The Edge

🐷 PIG ROAST

💬 Word on the Street

While Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-FL) quietly added $15,001 to $50,000 in Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) to her portfolio, the real action happened after hours where Dominion Energy Inc. (D) surged 9% on NextEra Energy Inc. (NEE) merger speculation and Roblox Corporation (RBLX) bounced 10% despite being down 42% year-to-date. Smart money dumped a net $4.2 billion today—with CRWV insiders alone unloading $839.8 million—while the VIX jumped 7.2% to 18.4, suggesting someone knows something the rest of us don't. Here's what smart money actually did with their capital today.

Market volatility gauges present a mixed picture this week, with equity volatility remaining in normal territory as the VIX sits at 18.43, reflecting a modest 7.2% weekly increase that suggests neither complacency nor significant fear among stock traders. In contrast, bond market volatility surged dramatically, with the MOVE index jumping 31.4% week-over-week to 18.44, indicating growing uncertainty in fixed income markets despite absolute levels remaining historically low. The divergence between relatively calm equity volatility and rapidly rising bond volatility suggests investors are pricing in increased uncertainty around interest rate movements while maintaining relatively steady expectations for stock price swings.

Market breadth remains mixed with major indices showing participation rates below 50%, though transportation stocks demonstrate relatively stronger internal momentum at 62%. Semiconductors, Real Estate, and Energy are exhibiting clear relative strength with participation above 70%, while defensive sectors including Healthcare and Utilities are lagging significantly with participation below 30%. This performance pattern suggests a risk-on environment in specific growth and cyclical areas, though the weak overall breadth across broader market indices indicates selective rather than broad-based strength.

As of May 13, Fed net liquidity stood at $6.73 trillion, down $19.0 billion from the prior week, marking a reduction in the liquidity available to flow into risk assets. The next H.4.1 release drops Thursday, May 21, which will show whether this tightening trend continues or reverses—a key metric institutional traders watch for shifts in market conditions.

The NAHB Housing Market Index climbed to 37.0 in May, beating estimates of 35.0 and marking its third consecutive monthly gain, though the index remains deeply in contractionary territory below 50 where it has been stuck since late 2022 amid elevated mortgage rates. Net long-term TIC flows jumped to $81.3B in March from $57.0B in February, reflecting continued foreign appetite for U.S. assets as Treasury yields have remained elevated. Market focus today shifts to April housing starts and building permits data, with traders watching for confirmation of housing stabilization after permits hit a one-year low of 1.422 million in March, while tomorrow's FOMC minutes will be parsed for any signals on the Fed's rate path as the Economic Surprise Index has ticked up to +0.9, its highest level in three weeks.

Institutional positioning through ETFs showed a notable rotation into mega-cap technology names during the period, with META attracting additions from 5,253 funds while INTC and CSCO drew 5,069 and 4,791 new positions respectively, even as sentiment remained divided with significant removal activity across the same names. The flow pattern suggests institutions rebalanced within technology and communication services sectors, with healthcare name LLY seeing notable position reductions from 2,628 funds amid the broader tech-focused repositioning.

META Meta Platforms, Inc. ⭐

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +2.1% 3M -4.4% 1Y -4.9%

5253 ETFs • 0 shares

INTC Intel Corporation ⭐

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D -16.4% 3M +134.2% 1Y +401.9%

5069 ETFs • 0 shares

CSCO Cisco Systems, Inc. ⭐

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +20.4% 3M +54.7% 1Y +87.2%

4791 ETFs • 0 shares

META Meta Platforms, Inc. ⭐

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +2.1% 3M -4.4% 1Y -4.9%

2936 ETFs • 0 shares

INTC Intel Corporation ⭐

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -16.4% 3M +134.2% 1Y +401.9%

2645 ETFs • 0 shares

LLY Eli Lilly and Company ⭐

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +2.4% 3M -4.6% 1Y +35.5%

2628 ETFs • 0 shares

Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar made multiple purchases of CARR shares, while Rep. Gilbert Cisneros added a position in DASH during the reporting period. Rep. Dwight Evans reduced holdings across multiple positions, selling AMT, INTC, and TMO.

CARR Carrier Global Corporation ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D -2.1% 3M -2.9% 1Y -11.6%

Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (Maria Elvira Salazar) • $15,001 - $50,000

DASH DoorDash, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +3.4% 3M +0.2% 1Y -17.5%

Rep. Gilbert Cisneros (Gilbert Cisneros) • $1,001 - $15,000

CARR Carrier Global Corporation ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D -2.1% 3M -2.9% 1Y -11.6%

Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (Maria Elvira Salazar) • $1,001 - $15,000

AMT American Tower Corporation ⭐ CONGRESS

- Selling Falling Stock 5D -0.1% 3M -8.2% 1Y -14.8%

Rep. Dwight Evans (Dwight Evans) • $1,001 - $15,000

INTC Intel Corporation ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -16.4% 3M +134.2% 1Y +401.9%

Rep. Dwight Evans (Dwight Evans) • $1,001 - $15,000

TMO Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

- Selling Falling Stock 5D -2.3% 3M -11.9% 1Y +9.4%

Rep. Dwight Evans (Dwight Evans) • $1,001 - $15,000

Recent insider filings show concentrated buying activity at RSG with 21 insiders making purchases, followed by 10 insiders at ALKT and 9 at NOMD. On the selling side, CRWV recorded the most significant cluster with 265 insiders disposing of shares totaling $839.8M, while LTH saw 18 insiders sell $735.7M in holdings.

RSG Republic Services, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +8.5% 3M -3.0% 1Y -11.9%

21 insiders • $202.4M

ALKT Alkami Technology, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D -1.3% 3M +4.4% 1Y -44.3%

10 insiders • $117.5M

NOMD Nomad Foods Limited ⭐ INSIDER

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +10.1% 3M -19.2% 1Y -42.2%

9 insiders • $98.9M

CRWV CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -9.5% 3M +14.0% 1Y +57.8%

265 insiders • $839.8M

LTH Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +2.8% 3M +14.3% 1Y +15.4%

18 insiders • $735.7M

JHG Janus Henderson Group plc ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +0.3% 3M +4.7% 1Y +37.5%

2 insiders • $641.2M

Thirty-one companies report earnings today, with notable activity in PANW and KEYS showing recent accumulation signals ahead of their prints, while HD and AMRZ have experienced distribution. Yesterday's session saw BRC surge 10.4% while BIDU dropped 5.5%. Tomorrow's calendar includes 30 additional reports as the earnings season continues.