE index measuring Treasury volatility rose 7.1% to 14.03, though it remains at low absolute levels, indicating that bond markets are experiencing a modest uptick in rate uncertainty while equity volatility continues to ease. This divergence suggests investors are currently more focused on interest rate dynamics than equity-specific risks.
The market is showing a narrow leadership pattern with Semiconductors, Real Estate, and Technology sectors advancing strongly while Healthcare, Consumer Discretionary, and Utilities lag significantly behind. Index breadth readings reveal moderate participation across major benchmarks, with SPY at 51% and QQQ at 58%, though Transports stand out at 72% participation. This concentration in cyclical growth sectors alongside mixed breadth suggests selective strength rather than broad-based market participation.
The Federal Reserve's net liquidity stood at $6.70 trillion as of April 29, declining $7.5 billion from the prior week, indicating a modest tightening in overall financial system liquidity. The next H.4.1 report, scheduled for release on Thursday, May 7, will show whether this contraction continuesβhistorically, declining Fed liquidity has corresponded with increased volatility and tighter market conditions.
Existing home sales in April came in slightly below the 4.05M estimate at 4.02M, with the month-over-month gain of just 0.2% falling well short of the 2.1% expected increase, suggesting the housing market remains sluggish despite inventory constraints easingβsales have now hovered near 4 million for months, levels last consistently seen during the 2010-2011 post-financial crisis period. Today's CPI data takes center stage with headline inflation expected to tick up to 3.7% year-over-year from 3.3% and the monthly reading forecast at 0.3% versus 0.2% prior, while core inflation is projected to accelerate to 2.7% annually from 2.6%, a potential concern for Fed officials including Williams and Goolsbee who speak today amid recent signs that disinflation progress has stalled. Tomorrow's PPI data follows with estimates calling for a 0.5% monthly increase matching the prior month, while multiple Fed speakers including Kashkari, Collins, and Logan will likely address inflation persistence given that the Economic Surprise Index has cooled slightly to +1.2 from +1.3 last week, reflecting a series of data points coming in closer to or below expectations.
Exchange-traded funds demonstrated conflicting sentiment in Q4, with technology names META and INTC appearing on both heavy accumulation and distribution lists, while 4,543 ETFs added META positions versus 2,464 reducing them. The institutional flow pattern shows no clear sector rotation, as the technology sector dominated both buying and selling activity, with healthcare name LLY being the only non-tech stock among the most-reduced positions.
META
Meta Platforms, Inc.
β
INTC
Intel Corporation
β
CSCO
Cisco Systems, Inc.
β
JNJ
Johnson & Johnson
β
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
β
META
Meta Platforms, Inc.
β
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
β
INTC
Intel Corporation
β
AMGN
Amgen Inc.
β
JNJ
Johnson & Johnson
β
Congressional trading activity shows Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar made two separate purchases of CARR (Carrier Global Corporation), while Rep. Gilbert Cisneros both added a position in DASH (DoorDash) and reduced holdings in FLEX (Flex Ltd.). Sale activity included Rep. Greg Stanton divesting from TCNNF (Trulieve Cannabis) and Rep. Michael McCaul reducing his position in AER (AerCap Holdings).
CARR
Carrier Global Corporation
β
CONGRESS
DASH
DoorDash, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
CARR
Carrier Global Corporation
β
CONGRESS
MKL
Markel Corporation
β
CONGRESS
FIHBX
Federated Hermes Institutional High Yield Bond Fund Institutional Shares
β
CONGRESS
TCNNF
Trulieve Cannabis Corp.
β
CONGRESS
FLEX
Flex Ltd.
β
CONGRESS
AER
AerCap Holdings N.V.
β
CONGRESS
CLH
Clean Harbors, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
MORN
Morningstar, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
Company insiders executed significant cluster selling activity this period, with 403 insiders at CRWV offloading $1.9B in shares, 44 insiders at CVNA selling $1.9B, and 18 insiders at LTH reducing positions by $735.7M. On the accumulation side, smaller clusters of 2-4 insiders added positions at SVRE, NOW, and NOMD, though transaction values were not disclosed for these purchases.
SVRE
SaverOne 2014 Ltd
β
INSIDER
NOW
ServiceNow, Inc.
β
INSIDER
NOMD
Nomad Foods Limited
β
INSIDER
PRIM
Primoris Services Corporation
β
INSIDER
AMGN
Amgen Inc.
β
INSIDER
CVNA
Carvana Co.
β
INSIDER
CRWV
CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock
β
INSIDER
LTH
Life Time Group Holdings, Inc.
β
INSIDER
CRGY
Crescent Energy Company
β
INSIDER
SEI
Solaris Energy Infrastructure, Inc.
β
INSIDER
84 companies report earnings today, with institutional tracking showing accumulation signals in JD and VOD ahead of their results, while FNV and JBS display distribution patterns. Yesterday's session saw significant moves with KEEL surging 50.4%, ABCL advancing 31.9%, and CRCL climbing 27.5%. Tomorrow's calendar includes 75 companies scheduled to report quarterly results.
KEEL
Keel Infrastructure Corp.
β
MISS
+50.4%
ABCL
AbCellera Biologics Inc.
β
BEAT
+31.9%
CRCL
Circle Internet Group
β
BEAT
+27.5%
CEVA
CEVA, Inc.
β
BEAT
+26.7%
QUBT
Quantum Computing, Inc.
β
BEAT
+26.3%
RGTI
Rigetti Computing, Inc.
β
BEAT
+24.8%
HLIT
Harmonic Inc.
β
BEAT
+18.0%
NOVT
Novanta Inc.
β
BEAT
+14.9%
ACHR
Archer Aviation Inc.
β
MISS
+14.5%
PPTA
Perpetua Resources Corp.
β
MISS
+13.9%
JD
JD.com, Inc.
β
VOD
Vodafone Group Public Limited Company
β
Q
Qnity Electronics, Inc.
β
DUKB
Duke Energy Corporation 5.625%
β
NXT
Nextpower Inc.
β
BNT
Brookfield Wealth Solutions Ltd.
β
SKM
SK Telecom Co.,Ltd
β
OKLO
Oklo Inc.
β
OXLCI
Oxford Lane Capital Corp.
β
OXLCN
Oxford Lane Capital Corp.
β
OXLCZ
Oxford Lane Capital Corp. 5.00% Notes due 2027
β
OXLCL
Oxford Lane Capital Corp. 6.75% Notes due 2031
β
ARMK
Aramark
β
CAMT
Camtek Ltd.
β
QBTS
D-Wave Quantum Inc.
β
CSCO
Cisco Systems, Inc.
β
SMFG
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc.
β
MFC
Manulife Financial Corporation
β
RCB
Ready Capital Corporation
β
TSEM
Tower Semiconductor Ltd.
β
DT
Dynatrace, Inc.
β
ICLR
ICON Public Limited Company
β
PSEC-PA
Prospect Capital Corporation
β
ICL
ICL Group Ltd
β
CORZZ
Core Scientific, Inc. Tranche 2 Warrants
β
Smart money flows are painting a picture of selective positioning amid heightened caution in specific pockets of the market. Company insiders executed dramatic cluster selling, with 403 insiders at CRWV offloading $1.9B in shares, 44 insiders at CVNA selling $1.9B, and 18 insiders at LTH reducing positions by $735.7M, signaling significant profit-taking at these names. Congressional activity shows more measured positioning, with Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar making two separate purchases of Carrier Global Corporation (CARR), while Rep. Gilbert Cisneros both added a position in DoorDash (DASH) and reduced holdings in Flex Ltd. (FLEX), and Rep. Greg Stanton divested from Trulieve Cannabis (TCNNF) as Rep. Michael McCaul reduced his position in AerCap Holdings (AER). Institutional flows through exchange-traded funds revealed conflicting sentiment in Q4, particularly around technology names, with META and INTC appearing on both heavy accumulation and distribution lists as 4,543 ETFs added META positions versus 2,464 reducing them. The technology sector dominated both buying and selling activity, with healthcare name LLY being the only non-tech stock among the most-reduced positions, suggesting institutions are rebalancing within rather than rotating out of growth sectors. Current accumulation signals stand at 30 names led by META, NOW, and ALKT, while distribution signals register at zero. Market structure reveals a narrow leadership pattern that's creating bifurcated performance across sectors. Semiconductors, Real Estate, and Technology sectors are advancing strongly while Healthcare, Consumer Discretionary, and Utilities lag significantly behind, a concentration pattern reinforced by index breadth readings showing SPY at 51% and QQQ at 58%, though Transports stand out at 72% participation. This selective strength rather than broad-based market participation is unfolding as the VIX remains in normal territory at 17.38, declining 2.5% over the past week as equity market concerns have moderated. However, the MOVE index measuring Treasury volatility rose 7.1% to 14.03, creating a divergence that suggests investors are currently more focused on interest rate dynamics than equity-specific risks. This split in volatility measures coincides with existing home sales in April coming in at 4.02M, slightly below the 4.05M estimate, with the month-over-month gain of just 0.2% falling well short of the 2.1% expected increase, levels last consistently seen during the 2010-2011 post-financial crisis period. Today's CPI data takes center stage as the critical catalyst that could either validate or challenge current positioning, with headline inflation expected to tick up to 3.7% year-over-year from 3.3% and the monthly reading forecast at 0.3% versus 0.2% prior, while core inflation is projected to accelerate to 2.7% annually from 2.6%. Fed officials including Williams and Goolsbee speak today amid recent signs that disinflation progress has stalled, which could provide additional
Key themes: Watch convergence signals closely. Stocks where insiders, institutions, and politicians agree tend to show stronger directional moves.