Know What They Know
π· PIG ROAST
π¬ Word on the Street
Rep. William R. Keating (D-MA) quietly added JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) while insiders at Janus Henderson Group Plc (JHG) unloaded $641.2 million in stockβand that's just the appetizer before we get to Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB) insiders dumping $60 million worth of shares while retail traders chase optical networking fever dreams. Smart money moved $5.1 billion toward the exits today against just $932.9 million in purchases, leaving a $4.2 billion net outflow that tells a very different story than the headlines. Here's what smart money is doing today.
The Big Idea: When insiders, institutions, AND politicians all bet on the same stock? That's convergence β and historically, these aligned signals tend to pack more punch than solo moves. We track the smart money so you don't have to.
ETF Institutional funds adding/removing positions
INSIDER Corporate executives buying/selling their own stock
CONGRESS Politicians making trades (yes, we see you)
β² + Buying Rising Stock: Smart money accumulating as price rises β ideal alignment
+ Buying Falling Stock: Smart money accumulating while price drops β falling knife risk
β² - Selling Rising Stock: Smart money exiting while price still rising β warning signal
- Selling Falling Stock: Smart money exiting as price drops β confirms downtrend
The Bottom Line: Convergence + aligned momentum = strongest setups. Convergence + divergent momentum = proceed with caution. This isn't financial advice β it's intelligence. What you do with it is on you.
IFF
International Flavors & Fragrances Inc.
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
PANW
Palo Alto Networks, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
HTGC
Hercules Capital, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
HBAN
Huntington Bancshares Incorporated
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
GPN
Global Payments Inc.
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
CARR
Carrier Global Corporation
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
BA
The Boeing Company
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
WAT
Waters Corporation
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
IBM
International Business Machines Corporation
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
APG
APi Group Corporation
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
Equity volatility remains in normal territory with the VIX at 17.82, declining 3.0% week-over-week, suggesting relatively calm expectations for stock market movements in the near term. However, bond market volatility tells a different story, with the MOVE index surging 47.1% to 22.20, indicating heightened uncertainty around interest rate movements despite remaining at historically low absolute levels. This divergence between equity and fixed income volatility gauges reflects contrasting investor sentiment across asset classes, with bond traders pricing in more potential turbulence than their equity counterparts.
The market is displaying narrow leadership with semiconductors, real estate, and technology showing the strongest momentum at 96%, 74%, and 73% respectively, while healthcare, consumer discretionary, and utilities lag significantly below 35%. Index breadth remains relatively weak across major benchmarks, with SPY at 45% and DIA at 47%, though QQQ shows marginally better participation at 54% and transports register 60%. This concentration in a handful of sectors alongside modest overall breadth suggests gains are being driven by a limited number of stocks rather than broad market participation.
As of May 13, Fed net liquidity stands at $6.73 trillion, up $19.0 billion week-over-week, with the next H.4.1 release scheduled for Thursday, May 21. The $19 billion weekly increase in liquidity typically correlates with easier financial conditions, as more liquidity in the system has historically reduced pressure on asset prices and supported risk appetite across equity and credit markets.
Pending home sales showed unexpected strength in April with year-over-year growth of 3.2% against expectations of a -0.5% decline, marking the first positive annual reading since early 2023 and suggesting mortgage rates in the mid-6% range may finally be bringing buyers off the sidelines. The API reported a larger-than-expected crude draw of 9.1 million barrels versus the 3.4 million estimate, with markets now watching today's official EIA data and FOMC minutes for clues on whether recent inflation stickiness will delay rate cutsβthe minutes particularly important given the Fed's ongoing internal debate about how long to maintain restrictive policy. Tomorrow's housing data presents a potential reality check with starts expected to decline 3.5% after April's 10.8% surge, while the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index is forecast to cool sharply from 26.7 to 18.0, which would still represent solid expansion but suggest some momentum loss in the industrial sector.
Institutional flows this period show ETFs gravitating toward cyclical exposure, with semiconductors drawing the heaviest activity as 5,782 funds added Micron and 5,307 added Intel, while industrial names like Caterpillar attracted 4,206 new positions. The bifurcated positioningβwith roughly equal numbers of ETFs entering and exiting the same namesβsuggests active rotation within sectors rather than broad directional conviction, particularly evident in the chip space where MU saw 3,093 funds reduce alongside its buyers.
MU
Micron Technology, Inc.
β
INTC
Intel Corporation
β
CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
β
PANW
Palo Alto Networks, Inc.
β
IBM
International Business Machines Corporation
β
MU
Micron Technology, Inc.
β
INTC
Intel Corporation
β
PANW
Palo Alto Networks, Inc.
β
CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
β
NOW
ServiceNow, Inc.
β
Rep. William R. Keating recently purchased positions in JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Simon Property Group (SPG), and VMware (VMW), while Rep. Dwight Evans sold holdings in American Tower (AMT), Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), and Quanta Services (PWR). The trades show one member adding exposure to financial services, commercial real estate, and technology infrastructure, while another reduced positions across cell tower REITs, life sciences equipment, and specialty contractors.
JPM
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
β
CONGRESS
SPG
Simon Property Group, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
VMW
VMware, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
NOC
Northrop Grumman Corporation
β
CONGRESS
SJM
The J. M. Smucker Company
β
CONGRESS
AMT
American Tower Corporation
β
CONGRESS
TMO
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.
β
CONGRESS
PWR
Quanta Services, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
INTC
Intel Corporation
β
CONGRESS
CPB
Campbell Soup Company
β
CONGRESS
Republic Services saw coordinated activity with 21 insiders receiving awards, while Nomad Foods had 9 insiders participate in purchases during the period. On the distribution side, Crown Castle recorded the highest individual transaction count with 194 insiders selling positions totaling $574.5M, followed by DigitalOcean where 22 insiders reduced holdings valued at $561.3M.
RSG
Republic Services, Inc.
β
INSIDER
BXDC
Blackstone Digital Infrastructure Trust Inc.
β
INSIDER
NOMD
Nomad Foods Limited
β
INSIDER
ALKT
Alkami Technology, Inc.
β
INSIDER
BRCB
Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. Class A Common Stock
β
INSIDER
JHG
Janus Henderson Group plc
β
INSIDER
CRWV
CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock
β
INSIDER
DOCN
DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc.
β
INSIDER
LTH
Life Time Group Holdings, Inc.
β
INSIDER
SHC
Sotera Health Company
β
INSIDER
38 companies report earnings today, with notable accumulation signals appearing in NVDA and ADI ahead of their results. On the distribution side, TJX and LOW face their prints with recent institutional selling activity. Yesterday's session saw CMBT surge 9.6% and RERE gain 8.5%, while AMRZ dropped 7.8%.
CMBT
Cmb.Tech N.V.
β
BEAT
+9.6%
RERE
ATRenew Inc.
β
BEAT
+8.5%
AMRZ
Amrize Ltd
β
MISS
-7.8%
JHX
James Hardie Industries plc
β
BEAT
-7.6%
TOL
Toll Brothers, Inc.
β
BEAT
-7.6%
BILI
Bilibili Inc.
β
BEAT
-6.6%
HSAI
Hesai Group
β
BEAT
-6.4%
ZTO
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.
β
MISS
-5.3%
KEYS
Keysight Technologies, Inc.
β
BEAT
-4.8%
DRVN
Driven Brands Holdings Inc.
β
BEAT
+3.0%
NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation
β
ADI
Analog Devices, Inc.
β
ROIV
Roivant Sciences Ltd.
β
OXLCP
Oxford Lane Capital Corp.
β
OXLCN
Oxford Lane Capital Corp.
β
ICLR
ICON Public Limited Company
β
OXLCG
Oxford Lane Capital Corp. 7.95% Notes due 2032
β
ENS
EnerSys
β
BZ
Kanzhun Limited
β
GLNG
Golar LNG Limited
β
ATH-PA
Athene Holding Ltd.
β
CRVL
CorVel Corporation
β
SBLK
Star Bulk Carriers Corp.
β
CDLR
Cadeler A/S
β
OXLCO
Oxford Lane Capital Corp.
β
WMT
Walmart Inc.
β
MUFG
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc.
β
TTWO
Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc.
β
ZM
Zoom Communications, Inc.
β
BEKE
KE Holdings Inc.
β
YMM
Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.
β
STEP
StepStone Group Inc.
β
MRX
Marex Group plc Ordinary Shares
β
BTDR
Bitdeer Technologies Group
β
RAMP
LiveRamp Holdings, Inc.
β
Smart money flows reveal divergent positioning across different participant groups as institutional activity concentrates in cyclical sectors while corporate insiders execute significant distributions. On the institutional side, semiconductor exposure dominated ETF flows with 5,782 funds adding Micron and 5,307 adding Intel, though the simultaneous exit of 3,093 funds from Micron suggests active rotation rather than conviction. Caterpillar attracted 4,206 new institutional positions as funds positioned in industrials. Congressional activity showed Rep. William R. Keating establishing positions in JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Simon Property Group (SPG), and VMware (VMW), adding exposure to financials, commercial real estate, and technology infrastructure, while Rep. Dwight Evans reduced holdings in American Tower (AMT), Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), and Quanta Services (PWR). The insider landscape tilted heavily toward distribution, with Crown Castle recording 194 insiders selling positions totaling $574.5 million and DigitalOcean seeing 22 insiders reduce holdings valued at $561.3 million, though Republic Services saw coordinated activity with 21 insiders receiving awards and Nomad Foods had 9 insiders participating in purchases. Market structure reveals a narrow leadership dynamic with semiconductors, real estate, and technology displaying momentum readings of 96%, 74%, and 73% respectively, while healthcare, consumer discretionary, and utilities lag significantly below 35%. Index breadth remains relatively weak with SPY at 45% and DIA at 47%, though QQQ shows marginally better participation at 54%, suggesting gains are being driven by a limited number of stocks rather than broad market participation. The volatility landscape presents a notable divergence between asset classes, with the VIX declining 3.0% to 17.82 and signaling relatively calm expectations for equity movements, while the MOVE index surged 47.1% to 22.20, indicating heightened uncertainty around interest rate movements despite remaining at historically low absolute levels. This contrasting sentiment reflects bond traders pricing in more potential turbulence than their equity counterparts as markets digest persistent inflation readings and debate the Fed's restrictive policy timeline. Today's catalysts center on 38 earnings reports with notable accumulation signals appearing in NVDA and ADI ahead of their results, while TJX and LOW face their prints following recent institutional selling activity. The economic calendar brings the official EIA petroleum data after the API reported a larger-than-expected crude draw of 9.1 million barrels versus the 3.4 million estimate, alongside FOMC minutes that will be scrutinized for clues on how long the Fed intends to maintain restrictive policy given recent inflation stickiness. Pending home sales provided an upside surprise with 3.2% year-over-year growth against expectations of a -0.5% decline, marking the first positive annual reading since early 2023 and suggesting mortgage rates in the mid-6% range may be bringing buyers back to the market. Tomorrow's housing starts data presents a potential reality check with a 3.5% decline expected after April's 10.8% surge, while the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index is forecast to cool from
Key themes: Watch convergence signals closely. Stocks where insiders, institutions, and politicians agree tend to show stronger directional moves.