The Edge

🐷 PIG ROAST

💬 Word on the Street

While Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-FL) quietly added Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) worth up to $50,000, 44 insiders at Carvana Co. (CVNA) stampeded for the exits with $1.9 billion in sales—the kind of lopsided action that makes you wonder who knows something the rest of us don't. Meanwhile, Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) proved that Wall Street's favorite earnings formula is now "beat by pennies, slash thousands of jobs, watch shares rocket 13%," and some defense play called Ondas Holdings Inc. (ONDS) is apparently up 1,197% in a year because the drone-hunting business is booming. Here's what smart money is doing today.

The VIX remains in normal territory at 17.87 with a modest 2.8% weekly increase, suggesting equity market participants are maintaining relatively calm expectations for near-term price swings. However, the MOVE index surged 51.0% week-over-week to 20.92, indicating a notable divergence as bond market volatility expectations increased sharply despite remaining at historically low absolute levels. This split between equity and fixed income volatility measures reflects differing risk perceptions across asset classes, with Treasury traders pricing in greater uncertainty than their equity counterparts.

Market leadership remains concentrated in a narrow band of technology-related sectors, with Semiconductors, Real Estate, and Technology showing the strongest relative performance while defensive areas like Healthcare and Utilities lag significantly. The breadth picture reveals a split market, as the Nasdaq composite shows slightly better participation at 52% compared to the S&P 500's 46% and Dow's 43%, though Transportation stands out with notably stronger breadth at 63%. This configuration suggests momentum is clustered in growth-oriented names rather than distributed broadly across the market, creating a performance gap between leading technology sectors and the rest of the equity landscape.

As of May 13, Fed net liquidity stands at $6.73 trillion, up $19.0 billion week-over-week, indicating an expansion in system liquidity that historically correlates with supportive conditions for risk assets. The next H.4.1 release drops Thursday, May 21, which will reveal whether this liquidity injection continues or reverses.

Yesterday's data painted a mixed picture as retail sales met expectations at 0.5% but showed continued deceleration from March's 1.6% pace, while import prices surged to 1.9% versus the 1.0% estimate—the largest monthly gain since March 2022—raising fresh concerns about tariff-driven inflation feeding through to consumer prices. Initial jobless claims rose to 211K from 199K, missing the 205K estimate and marking the highest level since late April, though the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker still upgraded Q2 growth expectations to 4.0% from 3.7% on the strength of inventory accumulation which posted its largest gain since July 2022 at 0.9%. Today's focus shifts to Industrial Production, where estimates call for a 0.3% rebound from April's -0.5% contraction, and the CFTC positioning data which showed short positioning in S&P 500 futures at -103.9K contracts last week as traders await any shift in sentiment following this week's market volatility.

Institutional flows this period showed technology sector churn, with META attracting 5,122 ETFs adding positions while simultaneously seeing 2,929 reduce exposure, and INTC drawing 4,889 new positions against 2,381 exits. The balanced 10-to-10 add/remove ratio across all positions suggests sector rotation within tech and healthcare rather than broad directional conviction, as funds repositioned among mega-cap names like CSCO and LLY.

META Meta Platforms, Inc. ⭐

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +0.3% 3M -4.8% 1Y -5.5%

5122 ETFs • 0 shares

INTC Intel Corporation ⭐

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +5.8% 3M +149.4% 1Y +413.9%

4889 ETFs • 0 shares

CSCO Cisco Systems, Inc. ⭐

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +25.4% 3M +54.0% 1Y +89.3%

4717 ETFs • 0 shares

META Meta Platforms, Inc. ⭐

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +0.3% 3M -4.8% 1Y -5.5%

2929 ETFs • 0 shares

LLY Eli Lilly and Company ⭐

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +3.4% 3M -2.8% 1Y +35.9%

2684 ETFs • 0 shares

INTC Intel Corporation ⭐

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +5.8% 3M +149.4% 1Y +413.9%

2381 ETFs • 0 shares

# Congressional Trading Activity Recent congressional disclosures show Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar made two separate purchases of CARR (Carrier Global), while Rep. Gilbert Cisneros both purchased DASH (DoorDash) and sold FLEX (Flex Ltd). On the sell side, Rep. Greg Stanton disposed of TCNNF (Trulieve Cannabis) and Rep. April Delaney exited a position in MORN (Morningstar).

CARR Carrier Global Corporation ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D -0.7% 3M +2.9% 1Y -10.0%

Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (Maria Elvira Salazar) • $15,001 - $50,000

CARR Carrier Global Corporation ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D -0.7% 3M +2.9% 1Y -10.0%

Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (Maria Elvira Salazar) • $1,001 - $15,000

DASH DoorDash, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -10.3% 3M -4.6% 1Y -22.3%

Rep. Gilbert Cisneros (Gilbert Cisneros) • $1,001 - $15,000

TCNNF Trulieve Cannabis Corp. ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -14.4% 3M +28.5% 1Y +78.4%

Rep. Greg Stanton (Greg Stanton) • $15,001 - $50,000

FLEX Flex Ltd. ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +8.0% 3M +129.4% 1Y +243.1%

Rep. Gilbert Cisneros (Gilbert Cisneros) • $1,001 - $15,000

MORN Morningstar, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

- Selling Falling Stock 5D -6.7% 3M +7.8% 1Y -45.8%

Rep. April Delaney (April Delaney) • $1,001 - $15,000

Significant cluster selling occurred at CVNA where 44 insiders sold $1.9B in stock and at CRWV where 387 insiders sold $1.6B, representing coordinated insider distribution at both companies. On the accumulation side, 12 insiders purchased or received awards at ALKT while 7 insiders added positions at RSG, showing concentrated buying activity among corporate insiders at these firms.

ALKT Alkami Technology, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D -4.7% 3M +4.1% 1Y -46.7%

12 insiders • $135.2M

RSG Republic Services, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +3.5% 3M -5.5% 1Y -11.9%

7 insiders • $100.5M

NOMD Nomad Foods Limited ⭐ INSIDER

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -1.7% 3M -23.4% 1Y -45.5%

6 insiders • $96.4M

CVNA Carvana Co. ⭐ INSIDER

- Selling Falling Stock 5D -13.1% 3M -79.8% 1Y -76.3%

44 insiders • $1.9B

CRWV CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -11.3% 3M +19.4% 1Y +80.6%

387 insiders • $1.6B

LTH Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +4.8% 3M +15.2% 1Y +13.0%

18 insiders • $735.7M

Earnings Preview: 16 companies report today, with institutional money showing accumulation in MFG and RBC ahead of their results, while LFT-PA has seen recent distribution activity. Yesterday's session saw significant moves in POET, which surged 114.7%, alongside gains in LUNR and FRMI. Another 16 companies are scheduled to report tomorrow as the earnings calendar remains active.