Know What They Know
🐷 PIG ROAST
💬 Word on the Street
While Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-FL) picked up shares of Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) worth up to $50,000, 44 insiders at Carvana Co. (CVNA) were heading for the exits with $1.9 billion in sales—the kind of lopsided action that makes you wonder who knows something the rest of us don't. Meanwhile, smart money dumped $5.3 billion more than they bought today, even as the VIX cooled off to 17.4, suggesting the big players might be less worried about volatility and more interested in locking in gains. Here's what smart money is doing today.
The Big Idea: When insiders, institutions, AND politicians all bet on the same stock? That's convergence — and historically, these aligned signals tend to pack more punch than solo moves. We track the smart money so you don't have to.
ETF Institutional funds adding/removing positions
INSIDER Corporate executives buying/selling their own stock
CONGRESS Politicians making trades (yes, we see you)
▲ + Buying Rising Stock: Smart money accumulating as price rises — ideal alignment
+ Buying Falling Stock: Smart money accumulating while price drops — falling knife risk
▲ - Selling Rising Stock: Smart money exiting while price still rising — warning signal
- Selling Falling Stock: Smart money exiting as price drops — confirms downtrend
The Bottom Line: Convergence + aligned momentum = strongest setups. Convergence + divergent momentum = proceed with caution. This isn't financial advice — it's intelligence. What you do with it is on you.
META
Meta Platforms, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
NOW
ServiceNow, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
ALKT
Alkami Technology, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
CRM
Salesforce, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
KO
The Coca-Cola Company
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
ABT
Abbott Laboratories
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
RTX
RTX Corporation
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
JNJ
Johnson & Johnson
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
HON
Honeywell International Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
The VIX declined 2.5% week-over-week to 17.38, remaining within the normal range that suggests neither complacency nor elevated fear among equity market participants. Meanwhile, the MOVE index, which measures bond market volatility expectations, rose 8.3% to 15.09 despite remaining at historically low levels, indicating a modest uptick in fixed income uncertainty that contrasts with the relatively stable equity volatility picture. This divergence reflects differing sentiment between equity and bond markets, with fixed income traders pricing in slightly more uncertainty than their equity counterparts.
Market breadth presents a mixed picture with the Nasdaq showing relatively stronger participation at 58% compared to the S&P 500's 51% and Dow's 50%, while transports display notably higher breadth at 67%. Sector performance reveals a concentrated rally in Semiconductors, Real Estate, and Technology capturing the majority of upside, while defensive areas including Healthcare, Utilities, and Consumer Discretionary show significantly weaker participation below 31%. This divergence between growth-oriented technology sectors and traditional defensive plays, combined with modest overall market breadth, suggests selectivity rather than broad-based market strength.
As of April 29, Fed net liquidity stands at $6.70 trillion, down $7.5 billion from the previous week, representing a modest contraction in system-wide liquidity conditions. The next H.4.1 release drops Thursday, May 7, which will show whether this liquidity drain continues—historically, declining liquidity has preceded periods of increased market volatility and tighter financial conditions.
Yesterday's inflation data delivered a clean sweep of misses on the headline figures, with both core CPI and core inflation rising 0.4% month-over-month against 0.3% estimates—the hottest monthly core reading since November 2024—while year-over-year headline inflation accelerated to 3.8% from 3.3%, marking the highest level since October 2023 and extending the reacceleration trend now entering its third consecutive month. The combined upside surprises of 0.1 percentage point across multiple core measures pushed rate-cut expectations further into late 2025, with fed funds futures now pricing less than 30% odds of any easing before December. Today's focus shifts to producer prices where core PPI is estimated at 0.3% versus last month's 0.1%, followed by tomorrow's retail sales data that could show significant deceleration from March's strong 1.7% print to just 0.5%, while three Fed speakers today and three tomorrow will likely address whether yesterday's stubborn inflation data warrants holding rates steady through year-end.
Exchange-traded funds demonstrated mixed positioning in Q4, with technology names META and INTC drawing the most additions (4,658 and 4,405 ETFs respectively) while simultaneously seeing significant removals (2,508 and 2,069 ETFs), suggesting rotation within the sector rather than broad-based accumulation. The institutional flow data shows split conviction across mega-cap technology and networking equipment stocks, with pharmaceutical name LLY appearing among the top reductions as 2,380 ETFs trimmed healthcare exposure.
META
Meta Platforms, Inc.
⭐
INTC
Intel Corporation
⭐
CSCO
Cisco Systems, Inc.
⭐
JNJ
Johnson & Johnson
⭐
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
⭐
META
Meta Platforms, Inc.
⭐
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
⭐
INTC
Intel Corporation
⭐
AMGN
Amgen Inc.
⭐
JNJ
Johnson & Johnson
⭐
Congressional trading activity shows Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar made multiple purchases of CARR (Carrier Global), while Rep. Gilbert Cisneros took opposing positions by purchasing DASH (DoorDash) and selling FLEX (Flex Ltd). Sales activity included Rep. Greg Stanton disposing of TCNNF (Trulieve Cannabis) and Rep. April Delaney reducing her position in MORN (Morningstar).
CARR
Carrier Global Corporation
⭐
CONGRESS
DASH
DoorDash, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
CARR
Carrier Global Corporation
⭐
CONGRESS
MKL
Markel Corporation
⭐
CONGRESS
STE
STERIS plc
⭐
CONGRESS
TCNNF
Trulieve Cannabis Corp.
⭐
CONGRESS
FLEX
Flex Ltd.
⭐
CONGRESS
MORN
Morningstar, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
SCI
Service Corporation International
⭐
CONGRESS
AER
AerCap Holdings N.V.
⭐
CONGRESS
Recent insider filings show concentrated cluster activity with 8 insiders at PRIM acquiring shares, while selling activity clustered at CVNA where 44 insiders offloaded $1.9B in holdings and CRWV where 391 insiders distributed $1.8B. The data reflects 15 accumulation signals balanced against 15 distribution signals across tracked securities.
NOW
ServiceNow, Inc.
⭐
INSIDER
NOMD
Nomad Foods Limited
⭐
INSIDER
PRIM
Primoris Services Corporation
⭐
INSIDER
AMGN
Amgen Inc.
⭐
INSIDER
ALKT
Alkami Technology, Inc.
⭐
INSIDER
CVNA
Carvana Co.
⭐
INSIDER
CRWV
CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock
⭐
INSIDER
LTH
Life Time Group Holdings, Inc.
⭐
INSIDER
CRGY
Crescent Energy Company
⭐
INSIDER
SEI
Solaris Energy Infrastructure, Inc.
⭐
INSIDER
Looking ahead to today's earnings calendar with 97 companies reporting, Cisco Systems (CSCO) and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (SMFG) are showing accumulation patterns heading into their releases, while Takeda Pharmaceutical (TAK) and Korea Electric Power (KEP) have experienced recent distribution activity. Yesterday's session saw significant momentum in QBTS, which surged 30.5%, alongside strong moves in LEGN and BETA. Tomorrow's slate includes 77 companies set to report quarterly results.
QBTS
D-Wave Quantum Inc.
⭐
BEAT
+30.5%
LEGN
Legend Biotech Corporation
⭐
MISS
+27.2%
BETA
BETA Technologies, Inc.
⭐
BEAT
+24.7%
OKLO
Oklo Inc.
⭐
BEAT
+22.6%
AMBQ
Ambiq Micro, Inc.
⭐
MISS
+18.9%
ATRO
Astronics Corporation
⭐
BEAT
+16.7%
AIP
Arteris, Inc.
⭐
BEAT
+16.2%
SION
Sionna Therapeutics, Inc.
⭐
MISS
+15.7%
VPG
Vishay Precision Group, Inc.
⭐
BEAT
+13.3%
VIA
Via Transportation, Inc.
⭐
BEAT
+12.1%
CSCO
Cisco Systems, Inc.
⭐
SMFG
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc.
⭐
MFC
Manulife Financial Corporation
⭐
RCB
Ready Capital Corporation
⭐
TSEM
Tower Semiconductor Ltd.
⭐
PSLV
Sprott Physical Silver Trust
⭐
OXLCN
Oxford Lane Capital Corp.
⭐
AG
First Majestic Silver Corp.
⭐
DT
Dynatrace, Inc.
⭐
ICLR
ICON Public Limited Company
⭐
PSEC-PA
Prospect Capital Corporation
⭐
OXLCG
Oxford Lane Capital Corp. 7.95% Notes due 2032
⭐
ICL
ICL Group Ltd
⭐
CORZZ
Core Scientific, Inc. Tranche 2 Warrants
⭐
BPYPO
Brookfield Property Partners L.P.
⭐
AMAT
Applied Materials, Inc.
⭐
BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
⭐
BN
Brookfield Corporation
⭐
MNST
Monster Beverage Corporation
⭐
CVE
Cenovus Energy Inc.
⭐
CHT
Chunghwa Telecom Co., Ltd.
⭐
NVMI
Nova Ltd.
⭐
BNT
Brookfield Wealth Solutions Ltd.
⭐
TIGO
Millicom International Cellular S.A.
⭐
GSAT
Globalstar, Inc.
⭐
Smart money flows are painting a picture of selective technology positioning amid mixed conviction signals. Exchange-traded funds added META and INTC most aggressively in Q4 with 4,658 and 4,405 additions respectively, though simultaneous removals of 2,508 and 2,069 funds suggest internal rotation rather than unified accumulation. Insider activity shows stark divergence, with 8 insiders clustering purchases at PRIM while massive distribution unfolded at CVNA where 44 insiders offloaded $1.9 billion and CRWV where 391 insiders distributed $1.8 billion. Congressional trades remain scattered, with Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar purchasing CARR (Carrier Global) multiple times while Rep. Gilbert Cisneros took opposing directional bets by buying DASH (DoorDash) and selling FLEX (Flex Ltd), and Rep. Greg Stanton sold TCNNF (Trulieve Cannabis). The current tally of 15 accumulation signals balanced against 15 distribution signals across tracked securities reflects this cautious positioning, though broader accumulation signals reached 30 with META, NOW, and ALKT topping the list. Market structure reveals a technology-led advance with notably thin participation beneath the surface. The VIX declined 2.5% week-over-week to 17.38, suggesting stable equity sentiment, while the MOVE index measuring bond volatility jumped 8.3% to 15.09, creating a divergence that indicates fixed income traders are pricing in more uncertainty than equity participants. Breadth metrics confirm this selectivity, with SPY strength registering just 51.1% and the S&P 500 at 51% while the Nasdaq showed marginally better participation at 58%. Sector performance concentrated heavily in Semiconductors, Real Estate, and Technology capturing the majority of gains, while defensive sectors including Healthcare, Utilities, and Consumer Discretionary languished below 31% participation. This growth-versus-defense split, combined with modest overall breadth, suggests institutional capital is rotating into specific technology winners rather than driving broad-based market strength. The catalyst landscape centers on inflation persistence and its implications for monetary policy timing. Yesterday's CPI data delivered a complete miss with core inflation rising 0.4% month-over-month against 0.3% estimates, marking the hottest monthly core reading since November 2024, while year-over-year headline inflation accelerated to 3.8% from 3.3%, the highest level since October 2023 and the third consecutive month of reacceleration. Fed funds futures now price less than 30% odds of any rate cut before December, pushing easing expectations deep into late 2025. Today's producer price data estimates core PPI at 0.3% versus last month's 0.1%, with three Fed speakers scheduled today and three tomorrow likely to address whether stubborn inflation warrants holding rates steady through year-end. Tomorrow's retail sales forecast shows significant deceleration to 0.5% from March's 1.7% print, which could provide either confirmation of cooling demand or further evidence of economic resilience. On the earnings front,
Key themes: Watch convergence signals closely. Stocks where insiders, institutions, and politicians agree tend to show stronger directional moves.