Know What They Know
π· PIG ROAST
π¬ Word on the Street
While Rep. Gilbert Cisneros (D-CA) quietly added DoorDash (DASH) shares worth up to $15,000, insiders at Carvana (CVNA) sprinted for the exits with 44 sellers unloading $1.9 billionβthe kind of divergence that makes you wonder who knows something the rest of us don't. Meanwhile, the Fed pumped $9.6 billion into the system as smart money collectively pulled $5.2 billion off the table, creating the financial equivalent of someone refilling the punch bowl while the hosts are already calling their Ubers. Here's what smart money is doing today.
The Big Idea: When insiders, institutions, AND politicians all bet on the same stock? That's convergence β and historically, these aligned signals tend to pack more punch than solo moves. We track the smart money so you don't have to.
ETF Institutional funds adding/removing positions
INSIDER Corporate executives buying/selling their own stock
CONGRESS Politicians making trades (yes, we see you)
β² + Buying Rising Stock: Smart money accumulating as price rises β ideal alignment
+ Buying Falling Stock: Smart money accumulating while price drops β falling knife risk
β² - Selling Rising Stock: Smart money exiting while price still rising β warning signal
- Selling Falling Stock: Smart money exiting as price drops β confirms downtrend
The Bottom Line: Convergence + aligned momentum = strongest setups. Convergence + divergent momentum = proceed with caution. This isn't financial advice β it's intelligence. What you do with it is on you.
META
Meta Platforms, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
NOW
ServiceNow, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
ALKT
Alkami Technology, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
CRM
Salesforce, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
KO
The Coca-Cola Company
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
ABT
Abbott Laboratories
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
RTX
RTX Corporation
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
JNJ
Johnson & Johnson
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
HON
Honeywell International Inc.
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
The VIX remains in normal territory at 17.99, edging up 3.5% over the past week, suggesting equity market participants are maintaining relatively steady expectations for near-term stock price swings. Meanwhile, the MOVE index jumped 43.1% week-over-week to 19.25, though it remains at historically low levels, indicating that bond market volatility expectations are rising from an extremely subdued base but still reflect calm conditions in fixed income markets. The divergence shows equity volatility holding steady in its typical range while bond volatility is awakening from unusually quiet levels.
Market participation remains concentrated in narrow leadership, with Semiconductors, Real Estate, and Technology showing the strongest relative performance while defensive sectors like Healthcare and Utilities lag significantly. The divergence between QQQ's 54% breadth and SPY's 48% breadth reflects this technology-heavy concentration, though Transportation's 67% breadth suggests some broadening beyond mega-cap tech. This narrow leadership pattern, with only half of SPY components participating in the current move, indicates a market driven by specific sector momentum rather than broad-based strength.
**Fed Liquidity Update** As of May 6, net liquidity stands at $6.71 trillion, up $9.6 billion from the previous week, indicating a modest expansion in available market liquidity that historically correlates with supportive conditions for risk assets. The next H.4.1 Federal Reserve balance sheet release is scheduled for Thursday, May 14, which will reveal whether this liquidity injection trend continues or reverses.
April's producer prices surged well above expectations with headline PPI jumping 1.4% versus the 0.5% estimate and core PPI rising 1.0% against the 0.3% forecastβthe largest monthly gains since mid-2023βsignaling persistent pipeline inflation pressures that complicate the Fed's rate-cut calculus, while inventory draws in both crude oil and gasoline exceeded forecasts by roughly 2 million barrels each, reflecting tightening energy markets. Today's retail sales data (estimated +0.5% versus March's +1.7%) will test whether consumer spending momentum is cooling as expected, with initial jobless claims projected to tick up to 205K from 200K, while three Fed speakers including Vice Chair for Supervision Barr will likely address how yesterday's hot PPI print factors into monetary policy deliberations. Tomorrow's industrial production (forecast +0.3% after April's -0.5% contraction) and Empire State manufacturing index will provide insight into whether the manufacturing sector is stabilizing, as CFTC positioning data reveals traders remain net short the S&P 500 at -103.9K contracts while holding substantial long positions in crude oil at 178.8K contracts.
Institutional flows show a notable rotation into mega-cap technology, with META attracting net inflows from 2,254 ETFs and INTC from 2,417 ETFs, while CSCO saw 4,477 ETFs add positions. The mixed activity in META and INTCβboth appearing on buy and sell listsβsuggests portfolio rebalancing within the technology sector rather than broad-based accumulation, while healthcare name LLY experienced net outflows from institutions.
META
Meta Platforms, Inc.
β
INTC
Intel Corporation
β
CSCO
Cisco Systems, Inc.
β
JNJ
Johnson & Johnson
β
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
β
META
Meta Platforms, Inc.
β
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
β
INTC
Intel Corporation
β
AMGN
Amgen Inc.
β
JNJ
Johnson & Johnson
β
Recent congressional trading activity shows Rep. Gilbert Cisneros made opposing moves in technology and gig economy stocks, purchasing shares of DoorDash (DASH) while selling Flex Ltd (FLEX). Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar doubled down on Carrier Global (CARR) with two separate purchases, while selling activity included Rep. Greg Stanton disposing of Trulieve Cannabis (TCNNF) and Rep. April Delaney exiting Morningstar (MORN).
DASH
DoorDash, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
CARR
Carrier Global Corporation
β
CONGRESS
CARR
Carrier Global Corporation
β
CONGRESS
AESI
Atlas Energy Solutions Inc.
β
CONGRESS
FIHBX
Federated Hermes Institutional High Yield Bond Fund Institutional Shares
β
CONGRESS
TCNNF
Trulieve Cannabis Corp.
β
CONGRESS
FLEX
Flex Ltd.
β
CONGRESS
MORN
Morningstar, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
SCI
Service Corporation International
β
CONGRESS
CLH
Clean Harbors, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
Seven insiders at RSG, six at NOMD, and eight at PRIM have purchased shares or received awards in coordinated activity. On the distribution side, 44 insiders at CVNA sold $1.9B in stock, while CRWV saw 379 insiders offload $1.6B in shares, and 18 insiders at LTH disposed of $735.7M.
RSG
Republic Services, Inc.
β
INSIDER
NOMD
Nomad Foods Limited
β
INSIDER
PRIM
Primoris Services Corporation
β
INSIDER
ARTV
Artiva Biotherapeutics, Inc.
β
INSIDER
AMGN
Amgen Inc.
β
INSIDER
CVNA
Carvana Co.
β
INSIDER
CRWV
CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock
β
INSIDER
LTH
Life Time Group Holdings, Inc.
β
INSIDER
CRGY
Crescent Energy Company
β
INSIDER
SEI
Solaris Energy Infrastructure, Inc.
β
INSIDER
Eighty-four companies report earnings today, with AMAT and BABA showing recent accumulation activity ahead of their prints, while NU and HMC have experienced distribution from smart money positions. Yesterday's session saw significant volatility with EOSE surging 26.6% while WIX and EYE each dropped more than 25%. Eleven companies are scheduled to report tomorrow.
EOSE
Eos Energy Enterprises, Inc.
β
BEAT
+26.6%
WIX
Wix.com Ltd.
β
MISS
-26.0%
EYE
National Vision Holdings, Inc.
β
BEAT
-25.4%
EQPT
EquipmentShare.com Inc.
β
BEAT
+25.3%
TSEM
Tower Semiconductor Ltd.
β
BEAT
+24.9%
ICL
ICL Group Ltd
β
BEAT
+21.0%
BGSI
Boyd Group Services Inc.
β
BEAT
-16.6%
BIRK
Birkenstock Holding plc
β
MISS
-16.5%
STN
Stantec Inc.
β
BEAT
-15.3%
ASM
Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd.
β
BEAT
+15.0%
AMAT
Applied Materials, Inc.
β
BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
β
BN
Brookfield Corporation
β
MNST
Monster Beverage Corporation
β
CVE
Cenovus Energy Inc.
β
CHT
Chunghwa Telecom Co., Ltd.
β
NVMI
Nova Ltd.
β
BNT
Brookfield Wealth Solutions Ltd.
β
TIGO
Millicom International Cellular S.A.
β
GSAT
Globalstar, Inc.
β
SGHC
Super Group (SGHC) Limited
β
BLSH
Bullish
β
CELC
Celcuity Inc.
β
VSNT
Versant Media Group, Inc. Class A
β
BPYPN
Brookfield Property Partners L.P.
β
MFG
Mizuho Financial Group, Inc.
β
RBC
RBC Bearings Incorporated
β
FPS
Forgent Power Solutions, Inc.
β
LGN
Legence Corp. Class A Common stock
β
MANE
Veradermics, Incorporated
β
SGML
Sigma Lithium Corporation
β
USAS
Americas Gold and Silver Corporation
β
KALV
KalVista Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
β
WYFI
WhiteFiber, Inc. Ordinary Shares
β
ELE
Elemental Royalty Corporation Common Stock
β
Smart money positioning reveals a technology-focused rotation as institutions pile into mega-cap names, with META attracting net inflows from 2,254 ETFs, INTC from 2,417 ETFs, and CSCO from 4,477 ETFs, though the mixed buy-and-sell activity in META and INTC suggests portfolio rebalancing rather than conviction accumulation. Congressional activity mirrors this tech emphasis as Rep. Gilbert Cisneros purchased DoorDash (DASH) while selling Flex Ltd (FLEX), and Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar doubled down on Carrier Global (CARR) with two separate purchases, while Rep. Greg Stanton sold Trulieve Cannabis (TCNNF) and Rep. April Delaney exited Morningstar (MORN). On the insider front, coordinated buying emerged at RSG with seven participants, NOMD with six, and PRIM with eight, contrasted against massive distributions including 44 insiders at CVNA offloading $1.9 billion, 379 insiders at CRWV disposing of $1.6 billion, and 18 insiders at LTH selling $735.7 million in stock. Market conditions reflect narrow leadership concentration rather than broad-based strength, with SPY showing just 47.9% internal strength while participation remains dominated by Semiconductors, Real Estate, and Technology sectors as defensive Healthcare and Utilities lag significantly. The VIX holds steady at 17.99 in normal territory with a modest 3.5% weekly gain, while the MOVE index surged 43.1% week-over-week to 19.25, creating a divergence where equity volatility remains calm but bond market volatility awakens from historically subdued levels. This narrow market structure, with QQQ's 54% breadth outpacing SPY's 48% breadth, demonstrates technology-heavy concentration even as Transportation's 67% breadth hints at selective broadening beyond mega-cap dominance. The institutional rotation into healthcare faced headwinds as LLY experienced net outflows, reinforcing the technology-centric nature of current flows. Today's retail sales data represents a critical test of whether consumer spending momentum is cooling from March's robust 1.7% gain toward the estimated 0.5%, especially after April's producer prices delivered a significant inflation shock with headline PPI jumping 1.4% versus the 0.5% estimate and core PPI rising 1.0% against the 0.3% forecast. Eighty-four companies report earnings today with AMAT and BABA showing recent accumulation activity ahead of their prints while NU and HMC have experienced distribution, following yesterday's volatile session where EOSE surged 26.6% as WIX and EYE each plunged more than 25%. Three Fed speakers including Vice Chair for Supervision Barr will likely address how yesterday's hot PPI print factors into monetary policy decisions, while traders maintain net short positioning in the S&P 500 at negative 103.9K contracts even as crude oil longs reach 178.8K contracts amid inventory draws that exceeded forec
Key themes: Watch convergence signals closely. Stocks where insiders, institutions, and politicians agree tend to show stronger directional moves.