Know What They Know
π· PIG ROAST
π¬ Word on the Street
While Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-FL) quietly added Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) worth up to $50,000, 44 insiders at Carvana Co. (CVNA) stampeded for the exits with $1.9 billion in salesβthe kind of lopsided action that makes you wonder who knows something the rest of us don't. Meanwhile, Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) proved that Wall Street's favorite earnings formula is now "beat by pennies, slash thousands of jobs, watch shares rocket 13%," and some defense play called Ondas Holdings Inc. (ONDS) is apparently up 1,197% in a year because the drone-hunting business is booming. Here's what smart money is doing today.
The Big Idea: When insiders, institutions, AND politicians all bet on the same stock? That's convergence β and historically, these aligned signals tend to pack more punch than solo moves. We track the smart money so you don't have to.
ETF Institutional funds adding/removing positions
INSIDER Corporate executives buying/selling their own stock
CONGRESS Politicians making trades (yes, we see you)
β² + Buying Rising Stock: Smart money accumulating as price rises β ideal alignment
+ Buying Falling Stock: Smart money accumulating while price drops β falling knife risk
β² - Selling Rising Stock: Smart money exiting while price still rising β warning signal
- Selling Falling Stock: Smart money exiting as price drops β confirms downtrend
The Bottom Line: Convergence + aligned momentum = strongest setups. Convergence + divergent momentum = proceed with caution. This isn't financial advice β it's intelligence. What you do with it is on you.
META
Meta Platforms, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
NOW
ServiceNow, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
ALKT
Alkami Technology, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
CRM
Salesforce, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
KO
The Coca-Cola Company
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
ABT
Abbott Laboratories
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
RTX
RTX Corporation
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
JNJ
Johnson & Johnson
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
HON
Honeywell International Inc.
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
The VIX remains in normal territory at 17.87 with a modest 2.8% weekly increase, suggesting equity market participants are maintaining relatively calm expectations for near-term price swings. However, the MOVE index surged 51.0% week-over-week to 20.92, indicating a notable divergence as bond market volatility expectations increased sharply despite remaining at historically low absolute levels. This split between equity and fixed income volatility measures reflects differing risk perceptions across asset classes, with Treasury traders pricing in greater uncertainty than their equity counterparts.
Market leadership remains concentrated in a narrow band of technology-related sectors, with Semiconductors, Real Estate, and Technology showing the strongest relative performance while defensive areas like Healthcare and Utilities lag significantly. The breadth picture reveals a split market, as the Nasdaq composite shows slightly better participation at 52% compared to the S&P 500's 46% and Dow's 43%, though Transportation stands out with notably stronger breadth at 63%. This configuration suggests momentum is clustered in growth-oriented names rather than distributed broadly across the market, creating a performance gap between leading technology sectors and the rest of the equity landscape.
As of May 13, Fed net liquidity stands at $6.73 trillion, up $19.0 billion week-over-week, indicating an expansion in system liquidity that historically correlates with supportive conditions for risk assets. The next H.4.1 release drops Thursday, May 21, which will reveal whether this liquidity injection continues or reverses.
Yesterday's data painted a mixed picture as retail sales met expectations at 0.5% but showed continued deceleration from March's 1.6% pace, while import prices surged to 1.9% versus the 1.0% estimateβthe largest monthly gain since March 2022βraising fresh concerns about tariff-driven inflation feeding through to consumer prices. Initial jobless claims rose to 211K from 199K, missing the 205K estimate and marking the highest level since late April, though the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker still upgraded Q2 growth expectations to 4.0% from 3.7% on the strength of inventory accumulation which posted its largest gain since July 2022 at 0.9%. Today's focus shifts to Industrial Production, where estimates call for a 0.3% rebound from April's -0.5% contraction, and the CFTC positioning data which showed short positioning in S&P 500 futures at -103.9K contracts last week as traders await any shift in sentiment following this week's market volatility.
Institutional flows this period showed technology sector churn, with META attracting 5,122 ETFs adding positions while simultaneously seeing 2,929 reduce exposure, and INTC drawing 4,889 new positions against 2,381 exits. The balanced 10-to-10 add/remove ratio across all positions suggests sector rotation within tech and healthcare rather than broad directional conviction, as funds repositioned among mega-cap names like CSCO and LLY.
META
Meta Platforms, Inc.
β
INTC
Intel Corporation
β
CSCO
Cisco Systems, Inc.
β
JNJ
Johnson & Johnson
β
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
β
META
Meta Platforms, Inc.
β
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
β
INTC
Intel Corporation
β
JNJ
Johnson & Johnson
β
NFLX
Netflix, Inc.
β
# Congressional Trading Activity Recent congressional disclosures show Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar made two separate purchases of CARR (Carrier Global), while Rep. Gilbert Cisneros both purchased DASH (DoorDash) and sold FLEX (Flex Ltd). On the sell side, Rep. Greg Stanton disposed of TCNNF (Trulieve Cannabis) and Rep. April Delaney exited a position in MORN (Morningstar).
CARR
Carrier Global Corporation
β
CONGRESS
CARR
Carrier Global Corporation
β
CONGRESS
DASH
DoorDash, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
FIHBX
Federated Hermes Institutional High Yield Bond Fund Institutional Shares
β
CONGRESS
MKL
Markel Corporation
β
CONGRESS
TCNNF
Trulieve Cannabis Corp.
β
CONGRESS
FLEX
Flex Ltd.
β
CONGRESS
MORN
Morningstar, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
SCI
Service Corporation International
β
CONGRESS
CLH
Clean Harbors, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
Significant cluster selling occurred at CVNA where 44 insiders sold $1.9B in stock and at CRWV where 387 insiders sold $1.6B, representing coordinated insider distribution at both companies. On the accumulation side, 12 insiders purchased or received awards at ALKT while 7 insiders added positions at RSG, showing concentrated buying activity among corporate insiders at these firms.
ALKT
Alkami Technology, Inc.
β
INSIDER
RSG
Republic Services, Inc.
β
INSIDER
NOMD
Nomad Foods Limited
β
INSIDER
ARTV
Artiva Biotherapeutics, Inc.
β
INSIDER
AMGN
Amgen Inc.
β
INSIDER
CVNA
Carvana Co.
β
INSIDER
CRWV
CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock
β
INSIDER
LTH
Life Time Group Holdings, Inc.
β
INSIDER
JHG
Janus Henderson Group plc
β
INSIDER
CRGY
Crescent Energy Company
β
INSIDER
Earnings Preview: 16 companies report today, with institutional money showing accumulation in MFG and RBC ahead of their results, while LFT-PA has seen recent distribution activity. Yesterday's session saw significant moves in POET, which surged 114.7%, alongside gains in LUNR and FRMI. Another 16 companies are scheduled to report tomorrow as the earnings calendar remains active.
POET
POET Technologies Inc.
β
BEAT
+114.7%
LUNR
Intuitive Machines, Inc.
β
MISS
+51.5%
FRMI
Fermi Inc. Common Stock
β
MISS
+44.0%
NNAVW
NextNav Inc.
β
BEAT
+30.3%
NIQ
NIQ Global Intelligence Plc
β
BEAT
-26.8%
GLOB
Globant S.A.
β
MET
-16.9%
AYA
Aya Gold & Silver Inc. Common Shares
β
MISS
+14.8%
NN
NextNav Inc.
β
BEAT
+13.7%
UAMY
United States Antimony Corporation
β
MISS
-13.2%
STNE
StoneCo Ltd.
β
BEAT
-12.3%
MFG
Mizuho Financial Group, Inc.
β
RBC
RBC Bearings Incorporated
β
FPS
Forgent Power Solutions, Inc.
β
OXLCN
Oxford Lane Capital Corp.
β
LGN
Legence Corp. Class A Common stock
β
MANE
Veradermics, Incorporated
β
SEAL-PB
Seapeak LLC
β
OXLCO
Oxford Lane Capital Corp.
β
SGML
Sigma Lithium Corporation
β
USAS
Americas Gold and Silver Corporation
β
KALV
KalVista Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
β
WYFI
WhiteFiber, Inc. Ordinary Shares
β
BPYPP
Brookfield Property Partners L.P.
β
ATH-PD
Athene Holding Ltd.
β
ELE
Elemental Royalty Corporation Common Stock
β
NBIS
Nebius Group N.V.
β
BIDU
Baidu, Inc.
β
OXLCP
Oxford Lane Capital Corp.
β
RGTIW
Rigetti Computing, Inc.
β
ANAB
AnaptysBio, Inc.
β
RNW
ReNew Energy Global Plc
β
NAK
Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd.
β
YALA
Yalla Group Limited
β
OXLC
Oxford Lane Capital Corp.
β
TCOM
Trip.com Group Limited
β
Smart money flows are revealing a technology sector in transition as institutional investors reposition rather than exit, with Meta Platforms (META) drawing 5,122 ETFs adding positions while 2,929 reduced exposure, and Intel Corporation (INTC) attracting 4,889 new positions against 2,381 exits. The balanced 10-to-10 add/remove ratio across institutional holdings suggests rotation within technology and healthcare rather than directional conviction, as funds shuffle among mega-cap names like Cisco Systems (CSCO) and Eli Lilly (LLY). Congressional activity remained selective this period, with Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar making two separate purchases of Carrier Global (CARR), while Rep. Gilbert Cisneros both purchased DoorDash (DASH) and sold Flex Ltd (FLEX), and Rep. Greg Stanton disposed of Trulieve Cannabis (TCNNF) alongside Rep. April Delaney's exit from Morningstar (MORN). Meanwhile, insider selling reached significant scale with 44 insiders distributing $1.9 billion in Carvana (CVNA) stock and 387 insiders selling $1.6 billion at Crown Vantage (CRWV), contrasting with concentrated accumulation where 12 insiders purchased or received awards at Alkami Technology (ALKT) and 7 insiders added positions at Republic Services (RSG). Market leadership remains stubbornly concentrated in a narrow technology-driven band, with Semiconductors, Real Estate, and Technology sectors showing the strongest relative performance while defensive Healthcare and Utilities lag significantly behind. The breadth picture tells a story of market bifurcation, as the Nasdaq composite shows marginally better participation at 52 percent compared to the S&P 500's 46 percent and the Dow's 43 percent, though Transportation stands out with notably stronger breadth at 63 percent. This configuration creates a performance gap between leading growth-oriented names and the broader equity landscape, while volatility measures are sending divergent signals as the VIX holds steady in normal territory at 17.87 with a modest 2.8 percent weekly increase even as the MOVE index surged 51.0 percent week-over-week to 20.92, reflecting heightened uncertainty expectations in Treasury markets that equity traders have yet to acknowledge. Today's Industrial Production data takes center stage with estimates calling for a 0.3 percent rebound from April's negative 0.5 percent contraction, arriving as yesterday's import price surge to 1.9 percent versus the 1.0 percent estimate marked the largest monthly gain since March 2022 and raised fresh concerns about tariff-driven inflation feeding through to consumer prices. Initial jobless claims rising to 211,000 from 199,000 and missing the 205,000 estimate marked the highest level since late April, though the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker still upgraded Q2 growth expectations to 4.0 percent from 3.7 percent on inventory accumulation strength. With 16 companies reporting earnings today where institutional money has accumulated in Mizuho
Key themes: Watch convergence signals closely. Stocks where insiders, institutions, and politicians agree tend to show stronger directional moves.