The Edge

🐷 PIG ROAST

💬 Word on the Street

While Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-FL) quietly added up to $50,000 in Carrier Global (CARR) shares, insiders at Crown Electrokinetics (CRWV) stampeded for the exits with $1.3 billion in sales—part of a brutal $4.4 billion net outflow as smart money turned decisively bearish. Meanwhile, after hours, SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG) and Enphase Energy (ENPH) are suddenly the talk of Wall Street again, with SolarEdge up 244% over the past year and Enphase pivoting to power AI data centers in what looks like the energy sector's latest plot twist. Here's what smart money did with their actual dollars today.

Market volatility indicators are presenting a mixed picture, with the VIX holding steady at 17.26 in the normal range despite a modest 1.1% weekly increase, suggesting equity market participants remain relatively calm. In contrast, the MOVE index surged 42.6% over the week to 19.90, signaling a notable pickup in bond market volatility expectations even though absolute levels remain low by historical standards. This divergence between equity and fixed income volatility measures indicates that bond traders are pricing in increased uncertainty around interest rate movements while stock market fear gauges show little sign of stress.

Market breadth shows a narrow leadership pattern, with the Nasdaq demonstrating relatively stronger participation at 52% compared to the S&P 500's 46% and Dow's 43%. Semiconductors, Real Estate, and Technology sectors are leading with participation rates between 71-100%, while defensive areas including Healthcare, Consumer Discretionary, and Utilities significantly lag with participation under 30%. The transportation index stands out with 64% breadth, creating a divergence from the broader market indices and suggesting uneven participation across the equity landscape.

As of May 13, Fed net liquidity stands at $6.73 trillion, up $19.0 billion week-over-week, indicating an expansion in available liquidity that historically correlates with supportive conditions for risk assets. The next H.4.1 release drops Thursday, May 21, which will show whether this liquidity expansion continues or reverses.

Yesterday's manufacturing data delivered meaningful upside surprises, with the NY Empire State Index surging to 19.6 versus expectations of 7.5—its strongest reading since late 2023—while Industrial Production rose 0.7% against a 0.3% forecast, reversing the prior month's contraction and suggesting factory activity is stabilizing after months of softness. Positioning data showed speculators extended their net short stance on the S&P 500 to -143.8K contracts from -103.9K, the most bearish posture since early 2024, while Nasdaq 100 positioning flipped negative to -16.0K from a small net long of 1.2K, reflecting growing caution despite strong economic prints. Today's housing market sentiment gauge and tomorrow's housing starts and permits data come into focus as the sector remains depressed, with permits at 1.422 million units in March still hovering near cyclical lows last seen consistently during the 2008-2011 period, while Fed Governor Waller's speech tomorrow could provide clues on the central bank's reaction function given the recent string of firmer activity data pushing the Economic Surprise Index back into positive territory at +1.0.

Institutional flows show a notable rotation into technology names, with META attracting additions from 5,907 ETFs despite 3,228 removals, while INTC and CSCO also saw substantial position increases at 5,648 and 5,421 ETFs respectively. The activity reflects a broader rebalancing within tech and semiconductors, as LLY's 2,897 ETF removals suggest concurrent profit-taking in large-cap pharmaceuticals.

META Meta Platforms, Inc. ⭐

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +0.8% 3M -4.0% 1Y -6.6%

5907 ETFs • 0 shares

INTC Intel Corporation ⭐

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D -12.9% 3M +132.5% 1Y +405.4%

5648 ETFs • 0 shares

CSCO Cisco Systems, Inc. ⭐

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +22.4% 3M +53.8% 1Y +95.2%

5421 ETFs • 0 shares

META Meta Platforms, Inc. ⭐

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +0.8% 3M -4.0% 1Y -6.6%

3228 ETFs • 0 shares

LLY Eli Lilly and Company ⭐

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +6.1% 3M -3.4% 1Y +41.2%

2897 ETFs • 0 shares

INTC Intel Corporation ⭐

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -12.9% 3M +132.5% 1Y +405.4%

2719 ETFs • 0 shares

# Congressional Trading Activity Recent congressional disclosures show Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar made two separate purchases of CARR (Carrier Global Corporation), while Rep. Gilbert Cisneros both purchased DASH (DoorDash) and sold FLEX (Flex Ltd.) in the same period. On the sell side, Rep. Greg Stanton divested from TCNNF (Trulieve Cannabis Corp.) and Rep. April Delaney reduced her position in MORN (Morningstar Inc.), with no other discernible sector patterns emerging from this reporting period.

CARR Carrier Global Corporation ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D -3.2% 3M -1.1% 1Y -11.2%

Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (Maria Elvira Salazar) • $15,001 - $50,000

DASH DoorDash, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -2.9% 3M -0.7% 1Y -19.1%

Rep. Gilbert Cisneros (Gilbert Cisneros) • $1,001 - $15,000

CARR Carrier Global Corporation ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D -3.2% 3M -1.1% 1Y -11.2%

Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (Maria Elvira Salazar) • $1,001 - $15,000

TCNNF Trulieve Cannabis Corp. ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -17.5% 3M +13.3% 1Y +62.0%

Rep. Greg Stanton (Greg Stanton) • $15,001 - $50,000

FLEX Flex Ltd. ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -3.0% 3M +114.6% 1Y +227.8%

Rep. Gilbert Cisneros (Gilbert Cisneros) • $1,001 - $15,000

MORN Morningstar, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

- Selling Falling Stock 5D -3.8% 3M +6.3% 1Y -44.3%

Rep. April Delaney (April Delaney) • $1,001 - $15,000

Multiple insiders accumulated shares at ALKT (12 insiders), RSG (7 insiders), and NOMD (7 insiders) during the reporting period. On the distribution side, CRWV saw the largest cluster with 342 insiders selling approximately $1.3B in shares, followed by LTH with 18 insiders disposing of $735.7M.

ALKT Alkami Technology, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D -7.6% 3M +2.1% 1Y -46.0%

12 insiders • $135.2M

RSG Republic Services, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +4.2% 3M -6.6% 1Y -12.0%

7 insiders • $100.5M

NOMD Nomad Foods Limited ⭐ INSIDER

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +5.7% 3M -24.0% 1Y -43.8%

7 insiders • $97.3M

CRWV CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -6.0% 3M +11.7% 1Y +59.1%

342 insiders • $1.3B

LTH Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +5.6% 3M +16.0% 1Y +15.2%

18 insiders • $735.7M

JHG Janus Henderson Group plc ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +0.0% 3M +5.4% 1Y +37.3%

2 insiders • $641.2M

Twenty-eight companies report earnings today, with institutional activity showing contrasting signals ahead of results. NBIS and BIDU have experienced recent accumulation by large investors, while RYAAY and BRC have seen distribution patterns indicating institutional position reduction. Yesterday's session saw significant moves in SGML, which declined 22.3%, and RBC, which dropped 6.0%.