The Edge

🐷 PIG ROAST

💬 Word on the Street

While Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-FL) picked up shares of Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) worth up to $50,000, 44 insiders at Carvana Co. (CVNA) were heading for the exits with $1.9 billion in sales—the kind of lopsided action that makes you wonder who knows something the rest of us don't. Meanwhile, smart money dumped $5.3 billion more than they bought today, even as the VIX cooled off to 17.4, suggesting the big players might be less worried about volatility and more interested in locking in gains. Here's what smart money is doing today.

The VIX declined 2.5% week-over-week to 17.38, remaining within the normal range that suggests neither complacency nor elevated fear among equity market participants. Meanwhile, the MOVE index, which measures bond market volatility expectations, rose 8.3% to 15.09 despite remaining at historically low levels, indicating a modest uptick in fixed income uncertainty that contrasts with the relatively stable equity volatility picture. This divergence reflects differing sentiment between equity and bond markets, with fixed income traders pricing in slightly more uncertainty than their equity counterparts.

Market breadth presents a mixed picture with the Nasdaq showing relatively stronger participation at 58% compared to the S&P 500's 51% and Dow's 50%, while transports display notably higher breadth at 67%. Sector performance reveals a concentrated rally in Semiconductors, Real Estate, and Technology capturing the majority of upside, while defensive areas including Healthcare, Utilities, and Consumer Discretionary show significantly weaker participation below 31%. This divergence between growth-oriented technology sectors and traditional defensive plays, combined with modest overall market breadth, suggests selectivity rather than broad-based market strength.

As of April 29, Fed net liquidity stands at $6.70 trillion, down $7.5 billion from the previous week, representing a modest contraction in system-wide liquidity conditions. The next H.4.1 release drops Thursday, May 7, which will show whether this liquidity drain continues—historically, declining liquidity has preceded periods of increased market volatility and tighter financial conditions.

Yesterday's inflation data delivered a clean sweep of misses on the headline figures, with both core CPI and core inflation rising 0.4% month-over-month against 0.3% estimates—the hottest monthly core reading since November 2024—while year-over-year headline inflation accelerated to 3.8% from 3.3%, marking the highest level since October 2023 and extending the reacceleration trend now entering its third consecutive month. The combined upside surprises of 0.1 percentage point across multiple core measures pushed rate-cut expectations further into late 2025, with fed funds futures now pricing less than 30% odds of any easing before December. Today's focus shifts to producer prices where core PPI is estimated at 0.3% versus last month's 0.1%, followed by tomorrow's retail sales data that could show significant deceleration from March's strong 1.7% print to just 0.5%, while three Fed speakers today and three tomorrow will likely address whether yesterday's stubborn inflation data warrants holding rates steady through year-end.

Exchange-traded funds demonstrated mixed positioning in Q4, with technology names META and INTC drawing the most additions (4,658 and 4,405 ETFs respectively) while simultaneously seeing significant removals (2,508 and 2,069 ETFs), suggesting rotation within the sector rather than broad-based accumulation. The institutional flow data shows split conviction across mega-cap technology and networking equipment stocks, with pharmaceutical name LLY appearing among the top reductions as 2,380 ETFs trimmed healthcare exposure.

META Meta Platforms, Inc. ⭐

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -8.4% 3M -8.4% 1Y +2.5%

4658 ETFs • 0 shares

INTC Intel Corporation ⭐

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +19.3% 3M +132.5% 1Y +457.5%

4405 ETFs • 0 shares

CSCO Cisco Systems, Inc. ⭐

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +2.3% 3M +12.9% 1Y +56.3%

4239 ETFs • 0 shares

META Meta Platforms, Inc. ⭐

- Selling Falling Stock 5D -8.4% 3M -8.4% 1Y +2.5%

2508 ETFs • 0 shares

LLY Eli Lilly and Company ⭐

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +16.0% 3M -10.7% 1Y +20.9%

2380 ETFs • 0 shares

INTC Intel Corporation ⭐

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +19.3% 3M +132.5% 1Y +457.5%

2069 ETFs • 0 shares

Congressional trading activity shows Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar made multiple purchases of CARR (Carrier Global), while Rep. Gilbert Cisneros took opposing positions by purchasing DASH (DoorDash) and selling FLEX (Flex Ltd). Sales activity included Rep. Greg Stanton disposing of TCNNF (Trulieve Cannabis) and Rep. April Delaney reducing her position in MORN (Morningstar).

CARR Carrier Global Corporation ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +10.3% 3M +6.8% 1Y -3.5%

Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (Maria Elvira Salazar) • $15,001 - $50,000

DASH DoorDash, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -0.8% 3M -14.2% 1Y -18.2%

Rep. Gilbert Cisneros (Gilbert Cisneros) • $1,001 - $15,000

CARR Carrier Global Corporation ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +10.3% 3M +6.8% 1Y -3.5%

Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (Maria Elvira Salazar) • $1,001 - $15,000

TCNNF Trulieve Cannabis Corp. ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +5.4% 3M +30.1% 1Y +113.1%

Rep. Greg Stanton (Greg Stanton) • $15,001 - $50,000

FLEX Flex Ltd. ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +48.7% 3M +129.0% 1Y +268.2%

Rep. Gilbert Cisneros (Gilbert Cisneros) • $1,001 - $15,000

MORN Morningstar, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

- Selling Falling Stock 5D -10.6% 3M -7.1% 1Y -43.0%

Rep. April Delaney (April Delaney) • $1,001 - $15,000

Recent insider filings show concentrated cluster activity with 8 insiders at PRIM acquiring shares, while selling activity clustered at CVNA where 44 insiders offloaded $1.9B in holdings and CRWV where 391 insiders distributed $1.8B. The data reflects 15 accumulation signals balanced against 15 distribution signals across tracked securities.

NOW ServiceNow, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +0.2% 3M -19.8% 1Y -54.5%

3 insiders • $280.6M

NOMD Nomad Foods Limited ⭐ INSIDER

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +6.0% 3M -20.4% 1Y -47.6%

4 insiders • $89.7M

PRIM Primoris Services Corporation ⭐ INSIDER

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -39.0% 3M -30.2% 1Y +51.4%

8 insiders • $80.4M

CVNA Carvana Co. ⭐ INSIDER

- Selling Falling Stock 5D -1.8% 3M -0.9% 1Y +50.1%

44 insiders • $1.9B

CRWV CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +20.8% 3M +67.3% 1Y +170.5%

391 insiders • $1.8B

LTH Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +27.9% 3M +13.2% 1Y +2.2%

18 insiders • $735.7M

Looking ahead to today's earnings calendar with 97 companies reporting, Cisco Systems (CSCO) and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (SMFG) are showing accumulation patterns heading into their releases, while Takeda Pharmaceutical (TAK) and Korea Electric Power (KEP) have experienced recent distribution activity. Yesterday's session saw significant momentum in QBTS, which surged 30.5%, alongside strong moves in LEGN and BETA. Tomorrow's slate includes 77 companies set to report quarterly results.