The Edge

🐷 PIG ROAST

💬 Word on the Street

While Rep. Gilbert Cisneros (D-CA) quietly added DoorDash (DASH) shares worth up to $15,000, insiders at Carvana (CVNA) sprinted for the exits with 44 sellers unloading $1.9 billion—the kind of divergence that makes you wonder who knows something the rest of us don't. Meanwhile, the Fed pumped $9.6 billion into the system as smart money collectively pulled $5.2 billion off the table, creating the financial equivalent of someone refilling the punch bowl while the hosts are already calling their Ubers. Here's what smart money is doing today.

The VIX remains in normal territory at 17.99, edging up 3.5% over the past week, suggesting equity market participants are maintaining relatively steady expectations for near-term stock price swings. Meanwhile, the MOVE index jumped 43.1% week-over-week to 19.25, though it remains at historically low levels, indicating that bond market volatility expectations are rising from an extremely subdued base but still reflect calm conditions in fixed income markets. The divergence shows equity volatility holding steady in its typical range while bond volatility is awakening from unusually quiet levels.

Market participation remains concentrated in narrow leadership, with Semiconductors, Real Estate, and Technology showing the strongest relative performance while defensive sectors like Healthcare and Utilities lag significantly. The divergence between QQQ's 54% breadth and SPY's 48% breadth reflects this technology-heavy concentration, though Transportation's 67% breadth suggests some broadening beyond mega-cap tech. This narrow leadership pattern, with only half of SPY components participating in the current move, indicates a market driven by specific sector momentum rather than broad-based strength.

**Fed Liquidity Update** As of May 6, net liquidity stands at $6.71 trillion, up $9.6 billion from the previous week, indicating a modest expansion in available market liquidity that historically correlates with supportive conditions for risk assets. The next H.4.1 Federal Reserve balance sheet release is scheduled for Thursday, May 14, which will reveal whether this liquidity injection trend continues or reverses.

April's producer prices surged well above expectations with headline PPI jumping 1.4% versus the 0.5% estimate and core PPI rising 1.0% against the 0.3% forecast—the largest monthly gains since mid-2023—signaling persistent pipeline inflation pressures that complicate the Fed's rate-cut calculus, while inventory draws in both crude oil and gasoline exceeded forecasts by roughly 2 million barrels each, reflecting tightening energy markets. Today's retail sales data (estimated +0.5% versus March's +1.7%) will test whether consumer spending momentum is cooling as expected, with initial jobless claims projected to tick up to 205K from 200K, while three Fed speakers including Vice Chair for Supervision Barr will likely address how yesterday's hot PPI print factors into monetary policy deliberations. Tomorrow's industrial production (forecast +0.3% after April's -0.5% contraction) and Empire State manufacturing index will provide insight into whether the manufacturing sector is stabilizing, as CFTC positioning data reveals traders remain net short the S&P 500 at -103.9K contracts while holding substantial long positions in crude oil at 178.8K contracts.

Institutional flows show a notable rotation into mega-cap technology, with META attracting net inflows from 2,254 ETFs and INTC from 2,417 ETFs, while CSCO saw 4,477 ETFs add positions. The mixed activity in META and INTC—both appearing on buy and sell lists—suggests portfolio rebalancing within the technology sector rather than broad-based accumulation, while healthcare name LLY experienced net outflows from institutions.

META Meta Platforms, Inc. ⭐

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +0.6% 3M -7.8% 1Y -3.4%

4938 ETFs • 0 shares

INTC Intel Corporation ⭐

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +6.4% 3M +149.1% 1Y +442.3%

4628 ETFs • 0 shares

CSCO Cisco Systems, Inc. ⭐

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +11.2% 3M +19.1% 1Y +67.2%

4477 ETFs • 0 shares

META Meta Platforms, Inc. ⭐

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +0.6% 3M -7.8% 1Y -3.4%

2684 ETFs • 0 shares

LLY Eli Lilly and Company ⭐

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +2.9% 3M +0.2% 1Y +35.2%

2515 ETFs • 0 shares

INTC Intel Corporation ⭐

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +6.4% 3M +149.1% 1Y +442.3%

2211 ETFs • 0 shares

Recent congressional trading activity shows Rep. Gilbert Cisneros made opposing moves in technology and gig economy stocks, purchasing shares of DoorDash (DASH) while selling Flex Ltd (FLEX). Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar doubled down on Carrier Global (CARR) with two separate purchases, while selling activity included Rep. Greg Stanton disposing of Trulieve Cannabis (TCNNF) and Rep. April Delaney exiting Morningstar (MORN).

DASH DoorDash, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -11.2% 3M -15.1% 1Y -22.4%

Rep. Gilbert Cisneros (Gilbert Cisneros) • $1,001 - $15,000

CARR Carrier Global Corporation ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D -3.4% 3M -2.3% 1Y -10.1%

Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (Maria Elvira Salazar) • $1,001 - $15,000

CARR Carrier Global Corporation ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D -3.4% 3M -2.3% 1Y -10.1%

Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (Maria Elvira Salazar) • $15,001 - $50,000

TCNNF Trulieve Cannabis Corp. ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -15.1% 3M +27.9% 1Y +93.3%

Rep. Greg Stanton (Greg Stanton) • $15,001 - $50,000

FLEX Flex Ltd. ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +6.7% 3M +121.8% 1Y +251.8%

Rep. Gilbert Cisneros (Gilbert Cisneros) • $1,001 - $15,000

MORN Morningstar, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

- Selling Falling Stock 5D -0.9% 3M +7.0% 1Y -46.1%

Rep. April Delaney (April Delaney) • $1,001 - $15,000

Seven insiders at RSG, six at NOMD, and eight at PRIM have purchased shares or received awards in coordinated activity. On the distribution side, 44 insiders at CVNA sold $1.9B in stock, while CRWV saw 379 insiders offload $1.6B in shares, and 18 insiders at LTH disposed of $735.7M.

RSG Republic Services, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +2.0% 3M -9.9% 1Y -15.2%

7 insiders • $100.5M

NOMD Nomad Foods Limited ⭐ INSIDER

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -8.4% 3M -29.4% 1Y -50.0%

6 insiders • $96.4M

PRIM Primoris Services Corporation ⭐ INSIDER

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +11.6% 3M -31.8% 1Y +59.6%

8 insiders • $80.4M

CVNA Carvana Co. ⭐ INSIDER

- Selling Falling Stock 5D -10.2% 3M -80.8% 1Y -75.0%

44 insiders • $1.9B

CRWV CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -19.3% 3M +17.0% 1Y +90.3%

379 insiders • $1.6B

LTH Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +0.6% 3M +13.8% 1Y +14.1%

18 insiders • $735.7M

Eighty-four companies report earnings today, with AMAT and BABA showing recent accumulation activity ahead of their prints, while NU and HMC have experienced distribution from smart money positions. Yesterday's session saw significant volatility with EOSE surging 26.6% while WIX and EYE each dropped more than 25%. Eleven companies are scheduled to report tomorrow.